Download Climate Twins - The Mersey Forest

Climate Twins
The Mersey Forest
3/27/2012
Background
As part of our transnational cooperation through ForeStClim, The Mersey Forest
team have proposed the idea of “Climate Twins” or perhaps “Climate Chains”.
The principle behind this idea is that we use projected climate change data to identify
locations across Europe that currently have a climate that at present is similar to that
projected for a “target area” of interest. In our case the target area is The Mersey
Forest.
We call these “Climate Twins”. We may identify “twins” for projected climate changes
over a number of time periods for instance the years 2030, 2050 and 2080.
The purpose of identifying the twins for a specific target area is to enable exchange
and learning through transnational cooperation within the ForeStClim project and
allow adaption of forest management to sustain our trees and woodlands and gain
the benefits (ecosystem services) that we need from them.
The Mersey Forest
The Mersey Forest covers 1000km2 in Northwest England. It is not a forest in the
sense of a continuous cover of trees and woodlands. in fact woodland cover in 1991
was as low as 3.8% of the land area.
The Mersey Forest is a government approved plan and designates an area where
we are looking to create new community woodlands and bring existing woodland into
productive management. The purpose is to develop a well wooded landscape that
provides a wide range of benefits to local communities.
Over the last 18 years over 2750 ha of new community woodland has been planted,
around 9 million new trees.
Figure 1 Tree-o-meter from Mersey Forest website
This equates to a 72% increase in woodland cover. In addition over 60% of mature
woodland is now in management with many of the large areas of woodland under the
UK
Woodland
Assurance
Scheme
of
management,
assuring
sustainable
management.
The key elements that enable delivery are;

A Forest Plan (www.merseyforest.org.uk/plan)

A robust partnership

A team put in place by the partnership and mandated to deliver the Forest
Plan.
Recently an awareness survey has shown us that;

92% of people in the area support the work of the Mersey Forest.

64% say that they have seen an improvement in their local environment.

22% say that they use their community woodland at least once a week.
Mersey Forest and ForeStClim
As part of the trans-national ForestClim consortium The Mersey Forest team are
looking at developing a silviculture that can:
o Enable effective management of trees, woods and forests in a changing
climate – based on best available projections.
o Enable better decisions to be made about how to manage the trees, woods
and forests to provide the benefits required of them by society.
Projected climate change may have an impact on the sustainability of both the newly
planted and mature woodlands and on the range of benefits that they provide, or
which we may need them to provide in the future.
Our model, used to help shape our ForeStClim Work is shown in Figure 2. We are
interested in the flows into and out from the woodland resource, as described above
our task is to increase the size of this resource in the Mersey Forest area.
Figure 2
We are also interested in the drivers that impact on the woodland resource, in the
case of ForeStClim specifically climate change and on the delivery of a range of
public benefits.
We have used a framework developed as part of our green infrastructure work to
help to communicate the benefits that we are looking to achieve.
Figure 3 Green Infrastructure benefits framework
Through transnational working we have developed two major strands of activity to
help us to create our new silvicultural guidance.

Developing Climate twins

Use of decision support tools to help to inform future silviculture and
importantly as one tool in community engagement and consultation
This paper looks at the development of a Climate Twinning approach to inform
silvicultural guidance.
Climate Twins
Work by Forestry Commission in the UK has identified parts of Europe that at
present have the type of climatic conditions that we anticipate for our area in the
future given the projections for climate change.
These are climate analogues and we can see from Figure 4 that as we move to the
2050’s, the climate in Manchester is projected to be similar (for the variables 3
climate variables, monthly mean temperature, diurnal temperature range and
precipitation) to the south coast of England and the area around Dieppe for the low
emission scenario. For the high emission scenario the analogous areas are around
St Malo and areas north of Nantes. The 2080’s scenario analogues continue to grow
along the northwest France coast and inland to Redon, but also show up in mid to
south Italy.
Figure 4
Within the ForeStClim partnership we have partners based in the area north of
Nantes, exactly in the area projected to be analogous to The Mersey Forest.
These partners also have a very similar community forest focus to that of The
Mersey Forest, engaging in both woodland management and forest creation projects
close to local communities.
This provides an ideal opportunity to share information through ForeStClim and start
to develop a Climate Twin approach to help us to develop our silviculture guidance
based on real experiences of the type of climate that we may encounter in The
Mersey Forest in the future..
Biogeographic zones
In addition to looking at climate analogues we also want to ensure that the
silvicultural guidance that we develop for managers and policy makers takes into
account biogeograhic factors.
This approach we feel will ensure that we focus on twinning with areas that are not
only climatically analogous but also share biographic characteristics too. A new map
of Biogeographic areas in Europe was produced in 2009 by European Environment
Agency. (http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/biogeographical-regionsin-europe )
The map indicates that both the target area (Mersey Forest) and the climate
analogues are in the same biogeographic regions – Atlantic.
The largest regions of animal and plant assemblages are biogeographical regions,
each bearing a distinctive fauna and flora. Some families and even some orders of
animals are endemic to particular biogeographical regions.
Key Concepts:





