Download 4. Kenneth G Cassman: Climate change, biofuels, and global food

ANALYSIS OF BIOFUEL BASED MOBILITY IN HUNGARY
Adam TOROK PhD, KTI-Institute for Transport Science, +3613715806, [email protected]]
Zoltan PETRES PhD, SZTAKI- Computer and Automation Research Institute of Hungarian Academy of Sciences
Overview
The weather is becoming hectic, the possibility of weather extremeness and caused damage is increasing and the related future
response reactions' risk has reached that rate, which already jeopardizes not only the ecosphere’s but the econosphere interest
already. The continually increasing population, the rising economic activity, the lack of energy and the permanent race for the
rise of economic prosperity, led us to that rate, which is already environmentally unsupportable. Transportation sector has an
important role, because it is not only polluting the environment, but because of our social and economic structure it is the sector
that can hardly change because of the big social resistance. This sector can be changed into an environmental friendly,
sustainable one only if the regulator has correct data (quality and quantity as well). In the international literature the most
focused and related topics are fuel consuming reduction and the reduction of fuel based environmental impacts. One way of
reduction is to change our fuel from fossils to biofuel at least partly. In our article we examined the fossil fuel dependence of
Hungary, the biofuel dependence of Hungary and the price of crops. Our aim in this paper is to analyze the correlation of
control possibilities of such econometric phenomena with mathematic tools.
Methods
A cybernetic model of market equilibrium with two concurring products had been built up to estimate the effect of increasing
share of transport related renewable energy sources pushed by the social will to protect the environment. As the cultivation area
cannot be extended significantly further more in Hungary we have to considering the current technology and price to limit the
supply of transport related renewable energy sources because the price of food grain significantly increased as the demand and
price of biofuel. We have collected and analysed the monthly based time series of grain prices in Hungary from 2001 to 2007.
Results
In Hungary the cultivation area cannot be extended significantly further more. By considering the current technology we have
only limited supply and cultivation area. Therefore, the price of food grain will increase as the demand and price of biofuel will
be higher. Analyzing this term we have found that the prices of agricultural products (wheat and corn basically) are increasing
approximately 2 HUF/year. Although we found that from 2005 they are increasing more rapidly, by 11 HUF/year, because of
the heavy investment in bioethanol production in Hungary. So there has been a dramatic change in price of food grains because
of biofuel production. Biofuel production, that is mainly demanded by transport sector has an enormous effect on food security.
Conclusions
In many crops, pollination fails if temperatures rise above a critical threshold, which can result in dramatic yield reductions due
to very small changes in temperature. Also, because climate change is predicted to increase both average temperature and
temperature variability, changes in both factors must be evaluated in experiments with realistic growth conditions to fully
understand climate change impact on crop yields. The experience with ethanol in Brazil could be replicated in other developing
countries, because many of these countries already have sugarcane plantations and could gradually start to produce alcohol fuel
both for domestic supply and, later on, for export. However, environmental an food security aspects must be taken into account
as well. The viability of crop-based biofuels as a climate change mitigation strategy depends strongly on the magnitude of the
land use change adder. More research and methodological development is urgently required in this area to guide commercial
development and public policy.
References
1.
2.
Crabbe E et. al.: Biodiesel production from crude palm oil and evaluation of butanol extraction and fuel properties 2001
Process Biochemistry, Volume 37, Number 1, September 2001, pp. 65-71.
Ma F, Hanna M A.: Biodiesel production: a review 1999 Bioresource Technology, Volume 70 pp. 1-15.
3.
4.
5.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
11.
13.
Council for Agricultural Science and Technology: Convergence of agriculture and energy: Implications for Research
and Policy 2006, CAST Commentary QTA 2006-3 (Ames, Iowa: CAST).
Kenneth G Cassman: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security 2007- Environmental Resource. Letters,
Volume 2, 3pp.
Veronika FORGACH, Adam TOROK, Maria Magdolna SZABO, David B. KANTOR: Welfare aspects of renewable
energy – IAEE conference Istambul
Michael Wang: Learning from the Brazilian biofuel experience 2006–- Environmental Resource. Letters, Volume 1,
2pp.
KA Small, K Van Dender: Fuel Efficiency and Motor Vehicle Travel: The Declining Rebound Effect 2007, Energy
Journal, vol. 28, no. 1, pp. 25-51.
Stern, Nicholas: The economics of climate change : the Stern review, 2007, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge,
UK. ISBN 9780521700801.
Oil Depedence: Is transport running out of affordable fuel? 2008, – OECD, International Transport Forum – Joint
Transport Research Center.
D G Infield: Renewable energy technology from underpinning physics to engineering application 2008 - Journal of
Physics: Conference Series 105.
Kenneth G Cassman: Climate change, biofuels, and global food security 2007, - Environmental Research Letter,
Volume 2, 3pp.
AZ Abdullah, N Razali, H Mootabadi and B Salamatinia: Critical technical areas for future improvement in biodiesel
technologies 2007 Environmental Research Letter, Volume 2, 6pp.
RJ Plevin and S Mueller: The effect of CO2 regulations on the cost of corn ethanol production 2008, Environmental
Resource Letter, Volume 3, 9pp.