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Climate Change and Its Impacts on Water Resource Management in the Southern Highlands of Tanzania R.Y.M. Kangalawe* and E.T. Liwenga Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam,P.O. Box 35097, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania. Corresponding author email: [email protected] ABSTRACT This paper presents findings from studies conducted in the southern highlands of Tanzania to assess the impacts of climate change/variability on natural and socio-economic environments. Climate change and variability seem to have considerable impacts on water management issues and community livelihoods in the study areas and other parts of the world, particularly Africa. Data collection included household interviews, focus group discussions, historical timelines, resource mapping, and transect walks. Quantitative data was analyzed using the statistical package for social science. Qualitative data were triangulated with community members during participatory discussions. Results from these studies indicate a progressive decrease of water flows in rivers and streams, and drying-up of some wetlands. Several rivers and streams have increasingly become more seasonal as compared to the past. Natural springs have also decreased in water discharge or dried up completely. Consequently, these water sources have decreased in their reliability. Climate change, featured as the main driver of such changes particularly associated with declining amounts of rainfall, shortened rainy seasons, delayed onset of rains, increased incidences of drought and increasing temperatures. Unreliable rainfall in upland areas due to changing climate has resulted in increased dependence and expansion of agriculture into wetlands during the last few decades. Among the consequences of increased wetland use have been deforestation, loss of biodiversity, and drying and/or shrinking of affected wetland ecosystems. Climate change is also locally perceived to have reduced the overall amounts of water coming into the wetlands, causing them to dry much earlier in the dry season than it used to be in the past. This means that crop cultivation in such wetlands cannot be extended much into the dry season as was in the past. This has limited the agricultural productivity in these areas thereby affecting the community livelihoods, which are largely dependent on agriculture. However, in seasons with above normal rains some of these wetlands are flooded. These findings point to the need for having appropriate water resource management strategies to ensure environmental sustainability and community livelihoods especially within the context of changing climate. Keywords: Climate change, community livelihoods, environmental sustainability, water resource management, southern Tanzania. 1. Introduction Climate is highly variable in Sub-Saharan Africa, with the variability being also spatially diverse due to factors such as topography, closeness to water bodies, land use, among others. Water resources are inextricably linked with climate, so the prospect of global climate change has serious implications for water resources and regional development (Riebsame et al., 1995). East Africa is not shielded from global environmental change. The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, for instance, have become irregular and of shorter durations. Both climatic and global environmental changes have resulted in deterioration of water quality, declining agricultural productivity and loss of biodiversity. These have serious implications on the livelihoods of the people and the environment (Hulme, 1996). While climate change is a global phenomenon, its negative impacts are more severely felt by poor people because of their high dependence on natural resources, and limited capacity to cope with climate variability and extremes (IPCC, 2001; Sperling, 2003). In Tanzania, extreme climatic events such as droughts and floods have often resulted in crop damages and failure (Liwenga, 2003; Kangalawe and Liwenga, 2005); and in combination with other factors, may lead to chronic food shortages in areas affected. Historical record show a warming up of approximately 0.7oC over most of Africa during the 20th century, an increase of rainfall in east central Africa and a decrease over large portion of the Sahel region. The mean rainfall is reported to have decreased by 20 to 49 percent in the Sahel region between the period 1931-1960 and 1968-1997 and generally 5-10% across the rest of the continent (Matondo, 2008). The continent has also experienced severe droughts and flood during the 20th century. A decrease in the average discharge in most rivers in Africa has also been observed. The surface area of Lake Chad decreased from 50,000 km2 in 1963 to 5000 km2 to date and has affected millions of people whose livelihoods depended on it (Matondo, 2008). Climate change and variability have impacts on the people’s livelihoods and natural ecosystems. Different communities adapt differently to global changes issues such as climate change. This paper is based on studies undertaken in Mbozi and Mbinga districts in the southern highlands of Tanzania. Among the objectives of these studies were to assess the impacts of climate change/variability on both natural and socio-economic environments, particularly their impacts on natural systems such as water resources, rural development and people’s livelihoods. It also addresses issues of vulnerability and adaptation strategies among communities, and how resource management strategies ensure environmental sustainability and community livelihoods within the context of changing climate. 