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Transition Towns and
Kingston
(Date)
(Presenter)
Context
1. Climate change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC)
• The scientific orthodoxy on climate change
• Established twenty years ago, involves scientific experts from more than 130
countries – latest report over 800 authors, peer-reviewed by over 1,000 more
• Highly reliable and respected data
• Outputs accepted by the governments of the world
• Makes clear that urgent action is needed
Sept 2007 – Fourth Assessment Report:
“If warming is not kept below 2 degrees C, which will require the
strongest of mitigation efforts, and currently looks very unlikely to
be achieved, then substantial global impacts will occur, such as:
species extinctions and millions of people at risk from drought,
hunger and flooding, etc." (my emphasis)
“Slowing and reversing these threats (climate change as outlined by the IPCC)
is the defining challenge of our age” – Ban Ki-Moon, Secretary General of the
United Nations, 17th Nov 2007
“Delaying action for decades, or even just years, is not a serious option.” – Sir
David King, then UK Government Chief Scientific Adviser, writing in Science, 9
January 2004 (nearly five years ago now)
“We have already passed the stage of dangerous climate change. The task
now is to avoid catastrophic climate change.” - Professor John P. Holdren,
Chairman of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, Aug
2006
“If there’s no action before 2012, that’s too late. What we do in the next two to
three years will determine our future. This is the defining moment.” - Rajendra
Pachauri, the scientist and economist who chairs the IPCC, 17th Nov 2007
Shortcomings of the IPCC
• Doesn’t account for all climate feedbacks
• Politically involved
• Slow response to new evidence
(these shortcomings are acknowledged)
CO2 emissions, temperature change, ice melt and sea
level rise are all worsening faster than predicted by
even the worst IPCC scenarios
What do we need to do?
The science says that we not only need to dramatically
and rapidly cut the emissions that are increasing
atmospheric CO2 concentrations, but to actually start
drawing CO2 out of our atmosphere, reducing the current
dangerous atmospheric concentrations of around 387ppm
down to 300-350ppm.
This is possible via means such as increasing soil carbon,
through forest restoration, land use changes and shifts in
agricultural practices.
“I am always surprised when people get
depressed rather than energised to do
something.
It’s not too late to stabilise climate… I am not
about to give up”
– NASA’s Dr. James Hansen, Sept 2007
Context
1. Climate change
2. Resource depletion (peak oil)
What is peak oil?
• The rate of oil extraction from a typical
oilfield roughly follows this curve. The
point of maximum oil flow is known as the
field’s production peak.
•
This peaking concept also applies to regions, countries, and
to the entire world. This global production peak is what is
generally referred to as peak oil. Many experts believe it
happened last summer.
•
The term peak oil is also shorthand for energy resource
depletion more generally (gas, coal, uranium…) and the
challenges associated with this.
Global oil discovery peak: 1965
Source: Colin Campbell, ASPO
Graph prepared by: Richard Heinberg
Data source: International Energy Agency / Energy Information Agency
What are the implications of Peak Oil?
The Hirsch Report – 2005
“...the peaking of world oil production presents the US and the
world with an unprecedented risk management problem.
As peaking is approached, liquid fuel prices and price
volatility will increase dramatically, and without timely
mitigation, the economic, social and political costs will be
unprecedented.
Viable mitigation options exist on both the supply and
demand sides, but to have substantial impact, they must be
initiated more than a decade in advance of peaking”
Hirsch, R.L., Bezdek, R Wendling, R. (2005a.) Peaking of World Oil Production – Impacts,
Mitigation and Risk Management. National Energy Technology Laboratory, US Department
of Energy. (available at: http://tinyurl.com/gqwge)
International Energy Agency –
World Energy Outlook, Nov 2008
“The world’s energy system is at a crossroads.
Current global trends in energy supply and
consumption are patently unsustainable.”
World Energy Outlook 2008
“The future is already here, it’s just
unevenly distributed” ~ William Gibson
United Nations (2007, $60/barrel)
“Recent oil price increases have had devastating effects on
many of the world’s poor countries, some of which now
spend as much as six times as much on fuel as they do on
health. Others spend twice the money on fuel as they do on
poverty alleviation. And in still others, the foreign exchange
drain from higher oil prices is five times the gain from
recent debt relief.
Of the 47 poorest countries in the world, 38 are net
importers of oil, and 25 are fully dependent on imports.”
Sustainable Bioenergy: A Framework for Decision Makers. UN Energy
In brief
• There is no simple techno-fix
• There are many alternative energy options, but
each has its limits and all will require significant
time and major investment.
• We must plan for a future of less energy
• The transition will require public and political will,
planning, and hard work
The ‘Supply Side Dilemma’
The climate change imperative suggests we should ban
all fossil fuel extraction today (i.e. further limit supply)
BUT
We are totally dependent on fossil fuels and doing this
would cause unacceptable suffering
So there is a tension, or tightrope, between addressing
climate change and addressing peak oil.
Renewables help, but…
One thing that helps on all fronts
Reduce demand
(but how…?)
What is needed?
“Large-scale problems require largescale solutions”
?
"Large-scale problems do not require
large-scale solutions; they require smallscale solutions within a large-scale
framework."
~ David Fleming
What is needed?
International Level – Binding agreement
on national carbon/energy budgets
National Level – Implementation
TEQs (www.teqs.net)
---
Local Level – Transition
Towns/Woking/…
Personal Level – Us
Can we respond at the local
level?
• Going up the energy slope, we used
– ingenuity
– creativity
– adaptability
– cooperation
• Going back down…
– if we’re early enough
– if we’re cooperative
– the future could be a
whole lot better…
Who’s doing creative, orderly
energy descent? (1)
Official Transition Initiatives
• Totnes
• Glastonbury
• Penwith (Cornwall)
• Forest of Dean
• Kinsale
• Lostwithiel
• Ivybridge
• Nottingham
• Falmouth
• Wrington
• Moretonhampstead
• Brighton&Hove
• Lewes
• Portobello (Edinburgh)
• Stroud
• Market Harborough
• Ashburton
• Sunshine Coast, Oz
• Ottery St Mary
• West Kirby
• Bristol
• Llandeilo
Who’s doing creative, orderly
energy descent? (2)
Official Transition Initiatives
• Frome
• Presteigne
• Brampton
• Wolverton
• Isle of Wight
• Leicester
• Waiheke Island (NZ)
• Holywood
• Orewa (NZ)
• Westcliffe-on-Sea
• Dunbar
• Isle of Scilly
• Rhayader
• Liverpool South
• Bath
• Norwich
• Exeter
• Tring
• Kingston Upon
Thames
• Crediton
• Boulder, CO (USA)
And who’s mulling it over?
Thousands of “mullers”
• UK
• Ireland
• USA
• Spain
• Italy
• New Zealand
• Australia
• France
• Israel
• Canada
• Mexico
• Uruguay
• Argentina
• Belgium
• Chile
• Czech Republic
• Netherlands
• Switzerland
• Brazil
• China
• Japan
• Poland
How are they organising?
Transition Model

