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Catchment Management: Impacts of Climate
Change – ‘Setting the scene’
Dr Mark Williams
Scottish Water/
UK Water Industry Research Ltd
Always serving Scotland
Our Purpose
• Protecting public health
• Protecting and enhancing our
environment
• Facilitating economic growth,
affordability
Resilience to environmental
change is key
The role of UK Water Industry
Research (UKWIR)
●
‘One voice’ industry research
●
New and emerging issues
●
UK WIR
Areas that do not conflict with
company interests
UKWIR Key Collaborative Outputs
Water Resource
Planning Tools
●
●
●
UK WIR
Shared with Regulators /
Government
Underpins sectoral approach for
agreement with regulators for
business planning
Consistent reporting on Climate
Change Risk Assessments
CC Risk Assessment
And
Adaptation Planning
Impacts and Responses
for Water and
Wastewater treatment
Impact on Customer
Demand
Water Resources
Huge number of water resource zones (300+)
Reasonable level of resilience, but climate vulnerability assessment
indicates some issues
Central (50% probability) estimate of the change in
mean precipitation (%) by 2050 (high emissions scenario)
UKWIR Tools enable
UKCP09
Complex Hydrologically Modelled
Sources e.g. large reservioirs,
rivers, boreholes etc
Smaller sources, simplistic
models e.g. small rivers/streams
etc
Convert raw data to evotranspiration
and flows
Joint probabilities: Temperature and
Precipitation
Joint probabilities: Temperature and
Precipitation
Impact on chosen level of service (1 in 40)
in 2030s and beyond
Develop and test wet/dry scenarios –
cumulative flow issues
Impact on Demand
Impact on chosen level of service (1 in 40)
in 2030s and beyond
Impact on Demand
Detailed hydrological assessment –
incorporate into models
General planning assumptions
Water Resources – Applying Climate Projections
Cumulative WRZs at less than 1 in 40
(in 2039/40) with:
•NO Climate Change;
•MID yield from Climate Change;
•MIN yield from Climate Change.
Scottish Water Adaptation Studies
Monitoring
• Range and type of monitoring better understood
• Significant gap – we do not have the data to understand how things are changing
Surface Water Management Planning
• Identified extent to which this will support CC adaptation
• To be taken forward as part of SWMP work
CC Risk Assessment
• Focus on understanding CC risks, failure nodes, detailed asset case study
• Further underpinned need for real data
• Need to extend – CC projection changes, Scotland’s Risk Assessment
2015-21 Adaptation Plan
Water Resource Planning – integrating CC
Customer and asset flood risk management
Surface Water Management Planning
Monitoring – projects:
raw water quality
raw water quantity
drainage and sewer flows/loads – trends
Risk assessment updates and feed into Scotland’s Risk
Assessment
Catchment Management - Water Quality
Contaminants and Sources
Contaminants
• Pesticides
• Colour
• Metals
• Nutrients
• Sediment
• Hydrocarbons
Sources
Land based activities
Pathways
Catchment specific
• Agriculture
Receptors
• WTW
• Customers
• Public amenities
• Engineering works
• Forestry activities
Primary Benefits – Improved drinking water quality/treatment and value for money
Secondary Benefits
• Environmental (quality, energy, carbon)
• Land users e.g. save land chemical inputs
•Catchment resilience
Catchment Management Team
Area (WTW)
Issue
River Ugie (Forehill)
Pesticides
River Deveron (Turriff)
Pesticides
Loch of Lintrathen (Clatto)
Nutrients
Loch Ascog (Loch Ascog)
Nutrients
Dumfries Basin (Cargen & Terregles borehole)
Nitrates
Lochgoin/ Craigendunton Reservoirs (Amlaird)
Colour
Monitoring in priority catchments
River Ugie catchment
Issues encountered
Water Environment Management Plan (WEMP)
• Improved drinking water quality/treatment
• Net cost/carbon benefit
• Environmental benefit (improved
biodiversity)
• Benefit land users e.g. save soils, save
chemical inputs
• Partnership working
• Climate change – resilience, naturalising
watercourses
The ‘ideal’ – resilient, natural watercourses
The Urban Challenge?
Original objective: integrate climate models into
drainage models
BUT:
Drainage planning is based on local statistical rainfall
models
Climate models based on statistical probabilities
Applying climate projections to local models = too much
uncertainty
Need REAL DATA!
Morning 30th July 2002
River Clyde at Glasgow Green
On 30 July 2002 Glasgow’s average monthly
rainfall fell in just 10 hours. This led to
significant flooding across the city as the
sewerage and drainage systems struggled to
cope with the extreme weather conditions.
Overland flow
Surcharging Sewers
Ponding in low spots
MGSDP Partnership
Partnership through Collaboration
Sewer System & Problems
Legend
Satisfactory CSO
Aesthetic CSO
Water Quality CSO
Flooding
Dalmuir
WwT
Erskine
WwTW
Partick
WwPS
Paisley
WwTW
Shieldhall
WwTW
Kinning
Park
WwPS
Dalmarnock
WwTW
Daldowie
WwTW
Surface Water Management Green Corridors
GCC Flood Prevention
Scheme - Ruchill
2030
A FIT FOR PURPOSE
SERVICE
A FIT FOR PURPOSE
ASSET BASE WITH
WORK ROUND
CONTINGENCIES
IN PLACE
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
(Ready for PR29etc)
DEVELOP DESIGN SPECIFICATION FOR
ASSETS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE
QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY
TOOLS AND MODELS AVAILABLE
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
(Ready for PR24 etc)
RESEARCH INTO TOOLS
AND MODELS
FEEDBACK FROM GOVERNMENT
2020
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
(Ready for PR19/SR20/PC)
DEVELOP DESIGN SPECIFICATION FOR
ASSETS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE
QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY
TOOLS AND MODELS AVAILABLE
RESEARCH INTO TOOLS
AND MODELS
FEEDBACK FROM GOVERNMENT
2015
INVESTMENT DECISIONS
(Ready for PR14/SR15/PC)
DEVELOP DESIGN SPECIFICATION FOR
ASSETS BASED ON CLIMATE CHANGE
QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY
TOOLS AND MODELS AVAILABLE
2010
UK WIR
DEVELOP DETAILED
UNDERSTANDING
OF ASSET BASE
CAPABALITY
RESEARCH INTO TOOLS
AND MODELS
DIRECTION FROM GOVERNMENT
ASSETS APPROPRIATELY ADAPTED TO SECURE SERVICES
RESILIENT TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Uncertainty and Impacts
June-July-August Northern Hemisphere
Temperature Anomaly
The mean is shifting
The range is shifting twice as fast
What are we planning for?
Hansen et al (2012)
www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1205276109