2. Methodology Four villages were involved in the studies reported here, namely Nyimbili and Ntungwa in Mbozi district and Buruma and Lundo in Mbinga district. Nyimbili and Buruma represent the highland agroecological settings while Ntungwa and Lundo represent the lowland villages (Kangalawe and Lyimo, 2006; Liwenga et al., 2007; Lyimo and Kangalawe, 1997; Maro et al., 2008). The data were collected using participatory rural appraisal (PRA) techniques, which included focus group discussions, resource ranking and transect walks. Details of these methods are described in Chambers (1992) and Mikkelsen (1995). The aim of the PRAs was to capture aspects such as water resource management, history of climate related events, communities’ perceptions of climate change and variability, and identification of mechanisms for coping with climate change/variability. Discussions concerning background information were undertaken with agricultural and natural resource management experts in respective districts. These were followed by discussions with key informants in each of the study villages, including village leaders and elders. Household interviews were also undertaken using structured questionnaires, and involving a sample of 10% of the village households. The data was analyzed using the Statistical Package for Social Science, and the sustainable livelihood framework was used as an analytical tool to understand the adaptive capacities. The sustainable livelihood framework takes the recognition of different assets and entitlements from which people draw their livelihoods. The primary data was complemented by secondary data sources from literature and relevant authorities in the study areas. 3. Results and Discussion 3.1 Climate change and the state of the water resources in the southern highlands of Tanzania There is considerable evidence showing that climate change is taking place in the southern highlands and other regions of Tanzania. While climate change is scientifically defined as serious disruption of the entire world’s weather and climate patterns, local people’s perceptions on climate change is based on certain elements of climate. Locally climate change was linked to the following elements: (i) Changes in rainfall patterns and amount over years or months – which affect agricultural production; (ii) Reduction of river flows and water level in most rivers as experienced in present days; (iii) Decreasing water availability for domestic and agricultural uses - reduced water availability also make people to walk long distances to fetch water; (iv) Increased incidences of drought, causing drying of 2 some vegetation particularly trees - availability of wild fruits also becomes difficult; (v) Changes and variations in temperature such as cooling and warming over years; (vi) Increased wind speeds above normal - which destroys property including houses and crops; (vii) Increased sunshine experience in recent days compared to previous; and (viii) Outbreak of some specific diseases (for instance, the once malaria-free highland regions are no longer so. These local indicators of climate change are similar to those reported by many scholars as impacts of climate change and variability on natural resources and rural livelihoods. The local perception of climate change depends very much on the social characteristics of the society and biophysical environment. Locally, the link between climate change and water resources is anchored on the notable reduction of river flows and water levels in most rivers as experienced today, and the perceived decrease in water availability for domestic and agricultural uses. The other concern is the reported increase of droughts that also negatively affect the water availability. Among the important goods provided by the environment is water resource. During interviews water was mentioned to be for domestic use, irrigation, construction and fish farming/aquaculture. In most of the villages studied water for domestic use was reported to come from naturally flowing streams and traditional wells. In some instances water is directed to the homesteads and crop fields using traditional canals, particularly in Mbinga District. However, the water quality in rivers and streams was considered by the local communities to be not so good, mainly attributed to, among other things, siltation and pollution from agrochemicals applied in farms surrounding the water bodies. Generally the aquatic ecosystems and associated water resources are very important to the livelihoods of the local communities, especially from the ecological goods and services that they provide (e.g. water, food, pasture, medicinal services, cultural services, and