Regions (in biogeography) are spatial units of varying scales carrying
comparatively distinct sets of animals and plants.
Faunal and floral elements are groups of species sharing a similar pattern of
geographical distribution.
Biogeographical provincialism is the tendency of different geographical
regions to house unique species, genera or families.
Endemism is the state of being unique to a specific geographical region, such
as a continental landmass, a biogeographical region or a habitat.
Alien species (also called exotic, introduced and nonnative species) are
species accidentally or purposefully carried to areas outside their natural
range by humans.
(http://www.els.net/WileyCDA/ElsArticle/refId-a0003231.html)
Developing Silvicultural Guidance
In the UK, Forestry Commission provide a great deal of information and guidance on
a wide range of issues related to silviculture.
The
UK
Forest
Standard
provides
that
framework
for
best
practice.
(http://www.forestry.gov.uk/ukfs)
Various information notes and guidance documents as well as research documents
supplement this Forest Standard and give forest managers evidence based
guidance on forest management.
As part of ForeStClim we have developed a silvicultural guidance grid which looks at;

The impacts of climate change on trees and woodlands, for example possible
impacts of a new range of pests and diseases.

The impacts of climate change on society, which forest management can
mitigate or enable adaptation, for example the need to deliver high quality
recreation facilities, or manage water resources.

Potential silvicultural interventions, for example providing a list of suitable
species, comments on thinning intensity etc.
This grid is informed by

Existing UK guidance

Research into non standard silvicultural systems used currently by forest
managers in The Mersey Forest. This was researched as part of our early
ForeStClim work.

Discussions as part of the Climate Twin visit to NE France in May 2011.
Appendix 1 provides information on the findings from the visit.
The grid links to other information sources as well as providing a brief overview of
the issues.
The grid will be developed as one of our ForeStclim outputs and we hope will be;

A resource for woodland owners – providing links to further information, the
evidence upon which the management options are provided and any other
useful link or data

