* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of
Climatic Research Unit documents wikipedia , lookup
Climate governance wikipedia , lookup
Global warming wikipedia , lookup
Citizens' Climate Lobby wikipedia , lookup
Economics of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate sensitivity wikipedia , lookup
General circulation model wikipedia , lookup
Climate change adaptation wikipedia , lookup
Solar radiation management wikipedia , lookup
Media coverage of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Scientific opinion on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Public opinion on global warming wikipedia , lookup
Climate change feedback wikipedia , lookup
Attribution of recent climate change wikipedia , lookup
Instrumental temperature record wikipedia , lookup
Physical impacts of climate change wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming wikipedia , lookup
Surveys of scientists' views on climate change wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in the United States wikipedia , lookup
Effects of global warming on human health wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and agriculture wikipedia , lookup
Years of Living Dangerously wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Saskatchewan wikipedia , lookup
Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment wikipedia , lookup
Climate change in Tuvalu wikipedia , lookup
Climate change, industry and society wikipedia , lookup
Climate change and poverty wikipedia , lookup
Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of Uzbekistan ) 1 1 National Circumstances • Uzbekistan is a transition economy country with a high rate of population growth (1.8%) • Of the total volume of consumption of primary energy sources, gas accounts for 80.8%, oil products - for 15.8%, coal - for 2.1%, and hydropower - for 1.3% (1997) • Over the recent decades the efficiency of energy use has decreased • The country is located in an arid zone of Asia, with desert and semi-desert accounting for 70% of its territory; agriculture is based on irrigated farming • The country has already been experiencing conditions of a significant deficit of water resources, the Aral Sea crisis is the most acute problem 2 National Circumstances •Uzbekistan features very high level of antropogenic pressure on natural resources throughout all its territory nearly total volume of river runoff is utilized for irrigation degradation of cultivated land is observed (intensive salinization, all kinds of soil erosion) as a result of irrigation water deficit ; shrinking and degradation of natural pastures are taking place biodiversity is decreasing, whole ecosystems are damaged and many an inhabitation are destroyed (Amudarya delta) natural ecosystems and agriculture have become more vulnerable to climate changes • • • • • 3 Direct and reciprocal relations among Climate Change problems in Uzbekistan Human activity Climate change Decline of biodiversity Land degradation Reduction of water resources 4 Antropogenic Aral Sea reduction in the past few decades Uzbekistan Irrigation zones Nowadays the agriculture of Uzbekistan suffers water scarcity Intensive runoff utilization for irrigation is the reason for Aral Sea reduction 5 Assessment of Vulnerability of River Watershed to Natural Changes in climatic parameters shows a decrease in the run-off at a rise of air temperature а) 3 Q, м /с 350 300 250 1000 900 800 700 600 Годовой 500 Вегетационный 400 сток 300 200 100 a) 0 Ььь 200 150 100 50 0 б) Q, м3/с 1 2 3 1 Годовой Вегетационный сток 2 3 б) а) Changes in water inflow into Charvak (а) and Nurek (b) reservoirs in case of increase in air temperature 1 – air temperature norm 2 – increase temperature on 2C in October -September 3 – increase temperature on 2C in October -March Under current conditions, water resources shortages in Uzbekistan, even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic problem 6 Assessment of climate change impact on water resources of Uzbekistan Integral assessment of flow formation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers has been obtained by use of a mathematical model of river runoff formation at relevant climatic scenarios. 120 100 80 78.5 76.1 78.5 75.3 60 Амударья 62 47.1 Сырдарья 40 20 0 37.9 39.4 37.9 37.1 32.2 27.3 Norma R2030 GFDL GISS UKMO CCCM Main conclusion: Neither from a climatic scenarios don’t shown a increasing of water resources in future. Decrease of the run-off in the river basin at vegetation period reinforces a shortage of water resources for irrigation, that it have negative effect to crop productivity Q norm 70 60 Norma 50 GFDL GISS 40 UKMO 30 CCCM 20 calculation 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Месяцы (с октября) 8 9 10 11 12 Temperature in Uzbekistan An air temperature rise will intensify the process of ice degradation and ice reserve reduction in mountain rivers 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 Observation data for 1968-1998 shows that the Abramov Glacier has lost 21 m of its mass in water equivalent ( 18% of mass ) To 2020 is expected to lose additional 17% of its ice 9 CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN THE 2nd PART OF XX CENTURY For 1957 – 1980 Pamir-Alay glaciers has lost 113 км3 (19%) of water reserve Amudarya R. 10 •In the present time drought in region formulates due of precipitation deficit •As example, 2000 in Uzbekistan was extremal drying year ( 68.6% from norm) •In future a decrease of snow and ice share of N 2000 year water reserve arises