micro climate moderation). For instance, in the vicinities of Lake Nyasa and Lake Rukwa, fishing is the major income earning activity to the communities around. Wetlands are also important for agriculture especially for paddy and horticultural crops. Increasing demand for agricultural land resulting from population increases has changed the status of the ecosystems of both Mbozi and Mbinga districts. Between 1967 and 2002 the population of Mbozi district almost quadruped while that of Mbinga districts almost tripled during the same period (Figure 1). The population density in these districts is also very high, in some places reaching 120 persons per square kilometre, particularly in highlands. Expansion of farmland and tree cutting for fuelwood and other uses have negatively affected the environment, and have increased deforestation of the already scarce forests (Knight, 1974; Maro et al., 2008). In some places, this has consequently led to soil erosion. Further environmental degradation has resulted in frequent floods in the lowland areas, associated with increased runoff in highlands, while at the same time some water sources are drying up as a result of insufficient groundwater recharge. 3.2 Trends in water resources The impacts of climate change/variability have been reported for both the natural and the socioeconomic environments. Regarding the impacts of climate change/variability on the natural environment, villagers in Mbozi District associated them with changes of dry and rainy seasons. Communities in the study areas are also concerned with the variations in amounts, onset and ending of rainfall especially during the last forty-five years (Table 1). Such changes were reported to have both negative and positive influence on water availability for different purpose. For instance, in situations of good rains water becomes more available for various uses while in times of drought it becomes scarcer, making the undertaking of water-dependent livelihood activities very difficult. Interviews during focus group discussions and household surveys revealed that many of the key aspects of ecosystem services, such as biodiversity and forest covers, wildlife and water resources were rapidly declining. These trends reflect potential threats associated with environmental degradation. Declining water resources was reported to be largely characterised by decreasing water 3 flows in rivers and streams, decline of fish catch in the lake and rivers as well as drying up of some wetlands. Furthermore declining water resources was also reflected by the reported decrease in the incidences of floods. The local concern about diminishing water resources is also supported by global experiences. For instance, IPCC (2001) reported that trends in regional per capita water availability in Africa over the past half century show that water availability has diminished by about 75%. Population growth and degradation of water quality are considered as significant threats to water security in many parts of Africa, and the combination of continued population increases and global warming impacts is likely to accentuate water scarcity in sub-humid regions of Africa (IPCC, 2001). As a step towards sustainable land and water management in the study areas there are trees planting campaigns through afforestation programme, and the people seemed to be sensitized and well motivated. However, only few villagers had actually planted the trees, as reported by respondents in Buruma (53%) and Lundo (62%) villages. One of the long-term consequences of the tree planting activities would be the contribution towards conservation of water resources, which is expected to improve water flows in streams and rivers, and improving its quality. 3.2.1 Changes in wetlands resources Wetlands, like other ecosystems with water resources have undergone considerable changes over the last few decades, mainly associated with increased use of such areas for agricultural purposes. Interviews conducted in the study areas revealed that wetlands have either shrunk in size or dried up completely as reported by about 38.2% of respondents. However, in seasons with above normal rains these wetlands are subject to flooding, as expressed by about 18% of the respondents (Figure 2). This was particularly a concern among villagers in Buruma where rivers such as Ruhekei pass. The other reported change in the wetlands was that as a result of increased cultivation the natural biodiversity has progressively declined, and is being replaced by the less diverse agro-ecosystem, as expressed by 21.2% of respondents. Nineteen percent of respondents claimed that there has been no change in the conditions of wetlands of the study areas. While this may be true in some parts it may be a reflection of the shorter time duration that such respondents have lived in the respective areas, or an indication of low environmental awareness among such respondents. The major drivers of change in the wetlands of the study areas are presented in (Table 2). The most critical ones included population pressure (46.1%) and the expansion of cultivation as expressed by 26.1% of the respondents. It was reported that recurrent