A tool for maximising the benefits from the forests – with increasing demands
on our woodlands the grid is a starting point for thinklng about how silvicultural
practices may need to be developed and changed in order to meet the
changing demand and expectation of delivery of benefits from our forests and
woodlands.
We are ground testing the grid as part of our ForeStClim Intervention at
Sefton Coast Woodlands.
Appendix 1 - Climate Twin – Visit to NW France
In May 2011 four members of The Mersey Forest Team visted various sites in NW
France to look at aspects of silviculture that could assist in developing out
silvicultural guidance.
Figure 5 Information sharing with Herve at Combellesac!
Our Key Questions
For our visit we set a number of questions that we hoped to start to answer. These
questions were grouped under two headings; communication/community and
silviculture.
The shared information is enabling us to see how we may start to assess changes to
silvicultural practice and guidance in The Mersey Forest, much of which can be
incorporated into our proposed Silvicultural Grid.
COMMUNICATION/COMMUNITY
What is the main message from the ForeStClim project in NW
France?
The central message of the ForeStClim project in the Northwest of France is the
need to experiment with radical new silvicultural approaches in order to prepare the
region’s landscape for the significant shift in climate that is projected for the area in
the coming decades.
The flipside of this experimentation is that traditional concepts of solely planting
native species will need to be put to one side in order to pragmatically deal with the
climatic changes ahead.
Figure 6 Trial Planting as part of ForeStClim - Combellesac
Who are they trying to influence?
The ForeStClim partners’ key audiences include the residents of this very rural area,
local and regional media, and the area’s landowners, including town councils. In
scientific and policy circles there is also the aim to influence the future direction of
policy at both national and European level, through projects such as ForeStClim.
Two examples of press coverage of the visit are provided below.
Figure 7 Press coverage from ForeStClim visit
Figure 8 Press coverage from ForeStClim visit
How are they getting their message out?
Up until this point, the partners have mainly been communicating directly with a
small number of landowners in order to establish test plantations, engaging schools
through a dedicated project officer who co-ordinates educational visits, and in Redon
working with local residents whose homes face on to felled pine areas by engaging
them in the replanting of the area with more resilient species. Communities do value
the forest as a source of wood for their small scale domestic fuel needs (e.g. log
burners/wood fires) and for house building, but there are currently no formal
arrangements. Timber removal over such a wide area of land is difficult to ‘police’
and so is accepted by the forest managers, but this demand could provide
opportunities for Forest staff to engage people in understanding future management.
The partners plan to enhance broader public awareness and support for the project
through a number of future measures.
Signage and interpretation are to be installed at plantations including that at
Comblessac, and maps of the Forest created with the aim of helping the local
community to build up understanding through their own recreational use of the sites
and experience of seeing how the plantations fare. Further work with communities in
forest management and bringing tree planting into towns and villages is a future
aspiration.
Figure 9 Recreation facilities - Redun
Figure 10 Forest interepretation - Redun
In order to deliver this aspiration, a large scale community planting event is planned
for November 2011 in order to engage the community in planting 5,000 trees in
Redon. This will be another way in which communities will be given a sense of
understanding of and ownership over the changes to their landscape.
Relationships are being built with local and regional journalists with the aim of
spreading the desired messages to the local population. Readership of the local
press in particular is very high (much greater than in the UK) and hence this has the
potential to be an excellent channel for ForeStClim to communicate messages about
projected climate change, the benefits of trees and woodland and the potential
impact that climate change will have on the delivery of these benefits. .
Online communication in the form of websites, blogs and social media is an avenue
yet to be explored by the French partners, but is an area they are keen to explore in
future.
What is the response? Do they measure change? Which angles resonate
best with policymakers and public?
Economic benefits? Habitat for
wildlife? Public health?
Good relationships are being established with key stakeholders, but ongoing
communication with them is vital to overcome several current barriers. Firstly, it will
take time and careful engagement to change the perception of landowners and
public alike that best practice is to plant local, native species only, and that “exotic”
or “alien” species should not be introduced. This is especially problematic given that
the messengers instilling this mindset in the past are the same organisations now
advising a very different approach.
Part of the solution to this is a rebranding of non-native species as travelling
“nomads” moving to new climes, rather than as invaders or foreigners. This is an
approach being pioneered by the ForeStClim partners in NW France which is
showing good promise and which could be easily adopted in other partner areas.
A second barrier has arisen from different perceptions/expectations in terms of the
results of the test plantations. While from a scientific point of view, the aim of the
experimental plantations is to learn, and so a high failure rate of the trees planted
does not necessarily mean an experiment has not been valuable.
Replanting the failed trees in order to bridge this gap in expectations would be a
potential next step, however the absence of an equivalent of the Forestry
Commission’s English Woodland Grant Scheme means funding replanting is difficult.
A third difficulty is that while the multiple benefits of forestry (social, environmental
and economic) are beginning to be better appreciated (for example through
publications such as “Les Nouveaux Usages de l’Arbre” – Revue Forestière
Française, 2009), this has yet to translate into funding opportunities or become
embedded in policy. Therefore the value of woodland is judged by its potential for
timber production, and its worth in terms of other green infrastructure benefits is
neglected. This is problematic in that the new “nomad” species that will inhabit the
region in future are likely to have high biodiversity, landscape and amenity value but
may not produce significant timber revenue. This represents a significant challenge
that will need to be addressed.
Public health is clearly evident in their accessible woodlands. The presence of set
piece gym equipment within the pine woodland at Redun shows this, as well as
dedicated BMX tracks/equipment,
COMMUNITY
At what levels do communities get involved in Forestry?
Information, events, consultation, practical tasks, joint decision
making, community ownership?
From our visit it would appear that the woodlands are well used by local
communities, that they also have been involved in the planting of the trees and that
there is a programme of “animation” of the sites to bring new users in and to show
the benefits of the woodland to local communities.
The local politicians were very engaged, interested and knowledgeable about their
woodlands, showing concern over death of trees and identifying a need for
replanting.
Do you target specific audiences? Why?
From our visit it was not apparent that particular communities were targeted, but the
context of the area is very different to The Mersey Forest, with much less deprivation
and land pressure and little or no sign of derelict land.
How do you sustain long term support for communities, e.g. staff
resources, £?
Funding for community forestry in France appears to come mainly from public funds
and projects such as ForeStClim. The movement is local with no overarching
community forestry policy in place,
The following four areas were not covered due to lack of time, we hope to explore
these in the return visit by French partners to The Mersey Forest.

