* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download phenology
Politics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit email controversy wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report wikipedia , lookup
Fred Singer wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on humans wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on Australia wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
NATIONAL PHENOLOGY NETWORK (NPN) Challenges of Building a Phenological Research Infrastructure in the USA UW-Milwaukee Geography Research Contributions Research Collaborators: R. Ahas, A. Aasa, X. Chen, B. Reed, M. White, and T. Zhao Phenology data from J. Caprio, DWD, and A. Menzel Climate data from Chinese Meteorological Administration, German Weather Service (DWD), Instytut Meteorologii i Gospodarki Wodnej (Poland), and USA National Climatic Data Center NSF Grants ATM-9510342, 9809460, and 0085224 Base maps from ESRI data UW-Milwaukee Geography Definition of Phenology Phenology which is derived from the Greek word phaino meaning to show or to appear, is the study of plant and animal life cycle events, which are triggered by environmental changes, especially temperature. Thus, timings of phenological events are ideal indicators of global change impacts. Seasonality is a related term, referring to similar non-biological events, such as timing of the fall formation and spring break-up of ice on fresh water lakes. UW-Milwaukee Geography Phenological Research Traditional approach: agriculturecentered, and local-scale events Recent approach: Earth systems interactions, and global-scale events Question: What roles for phenology in current and future agricultural research? UW-Milwaukee Geography Decadal Averaged Cherry Bloom in Kyoto, Japan UW-Milwaukee Geography Data Source: web file (no longer available) Mean onset of spring phenophases in the International Phenological Gardens (Europe) UW-Milwaukee Geography Source: Menzel et al. 2001, Global Change Biology, Figure 1 Cloned lilac first leaf and first bloom dates at a single station in Vermont UW-Milwaukee Geography Simulated phenology developed from lilac and honeysuckle data combined with climate data UW-Milwaukee Geography Source: Schwartz and Reiter 2000, Plate 4 (updated) Critical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions Long-term Organism response to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management UW-Milwaukee Geography Integrated Approach Satellite Observations (AVHRR-NDVI) Indicator Species Phenology Native Species Phenology UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Leaf UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Bloom UW-Milwaukee Geography DMA NDVI Start of Season 1995 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 74, March 15th) UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions Long-term Organism response to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management UW-Milwaukee Geography Diurnal Range Change with Lilac First Leaf 15.5 14.5 Snow Date Mean = -27.9 s.e. = 1.6 + Diurnal Range (°C) 13.5 12.5 11.5 10.5 Freeze Date Mean = +12.5 s.e. = 0.9 + 9.5 8.5 7.5 -56 -42 -28 -14 0 14 Days After First Leaf Date UW-Milwaukee Geography Source: Schwartz 1996, Figure 3 28 42 56 Comparative Net Ecosystem Exchange 6 4 Mean Daily NEE (umol/m2/s) 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 Park Falls, WI -14 M-Monroe, IN H. Forest, MA Oak Ridge, TN -16 -18 -70 UW-Milwaukee Geography -56 -42 -28 -14 0 14 28 42 Days after Spring Index First Bloom 56 70 Comparative Net Ecosystem Exchange Annual “Downturn” Rates Days after SI First Bloom that NEE = 0 40 20 0 -20 Park Falls, WI M-Monroe, IN H. Forest, MA Oak Ridge, TN -40 -10 UW-Milwaukee Geography 0 10 20 30 Days after SI First Bloom that NEE = -5 40 Critical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions Long-term Organism response to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management UW-Milwaukee Geography Terrestrial Biosphere Dynamic Change Detection Satellite Phenology Simulated Phenology (Models) Cloned Species Phenology Native Species Phenology UW-Milwaukee Geography Satellite Phenology Advantages: 1) Global coverage; 2) Integrated signal Limitations: 1) Short period-of-record; 2) Cloud cover interference; 3) Interpretation issues; 4) Small set of measures UW-Milwaukee Geography SMN NDVI Start of Season 1995 (Schwartz et al. 2002, mean day = 124, May 4th) UW-Milwaukee Geography Simulated Phenology Advantages: 1) Broad coverage if using simple input; 2) Standardized response Limitations: 1) Model inadequacies; 2) Small set of events and plants UW-Milwaukee Geography Spring Indices Suite of Measures -2.2oC freeze date in Autumn Composite chill date (SI models) First leaf date (SI models) First bloom date (SI models) Last -2.2oC freeze date in Spring -2.2oC Freeze period Damage index value (first leaf – last frost) Average annual, average seasonal, and twelve average monthly temperatures First UW-Milwaukee Geography SI First Leaf Date 1961-2000 Slope UW-Milwaukee Geography North. Hem. SI First Leaf Date Departures UW-Milwaukee Geography North. Hem. Last –2.2oC Freeze Date Departures UW-Milwaukee Geography SI Damage Index Value 1961-2000 Slope UW-Milwaukee Geography Cloned Species Phenology Advantages: 1) Ideal for model development; 2) Standardized response to environment; 3) Broad range Limitations: 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Not adapted to local environment UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Leaf 1961-2000 Slope UW-Milwaukee Geography Lilac First Bloom 1961-2000 Slope UW-Milwaukee Geography Native Species Phenology Advantages: 1) Adapted to the local environment; 2) Precise signal Limitations: 1) Lack of network geographical coverage; 2) Limited range; 3) Geographical variations in response UW-Milwaukee Geography Integrated Approach Example: Wisconsin Zhao and Schwartz (2003) Satellite phenology (DMA SOS) Simulated phenology (SI first bloom dates) “Native” species phenology (WPS records of first bloom date for 21 introduced and 32 native species) UW-Milwaukee Geography Integrated Species Indices (ISI) southwestern Wisconsin UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Research Areas Atmosphere-Biosphere Interactions Long-term Organism response to Climate Change Global Phenology Databases for monitoring and management UW-Milwaukee Geography Critical Data/Analysis Needs Interpretation/Comparison of satellite phenology with “spatial” surface data Interpretation of “ripple effects” in biomes and managed systems National, continental, and global scale phenology networks UW-Milwaukee Geography USA National Phenology Network (NPN) a continental-scale network observing regionally appropriate native plant species, cloned indicator plants (lilac), (and selected agricultural crops?) designed to complement remote sensing observations data collected will be freely available to the research community and general public UW-Milwaukee Geography Prototype for web-based NPN http://www.npn.uwm.edu UW-Milwaukee Geography Select appropriate native species UW-Milwaukee Geography Submit data over the Internet UW-Milwaukee Geography What might be possible with 20 years (or less) of phenological data? Facilitate understanding of plant phenological cycles and their relationship to climate Comprehensive evaluation of satellite-derived measurements Detection of long-term phenological trends in response to climate variability/global warming Evaluate impacts of longer growing seasons on pollinators, cattle, crop and forest pests, wildfires, carbon storage, and water use UW-Milwaukee Geography Issues for NPN Implementation Workshop (Aug. 23-25, 2005 in Tucson, AZ) Native species selection for regions Expansion of indicator plants to entire country Web-based reporting and feedback system Network infrastructure design and function Collaborative and cooperative agreements Deployment and development strategies Public engagement and awareness UW-Milwaukee Geography