drought, attributed to climate change, has forced farmers to cultivate in valleys bottoms and wetlands where soil moisture and water is readily available during most parts of the year. However, climate change was reported to have reduced the overall amounts of water coming into these wetlands, causing them to dry up much earlier in the dry season than it used to be in the past. This means that crop cultivation in such wetlands cannot be extended much into the dry season. The latter may have negative impacts on the livelihoods of communities that depend on such wetlands for crop production. The fact that only few respondents associated the declining water resources to climate change indicates a low level of awareness of environmental concerns among the community members. If this is the case then it reflects to the need for more awareness raising on environmental issues in the future so as to increase their capacity to detect and explain the changing conditions. Increased awareness may also improve the local adaptive strategies. The impact of climate change on wetland utilisation seems to be a genuine concern, and has also been reported in other parts of Tanzania. For example, in the Kilombero Valley and Usangu Plains the changing climate has limited wetland cultivation to the early parts of the dry season (Kangalawe and Liwenga, 2005; Lyimo, 2005). The wetlands areas, locally known as vinyungu in the southern highlands, are regarded to have high potential for dry season crop production (Majule and Mwalyosi, 2005). 4 Land scarcity in other parts of the landscape and the desire to grow off-season crops such as vegetables to feed the ever increasing population were reported to be other drivers for the increased need to cultivate these wetlands. The other factors of change included poverty and government policies and deforestation. Government policies and directives have indirectly impacted on the wetland utilisation. Programmes such as the Urgent Strategy on Land Conservation and Water Catchments Programme implemented in various parts of the country, including the southern highlands, has restricted cultivation in the hilltops and water catchments, compelling those who obtained a living from such parts to move to lowlands, including the wetlands. 3.2.2 Changes in conditions of river systems Also reported were notable changes in the river system in both study areas. However, the changes were not uniformly distributed, with some villages reporting to be more severely affected than others. Ntungwa and Lundo villages, for instance, were found to have a serious problem of decreasing water flow, as expressed by 34.5% of respondents. This was locally associated with climate change and catchments degradation in the upland areas. Similarly, there were notable increases in the seasonality of rains in all villages concerned (Table 3). The changes in the river system also included loss of riverine vegetation that was attributed to the increased cultivation in the valley bottoms. Discussions with stakeholders at regional and district levels in Mbeya region, where Mbozi district is located, revealed that generally many water courses in region have dried-up, while few were reported to remain with very little water flowing especially during the dry season. Natural Resources Officials interviewed in Mbeya reported that in some districts in the region, e.g. Mbarali and Chunya, the rainfall seasons have been shortened to only about three months per year, with seasonal fluctuations, including late start of rains, all attributed to climate change. The amounts of rainfall have also exhibited considerable annual and monthly fluctuation over the years (Figure 3 & 4). Figure 4 depicts that the long-term annual average rainfall has not changed much. However, there have been considerable variations throughout the seventy-year period of the presented data. Such variations could be representing what the studied communities referred to as climate change. This has been one of the locally perceived causes for reduced water flows in river systems. Falkenmark et al. (1990) argue, however, that although the climate change often referred to when explaining water shortages globally may be a myth. Indeed, a scrutiny of the rainfall data of the past 60 years in Mbeya indicates that while there have been erratic variations in the quantity of rainfall, there is no evidence to suggest that precipitation rates have changed. Other changes reported in the study areas include riverbank erosion resulting from cultivation undertaken close to the riverbanks, thereby causing siltation of water courses. Other reported causes of changes in river flows were deforestation and population pressures. Deforestation was locally seen as a major concern as reported by about 43% of respondents. The tree planting being undertaken in some villages, such as Lundo (32.8%) and Buruma (27.3%) was found to have a positive impact by improving the vegetation cover in the landscape, with consequent increase in water flow in the rivers making it more perennial mainly by protecting the water catchments. Local perceptions of changing conditions are also reported in other parts of the world. For instance, Mehta (2001) reported that communities in Gujarat, India identified several symptoms and empirical evidence of environmental change. The symptoms included increasing salinity of the soils and sea water ingression in coastal areas; dwindling water aquifers; and species loss due to the planting of the exotic salt-resistant species such as Prosopis spp. Under such conditions of dwindling water resources, cultivators experience difficulties in getting reasonable crop yields while pastoralists face a 5 growing paucity of fodder and forage (Mehta, 2001). As highlighted earlier, some of these symptoms were also identified by communities in the areas for the current study. 