What are the main barriers to getting people involved in
forest projects?

Is forestry well
involvement?

Are communities aware of climate change issues? How do
you educate them?
understood,
is
there
a
culture
of

Are communities aware of climate changes issues relating
to Forestry?
SILVICULTURE
General Notes
During time of the visit the region was experiencing an exceptional lack of rain with
only 3mm of rain during the months of April and May. This was clearly taking its toll
on the regeneration of young seedlings which had not yet had a chance to develop
an adequate root system. This did appear to be among specimens on shallow soils
(e.g. Combellsac soils, edges of paths, etc..). Older, more advanced regeneration
did not yet seem to be suffering as a consequence of lack of water. (Drought stress
of previous or successive years can manifest itself and take many seasons to show
full extent of damage to tree?).
Sweet chestnut was very common and regenerates freely and may be a species that
does well in the NW in light of changing climate. It also competed with oak as a
coloniser, particularly in open spaces. Planting this species in schemes may be an
option for adapting new woodlands.
It already does well in the SW where it is
coppiced and could spread its range north?
There are no government grants for the creation or management of woodlands
similar those available in England.
Funding for the test plots had to be sought
through the local authorities which poses its own problems.
There is also no
equivalent S106 planning agreements which can contribute towards these types of
projects.
Are they having to change the way they manage trees and forests? If
so, how and why?
It is hard to establish exactly how French foresters are changing their silvilcultural
techniques within mature/maturing stands within existing woodlands as we did not
visit these sorts of woodlands.
Much effort is being put into establishing which provenances and species are able to
grow in the region.
It has been identified that, at least in publicly accessible sites, that informing the
public of the work that is taking place is a priority.
Combellesac – 55ha farmland/woodland owned by town council
The soils were clearly very thin here with a rocky subsoil, and, in places, rocky
outcrops were evident at the surface of the soil indicating that a tree roots may not
have little room to develop downwards. The lack of a deep soil profile also makes
trees in these situations more prone to the stresses of dry weather.
Much of the site was being allowed to naturally regenerate following abandonment
by a farmer 20 years ago.
The species colonising was mainly native Quercus
species but some hawthorn and chestnut did persist. The site is used mainly for
recreation purposes at the moment (walking/riding) which is currently not a main
objective of the project. But, there is uncertainty over how to use/develop the whole
site. Schools are invited to see the experiment and the site.
The native oak species (largely Q. robur) was a strong coloniser. But, it was pointed
out to use that although it has established well, saplings would establish and then
succumb to water stress very easily. This year was no exception with many saplings
dead due to the very dry spring.
Older oaks in a nearby woodland which had also been allow to naturally regenerate
were approximately 20-25 years old and were only 6m in height, showing the
decreased growth rates in the poorer soil. Older trees were not much bigger.
The crossing of genetic material via different oak species is potentially very easy
naturally. Ideas for actually planting more drought tolerant oak species in natural
stands of oak and allowing genes to mix may be a way of allowing stands to
regenerate with trees of a more suitable genetic make-up. Herve used the phrase
‘Quercus megaspecies’ to indicate these specimens as surviving climate change
with the exchange of suitable genetic material.
The test plot planted on top of the hill incorporated many different oak
varieties/provenances from the Mediterranean region, grown in a nursery in S.
France. (planted at 2-2.5m centres, 2yrs saplings containerised stock). These were
planted directly into the ground with no previous ground preparation in groups of 25
with four reps each in spring 2010 (plants ~£5.00/each, total plot cost (exc.
maintenance ~ £3000.00).
Chemicals are not used to control weed growth around newly planted trees. Hemp
mulch mats are preferred but may not work.
Specifically this plot was looking at whether these oak species could cope with the
conditions presented at this site. There has been high mortality, but survivors will
indicate more appropriate species for future planting schemes.
Combellesac – climate change arboretum
70 species have been planted in a similar experiment to establish which species