Understanding:
• PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”
• Adaptable, creative,
positive and NOW!

Transition Network

12 Steps – not prescriptive
Transition Model - Step 1
• Set Up a Steering Group and
Design Its Demise from the
Outset
– humility
– stages 2-5
– reforms from subgroups
Transition Model - Step 2
• Awareness raising
– allies and networks
– prepare community
– movies, talks, events
Transition Model - Step 3
• Lay the foundations
– other groups
– existing projects
– official bodies
– businesses
Transition Model - Step 4
• Organise a Great Unleashing
– coming of age
– powerful, passionate,
informative, inspirational
– making connections
– don’t rush it
Transition Model - Step 5
• Form “working groups”
– starting new groups
– bringing in existing groups
– training
– working groups and the
steering group
Transition Model - Step 6
• Use “Open Space”
– shouldn’t work!
– World Café
• Harrison Owen - Open Space
Technology: A User’s Guide
• Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ The Change Handbook: Group
Methods for Shaping the Future
Transition Model - Step 7
• Develop visible practical
manifestations of your project
– not a talking shop
– choose carefully
– lure in fence-sitters
– team building potential
– getting dirt under your fingernails
Transition Model - Step 8
• Facilitate the Great Reskilling
– The most useless generation ever!
– repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural
building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal
walks, gardening, basic home energy
efficiency, making sour doughs, practical
food growing (the list is endless…)
Transition Model - Step 9
• Build bridges to Local
Government
– crucial
– don’t wait too long…
– open door
– Community Development Plan
Transition Model - Step 10
• Honour the Elders
– elders as a community resource
– 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil
scarcity to abundance
– oral history, community
infrastructure
– using their insights to move
forward
Transition Model - Step 11
• Let it go where it wants to
go…
– focus on the questions
– unleash the community
– any sense of control is illusory
Transition Model - Step 12
• Produce and start to implement
the Energy Descent Action Plan
– assess current situation
– create 15-20 year vision for all key
areas and ‘backcast’
– use Transition Timeline
– integrate with community plan if
possible
– start the work
Changing the myth from…
to…
Transition Initiatives have
chosen…
We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future
whether we want to or not. Far better to be riding
that wave than getting engulfed by it.
www.transitionculture.org
Transition Town Kingston (TTK)
Events
Food projects
Six action groups
Meeting local MPs
…
www.ttkingston.org