an additional threat of resumption of exremal drying years Now important to research the timely frameworks of possible sustainable water resources shortage in Aral Sea Basin in accordance with new GHG emission scenarios Ano1320 • 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 W > 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 100 - 120 120 - 140 >160 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 Многолетние изменения годовых сумм осадков (% от нормы 1961-1990гг) E S 1940-1969 Such factors as drought and human-induced changes (the existing irrigation techniques and the global warming) are inter-related, which fact increases their negative impact 1.5 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999 Change of annual temperature anomaly in Uzbekistan 12 Isl1 S MM < 500 500 - 575 575 - 650 650 - 725 725 - 800 > 800 1970-1999 Changes in the Potential evaporation in different 30-year periods (June - August) 1940-1969 An assessment of changes in the Drought Index has permitted to compare objectively aridity tendencies in various parts of territory and in different seasons S S 1 1970-1999 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 1927 Changes in the Potential evaporation in different 30-year periods (September-November) 1937 1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 Changes in the annual values of the Drought Index registered at the Chimbai (Aral Sea area) and 13 Tamdy ( Kyzylkum Desert) 1997 The following conclusions may be drawn based on the analysis of computed aridity indicators characteristic of the territory of Uzbekistan: climate aridity is clearly manifested in the territory of Uzbekistan; more obvious tendencies towards climate aridity are traced in summer and autumn, with a high temporal variability; the largest share is contributed into the annual trend of aridity increase by the summer season. The exposed tendencies may intensify land degradation now in progress in the country, decreasing quality and quantity of water reserves 14 Ratio of yield in a certain year to maximum yield Changes in crop yelds in Kapakalpastan y/ymax 1 rice 0,9 0,8 0,7 cotton 0,6 0,5 0,4 0,3 0,2 0,1 maize годы 0 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Trend of crop yield designates by land degradation Fluctuation of crop yield - by climatic conditions 15 Possible drop in yield (%) of cotton in case of an increase in the number of high temperature days Provinces Khorezm Kapakalpakstan Namangan Jizzak Syrdarya Samarkand Fergana Andijan Surkhandarya Kashkadarya Tashkent % Bukhara 16 0 5 10 15 20 25 Most important from biological indicators of land degradation is vegetation cover In the connection wit it for separate regions of the country (as example, Karakalpakstan,including Aral Sea and Amudarya delta, and others) needs the following: to study of contribution values of climate change to land salinity in Uzbekistan to conduct the complex researches of crop yield trends arising by water deficit, salinity soil and climate change to develop concrete recommendations on location of agriculture crop in accordance with climatic conditions in the future to estimate climate change impact to biodiversity reduction • • • • For last 25 years in separate regions of Uzbekistan is observed sustainable decrease of desert pastures, especially in Aral Sea region. 17 Число дней Duration of hot period 90 70 50 Observation data shows significant change in steady dates of the hot (t >25°C) and cold (t <10°C) periods 30 10 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 Число дней Heating period 175 165 155 145 135 125 115 105 1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 18 It will be possible to increase energy consumption for air conditioning but will decrease it for heating ( Samarkand ) Observation period 1961-2000 Climate Change and vulnerability indicators observed in Uzbekistan • Significant air temperature rise • Changes of duration of cold and warm periods • Increase of probability of thermal stress on human, animals • • • • 19 plants Reduction of crop yield and pastures related with climate change and land degradation Shortage of water resources called by climate change and unsustainable water use for irrigation Outputs An observation data for last years shows that in present time in Uzbekistan is observed dangerous changes in climatic system Climate change negative consequences put up on extent problem of land degradation and water resources deficit In Uzbekistan adaptation options are related to optimization of use of water and land resources: • Solving the water supply problem and securing guaranteed water availability at the source • Reconstruction of water-distribution and irrigation systems • Application of water-saving technologies in agriculture • Introduction of drought-resistant high-yield crop varieties • Reclamation of degraded land, including cultivated lands and natural pastures 20 • • • • Underestimation of existing threat may lead to strong negative consequences in the country For decision of climate change problem in Uzbekistan important the following: authentic assessment past changes, improvement of climate observation system, development early warning system of dangerous weather events (drought, dust storms, strong precipitation and others) integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate change, development of adaptation measures Main and more difficult direction of climate change enabling activity are development and implementation of measures on greenhouse gases emission reduction 21