grow in the region. Planted in wide spacings in an old wheat field.
Signs will be incorporated into the design of the whole Combellesac site to inform
visitors.
La Roche du Thiel – monastery
Previously planted areas with native, naturalised and exotic species. A study area to
plant trees or establish preferable species.
Conservation de forestier
Various experimental plots and collections. In particular, an experiment looking at
the competitive features of Q. petreae & Q. robur, highlighted that there was an
increase in yield when in competition.
The production of humus in one year
sustained an improved growth rate the following year. Overall it showed that mixing
of species is better than a monoculture – the more uncertain the climate of the
future, the more species diversity is required.
Redun – Pine plantation located in the urban area of Redun.
This is an area of naturalised pine (Maritime Pine - Pinus pinaster) which has been
growing there for at least 50 years adjacent to a population centre. Many of the
locals have grown up with the woodland containing a stand of maturing pine and
have understandably grown attached to the site.
The site is largely used for
recreational purposes and timber production, although a by-product of recent
management works, is certainly not an important management objective.
As mentioned above, the local population were consulted regarding the removal of
potentially dangerous pines adjacent to their houses.
This led to a greater
understanding of why management was needed, particularly with the planting of a
more native/characteristic woodland for the area. The community was involved with
the replanting which is now establishing fairly well. The next step highlighted is that
the community will be involved in the development of the woodland, helping make
management decisions for the next stage of the works.
Some of the re-stocking was undertaken using differing provenances and species
more suitable to the projected climate. Clearly this was discussed and accepted as
an objective for the woodland by the community.
This site and its development is very comparable to sites on the Sefton Coast in the
UK. Almost the same situation has occurred on SMBC land at St. Lukes Road
whereby areas of potentially dangerous CP were felled with consultation to adjacent
house owners. These areas have been planted not with MBL but with young pines.
However, it is the consultation and involvement of the locals that is important.
Perhaps more consideration for different provenances and species should be a point
for consideration during replanting on the coast.
Are all woodlands managed for wood? What are the local markets
for wood? How do they operate? Is the sustainable yield taken?
Most of the woodland sites were managed for community benefits.
There are currently difficulty in marketing conifers and certainly there were no
obvious area of coniferous planting be grown for timber production. The market for
this type of wood used to be for pallet production.
There is a need to adapt
coniferous timber to a new market/climate, perhaps in house construction due to an
increase in the production of timber framed/wooded houses.
Certainly, at the sites visited, timber production was not a major objective. There is
some interest in the timber for the production of houses locally with species such as
oak and wild service (?). It is predicted that in around 50 years time that there will be
the need for much more timber for construction purposes.
Locally firewood is quite important and is the main use of any wood harvested
through management operations. There are many people who have wood burners
and stoves.
Our Learning
Our 2 days provided a great deal of learning for us.
In line with the similar biogeography, the landscape and the forest types were very
familiar to those found in The Mersey Forest. There are many similarities in the focus
of the work in NW France to that of Mersey Forest, but the socio-economic situation
is very different.
Many of the questions that we set before the visit have been answered and in
addition we cam away with a number of new ideas to think about and consider how
we incorporate into our work within ForeStClim.
Nomads – as a concept to try in the UK and the idea that perhaps we need develop
our melange of species in order to insure against the risk not only of the direct
impact of climate change on our forests but also the indirect, such as pests and
diseases moving northward. The idea of experimentation to look at the trees that do
not survive is challenging.
Modelling – the modelling provided by Herve showing projected species survival in a
changed climate for NW France and England provides additional data for us to
enable development of our silvicultural guidance.
Epigenetics – a fascinating area of discussion! But maybe one that is beyond the
scope of ForeStClim?
30