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6th International Scientific Conference
Policy portfolios for emerging economies
EU FP-7 ROMITHEAS -4 Project
“Knowledge transfer and research needs for
preparing mitigation/adaptation policy portfolios”
Development and Assessment of M/A Climate
Change policy portfolios for R. of Moldova
Dr. Ion Comendant,
Institute of Power Engineering ASM
6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Content
Introduction
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IPE Profile
Moldova National Workshop
Project Team Members
Moldova Climate Change policies applied
Climate Change policy mixtures
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Data collection
Characteristics of Scenarios
Results of three scenarios
Assessment of the policy mixtures
Best policy mixture
Needs and gaps observed
Further actions
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Institute of Power Engineering
• IPE ASM was founded in 1991, public institution:
- 28 scientific researchers: including 2 Full Member
of the Academy of Sciences, 8 Doctors of sciences and 9 PhDs.
- Laboratories&Departments: controlled power transmission
lines; simulation and diagnostics of power equipment; Electricpower equipment and power electronics; Energy efficiency and RES
• Research Domain:
- Energy system development planning and optimal operation
- Elaboration of new methods, devices, tools and equipment for
increasing energy efficiency and RES promotion
• IPE Scientific Journal: Regional Energy Problems
- http://ieasm.webart.md/home_ro/
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Moldova National Workshop
• On May 14, 2013 in the framework of PROMITHEAS-4 Project the National
Workshop „Development and evaluation of the M/A policy portfolios for the
R. of Moldova” was organized by IPE in Chisinau, Hotel “Codru”
- 48 participants, including: Gheorghe Salaru, Ministry of Environment; Victor
TVIRCUN, Ambassador, BSEC-PERMIS General Secretary; Vladimir Berzan, IPE
Director; Prof. Dimitris Mavrakis, Project Coordinator; Dr. Popi Konidari
The Workshop agreed on the following conclusions:
1. The Workshop was very helpful for audience by new results obtained
in the domain the project PROMITHEAS-4 was devoted.
2. As a result of trainings devoted to scenarios calculation using LEAP
model, the last was tailored to correspond Moldova specific
conditions, where 96% of energy sources are from import.
3. The list of research needs and gaps identified would help to ensure
pragmatic platform for more accurate outcomes on GHG emissions
calculation in the future.
4. The Workshop recognize that for the purpose of renewable electricity
involvement into the climate change scenarios calculation the lack of
effective balancing power on country territory should be taken into
consideration, their share being put in compliance with this
shortage.
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
PROMITHEAS-4 Moldova Team
■ Total number of Moldova team in the PROMITHEAS-4 project – 6:
● Prof. Mihai Chiorsac, Moldova team general coordinator, tel. 373
69095046, e-mail: [email protected]
● Dr. Ion Comendant, Scientific coordinator, management,
Evaluation of policy portfolios, tel. 373 69217004, e-mail:
[email protected]
● Dr. Vasile Scorpan, Scenarios and policy portfolios, tel. 373
79469883, e-mail: [email protected]
● Marius Taranu, Evaluation of available data and information, tel.
373 69684528, e-mail: [email protected]
● Sergiu Robu, Choice and implementation of models, tel. 373
79477978, e-mail: [email protected]
● Iulia Panfilchina, Choice and implementation of models, tel. 373
68277550, e-mail: [email protected]
6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Data collection
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National Bureau of Statistics, Statistical Yearbooks of the R. Moldova
and Energy Balance for 1990 – 2011;
National Bank of Moldova;
State Hydrometeorological Service of Moldova;
Government Decisions;
Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources;
National Agency for Energy Regulation;
Climate Change Office;
World Energy Outlook 2010, IEA;
World Bank;
UNDP;
United Nations Economic Commission for Europe;
UNEP/Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources;
IPCC, Climate Change.
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Moldova climate change policies applied
■ No specific climate change policies documents are approved up to now.
The existing normative acts are oriented to resolve country priorities,
M/A impact is considered as tangible result.
■ In 2013 both the Low Emission Development Strategy and Climate
Change Adaptation Strategy are planned to be approved. They gather
the actions from all existing first level legal documents that have M/A
impact as well.
