Download TECHNOLOGY NEEDS ASSESSMENT

TECHNOLOGY NEEDS
ASSESSMENT
ADAPTING TO CLIMATE
CHANGE
WATER RESOURCES
Wednesday 29 June 2005
IPCC TAR
PREDICTIONS
 The effect of climate change on stream-flow and
groundwater recharge varies regionally and
between scenarios, largely following projected
changes in precipitation. In some parts of the
world, the direction of change is consistent
between scenarios, although the magnitude is
not. In other parts of the world, the direction of
change is uncertain.
 Water quality is likely generally to be degraded by
higher water temperature, but this may be offset
regionally by increased flows. Lower flows will
enhance degradation of water quality.
IPCC TAR
PREDICTIONS
 Flood magnitude and frequency are likely to
increase in most regions, and low flows are
likely to decrease in many regions.
 Demand for water generally is increasing as a
result of population growth and economic
development, but it is falling in some
countries. Climate change is unlikely to have a
large effect on municipal and industrial
demands but may substantially affect irrigation
withdrawals.
IPCC TAR
PREDICTIONS
 The impact of climate change on water resources
depends not only on changes in the volume,
timing, and quality of streamflow and recharge but
also on system characteristics, changing
pressures on the system, how the management of
the system evolves, and what adaptations to
climate change are implemented.
 Non-climatic changes may have a greater impact
on water resources than climate change.
 Unmanaged systems are likely to be most
vulnerable to climate change.
IPCC TAR
PREDICTIONS
 Climate change challenges existing water
resources management practices by adding
additional uncertainty. Integrated water
resources management will enhance the
potential for adaptation to change.
 Adaptive capacity (specifically, the ability to
implement integrated water resources
management), however, is distributed very
unevenly across the world.
IPCC TAR
PREDICTIONS
 Global average temperature increased by
0.6 ° C over the last century, while sea levels
rose by 9 to 20 cm.
 The IPCC projects increases in the global
average surface temperature by between
1.4°C and 5.8°C and in sea level by between
9 and 88 cm.
 Sea level rise in combination with hurricane
landfalls presents one of the greatest
climate-related hazards in tropical Latin
America
STRESSES
 Changing land-use and land-management practices
(such as the use of agrochemicals) are altering the
hydrological system, often leading to deterioration in
the resource baseline.
 Changing demands generally are increasing
pressures on available resources, although per capita
demand is falling in some countries.
 The objectives and procedures of water management
are changing too: In many countries, there is an
increasing move toward “sustainable” water
management and increasing concern for the needs of
the water environment
Guide for Assessing Vulnerability
General tools
 IPCC Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for
Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment
– Improves the consistency in the selection,
interpretation, and application of scenarios
(climate, socioeconomic, and environmental) in
climate impact and adaptation assessments.
– User support is provided by IPCC Data
Distribution Centre, which was established to
make freely available a number of global data
sets of baseline and scenario information on
climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic
conditions.
Guide for Assessing Vulnerability
General tools
IPCC Guidelines on the Use of Scenario Data for
Climate Impact and Adaptation Assessment
 The guidelines have four main objectives:
1. introduce and describe the information and
analytical tools being provided by the Data
Distribution Center,
2. offer guidance on how to interpret the baseline and
scenario data held by the DDC and elsewhere,
3. highlight and illustrate the key steps and procedures
commonly required in applying a baseline and
scenario data in impact and adaptation assessment,
and
4. suggest standards for reporting the results.
Guide for Assessing Vulnerability
 Climate downscaling techniques
– Downscaling is a method for obtaining highresolution climate or climate change information
from relatively coarse-resolution global climate
models (GCMs). Typically, GCMs have a resolution
of 150-300 km by 150-300 km. Many impacts
models require information at scales of 50 km or
less, so some method is needed to estimate the
smaller-scale information.
 Statistical Downscaling
– Statistical downscaling first derives statistical
relationships between observed small -scale
(often station level) variables and larger (GCM)
scale variables, using either analogue methods
(circulation typing), regression analysis, or
neural network methods.
Guide for Assessing Vulnerability
Climate downscaling techniques

Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM)
– SDSM is a user-friendly software package designed to
implement statistical downscaling methods to produce
high-resolution monthly climate information from
coarse-resolution climate model (GCM) data. The
software also uses weather generator methods to
produce multiple realizations (ensembles) of synthetic
daily weather sequences.