3.2.3 Trends in natural springs Many natural springs in the study areas have decreased in water discharge. Some of the natural springs were reported to have dried up while others are still drying. At the same times some of the natural streams associated with these springs have become more seasonal (15.7%), discharging water largely during the rainy season and becoming dry for a larger part of the dry season. Buruma respondents (32.6%) were more concerned with this problem. Overall these responses indicate that natural springs and associated streams are progressively decreasing in their reliability, mainly attributed to climate change and increased destruction of water catchments. Climate change featured as the main cause for changes in natural springs, being associated with declining amount of rainfall and the rather unpredictable patterns. Insufficient rainfall during the rainy season reduces groundwater recharge, which may subsequently lead to reduced discharge from the springs. Similar effects may result from deforestation that often leads to surface runoff and limited water infiltration into the soil, thus limited groundwater recharge. The impacts of climate change on natural springs, agriculture and on livelihoods have also been reported in Kilombero valley (Kangalawe and Liwenga, 2005) and in Mbozi district (Liwenga et al., 2007). These works reported local concerns on declining water resources associated with climate change. The findings from the studies currently being reported are quite similar, indicating that the changing climate has broadly altered the discharge in natural springs as well as streams and rivers. Agricultural expansion which leads to deforestation and in some cases surface runoff and soil erosion were reported to cause siltation and drying up of some springs. In addition, inappropriate methods of water abstraction from the springs were also reported to cause destruction of springs. It was pointed however that protection of some water catchments has been instrumental in ensuring that the natural springs continue providing water, as expressed by 8.6% of respondents. Such positive attributes to conservation are fundamental to achieving environmental sustainability especially within the context of climate change. Thus climate change issues need to be mainstreamed in all water resources management plans. 3.2.4 Changes in conditions of lakes and fish ponds Some respondents (13%) in Mbinga district perceived that there has been a decrease in the water level in the lakes, associated with declining fish catch. A similar concern was raised during discussions with Natural Resources Office in Mbozi district and subsequent responses from Ntungwa respondents. In Mbozi it was indicated that siltation of parts of Lake Rukwa (a short distance from Ntungwa village) and subsequent spreading of lake water were among the factors for reduced wildlife populations in the area, as some migrated outside those areas, except the water loving animals. In Mbinga district, a considerable proportion of respondents in Lundo (50%) and Buruma (20.2%) perceived that there was a decrease in fish catch. The major causes of change in the lake conditions were reported to be low rainfall associated with climate change (12.8%), population pressure (27%) and over fishing and use of illegal fishing gears (54.2%). The decrease in fish catch was reported by respondents to be largely due to the use of illegal gears and increasing fishing pressures associated with increasing number of fishermen. Villagers in Ntungwa and Nyimbili also reported an expected increase in fish production in ponds in case water is adequately available. This was the case especially in the highland villages where fish ponding has increased in the recent years. 3.3 Enhancing Local adaptations 6 Findings from this study point to the need for having integrated management strategies for land and water resources within the context of changing climate. Experience suggests that the best way to address climate change impacts, particularly on the poor, is by integrating adaptation responses into development planning. For that to be successful adaptation strategies should build upon, and sustain, existing livelihoods and thus take into account existing knowledge and coping strategies. It is in this context that indigenous knowledge systems used in agricultural soil and water management, for example the Matengo pits system in Mbinga District need to be promoted. Proactive land and water management policies can further help in reducing deforestation and other natural resources degradation thereby avoiding the risks associated with further climate change. There is also need to enhance environmental awareness especially on the importance of environmental conservation and benefits that are derived from the ecosystems. 