Download Climate Change problems in Aral Sea basin ( example of

Climate Change problems
in Aral Sea basin
( example of Uzbekistan )
1
1
National Circumstances
• Uzbekistan is a transition economy country
with a high rate of population growth (1.8%)
• Of the total volume of consumption of
primary energy sources, gas accounts for
80.8%, oil products - for 15.8%, coal - for
2.1%, and hydropower - for 1.3% (1997)
• Over the recent decades the efficiency of
energy use has decreased
• The country is located in an arid zone of
Asia, with desert and semi-desert accounting
for 70% of its territory; agriculture is based
on irrigated farming
• The country has already been experiencing
conditions of a significant deficit of water
resources, the Aral Sea crisis is the most
acute problem
2
National Circumstances
•Uzbekistan features very high level
of antropogenic pressure on natural
resources throughout all its territory
nearly total volume of river runoff is utilized for
irrigation
degradation of cultivated land is observed
(intensive salinization, all kinds of soil erosion) as a
result of irrigation water deficit ;
shrinking and degradation of natural pastures are
taking place
biodiversity is decreasing, whole ecosystems are
damaged and many an inhabitation are destroyed
(Amudarya delta)
natural ecosystems and agriculture have become
more vulnerable to climate changes
•
•
•
•
•
3
Direct and reciprocal relations among Climate Change
problems in Uzbekistan
Human
activity
Climate
change
Decline
of biodiversity
Land degradation
Reduction
of water
resources
4
Antropogenic Aral Sea
reduction in the past few
decades
Uzbekistan
Irrigation zones
Nowadays the agriculture of Uzbekistan suffers water
scarcity
Intensive runoff utilization for irrigation is the reason for Aral
Sea reduction
5
Assessment of Vulnerability of River Watershed to Natural
Changes in climatic parameters shows a decrease in the run-off
at a rise of air temperature
а)
3
Q, м /с
350
300
250
1000
900
800
700
600
Годовой
500
Вегетационный
400
сток
300
200
100
a)
0
Ььь
200
150
100
50
0
б)
Q, м3/с
1
2
3
1
Годовой
Вегетационный
сток
2
3
б)
а)
Changes in water inflow into Charvak (а) and Nurek (b) reservoirs in case
of increase in air temperature
1 – air temperature norm
2 – increase temperature on 2C in October -September
3 – increase temperature on 2C in October -March
Under current conditions, water resources shortages in Uzbekistan,
even a small but stable reduction of these resources presents a drastic
problem
6
Assessment of climate change impact on water
resources of Uzbekistan
Integral assessment of flow formation of the Syrdarya and Amudarya
rivers has been obtained by use of a mathematical model of river runoff formation at relevant climatic scenarios.
120
100
80
78.5
76.1
78.5
75.3
60
Амударья
62
47.1
Сырдарья
40
20
0
37.9
39.4
37.9
37.1
32.2
27.3
Norma
R2030
GFDL
GISS
UKMO
CCCM
Main conclusion: Neither from a climatic scenarios
don’t shown a increasing of water resources in future.
Decrease of the run-off in the river basin at vegetation period
reinforces a shortage of water resources for irrigation, that it
have negative effect to crop productivity
Q
norm
70
60
Norma
50
GFDL
GISS
40
UKMO
30
CCCM
20
calculation
10
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Месяцы (с октября)
8
9
10
11
12
Temperature in Uzbekistan
An air temperature rise
will intensify the process
of ice degradation and
ice reserve reduction in
mountain rivers
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
Observation data for 1968-1998
shows that the Abramov
Glacier has lost 21 m of its
mass in water equivalent
( 18% of mass )
To 2020 is expected to lose
additional 17% of its ice
9
CHANGES OF THE PAMIR-ALAY GLACIATION EXTENT IN THE 2nd PART
OF XX CENTURY
For 1957 – 1980 Pamir-Alay glaciers has lost
113 км3 (19%) of water reserve
Amudarya R.