■ The main climate mitigation impact is expected to have from the
realization of Energy Strategy up to 2030 approved in 2012, that
promote energy efficiency and RES, including to reach by 2020:
- energy intensity reduction by 10%;
- grid electricity losses reduction up to 11%, grid gas losses by 39%, grid heat losses by 5%;
- energy consumption reduction in buildings by 20%;
- 10% of public buildings renovated;
- the share of annual electricity from renewable energy sources up to 10%.
- the use of energy from renewable sources relative to total gross domestic consumption: 20% ;
- the share of biofuels in total transport fuel consumption: 10%.
6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Scenarios developed
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Three Scenarios
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Business as Usual (BAU);
Optimistic (OPT);
Pessimistic (PES).
Model is applied for calculation
• Time horizon: 2000-2050
• OPT and PES scenarios are oriented to the following national
objectives:
- 20% share of RES in the total energy mix by 2020
- 20% reduction of the total primary energy consumption by 2020, compared to
that of year 2009.
• Only the territory of right bank of river Nistru is considered in
calculation
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Sectors Review
Key
Assumptions
- Population
- GDP
- GDP per capita
- GDP real growth
- GDP per Sector
- Annual
Household
Income
- Climate Statistic
- World Prices for
Resources
Resource
PRIMARY:
- Coal
- Gasoline, Dieel
- Fuel Oil, LPG
- Hydro
Transformation
Demand
- Electricity
Generation
- District Heating
- Losses
- Agriculture
- Household
- Industry
- Transport
- Non Specified
SECONDARY:
- Electricity
- Heat
- Natural Gas
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Key Assumptions for the BAU Scenario
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Population: -0.69% by 2050;
GDP: +5.0% by 2030;
GDP distribution for Industry Sector: 2.5% by 2050;
GDP distribution for Agriculture Sector: 1.5% by 2050;
Import electricity from Ukraine and Transnistria (76%);
No intensification of renewable energy resources usage;
No energy efficiency policy;
 Excessive dependence (100%) on natural gas imported from a
single supplier. Natural gas is widely used for electricity
generation;
 Energy dependence will grow;
 Emissions of greenhouse gases and oxides will increase;
 The BAU scenario is only a mitigation policy portfolio.
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Key Assumptions for the OPT Scenario
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Population and GDP as in BAU Scenario;
GDP distribution for Industry Sector: 3.5% by 2050;
GDP distribution for Agriculture Sector: 2.0% by 2050;
Energy reduction in buildings up to 10% until 2020;
The share of biofuel consumption is expected to reach the level
of 4% in the transport sector by 2015 and by 10% in 2020;
Rehabilitation of existing CHPs with electricity generation
growth;
Electricity imported from Ukraine and Transnistria will decrease
Electricity, heat and natural gas losses in T&D will decrease
Mini hydro stations with a capacity of 1.2 MW are planned to be
built on the Reut River;
Effective energy efficiency policy promotion.
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Key Assumptions for the PES Scenario
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Population and GDP as in BAU Scenario;
GDP distribution for Industry Sector: 2.0% by 2050;
GDP distribution for Agriculture Sector: 1.5% by 2050;
Partial rehabilitation of existing CHPs and growth of
electricity generation;
 Electricity imported from Ukraine and Transnistria will
decrease;
 Electricity, heat and natural gas losses in T&D will decrease;
 Developing renewable energy resources for own needs
(small HPP, wind, biogas and solar power).