4. Conclusions Climate change and variability have considerable impacts on water resource management issues and on the socio-economic environment. The paper has demonstrated that water resources are deteriorating in terms of decreasing water flows in rivers and streams. Several rivers and streams have increasingly become seasonal, while others are drying up much earlier in the dry season as compared to the past. Similar experiences are evident with natural springs which have significantly decreased in water discharge or dried up completely. Consequently, the reliability of these water sources has progressively decreased. Climate change, featured as the main cause of such changes mainly associated with declining amount of rainfall and the rather unpredictable patterns. Wetlands have equally been affected by impacts of climate change, exposing them to increased cultivation. Among the consequences of increased wetland use have been deforestation, loss of biodiversity and drying up and/or shrinking of the sizes of affected wetlands. Furthermore, climate change was reported to have reduce the overall amounts of water coming into the wetlands, causing them to dry up much earlier in the dry season than it used to be in the past. This means that crop cultivation in such wetlands cannot be extended much into the dry seasons. Proactive land and water management policies can further help in reducing deforestation and natural resources degradation thereby avoiding the risks associated with further climate change. There is also need to enhance environmental awareness campaigns especially on the importance of environmental conservation and benefits that are derived from the ecosystems. Acknowledgement The authors would like to thank all members of the communities for their enthusiasm and sharing knowledge on environmental change and climate change issues based on their local experiences. Special thanks are due to villagers in Ntungwa, Nyimbili, Buruma and Lundo villages. Further knowledge on environmental change issues was obtained through discussions with various stakeholders at both regional and district levels. References Chambers, R., 1992. Rural Appraisal: Rapid, Relaxed and Participatory. Discussion Paper No.311. Institute of Development Studies, Sussex. 90p. Falkenmark, M., Lundqvist, J., Widstrand, C., (1990). Coping with water scarcity. Implications of biomass strategy for communities and policies. Water Resources Development 6(1), 29-43 Hulme, M., 1996. Climate change and southern Africa: An exploration of some potential impacts and implications in the SADC Region. Climate Research Unit, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK. 7 IPPC, 2001. Climate Change: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Cambridge University Press, UK. Kangalawe, R.Y.M., Liwenga, E.T., 2005. Management of wetlands in the Kilombero Valley, Tanzania. Chapter 7. In: Sosovele, H., Boesen, J., Maganga, F. (Eds.). Social and environmental impact of irrigation farming in Tanzania: Selected cases. Dar es Salaam University Press, pp 134-166. Kangalawe R.Y.M., Lyimo, J.G., 2006. Local knowledge and its role in sustainable agriculture in the southern highlands of Tanzania: a case of the Matengo pit cultivation system of Mbinga District. Chapter 7. In: Komba, A.A. (Ed.). Sustainable development and the environment in Tanzania: Issues, experiences and policy responses. Organisation for Social Science Research in Eastern and Southern Africa (OSSREA), Tanzania Chapter, Dar es Salaam. pp 99-116 Knight, C.G., 1974. Ecology and Change: Rural Modernization in an African Community. Academic Press. New York, San Francisco and London. Liwenga, E.T., 2003. Food insecurity and coping strategies in semiarid areas: the case of Mvumi in central Tanzania. Dissertation No. 11, Stockholm Studies in Human Geography, Department of Human Geography, Stockholm University. Liwenga, E.T., Kangalawe, R.Y.M., Lyimo, J.G., Majule, A.E., Ngana, J.O., 2007. Research protocols for assessing the impact of climate change and variability in rural Tanzania: Water, food systems, vulnerability and adaptation. Research Report Submitted to International START Secretariat, Washington DC. Lyimo, J.G., 2005. Changes in agricultural land use and household production in Tanzania: A case of smallholder farmers in the Usangu Plain. PhD Dissertation, University of Copenhagen. Lyimo, J.G., Kangalawe, R.Y.M., 1997. The role and dynamics of traditional farming systems in agricultural sustainability: The case of Matengo pits and Ufipa mounds systems. Research Report No. 100. Institute of Resource Assessment, University of Dar es Salaam. Majule, A.E., Mwalyosi, R.B.B., 2005. Enhancing agricultural productivity through sustainable irrigation. A case of vinyungu farming system in selected zones of southern highland, Tanzania. In: Sosovele, H. Boesen, J. and Maganga, F. (Eds.). Social and