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Transcript
Coastal Cities - Coastal Impacts: p The Tides They Are A-Changin’ Susan K. Avery President and Director Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution MBL, July 2009 Click to edit Master title style The 1821 Norfolk and Long Island Hurricane Reconstructed from historical accounts Maine No damage Light damage New York Moderate damage Considerable damage Cape Cod Long Island ClickSeaboard to edit Master title style The Eastern has changed since 1821 Coastal population in MD, DE, NJ, NY and CT now exceeds 31 million—making evacuation diffi lt difficult Insured coastal property is more than $1 trillion Rockaway Beach, NY Ocean City, MD Atlantic City, NJ Master title style Earth’s p population pClick to edit has doubled in the last 40 y years Rockaway Beach, NY Atlantic City, MD Population trends, 1970 1970-2000: 2000: Coastal crowding Coastal Cities: Living with the ocean 1. More people and infrastructure in coastal cities have become far more vulnerable to impacts from their environment. Coastal Cities: 2. The environment has become Living with the ocean far more vulnerable to impacts from more people and i f t t infrastructure. More on the coast Click to people edit Master title style putt more stress t on th the ocean North Carolina hog farms • Loss of protective coastal barrier beaches and marshes. • Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the sea, changing the oceans’ chemistry and marine ecosystems. Contaminating the oceans affects marine life More on the coast Click to people edit Master title style putt more stress t on th the ocean Chatham,, 1985 g farms North Carolina hog Air Pollution • Loss of p protective coastal barrier beaches and marshes. • Urban and agricultural runoff add tons of pollutants to the sea, changing g g the oceans’ chemistry y and marine ecosystems. y • Air pollution is also having large impacts on the ocean. Contaminating the oceans affects marine life on global scales The oceans’ chemistry is changing Projected for 2060-69 1870 No Data Extremely Poor Marginal Adequate Optimal Coastal Cities: Living with the ocean and climate change 1 M 1. More people l and d infrastructure in coastal cities have become far more vulnerable lnerable to impacts from the environment. 2 The environment has 2. become far more vulnerable to impacts from more people and infrastructure infrastructure. 3. Earth’s rapidly changing climate will have dramatic environmental impacts. Climate change is primarily induced Click to edit Master human title style (Intergovernmental I t t lP Panell on Cli Climate t Change Ch ) Atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations far exceed levels of last 650,000 years as a result of human emissions Warming of the climate system is “Unequivocal” Climate change forcing primarily human (fossil fuels and land use) Agreed by delegates of 113 nations Click to edit Master title style cycle The oceans’ large g role in the carbon y The oceans, air, interact in a complex Click toand editland Master title style system t Where water meets the land: Impacts of storm surge Storm surge heights reconstructed from observations Ma aximum W Water Levvel above e MSL (m m) Storm surge City onstyle Sept. 3, 1821 ClickintoNew editYork Master title 4 3.5 3 Water rose 13 feet (4m) in one hour 2.5 2 1.5 Predicted Tide 1 0.5 0 Courtesy C t JJeff ff Donnelly, D ll WHOI (based on observations by Redfield, 1831) -0.5 05 Time (hours) When storm struck NYC A double whammy for coastal cities: Click to edit Master title style growing i populations l ti and d rising i i sea llevels l IPCC(2007) Observations support accelerated Click to edit Master title stylesea level rise 150 Global Sea Level from Tide Gauges + Altimeters (>1992) 3.2 mm/year 100 2.0 mm/year MSL (mm) 50 0 0.8 mm/year ~ 8 inches (200 mm) -50 Average Rate ~ 1.8 mm/year -100 1880 [Church and White, 2006] 1900 1920 1940 Y Year 1960 1980 2000 A local example of inundation (sea level rise plus storm surge) Woods Hole Sea level changes are not uniform: Trends of sea level change (1993-2008) New York City Shanghai Alexandria Tokyo Dubai Miami Mumbai Jakarta Rio de Janeiro Sydney Cape Town New Orleans edit Master style Melting Me t gClick ice ce sheets s to eets co contribute t butetitle to sea level eve rise se Click edit“system Master style s A complicated co p to cated syste title of o syste systems” Susan: Insert your graphic of environmental system of systems that you showed us. Putting it all together 1. More people and infrastructure in coastal cities have become far more vulnerable to impacts from the environment. 2. The environment has become far more vulnerable l bl to iimpacts ffrom more people and infrastructure. 3 E 3. Earth’s th’ rapidly idl changing h i climate li t will have dramatic environmental impacts 4. We must understand “a system of systems.” An international effort to observe the oceans Click edit Master title es style Thee new ew U.S.to ocea ocean obse observatories vato initiatives t at ves An example integrated observations: Click toof edit Master title style H Harmful f l algal l l bl blooms ((red d tid tides)) Click style Moree harmful Mo a uto algal aedit ga Master b blooms oo stitle in more o ep places aces A case in point: impacts on infrastructure and d city it water t supplies li Iran Saudi Arabia Persian Gulf 0 Dubai Source: R. Stumpf, NOAA Gulf of Oman Click to edit Master titlefor style Better data makes better models forecasting Modeling a dynamic complex dynamic, ocean-atmosphere-landlife ecosystem Modeling a system of systems: Click to edit Master title style Atmosphere-ocean-land Click to edit Master title A case in po point: t: improved p oved forecasting o style ecast g Alerting fishing fleets and the Coast Guard of fast-forming, local icing conditions Making information available ClickScience to edit Master title style into Action Credits Thanks to WHOI scientists: Jeff Donnelly Chris Reddy Porter Hoagland Jim Price Dennis McGillicuddy Scott Doney Don Anderson Robert Weller Bill C Curry Jim Yoder Bob Beardsley S h Daas Sarah D Andy Maffei Peter Fox, RPI And the WHOI Communications Office