10
•In the present time drought in region
formulates due of precipitation deficit
•As example, 2000 in Uzbekistan was extremal
drying year ( 68.6% from norm)
•In future a decrease of snow and ice share of
N
2000 year
water reserve arises an additional threat of
resumption of exremal drying years
Now important to research the timely
frameworks of possible sustainable water
resources shortage in Aral Sea Basin in
accordance with new GHG emission scenarios
Ano1320
•
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1933
1939
1945
1951
1957
1963
1969
W
> 40
40 - 60
60 - 80
80 - 100
100 - 120
120 - 140
>160
1975
1981
1987
1993
1999
Многолетние изменения годовых сумм осадков (% от нормы 1961-1990гг)
E
S
1940-1969
Such factors as drought and
human-induced changes
(the existing irrigation
techniques and the global
warming) are inter-related,
which fact increases their
negative impact
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
1933 1939 1945 1951 1957 1963 1969 1975 1981 1987 1993 1999
Change of annual temperature
anomaly in Uzbekistan
12
Isl1
S
MM
< 500
500 - 575
575 - 650
650 - 725
725 - 800
> 800
1970-1999
Changes in the Potential evaporation in
different 30-year periods (June - August)
1940-1969
An assessment of changes in
the Drought Index has
permitted to compare
objectively aridity tendencies
in various parts of territory
and in different seasons
S
S
1
1970-1999
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
1927
Changes in the Potential
evaporation in different 30-year
periods (September-November)
1937
1947
1957
1967
1977
1987
Changes in the annual values of
the Drought Index registered at
the Chimbai (Aral Sea area) and
13 Tamdy ( Kyzylkum Desert)
1997
The following conclusions may be drawn based on the
analysis of computed aridity indicators characteristic of the
territory of Uzbekistan:
climate aridity is clearly manifested in the territory
of Uzbekistan;
more obvious tendencies towards climate aridity are
traced in summer and autumn, with a high temporal
variability;
the largest share is contributed into the annual trend
of aridity increase by the summer season.
The exposed tendencies may intensify land degradation now
in progress in the country, decreasing quality and quantity
of water reserves
14
Ratio of yield in a certain year to maximum yield
Changes in crop yelds in Kapakalpastan
y/ymax
1
rice
0,9
0,8
0,7
cotton
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
maize
годы
0
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Trend of crop yield designates by land degradation
Fluctuation of crop yield - by climatic conditions
15
Possible drop in yield
(%) of cotton in case of
an increase in the
number of high
temperature days
Provinces
Khorezm
Kapakalpakstan
Namangan
Jizzak
Syrdarya
Samarkand
Fergana
Andijan
Surkhandarya
Kashkadarya
Tashkent
%
Bukhara
16
0
5
10
15
20
25
Most important from biological indicators of land degradation is
vegetation cover
In the connection wit it for separate regions of the country (as
example, Karakalpakstan,including Aral Sea and Amudarya delta, and
others) needs the following:
to study of contribution values of climate change to land salinity in
Uzbekistan
to conduct the complex researches of crop yield trends arising by
water deficit, salinity soil and climate change
to develop concrete recommendations on location of agriculture
crop in accordance with climatic conditions in the future
to estimate climate change impact to biodiversity reduction
•
•
•
•
For last 25 years in
separate regions of
Uzbekistan is observed
sustainable decrease of
desert pastures, especially
in Aral Sea region.
17
Число
дней
Duration of hot period
90
70
50
Observation data shows
significant change in
steady dates of the hot
(t >25°C) and cold
(t <10°C) periods
30
10
1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996
Число
дней
Heating period
175
165
155
145
135
125
115
105
1962 1967 1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997
18
It will be possible to
increase energy
consumption for air
conditioning but will
decrease it for heating
( Samarkand )
Observation period
1961-2000
Climate Change and vulnerability indicators
observed in Uzbekistan
• Significant air temperature rise
• Changes of duration of cold and warm periods
• Increase of probability of thermal stress on human, animals
•
•
•
•
19
plants
Reduction of crop yield and pastures related with climate change
and land degradation
Shortage of water resources called by climate change and
unsustainable water use for irrigation
Outputs
An observation data for last years shows that in present time in
Uzbekistan is observed dangerous changes in climatic system
Climate change negative consequences put up on extent problem
of land degradation and water resources deficit
In Uzbekistan adaptation options are
related to optimization of use of water
and land resources:
• Solving the water supply problem and
securing guaranteed water availability at the
source
• Reconstruction of water-distribution and
irrigation systems
• Application of water-saving technologies in
agriculture
• Introduction of drought-resistant high-yield
crop varieties
• Reclamation of degraded land, including
cultivated lands and natural pastures
20
•
•
•
•
Underestimation of existing threat may lead
to strong negative consequences in the country
For decision of climate change problem
in Uzbekistan important the following:
authentic assessment past changes, improvement
of climate observation system, development early
warning system of dangerous weather events
(drought, dust storms, strong precipitation and others)
integrated assessment of vulnerability to climate
change, development of adaptation measures
Main and more difficult direction of climate
change enabling activity are development
and implementation of measures on
greenhouse gases emission reduction
21