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Hurricane Sandy Follow-up Vulnerability Assessment & Resilience Study 2016 Annual Meeting of the Metropolitan Area Planning (MAP) Forum North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority December 16, 2016 Heather Holsinger FHWA Sustainable Transportation and Resilience Team 1 Hurricane Sandy Study Background • Builds on a FHWA 2011 NJ pilot • Learn from experience of 2012 Hurricane Sandy and identify strategies to improve resiliency • Research project launched in Fall 2013 SLR 1 Meter, 2100, Coastal Study Area (Roadways). Source NJTPA 2 Hurricane Sandy Study Partners • Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) • Federal Transit Administration (FTA) • State Departments of Transportation in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut • Metropolitan Transportation Authority • Port Authority of New York & New Jersey WCCOG Western Connecticut Council of Governments • Metropolitan Planning Organizations: • New York Metropolitan Transportation Council • North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority • Western Connecticut Council of Governments • Connecticut Metropolitan Council of Governments Consulting Team: – Cambridge Systematics – AECOM – Abt (Stratus Consulting) – Office of Radley Horton – C2E 3 Hurricane Sandy Study Objectives • Enhance the tri-state region’s resiliency to climate change and extreme weather in the longer term, while informing the ongoing Hurricane Sandy recovery process • Identify feasible, cost-effective strategies to reduce and manage extreme weather vulnerabilities amid the uncertainties of a changing climate • Advance the state of knowledge and develop methods to assist agencies in the tri-state region—and nationwide—to plan and invest for long-term climate resilience 4 Key Elements of Work Plan Task 3: Regional, multi-modal damage/disruption assessment based on recent storms Task 4: Asset-level assessments – Test engineering-based adaptation assessment process on 10 assets – All three state DOTs, PANYNJ, MTA, two counties Task 5: System-level vulnerability and risk assessment – Regional vulnerability analysis (primarily exposure) – “Mesoscopic” application of vulnerability and risk assessment process; one each in CT, NY, and NJ 5 Task 3 - Regional Damage and Disruption Assessment • Analyzed historical data from recent storm-related damage and disruption – Sandy, Irene, Lee, and Storm Alfred (nor’easter) • Collected information on existing climate projections • Conducted gap analysis of climate data to inform our assessment of future scenarios 6 7 C L I M AT E CHANGE Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets • Test the EngineeringBased Adaptation Assessment Process • Provide case studies and detail to process • Develop useful adaptation strategies for each asset Task 4 – Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets Task 4 - Engineering Assessment and Adaptation Analysis for Transportation Assets • 10 Transportation Assets – 6 in New York, 3 in New Jersey, 1 in Connecticut – A mix of bridges, highways, a port, and a railroad track • Range of Climate Stressors Covered – Sea level Rise and Storm Surge (7 assessments) – Extreme Precipitation (2 assessments) – Extreme Heat (1 assessment) • Range of Adaptation Strategies Proposed – Physical modifications (e.g., installation of seawalls) – Updating regulatory guidelines (e.g., updates to zero thermal stress temperature, updates to IDF Curve) 10 Engineering-Based Adaptation Assessments: Example: Loop Parkway Bascule Bridge, NY Source: NYSDOT Rehabilitation of Loop Parkway over Long Creek, 1991 and AECOM, 2014. 11 Task 5: Regional Transportation System Vulnerability Assessment • Work Products – GIS input files and outputs of analysis – Climate projections – Compilation of other reports and resources • Intent – Provide information and resources so that agencies can conduct their own follow-up analyses – Help identify candidates for subareas assessment Regional Vulnerability Overlays - SLOSH Regional Vulnerability Overlays – NFHL Transportation System Criticality # NHS 1 l 2 l 3 l 4 l 5 l 6 l 7 l 8 l 9 l 10 l 11 l 12 l 13 l 14 l 15 l 16 l 17 l 18 l 19 l 20 l 21 l Evacuation Rt. Reg. Freight Reg. People Intermodal Hub Subarea Selection Criteria • • • • • Range of geographies and climate impacts One per state Relatively high vulnerability Avoiding duplication of effort Usefulness of results Subareas Selected Norwalk-Danbury Corridor Long Island South Shore Raritan Bayshore 17 Task 5: Mesoscopic Analysis of Adaptation Strategies in Vulnerable Subareas • Work Products – More detailed vulnerability and risk assessment, including benefit-cost analysis of adaptation strategies • Intent – Demonstrate how a vulnerability and risk assessment process can be performed at a “mesoscopic” level – Bridge the gap between system-level analysis and asset-specific assessment Next Steps • Finalize project work products and report (December 2016) • Stakeholder Review (December 2016-January 2017) • Report release (Target late February 2017) 19 HURRICANE SANDY STUDY AND BEYOND • FHWA Goal: Mainstream consideration of climate change vulnerability and risk in transportation decision making • Hurricane Sandy project is informing our collective understanding on integrating climate resilience at multiple levels 20 Planning Project • Regional Long Range Transportation Plans • Corridor Analysis • Engineering • Design Operations and Maintenance • Emergency Relief • Asset Management CPlans L I M AT E CHANGE Thank you! • For more information: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/environment/climate_change/adaptation/ongoing_and_current_ research/hurricane_sandy • My Contact Info: Heather Holsinger [email protected] 21