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
LEAP Results: Evolution of the Global
Warming Potential
Growth of Total GHG
Scenario emissions, % from 2000
2000
2020
2050
BAU
36
221
Opt
10
191
Pes
15
201
Total GHG emissions
Scenario reduction, % from BAU
2000
2020
2050
BAU
Opt
19
9
Pes
15
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
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Assessment of the policy mixtures
Results of AMS Method applied:
Criteria
Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions (0,833)
Indirect environmental effects (0,167)
Environmental performance (0,168) - A
Cost efficiency (0,474)
Dynamic cost efficiency (0,183)
Competitiveness (0,085)
Equity (0,175)
Flexibility (0,051)
Stringency for non-compliance (0,032)
Political acceptability (0,738) - B
Implementation network capacity (0,309)
Administrative feasibility (0,581)
Financial feasibility (0,110)
Feasibility of implementation (0,094) - C
Total (A+B+C)
BAU
Scenarios
OPT
PES
0
83,300
65,822
16,700
16,700
0
5,060
2,363
0
1,390
1,133
9,947
13,534
19,367
2,179
35,080
13,444
0
83,300
47,300
8,080
3,774
17,500
2,220
1,133
80,007
8,683
19,367
5,424
33,474
76,186
9,342
75,164
7,837
5,060
2,363
13,810
1,390
1,133
31,593
8,683
19,367
3,397
31,447
38,899
• OPT is distinguished by a better performance (grade) in responding to the climate
change policy needs of the country taking into consideration the national
framework.
6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
OPT: Best Policy Mixture
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It is assumed that the share of RES in the electricity generation will be the following:
Wind – 600MW by 2050;
Solar – 600MW by 2050;
Biogas – 50MW by 2050.
The total efficiency of the cogeneration power plant will not be less than 80% and for
electricity production efficiency 45-50%
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Needs and gaps observed: MITIGATION &
ADAPTATION POLICY DATA
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To develop country specific emission factors and methodologies, specifically for
key source and sink categories;
To reduce the inventory uncertainties by improving the statistical data collection
system;
To Enhance quality assurance (QA), quality control (QC) and verification
activities, by setting-up a sustainable MRV system;
RM needs to develop data collection forms and detailed procedures to
establish the legal foundation, guidelines and procedures for annual
preparation of energy balances and other statistic datasets, required for
MARKAL and LEAP models application, according to International Energy
Agency (IEA) and Eurostat guidelines;
RM should develop the required legislation to require the electricity and natural
gas distribution companies to include NACE codes in customer records for nonresidential customers and report energy consumption to National Bureau of
Statistics (NBS) and Ministry of Economy (MoE) by NACE categories;
For the following sectors the data are not available and need extra analyses:
“Frequency of extreme events” index; GDP for the 1990-1998 periods is not available;
“Energy water use (km³)” index is not covered by RM statistical system; Information
about financial incentives, Carbon Taxes, Feed in tariffs, Penalties are not available for
the whole studied period; energy demand cost (in EUR) is not available; Primary and
Secondary fuels lack for the years 1990-1999; a lot of data is lack for Transformation.16
6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Needs and gaps observed: MITIGATION &
ADAPTATION SCENARIOS AND POLICY PORTFOLIOS
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As the country is distinguished by low energy security (70% electricity import)
and low capacity to pay for energy consumed specific studies are needed to
demonstrate the share of affordable renewable electricity to cover power
demand during the years;
The potential for CHP promotion should be determined on country territory
taking into consideration that 4500 hours of high and constant heat demand is
needed to make such PP economical;
Centralize heating demand for the years up to 2050 needs to be revised
because of persisting factors leading the consumers to select autonomous
heating systems;
The total energy demand in BAU scenario is easily estimated, as it is
proportionate to the GDP per capita in the Household sector and to GDP in all
other sectors. However, this estimation is much more complicated in OPT and
PES scenarios, as the effect of specific mitigation measures has to be added.
According to the Energy Strategy up to 2030 the shares of renewable energies, energy
losses and power capacities are pre-established in the national balance by 2020, but
neither the time horizon is sufficient, nor these shares are differentiated per economic
sector;
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there is no studies that would show the limits of sectors technologies
dissemination and what may be the speed of their implementation during the
years up to 2050, Other
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Needs and gaps observed: EVALUATION OF
MITIGATION & ADAPTATION POLICY INSTRUMENTS
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Because of big import of energy resources in the RM, the case study
developed with LEAP model was refined in order to obtain correct outputs:
It was needed to fix the negative production problem in the energy balance, to add a
new “Transformation” module for oil production; the capacity variable was used in that
module to limit the domestic production and set the module to use gap
filling imports for any demand not met by domestic production; the data that specifies
natural gas imports have been removed, etc.