Dynamical Downscaling
– Dynamical downscaling uses a limited-area, highresolution model (a regional climate model, or RCM)
driven by boundary conditions from a GCM to derive
smaller-scale information. RCMs generally have a
domain area of 106 to 107 km2 and a resolution of 20 to
60 km.
Guide for Assessing Vulnerability
MAGICC/SCENGEN
 MAGICC/SCENGEN is a user-friendly software
package that takes emissions scenarios for
greenhouse gases, reactive gases, and sulfur
dioxide as input and gives global-mean
temperature, sea level rise, and regional climate as
output
Weather generators
 Weather generators are statistical models used to
generate realistic daily sequences of weather
variables — precipitation, maximum and minimum
temperature, humidity, etc
 They are often used in conjunction with other
techniques.
Guide for Assessing Vulnerability
Socioeconomic scenarios
 Developing Socioeconomic Scenarios:
Downscaling from the Special Report on
Emissions Scenarios and Using Proxy
Variables/Indicators
 Adoption of Existing Socioeconomic
Scenarios
 Qualitative and Quantitative Scenarios
Emphasizing Stakeholder Input
Adaptation to Climate Change
 Water management is based on minimization of
risk and adaptation to changing circumstances
(usuallAy taking the form of altered demands). A
wide range of adaptation techniques has been
developed and applied in the water sector over
decades.
 One widely used classification distinguishes
between increasing capacity (e.g., building
reservoirs or structural flood defenses), changing
operating rules for existing structures and
systems, managing demand, and changing
institutional practices.
Adaptation to Climate Change
 The first two often are termed “supply-side”
strategies, whereas the latter two are
“demand-side.” Over the past few years,
there has been a considerable increase in
interest in demand-side techniques.
 International agencies such as the World
Bank (World Bank, 1993) and initiatives
such as the Global Water Partnership are
promoting new ways of managing and
pricing water resources to manage
resources more effectively (Kindler, 2000).
Adaptation Tools
Water Sector Tools for assessing water
resource adaptations to climate change,
focusing on regional water supply and
demand analysis of managed water
systems.
 WaterWare
– This UNIX based software package is an
advanced water resource simulation tool that
incorporates numerous models and analyses
for easy access to advanced tools of data
analysis, simulation modeling, rule -based
assessment, and multi-criteria decision support
for a broad range of water resources
management problems.
Adaptation Tools
 Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP)
– Is a PC based surface and groundwater resource
simulation tool, based on water balance accounting
principles, which can test alternative sets of
conditions of both supply and demand. The user can
project changes in water demand, supply, and
pollution over a long-term planning horizon to
develop adaptive management strategies.
 RiverWare
– A general UNIX based river and reservoir modeling
application with both operational and planning
applications. This system offers multiple solution
methodologies that include simulation, simulation
with rules, and optimization. RiverWare can
accommodate a variety of applications, including
daily scheduling, operational forecasting, and longrange planning.
Adaptation Tools
 Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation (IRAS)
– This tool is a PC based surface water resource
simulation tool, based on water balance accounting
principles that can test alternative sets of conditions of
both supply and demand. The river system is
represented by a network of nodes and links, with the
nodes representing aquifers, gauges, consumption
sites, lakes, reservoirs, wetlands, confluences, and
diversions.
 Aquarius
– A computer model depicting the temporal and spatial
allocation of water flows among competing traditional
and nontraditional water uses in a river basin. The
model focuses on optimization of a nonlinear system,
where supplies and requested demands are prescribed
on the system.
Adaptation Tools
 RIBASIM
– RIBASIM is a generic model package for simulating the
behavior of river basins under various hydrological
conditions. The model package is a comprehensive and
flexible tool that links the hydrological water inputs at
various locations with the specific water users in the
basin. RIBASIM enables the user to evaluate a variety of
measures related to infrastructure and operational and
demand management, and to see the results in terms of
water quantity and flow composition.
 MIKE BASIN
– For addressing water allocation, conjunctive use,
reservoir operation, or water quality issues, MIKE BASIN
couples the power of ArcView GIS with comprehensive
hydrologic modeling to provide basin -scale solutions.
The MIKE BASIN philosophy is to keep modeling simple
and intuitive, yet provide in-depth insight for planning
and management.
Adaptation Tools
 SPATIAL TOOLS FOR RIVER BASIN
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT
(STREAM)
– STREAM is a spatial hydrological model that allows for
assessing hydrological impacts due to changes in
climate and socio economic drivers.
– STREAM is set up according to a policy analytic
framework and ensures a structured approach for an
entire river basin including the coastal zone.
– STREAM uses hydrological input data, scenarios,
adaptive strategies and provides output data on water
availability and (salt water) quality.
– It integrates within this frame several types of
interactions between effects of river management on the
coastal zone, land and water uses such as short term
deforestation and dam building, and long term impacts
of climate change.
LAST WORDS
 Scientists have documented climate-change induced
changes in some 100 physical and 450 biological
processes.
 In the Russian Arctic, higher temperatures are melting the
permafrost, causing the foundations of five-story
apartment buildings to slump.
 Worldwide, the rain, is often more intense. Floods and
storms are more severe, and heat waves are becoming
more extreme.
 Rivers freeze later in the winter and melt earlier. Trees
flower earlier in spring, insects emerge faster and bird lay
eggs sooner.
 Glaciers are melting. The global mean sea level is rising.
The rate of climate change expected over the next 100
years is unprecedented in human history.
http://www.unep.org/themes/climatechange/