Download Coastal Cities - Coastal Impacts

Coastal Cities - Coastal Impacts:
p
The Tides They Are A-Changin’
Susan K. Avery
President and Director
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
MBL, July 2009
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The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane
Reconstructed from historical accounts
Maine
No damage
Light damage
New York
Moderate damage
Considerable damage
Cape Cod
Long Island
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The Eastern
has changed
since 1821
Coastal population in MD, DE, NJ, NY and CT
now exceeds 31 million—making evacuation
diffi lt
difficult
Insured coastal property is more than $1 trillion
Rockaway Beach, NY
Ocean City, MD
Atlantic City, NJ
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style
Earth’s p
population
pClick to edit
has doubled
in the
last 40 y
years
Rockaway Beach, NY
Atlantic City, MD
Population trends, 1970
1970-2000:
2000: Coastal crowding
Coastal Cities:
Living with the ocean
1. More people and infrastructure
in coastal cities have become
far more vulnerable to impacts
from their environment.
Coastal Cities:
2. The environment has become
Living with the ocean
far more vulnerable to impacts
from more people and
i f t t
infrastructure.
More
on the
coast
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to people
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putt more stress
t
on th
the ocean
North Carolina hog farms
• Loss of protective coastal barrier beaches and marshes.
• Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the
sea, changing the oceans’ chemistry and marine ecosystems.
Contaminating the oceans affects marine life
More
on the
coast
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to people
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putt more stress
t
on th
the ocean
Chatham,, 1985
g farms
North Carolina hog
Air Pollution
• Loss of p
protective coastal barrier beaches and marshes.
• Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the
sea, changing
g g the oceans’ chemistry
y and marine ecosystems.
y
• Air pollution is also having large impacts on the ocean.
Contaminating the oceans affects marine life on
global scales
The oceans’ chemistry is changing
Projected for 2060-69
1870
No Data
Extremely Poor
Marginal
Adequate
Optimal
Coastal Cities: Living with the ocean and climate
change
1 M
1.
More people
l and
d
infrastructure in coastal cities
have become far more
vulnerable
lnerable to impacts from
the environment.
2 The environment has
2.
become far more vulnerable
to impacts from more people
and infrastructure
infrastructure.
3. Earth’s rapidly changing
climate will have dramatic
environmental impacts.
Climate
change
is primarily
induced
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(Intergovernmental
I t
t lP
Panell on Cli
Climate
t Change
Ch
)
 Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations far
exceed levels of last 650,000 years as a result of
human emissions
 Warming of the climate system is “Unequivocal”
 Climate change forcing primarily human (fossil
fuels and land use)
 Agreed by delegates of 113 nations
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The oceans’
large
g role
in the
carbon
y
The oceans,
air,
interact
in a complex
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toand
editland
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system
t
Where water meets the land: Impacts of storm
surge
Storm surge heights
reconstructed from
observations
Ma
aximum W
Water Levvel above
e MSL (m
m)
Storm surge
City
onstyle
Sept. 3, 1821
ClickintoNew
editYork
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title
4
3.5
3
Water rose 13 feet (4m)
in one hour
2.5
2
1.5
Predicted Tide
1
0.5
0
Courtesy
C
t
JJeff
ff Donnelly,
D
ll WHOI
(based on observations by
Redfield, 1831)
-0.5
05
Time (hours)
When storm
struck NYC
A double
whammy
for coastal
cities:
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growing
i populations
l ti
and
d rising
i i sea llevels
l
IPCC(2007)
Observations
support
accelerated
Click to
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title stylesea level
rise
150
Global Sea Level from Tide Gauges +
Altimeters (>1992)
3.2 mm/year
100
2.0 mm/year
MSL (mm)

50
0
0.8 mm/year
~ 8 inches
(200 mm)
-50
Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year
-100
1880
[Church and White, 2006]
1900
1920
1940
Y
Year
1960
1980
2000
A local example of inundation
(sea level rise plus storm surge)
Woods Hole
Sea level changes are not uniform:
Trends of sea level change (1993-2008)
New York City
Shanghai
Alexandria
Tokyo
Dubai
Miami
Mumbai
Jakarta
Rio
de Janeiro
Sydney
Cape Town
New Orleans
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style
Melting
Me
t gClick
ice
ce sheets
s to
eets
co
contribute
t butetitle
to sea
level
eve rise
se
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edit“system
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style s
A complicated
co
p to
cated
syste title
of
o syste
systems”
Susan: Insert your graphic of environmental system of systems that
you showed us.
Putting it all together
1. More people and infrastructure in
coastal cities have become far
more vulnerable to impacts from
the environment.
2. The environment has become far
more vulnerable
l
bl to iimpacts ffrom
more people and infrastructure.
3 E
3.
Earth’s
th’ rapidly
idl changing
h
i climate
li t
will have dramatic environmental
impacts
4. We must understand “a system
of systems.”
An international effort to observe the oceans
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Thee new
ew
U.S.to
ocea
ocean
obse
observatories
vato
initiatives
t at ves
An example
integrated
observations:
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H
Harmful
f l algal
l l bl
blooms ((red
d tid
tides))
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style
Moree harmful
Mo
a
uto algal
aedit
ga Master
b
blooms
oo stitle
in more
o ep
places
aces
A case in point: impacts on infrastructure
and
d city
it water
t supplies
li
Iran
Saudi
Arabia
Persian
Gulf
0
Dubai
Source: R. Stumpf, NOAA
Gulf of
Oman
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titlefor
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Better data
makes
better
models
forecasting
Modeling a
dynamic complex
dynamic,
ocean-atmosphere-landlife ecosystem
Modeling a system of systems:
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Atmosphere-ocean-land
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to edit
Master
title
A case
in po
point:
t: improved
p oved
forecasting
o style
ecast g
Alerting fishing fleets and the Coast Guard of fast-forming, local icing conditions
Making information available
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into Action
Credits
Thanks to WHOI scientists:
Jeff Donnelly
Chris Reddy
Porter Hoagland
Jim Price
Dennis McGillicuddy
Scott Doney
Don Anderson
Robert Weller
Bill C
Curry
Jim Yoder
Bob Beardsley
S h Daas
Sarah
D
Andy Maffei
Peter Fox, RPI
And the WHOI Communications Office