environmental impacts of irrigation farming in Tanzania: Selected Cases. Dar es Salaam University Press, Dar es Salaam. Maro, P. S., Kangalawe, R. Y. M., Lokina, R. B., Makota, V., Mapinduzi, A. L., Muyungi, A. M., Sikaona, A., Nkondola, G. J., Mdaki, P. M., Kunyanja, M., Sumani, M., 2008. Integrated ecosystem assessment of the Livingstone Mountain ranges in Mbinga District, Tanzania. Research Report submitted to the National Environment Management Council (NEMC), Dar es Salaam. Matondo, J.I., 2008. Assessment of Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change and Variability on the Water Sector in Africa. Paper Presented At the First African Water Week, Sheraton Hotel, Tunis, Tunisia, 26-28 March 2008 Mehta, L., (2001). The Manufacture of Popular Perceptions of Scarcity: Dams and Water-Related Narratives in Gujarat, India. World Development 29 (12), 2025-2041. Mikkelsen, B., 1995. Methods for development work and research: A guide for practitioners, New Delhi: Sage Publications. 296p. Mpeta, E.J., 2009. Expected climatic changes in Tanzania. Paper presented at the Research Project workshop on Impacts of Climate Change on Water Resources and Agriculture – and Adaptation Strategies in Vietnam and Tanzania (CLIVET), Belinda Hotel, 12-13 January 2009. Riebsame, W.E., Strzepek, K.M., Wescoat Jr., J.L., Perritt, R., Graile, G.L., Jacobs, J., Leichenko, R., Magadza, C., Phien, H., Urbiztondo, B.J., Restrepo, P., Rose, W.R., Saleh, M., Ti, L.H., Tucci, C., Yates, D., 1995. Complex river basin management in a changing climate. pp 57-91. In: Strzepek, K. and Smith, J. (Eds.). As Climate Changes: International Impacts and Implications. Cambridge University Press. Sperling, F., (ed.) 2003. Poverty and Climate Change: Reducing the Vulnerability of the Poor through Adaptation. Inter-agency report by the African Development Bank (AfDB), Asian Development Bank (ADB), Department for International Development (DFID, UK), Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ, Germany), Directorate-General for Development European Commission (EC), Ministry of Foreign Affairs - Development 8 Cooperation (DGIS, The Netherlands), Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), and the World Bank. Available at: http://www.unpei.org/PDF/Poverty-and-Climate-Change.pdf. (Viewed on 21/03/2008). 9 Table 1. Locally observed changes of climatic conditions in Nyimbili and Ntungwa villages Weather Before independence IndependenceAfter Villagisation to date conditions (<1961) Villagisation (1961-1974) (after 1974) Nyimbili Ntungwa Nyimbili Ntungwa Nyimbili Ntungwa Rainfall Enough, Very high, Enough, well Average Less, Inadequate amount (and well evenly distributed poorly (after 1980s) distribution) distributed distributed. distributed Onset of September November November Decembe December December rains r End of rains June May March-April May March April Warm Normal Average Normal (warm Average Higher Temperature weather (warm or or cold temperature has (Temperatur cold according to since 1980s increased e) according season) (August to season) October) Wind Normal Average Normal Average Strong Strong wind winds (JanFeb, July August) Droughts Few Not often, Few Not often Frequent, Occurs very (occurrence) occurs after especially often (after 6-7 years since 2-3 years) 1990’s Floods No Very often No Average No Very few incidences. 10 Table 2. Locally perceived causes of changes in wetlands Driver of Change Percentage Population pressure 46.1 Expansion of cultivation 26.1 Climate change 15.0 Poverty 5.7 Government policies 3.7 Deforestation 3.3 Total 100 11 Table 3. Locally perceived changes in river systems Type of Change Percentage Decreasing water flow 34.5 Increasing seasonality 28.7 Increasing river bank erosion 14.8 Loss of riverine vegetation 7.9 Floods 6.2 No changes 7.9 Total 100 12 Figure Captions Figure 1. Population of Mbozi and Mbinga districts (1967 - 2002). Source: Compiled from Census Reports 1967-2002 Figure 2. Locally perceived changes in wetlands. Figure 3. Mean monthly rainfall (mm) for two agro-ecological zones in Mbozi district. The data for Mbimba Experimental Station cover the period from 1956-1967, while that of Mkulwe Mission covers the period from 1945-1964.Source: Computed from Knight (1974) Figure 4. October-May rainfall in Mbeya from 1940-2008. Source: Mpeta (2009) 13 Figure 1. 600.0 Number of People (000) 515.3 500.0 Mbozi Mbinga 404.8 400.0 331.7 271.8 300.0 235.4 196.2 200.0 147.5 144.1 100.0 0.0 1967 1978 1988 Year 14 2002 Figure 2 Percentage of Respondents 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Shrinkage or drying up Increased Cultivation Floods during rainy seasons Loss of biodiversity Locally perceived changes in wetlands 15 No changes Figure 3 Amount of rainfall (mm) 300 250 Mbimba Experimental Station (Highland) 200 Mkulwe Mission (Lowland) 150 100 50 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Month 16 Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Figure 4. Mbeya Oct-May Rainfall Totals (1937-2006) R2 = 0.03 1500 Oct-May TrendLine Mean 1400 1300 Rainfall (mm) 1200 1100 1000 900 800 700 600 500 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Period in Years 17 1990 2000