Download Impact of Sea Level Rise - Virginia Ship Repair Association

Adapting to Sea Level Rise
Joseph F. Bouchard, Ph.D.
Captain, U.S. Navy (Ret.)
Presentation to the
Virginia Ship Repair Association
June 21, 2011
Overview
• Impact of Sea Level Rise
• Adaptation Strategies
• Adaptation Efforts in Hampton Roads
Focus on Sea Level Rise
The Historical Record: Sea Level Rise in Chesapeake Bay
Projected increase through 2100:
About 0.7 to 1.6 m (2' 4" to 5' 3")
Source: Chesapeake Bay Program Science and Technical Advisory Committee (STAC), “Climate Change and the
Chesapeake Bay: State-of-the-Science Review and Recommendations,” April 21, 2008, pp. 18, 81.
Sea Level Rise in Chesapeake Bay
Is It Accelerating?
Source: John Boon, Ph.d., “Sea Coast And Sea Level Trends,” 2008, pp. 4, 5. Dr. Boon is Professor Emeritus,
Virginia Institute of Marine Science, College of William and Mary, School of Marine Science
USGS Coastal Vulnerability Index
The Coastal Vulnerability Index shows the relative
vulnerability of the coast to future rise in sea-level.
Most of the Virginia Coast is Very High Risk.
Source:
US Geologic Survey, “National Assessment of Coastal Vulnerability to Sea-Level
Rise: Preliminary Results for the U.S. Atlantic Coast,” U.S. Geological Survey OpenFile Report 99-593. E. Robert Thieler and Erika S. Hammar-Klose, Woods Hole,
Massachusetts, 1999. http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/1999/of99-593/
Mid-Atlantic Region is Especially Vulnerable
Rising sea level and the potential for stronger storms
pose an increasing threat to coastal cities,
residential communities, infrastructure, beaches,
wetlands, and ecosystems. The potential impacts to
the United States extend across the entire
country: ports provide gateways for transport of
goods domestically and abroad; coastal resorts and
beaches are central to the U.S. economy; wetlands
provide valuable ecosystem services such as water
filtering and spawning grounds for commercially
important fisheries.
In the mid-Atlantic region from New York to North
Carolina, tide-gauge observations indicate that
relative sea-level rise (the combination of global sealevel rise and land subsidence) rates were higher
than the global mean and generally ranged between
2.4 and 4.4 millimeters per year, or about 0.3 meters
(1 foot) over the twentieth century.
U.S. Climate Change Science Program, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea-level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region, pp. 1-2
January 16, 2009. http://www.climatescience.gov/Library/sap/sap4-1/final-report/#finalreport
Risk to Hampton Roads from Sea Level Rise:
#2 in the United States
Risk to Hampton Roads from Sea Level Rise:
#10 in the World
Absolute vs. Relative Sea Level Change
The Difference Matters a lot in Hampton Roads
• Absolute
• Observed change in sea level rise caused only by changes in
sea level
• Relative
• Observed changes in sea level rise cause by two factors:
• Change in sea level
• Change in ground level
• Relative sea level is more
important in Hampton Roads
because of subsidence – the
land is sinking as sea level rises
• Causes of subsidence:
• Tectonic plate tilting
• The Chesapeake Crater
• Ground water depletion
Impact of Sea Level Rise (I)
Inundation
Impact of Sea Level Rise (II)
Shoreline Erosion
Impact on the Insurance Industry
The Insurance Industry is Factoring Sea Level Rise into Risk Assessments
Impact on Norfolk
Norfolk & Portsmouth
Hurricane Storm Surge
Sea level
Rise
Increases
Storm Surge
Impact on the Virginia Beach Oceanfront
Source: Skip Stiles, Wetlands Watch
Impact on the Northrop Grumman Shipyard
Adaption Recommendations
Governor’s Commission on Climate Change
Adaptation and Sequestration Working Group
Recommendations
• Acquire high resolution topographic data for all of
coastal Virginia (LIDAR)
• Base all State and Local planning on:
• Temperature increase of approximately 3.6°F
• Sea level rise of 2.3 feet, but tailored to local
relative sea level rise
• Greater instability in weather patterns and
precipitation
• Closely monitor trends and adjust policies as
necessary
Adapting to Sea Level Rise:
Protect
Adapting to Sea Level Rise
Accommodate
Adapting to Sea Level Rise
Retreat
Adaptation Efforts in Hampton Roads:
Hampton Roads Planning District Commission
Climate change will be one of the
greatest challenges for
Hampton Roads, the United
States, and the world to deal with
over the next century. Climate
change is already occurring and
will continue to have large
impacts on populations around the
world.
