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Challenges of Natural and Manmade disasters: Need for enhanced Maritime Cooperation and response Dr. Ainun Nishat Professor Emeritus Centre for Climate Change and Environmental Research BRAC University Introduction This presentation has five parts: Part I : Introductory comment Part II : Natural Disasters Part III : Man-made Disasters Part IV : Climate Change and Disaster management Part V : Standing Orders on Disaster, Bangladesh Part VI : Concluding remarks Part I : Introductory comment Part I : Introductory comment • Let us first define the geographical territory for which Naval Forces may have disaster management responsibilities: • Indian Ocean and High Seas, and Island States • Coastal belt and coastal Islands • Interior Territory -- small naval vessels may assess. • My experience in Kutubdia, 1991 cyclone. Part I : Introductory comment Some definitions: Disaster : “A serious disruption to a community caused by the impact of an event that requires a significant coordinated response by the Government and other entities to help the community to recover from the disruption. Disaster are usually associated with severe damage to infrastructure and utilities, death, injuries and homelessness and can be wide spread or contained within a particular sector or sub-sector”. Disaster management: “Arrangement for managing the potential adverse risks and includes defining the risk environment, managing the risk environment and responding to the threat environment.” Preparedness: “Measures that are designed to ensure that communities will have knowledge and understanding of their risk environment to enable them to better cope with potential hazards impacts.” Recovery: “Measures that are designed to develop the systems required to support affected communities in the reconstruction of their physical infrastructure and restoration of their emotional, economic and physical well being”. Relief : “Includes money, food, medicine, shelter, cloths and any other public or private assistance provided to people and communities to overcome affects of disaster event.” Part II : Natural Disasters Natural Disasters • Floods – River Flood – Flash flood – Coastal Flood – Drainage congestion • Drought • River and coastal zone erosion • Land Slides Natural Disasters • Storm surges and Cyclones • Tornados • Earthquakes – Tsunami • Volcanic Eruption – Tsunami Natural Disasters • Possible areas of cooperation and collaborative programs – Advanced warning and forecasts – Search and rescue – Distribution of Relief materials – Supply of safe drinking water – Medical assistance On Natural Disasters…. • Among the various natural disasters where maritime cooperation can be really effective are cyclones and storm surges, and Tsunamis. • The entire Pacific zone is vulnerable to such natural disasters. • In Bangladesh, we recall the excellent support given to the local affected communities through Operation Manna and Operation Sea Angel that were carried out after the cyclone of 1991. • Intensity and frequency of storm surges are likely to increase due to global warming. Part III : Man-made Disasters Man-made Disasters • Accidents in ferry operation • Sinking of ships in high seas – Collision between two vessels – Engine failure/ hole in the hull • Spillage of oils due to collision/leakage • Spillage of toxic materials due to leakage/accidents • Disposal of bilge water On Man-made Disasters • Among man-made events, one of the major disasters that could have serious adverse impacts specially on coastal eco-system is oil spillage due to sinking of a oilcarrying Tanker in high sea or in the coastal belt. • Illegal disposal of bilge water by ocean-going vessels in the sea is also a matter of serious worry. • Sinking of ferries in storms, (a natural disaster) or through collision ( a man-made disaster) may need support of naval operation including support from regional agencies. Part IV : Climate Change and Disaster management Is Climate Change real ? • Climate change and climate variability are now real. • A stable situation is not likely to be achieved soon. • The IPCC- 4th Assessment Report (2007) concluded, and reconfirmed by 5th Report in 2013, that global warming is unequivocally the result of human activities. • Scientific consensus is clear; now the whole world collectively needs to urgently focus on what to do about it. • CC has risen to the top of international political agenda as well as national development planning and management • Paris Agreement (December 2015) has set global goals to limit rise of temperature to well below 2oC and preferably to 1.5o C by 2100. Concerns at Global Level Major Global concerns Threat of Food shortage Threat of migration; Livelihood security Increase in intensity and frequency of natural disasters Loss of biodiversity and ecosystem Health security threatened Process of sustainable development affected Coping capacity of LDCs, SIDS and countries in Africa is not adequate Some Definitions…… Climate Change: any change in climate over time. Climate variability: variations in the mean state and other statistics (such as occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the climate on all temporal and spatial scales. Adaptation is a process to cope with the changing environment.. Mitigation is interventions to reduce the sources or enhance the sinks of greenhouse gases. The Past IS NOT the Future Current Trend Un-quantified Risk The Past is the Future Probable adverse impacts Hydro-meteorological events • Increase in annual rainfall • Increase in droughts • Occurrence of short duration heavy rainfall • Rainfall at unexpected time • Rise in temperature • Increase in cyclones and storm surge events Other Impacts • Sea level rise – Increase in salinity in coastal belt – Inundation of coastal plains • Snow melting and GLOFs • Increase in river and coastal erosion • Increase in vector borne disease What is likely to happen Frequency of extreme climatic events will increase e.g. same location will face floods and drought in shorter frequency; Intensity of extreme climatic events will increase; e.g. short duration heavy rainfall specially in urban areas Occurrence of erratic and unusual behaviour of weather will be frequent e.g. rain will occur at unexpected time and will not occur at expected time; Snow and Ice will melt; in the long run the volume of snow melt water will be very low; threat of GLOF will increase; Sea Level will rise; to what level is being debated. Frequency of severe flood on increase About 50 m people exposed to severe and moderate floods Floods during 1987, 1988, 1995, 2002, 2004 and 2007 Severe Droughts in some places while other places are Flooded Drought 24 • The term 'drought-prone' is often used loosely or ambiguously • Only the agricultural drought has been considered • Kharif-I, Kharif-II and Boro drought have been considered and superimposed • The north-west region of Bangladesh is highly affected Urban drainage congestion is on increase due to heavy rainfall. River Erosion rate increasing Storm Surge 27 • Storm surge inundation map is prepared for a SIDR like cyclonic event • South-central region is mostly exposed SIDR’s route Entire coastal belt is vulnerable to Storm Surges and Cyclones. Destruction by Cyclone Sidr Gabura Union, Shyamnagar, Sathakhira: No dry place …. People migrate from Kalabogi Village, Sutarkahli, Dacope. Flood Flood Inundation Inundation Depth Depth Map: Map: Projection Projection Year 2030 Year Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 2050 Flood Inundation Depth Map: Projection Year 21002015 Flood Inundation Depth Map Existing Sea Level Sea Level Rise Rise cm 10 cmCondition Sea Level Rise 3214 cm Sea Level Rise 88 cm No Sea Level Upstream flow: Upstream flow: Upstream flow: Rise Average Year Average Year Average Year Upstream flow: (Year 2000 flow) (Year 2000 flow) (Year 2000 flow) Average Year (Year 2000 flow) Land Level PWD) Land Level (m(m PWD) (m)PWD) PWD) Land Level (m 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.00 7.00-19.00 4.007.00 4.007.00 4.007.00 4.007.00 2.004.00 2.004.00 2.004.00 2.004.00 0.002.00 0.002.00 0.002.00 0.00- 2.00 Inundation Depth (m) Inundation InundationDepth Depth(m) (m) 0.000.15 0.000.15 0.000.15 0.00- 0.15 0.150.30 0.150.30 0.150.30 0.15- 0.30 0.300.30- 0.60 0.60 0.300.30-0.60 0.60 0.600.90 0.600.90 0.600.90 0.600.90 0.901.80 0.901.80 0.901.80 0.90- 1.80 1.803.60 1.803.60 1.803.60 1.803.60 Above 3.60 Above 3.60 Above 3.60 Above 3.60 Parameters: drought, flood and cyclone “ Kadam” in bloom in front of BRAC University; Photograph taken on 15th December 2012 On Climate Change • Adverse impacts of climate change resulting from both ‘slow on-set events’ and ‘rapid onset events’ be given due attention; • There will be increase in intensity and magnitude of various natural disasters; • As well as there will be uncertainties in their occurrence. • All countries are required to develop their NAMA and NAP ( NAPA for LDCs). On Climate Change….. • Sea Level Rise (SLR) and associated increase in salinity is likely to impact low lying Island Sates as well as low lying deltaic areas. • Parts of a country ( may be fully) may be inundated; • It is apprehended that huge population will be displaced. They may have to migrate that will require international level assistance to rehabilitate them. This is being debated under “Loss and Damage” to be finalized in December 2016. Part V : Standing Orders On Disaster, Bangladesh STANDING ORDERS ON DISASTER, BANGLADESH • Standing Orders on Disaster, Bangladesh was first introduced in 1997. It has been updated in 2010. • The SOD outlines the role and responsibilities of the ministries, divisions, agencies, organizations, committees, public representatives and citizens to cope with any natural disaster SOD for Navy • There are separate sections in the SOD for Bangladesh Army, Bangladesh Navy and Bangladesh Air force • The section on Bangladesh Navy is organized under the following headings – Risk reduction – Emergency response • • • • Normal times Alert and warning stage Disaster stage Early recovery and Rehabilitation stages Part V : Concluding remarks Concluding remarks….. • Main objective of this presentation is to flag up various opportunities and options for providing support to states and people living in various islands as well as in low lying coastal regions, in the Indian Ocean and in its rim as they are affected by manmade and natural disasters, during and after such events. • Navy has a major role to play if impacts of a disaster fall within the the geographical territory as suggested earlier. • In Bangladesh, their ‘roles’ have been defined. Concluding remarks….. • In peace time, maritime cooperation, in the form of Humanitarian Assistance and Disaster Relief (HADR) should be in the forefront to provide assistance in the form of collaborations among nation states of Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Concluding remarks… • A few examples where joint efforts could be framed: – advance forecasts and warning on storm surge and cyclones may be shared; – movement of vessels carrying dangerous materials including oil may be monitored; – ‘search and rescue’ operation after a major natural disaster can be launched; – data on tidal characteristics may be shared to monitor impacts of sea level rise, etc. • HADR related activities can act as a springboard for greater cooperative engagements within the IOR. Thank you for your patience