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研究院アワーのお知らせ (EES seminar) 2014 年 12 月 8 日(月) (Dec 8, 2014) 17:00-18:00 Place: 環境科学院 D201 Chair: 仲岡 雅裕 (Masahiro Nakaoka)(厚岸臨海) Kelp Forests in the Era of Climate Change Jarrett E. K. Byrnes (University of Massachusetts Boston) Kelps have the potential to dominate roughly one quarter of the world’s coastlines. These temperate-water large brown algae provide a wide variety of key ecosystem services. They provide habitat and food for many fish and invertebrate species. They are harvested themselves for food and chemicals. Their structure can alter coastal hydrodynamics. Changes in kelp populations can have large effects cascading through an ecosystem. We know that kelps have the potential to be susceptible to climate change driven shifts in the ocean environment. Here I discuss recent models and meta-analyses examining our current knowledge about the future of kelp forest ecosystems. I show that models of kelp forest interaction webs incorporating climate drivers suggest kelp declines in many systems around the globe. I present evidence from a meta-analysis of extant time-series demonstrating that some regions are already experiencing kelp declines, but that this pattern is not uniform. Using meta-analysis of kelp removal experiments, I show that kelp losses have potentially very different effects on fish at different trophic levels. I close with possibilities for future research, both from the scientific community and citizen scientists, to help us better understand how kelp forests across the globe might shift in the era of climate change. Marine Biodiversity and Ecosystem Function in a Warming Ocean Mary I. O’Connor (University of British Columbia) Marine biodiversity is dynamic; species’ abundance and distribution are shifting with climate, human-facilitated transport, disturbance, and natural causes. Despite concern globally for biodiversity loss, recent analyses have suggested that locally species richness is relatively stable despite changes in species composition. The future in marine ecosystems will reflect both changes in species biodiversity, as well as how the constraints on biodiversity and its functional consequences change with changing climate. Here, I consider the implications of current trends in marine biodiversity for marine ecosystems given projections of ocean warming using climate velocity metrics. Trends in biodiversity will occur within the context of marine ecosystem function, which reflects the fundamental constraints of temperature on the biomass and energy flow of food webs. Experimental work in aquatic food webs suggests that functional responses to climate change will reflect constraints independent of shifts in biodiversity. A major challenge is to identify ecosystem change that constrains biodiversity change, and the feedbacks then between biodiversity and ecosystem function.