Planning for climate change now
may help mitigate its impacts
while also reducing the costs of
any necessary adaptation.
http://www.hrpdc.org/Documents/Phys%20Planning/2010/Climate_Change_Final_Report_All.pdf
Norfolk has Launched Adaptation Planning
Transportation Risk Assessment
Langley Air Force Base: Protect
Daily Press
Langley AFB wants $5.5 million in flood protection
By David Macaulay
April 7, 2010
Langley Air Force Base is seeking more than $5 million in
federal funds to protect it against storm surges that have
caused massive damage at the base in past years.
Projects:
• Shoreline stabilization: “Living shoreline”
• Replace existing seawall
• Reinforcement under takeoff and landing
zones
Hurricane Isabel Flooding at Langley AFB, September 2003
Naval Station Norfolk Piers: Accommodate
As sea level has risen over the last 60 years, utilities
suspended beneath old single deck piers have
become increasingly vulnerable to damage from sea
water immersion and are less accessible for
maintenance.
Utilities suspended
from upper deck.
21 feet above sea level
On old single deck piers
utilities are suspended
below the deck, close to
the water.
Images Source: Naval Facilities Engineering Command, Atlantic Division
https://portal.navfac.navy.mil/portal/page/portal/navfac/navfac_ww_pp/navfac_navfaclant_pp/tab36140/piers.pdf
We Have Been Warned!
Rear Admiral David W. Titley, Ph.D.
Oceanographer of the Navy
Director, Task Force Climate Change
“Climate Change and the U.S. Navy”
December 2, 2010
Old Dominion University
Conclusions
Regardless of what you may think about the causes of climate change,
remember this:
• Sea level rise and inundation increase can be seen and measured in
Hampton Roads – they are happening now.
• DOD and the Navy take it seriously and are already spending
hundreds of millions to adapt to sea level rise and inundation.
• Economic loss from failure to adapt is much greater than the cost of
adaptation. Adaptation planning is long overdue.
• Effective adaptation plans will have an increasing impact on the
competitiveness of shipyards.
• The Navy is already looking into the impact of inundation on
shipyards and ship repair contracts.
Shipyards that adapt will win,
shipyards that fail to adapt will fail.
Questions?
Navy Task Force Assesses Changing Climate
By Bob Freeman, Special to American Forces
Press Service, July 31, 2009
Rapidly diminishing sea ice, melting glaciers,
rising sea levels, increased storm severity -- all are
possible consequences of a climate that mounting
evidence suggests is changing significantly.
As the scientific community works to understand
the changing climate, the chief of naval operations
has created a task force, headed by Rear Adm.
David Titley, the Navy's senior oceanographer, to
better understand and evaluate its implications for
maritime security.
“Task Force Climate Change was initiated … to
assess the Navy’s preparedness to respond to
emerging requirements, and to develop a sciencebased timeline for future Navy actions regarding
climate change,” Titley explained in a July 28
interview.
Two merchant ships transit Northeast Passage
Summer 2009
Climate Change in Coastal Virginia
Air and Water Temperature
By 2080~2100
Air temperature increase of about 3.6° F,
range of 2.5° F to 5.3° F
Sea Level Rise
By 2100:
About 1 m, range 0.7 to 1.6 m
(About 3’4”, range 2' 4" to 5' 3”)
Unstable Weather Patterns
Variability in precipitation patterns
Frequency of extreme weather events
Intensity of extreme weather events
Major Storms in H.R., 1970-2008