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Build capacities for gathering, analyzing and disseminating climate risk
information, including weather data, climate modeling and impact assessment.
Needs: Study tours and research stays organized with relevant international
centers for climate assessment; Risk maps generated for the three regions of
the country (South, Centre, North), and by sector; High-risk areas identified
and prioritized.
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Develop regional climate change scenarios in the Republic of Moldova for mid
(2020s) and long term (2050s and 2080s) based on Atmosphere Ocean
General Circulation Models (AOGCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs)
Assess risks/opportunities to sustainable development of certain sectors
(agriculture, livestock, water resources, forestry, human health, energy and
transport sectors) due to the increased number and intensity of extremes
events as result of climate change
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Future opportunities
 The results obtained will be used in the preparation of
National Communication: LEAP Model, Data collected,
Gaps and Needs observed, AMS Method, etc.;
 The list of research needs and gaps identified would help
the national experts to promote new studies and works,
in order to ensure pragmatic platform for more accurate
outcomes on GHG emissions calculation in the future;
 The data based compiled will be useful in the process of
restructuring of national official statistical system, in
order the last be in compliance with the EU one
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece
Thank you for your attention
[email protected]
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Status of renewable electricity
promotion
Wind Farms (WF) in the world and Moldova:
■ 24GW în 2001
97 GW în 2010; 37,6 GW in 2010 42 GW in 2011
■ In Moldova no WF electricity generated to the grid is recorded until
now
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WF promotion in Moldova:
To reach 10% renewable electricity by 2020, i.e. around 200MW
Renewable electricity produced is mandatory for buying on the market
Renewable electricity tariff calculation is regulated by the appropriate
Tariff Methodology published in 2009
Until now WF investors have requested access to the grid for around
800MW
Wind technical reserves are around 600-1000MW
Wind Farm promotion challenges
WF main challenges in Moldova:
■ May the consumers support the WF electricity price?
(See: Ion Comendant. The identification of solutions to cover energy demand from renewables.
Regional Energy Problems, no. 2(16), 2011, IPE ASM, pages 39-52)
■ What is the impact of WF promotion for National Power Sector
Development and Operation?
Is WF contributing to
fuel consumption
reduction when
operating in the power
system? If yes, how
much?
If fuel reduction is
recorded how it
influences the
price for
electricity
produced?
How much WF
contributes to
energy security
increase?
WF main features
WFs are distinguished by:
■ very low credit power for the conditions of the R. of Moldova, where
the territory is small and spaces for feasible wind is limited
■ limited interval of working wind speed : 2.5 - 25 m/s. If the speed
is higher than 25 m/s WF is disconnected from the grid, producing
power imbalance in the system
■ for one WF the error for wind forecast is 10-20% for a forecast
horizon of 48 hours and reach up to 100% if the horizon is higher
than 48 h
■ when the wind is lack, another PP should replace WF power, so that
the implementation of WF in Moldova require to ensure such
compensation:
In short term
In medium and
long term
WF operation in time horizon
Short term impact:
•
WF power Imbalance provoked can be covered by balancing power, that is mainly
from import or, partially, from MGRES; The price for balancing power is very
expensive: in 2011 the balancing power higher than 50 MW cost twice more than
predicted power.
CONCLUTION: in short term WFs neither contribute to electricity price
decreasing nor to energy security increase. Even more, WFs construction leads
to decreasing of existing small level of country energy security
Medium and Long term impact:
•
The impact depends on how power sources development will follow:
Two way: 1. Energy strategy way: it establish CHP mainly be built. Lack of
heat demand and practical difficulties to implement cogeneration
PPs impede to realize Energy Strategy option
2. IPE ASM scenario: it combines the construction of diverse PPs
(See: I. Comendant, A. Sula. Impactul factorilor de influenţă asupra scenariilor de dezvoltarea a surselor de
energie electrică. Analele Institutului de Energetică al AŞM. Fascicola 2. Ch.: TAŞM, 2010..207-231.
ISSN 1853-9247. www.ie.asm.md)
What the PPs should be built to cover WF
imbalance?
