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The BC Context Looking for Opportunities: Biodiversity Adaptation and Carbon Conservation in British Columbia Photo: Andy Wright / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE. 2010 Rachel Holt, R.P.Bio, Ph.D. & Gregory Kehm, M.L.Arch Photo: BC Government.. Lac Du-Bois Grasslands Park Tides Canada Foundation & Wilburforce Foundation Photo: Ed Schnauzer. Muskwa River Valley Photo: Cristina Goettsch Mittermeier / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE. 2010. Great Bear Rainforest Photo: A.S.Wright / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE. 2010 Background Photo Credit: Jack Dykinga / iLCP. Taken on an iLCP RAVE 2010. Project Advisors Goal • Project Advisors: • Project is an investigation – sets a foundation for future work: • Looking for conservation and mitigation opportunities in BC at the strategic level. – In relation to climate change • Outcomes - Provide strategic guidance – Identify data and knowledge gaps – Recommendations for potential actions – Recommendations for next steps – Dave Secord (Tides Canada Foundation) – Ken Lertzman (Simon Fraser University) – Joel Clement (Wilburforce Foundation) • Science Advisory Team: – – – – – – – – – – – – Andy Mackinnon BC-MFLNRO Tory Stevens, BC-MOE Meade Krosby, UofW Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research Sarah Gergel, UBC Brian Starzomski, U.Vic. Eric LoFroth, MoE Thomas Sisk, U of Arizona Nicholas Coops, UBC Sally Aitken, UBC Meg Krawchuk, SFU Jim Pojar (I) Special Elements of Biodiversity – a proxy theme Four information layers • Signif. elements of biodiversity • Pressures: Human footprint – Current – Future Interpret combinations of these layers in relation to broad adaptation needs and options • Pressures: Climate Change – one scenario / 2080 • Mitigation potential – Dynamic carbon – Static carbon Interpret in relation to above layers for potential win-win mitigation / adaptation options a) Habitat focused Old and mature forest Grasslands Wetlands (presence / concentrations) Lakes and rivers Estuaries b) Species focused Terrestrial species richness – all species Endangered species and ecosystems Important Bird Areas Species richness for which BC has high global responsibility Intact large mammal predator-prey systems (II) Pressures - Human footprint • Current – Linear features – transport. density / pipelines / seismic lines/hydro lines Areas upstream of dams Water diversion index Urban / rural / permanent recreation Public land grazing (cattle) Agriculture Active mines Active coal field tenures (over-emphasizes current pressure) – Independent power projects (run of river / wind) – – – – – – – Image Credit: Google Earth 2011. Seismic lines – Taiga Plains. Photo Credit: Cameron Carlyle. 2005. High Elevation Grazing. Photo: Lenz / iCLP RAVE. Taken on an iCLP RAVE. 2009. Open Pit Coal Mine Combining the layers Significant Elements of Biodiversity + Footprint (III) Future climate • • • • New layer – based on Dave Roberts U of AB. Interpreted for BC (this project) Greg Utzig Single scenario and model – ‘conservative’ A2. Predicts climate envelopes to 2080 2000 Projecting climate envelopes • One scenario • Based only on climate: • Soil characteristics, competition, pest outbreaks, migration rates, genetic variation, predator/prey relationships and other factors will also play a role in determining what ecosystems will actually occur in specific locations 2080 Goodness of fit – predicted to current envelopes. Summary of Mahalanobis distance Information: Green = good agreement Yellow = moderately good Red = poor agreement, but best available from range of options in Western north america Where do BC’s future climate envelopes exist today? Note – things move around in BC, so this under-estimates change What does this tell us? • Big and unknown change …… • Regime shift – significant in some area – Unknown in others • Potentially huge implications around Western North America connectivity - (IV) Mitigation opportunities • Created static carbon maps (based on Ruesch & Gibbs, ORNL – ‘Updated Total Global Carbon Stocks’) - Soil organic carbon (worked with Terry Lewis) - Terrestrial biomass carbon (circa 2000) • Not yet proofed …. • Difficulties creating terrestrial biomass – Non-intuitive results (Alaskan systems move in) – Have to think outside our boundaries … Directing Actions: Key elements LOW of biodiversity FOOTPRINT – low MEDIUM FOOTPRINT – medium FOOTPRINT – high Identify alternate management strategies in these boxes - HIGH Conservation Opportunities • Connectivity – multiple scales - some issues at this very broadest scale • Strategies different within ecoprovinces • Climate change – – Resistance – Resilience – Transition Mitigation Responsibility Key elements LOW of biodiversity Carbon MEDIUM HIGH Win-win opportunities – ID now. Win-win opportunities – ID now. Carbon Win-win opportunities – ID now. Carbon • Most strategies are not new – we just need to decide where to employ Implications? Acknowledgements Funders: Wilburforce Foundation, TIDES Canada Foundation Project Advisors: Dr. Dave Secord, TIDES Canada Foundation; Dr. Ken Lertzman, Simon Fraser University • Re-consider objectives – As squeeze hits – which way will we head? Science Advisor Team:Andy Mackinnon BC-MFLNRO, Tory Stevens, BC-MOE, Meade Krosby, UofW, Carlos Carroll, Klamath Center for Conservation Research, Sarah Gergel, UBC, Brian Starzomski, U.Vic., Eric LoFroth, MoE, Thomas Sisk, U of Arizona, Nicholas Coops, UBC, Sally Aitken, UBC, Meg Krawchuk, SFU, Jim Pojar Data Providers and Advisors (many thanks!) : BC Ministry of Environment • Will we prioritise mitigation opportunities? – Currently don’t even have data to fully inform • Social and environmental chaos? – Opportunities to make long-term decisions that prioritise both. BC Ministry of Environment and Ducks Unlimited BC Ministry of Forest, Lands and Natural Resource Operations BC Ministry of Energy and Mines Natural Resources Canada NatureTrust BC Werner Kurz, CFS Terry Lewis Bird Studies Canada and Nature Canada 2004-2010 IBA Database. Port Rowan ON Grasslands Council of British Columbia • Timeframe? Dave Roberts, University of Alberta (modified to BC by Greg Utzig and Rachel Holt) – Now, or never? FAO/IIASA/ISRIC/ISS-CAS/JRC, 2009. Harmonized World Soil Database (version 1.1) Ruesch, Aaron, and Holly K. Gibbs. 2008. New IPCC Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map For the Year 2000 (Terrestrial Carbon Stocks) Thank You Contact Info: Rachel Holt - [email protected] Gregory Kehm - [email protected]