Gas turbines and combine cycle – the most appropriate PPs:
PPs prioritization to overcome WFs imbalance challenge
Type of Tehnol Start up time parametres
Start up Ramp rate
fuel
ogy
costs
Hot
Cold
Relativ Relative (%
of Relative
start up start up e
flexibility total
flexibility
time
time
flexibilit **
capacity/ **
y**
minute)
Natural Gas
10-40
10-40
++
++
20%++
gas
turbine minute minute
30%
s
Combin 10-40
10-40
++
+
5%-10% +
ed
minute* minute*
cycle
Coal
Minimum
stable
generation
Value
Relative
flexibility**
25%-30%
++
40%
+
Steam
boilers
40-60
minute
1-10
hours
-
-
1%-5%
-
40%-50%
-
Nuclear Steam
boilers
60-120
minute
13-24
hours
--
--
1%-5%
-
50%-60%
--
* After this period a CCGT only has its turbine capacity available.
**The symbols show the relative flexibility of the different technologies; the ++ shows the most flexible least flexible unit technology,
the ‐‐ shows the least flexible unit
Combined Cycle in tandem with WFs
The results obtained:
CCPP 200
MW
52
WF
200MW1
-
CCPP+WF,
400MW
43
Items
units
Efficiency
%
Natural gas reduction
mil. M3
0
1102
64
Price of electricity
produced
US$
c/kWh
12,20
13,601
14,75
Investments
mil. US$
130
300
430
CO2 reduction
mii CO2
0
121
Energy Security
-
2092
Not
ensure3
Ensure
Ensure
Notes
1) Examined without taking into consideration balancing power for WF capacity variation
2) At a PP with 52% efficiency
3) For the Republic of Moldova WF crediting power is taken equal to zero
WF+CCPP verses Coal PP
The results obtained:
■ Investment effort:
from 1500 US$/kW (WF)
+650 US$/kW (CCPP)
to 2150 US$/kW
Performant Coal PP of 200MW
■ Coal PP has higher CO2 emissions then WF+CCPP tandem, But it:
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leads to diversification of the fuel used in the country
Diminish significantly natural gas consumption, coming from one source
Ensure a price for electricity 24% lower than tandem WF+CCPP
Increase country energy security, as coal can be bought around the
world and the reserves are enough for the following 200 years
WF+CCPP verses Coal PP (CPP)
Coal PP CO2 emission problem
■ CPP emits 1304 th. tone CO2 versus 507 th. tone CO2 of CCPP+SE
■ Moldova has the obligation to diminish by 25% CO2 emissions in
2020 in comparison with 1990. In order to be in compliance with the
engagement:
To Build capturing CO2
installation at CPP
To Buy CO2 on the world
market
■ Question: At what price for CO2 the price of CPP=price WF+CCPP
Answer: 57 US$/tCO2 while on the world market it is 8,6 US$/tCO2
Conclusions
For Moldova actual conditions it is much reasonable to
develop Coal PP than to promote Wind Farms or
Photovoltaic Power Plant
Only when own electricity production will reach around
100% of demand capacity WF promotion should become a
goal for country energy strategy
Conclusions (2)
BAU
Total primary energy
consumption compared to that of
year 2009
Increases by
43%
OPT
Reduced by
4%
PES
Increases by
13%
The share of RES in the total
energy mix by 2020
5%
13%
2%
The GHG emissions in 2020,
MtCO2eq
10.8
8.7
9.6
In the OPT scenario the total primary energy consumption is reduced only by 4%. This low
percentage is attributed to the following reasons:
 there is limited information within the country regarding energy efficient technologies
and practices that does not allow the achievement of the required amount of energy
savings;
 aged equipment and infrastructure are responsible for losses and without the necessary
amount of investments there will be gradually higher losses;
 there are not yet official reports concerning the estimation of the potential in energy
savings per sector and activity.
The GHG emissions in 2020 are 8,7MtCO2eq, which is less compared to those of the BAU
scenario.
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6th International Scientific Conference. 9-12 October, 2013, Athens, Greece