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Haganum Model United Nations Gymnasium Haganum, The Hague Research Reports Group of 20 summit The question of the transition of fossil fuels to renewable energies 10th, 11th and 12th of March 2017 Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 Forum: Group of 20 summit Issue: The question of the transition of fossil fuels to renewable energies Student Officer: Isa Dijkstra Position: Deputy President Introduction Nearly everyone agrees that fossil fuels contribute to many of the world’s biggest environmental problems. Global warming is happening as a direct result of burning fossil fuels, besides this the burning of fossil fuels cause air pollution, acid rain and has a serious impact on human health. Despite almost everyone admitting this, the transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy is not going nearly as fast as environmental experts would want, as it is likely that the earth will warm by 4˚C by 2100. This is twice the level that was set as a goal by the world’s governments and what they deem as dangerous. The energy transition is already happening. In 2014 it was estimated that 11% of the world’s total energy and 21% of the world’s electricity came from renewable sources. However, not all countries are taking all the efforts they can to achieve the goal set at the Paris Climate Conference (PCC). The most important reason for this is money. Setting up renewable energy sources costs a lot of money and it is still possible to make a lot of money with fossil fuels. Besides this, the fossil fuel industry is also a significant part of the economy of many countries. In the United States, the oil and gas industries accounted for 8 percent of their economy in 2011. Being a significant part of the economy, the industry gains a lot of political power. Therefore it is unlikely that these industries will be shut down immediately. Many countries are taking action to make the transition to renewable energy, but to be successful, more efforts should be made. 2 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 Definition of Key Terms Renewable energy The International Energy Agency (IEA) defines renewable energy as “Energy derived from natural processes that are replenished at a faster rate than they are consumed. Solar, wind, geothermal, hydro and some forms of biomass are a common source of renewable energy.” Greenhouse gases Greenhouse gases are gases that because of their global warming potential in the atmosphere contribute to the maintaining of earths’ constant temperature. Without greenhouse gases, the average temperature on earth would be -18 degrees Celsius. Too many greenhouse gases in the atmosphere can cause a rise of the global temperature. Kyoto protocol The Kyoto protocol is an international agreement which makes its Parties set internationally binding emission reduction targets. The Kyoto protocol places a heavier burden on the developed countries, as they are mainly responsible for the high emission of greenhouse gases. Paris agreement The Paris agreement is an agreement made at the Paris climate summit. The agreements aim is to keep the global temperature rise this century below 2 degrees Celsius. The agreement also aims for the strengthening of the ability of countries to deal with the climate change. Global warming Global warming according to dictionary.com is defined as “an increase in the earth’s average atmospheric temperature that causes corresponding changes in climate and that may result from the greenhouse effect” Global Warming is internationally recognised as a serious problem, 54% of the world’s population is concerned about it. Latin America and Africa are, logically, the most concerned about this problem as they are already facing some problems that are caused by global warming. In countries where the carbon emissions are high people are less concerned about global warming and its consequences. 3 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 Background Information The transition to renewable energy is an inescapable measure. This is not because we can run out of fossil fuels, research suggests that we have only used a small part of the fossil fuels as there are still more places discovered where there are fossil fuels and new techniques are being made to extract them. It is because although we have only burned a small part of the earth’s reserves, there has already been a warming of more than one degree Celsius. Figure 1 The amount of proved and predicted gas and oil from 1977 to 2010 Global impacts of fossil fuels The burning of fossil fuels has a significant global impact. As mentioned in the introduction, global warming is happening as a direct result of the burning of fossil fuels and it also causes global health problems, by means of, for example, air pollution. Besides the burning of fossil fuels, extracting fossil fuels, by mining or drilling, carries serious health and environmental impacts. The impact of fossil fuels on the environment When fossil fuels are burned, greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, enter the atmosphere. When there are more greenhouse gases, more heat is absorbed by them, causing the earth to warm. This global warming has many impacts on the earth’s environment. 4 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 Figure 2 The process of global warming First of all, the temperatures, obviously, rise. But these rising temperatures have many consequences. As most people know, it is accelerating the sea level rise. Not only because more ice is melting, but also because when something is warmer it expands, just like water. Therefore, with the amount of water there is on earth, this expansion also causes a rise in the sea level. This will dramatically increase coastal flooding risks. Global warming will also intensify the weather events on earth. On one hand, it will increase the drought in dry areas and expand these areas. This can threaten drinking water resources and ecosystems. On the other hand, global warming is causing more tropical storms. It influenced el Niño, it was called super el Niño in 2015, this brought heavy rains and drought to different parts of the world which resulted in many food shortages in affected countries. Fossil fuels can also impact the areas where they are extracted, as drilling methods can bring water from deeper in the earth to the surface. This water can carry a high amount of heavy metals, hydrocarbons, and radioactive materials that is unsuitable for human consumption. Therefore the area will be hugely impacted. The other way of extracting fossil fuels, mining, also influences the water flows. The impact of fossil fuels on the global health The burning of fossil fuels and the climate change that comes with it affects the most important things that keep us healthy, namely sufficient food and fresh water, clean air and the absence of infectious diseases, these infectious diseases can intensify as a result of natural catastrophes. At the Paris climate summit, more than 1700 health organisations and more than 13 million doctors and other health professionals urged the government to reach an agreement that would protect the health of patients and 5 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 the public. Dr Margaret Chan, the Director-General of the World Health Organisation (WHO) said “Climate change, and all of its dire consequences for health, should be at centre-stage, right now, whenever talk turns to the future of human civilisations. After all, that’s what’s at stake”. The most direct way in which global health is harmed is the burning of fossil fuels which causes air pollution, which was responsible for 1 in 8 deaths globally in 2012. The World Health Organisation estimates that global warming will cause 250,000 deaths per year between 2030 and 2050. These deaths will be the result of malnutrition, malaria, diarrhoea, and heat stress. The World Health Organisation also stated that this number is most likely an underestimate. Difficulties of the transition to renewable energies As already mentioned in the introduction, money is the most significant barrier for the total switch to renewable energy. Other barriers include the intermittent nature of renewable energy and insufficient technologies. The economic barrier has two sides. Firstly, the cost of renewable energies, and secondly, the fossil fuels being a significant part of many countries’ economies. When making the transition to renewable energy, the initial costs are very high. Renewable energy investments need higher amounts of money for the same capacity. Besides this, some countries are very dependent of fossil fuels. For example, 95% of the exports of Nigeria consist of petroleum and petroleum products. The global transition to renewable energies would have a huge impact on their and other countries’ economies. The most significant technological barrier is that renewable energy generates less energy than what is possible with fossil fuels. For example, the most efficient solar panels have an efficiency of 40 to 50 percent. Another problem is the intermittent nature of renewable energies. Solar panels don’t generate energy at night and windmills only generate energy when the wind is blowing. Major Countries and Organisations Involved United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) 6 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 The UNFCCC is one of the three conventions adopted at the ‘Rio Earth Summit’ in 1992 and has a near-universal membership. The objective of the UNFCCC is “stabilise greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system.” Two key steps of the UNFCCC are the Kyoto protocol and the Paris agreement. International Energy Agency (IEA) The International Energy Agency (IEA) is an organisation which has as objective to ensure reliable, affordable and clean energy for its 29 member countries and beyond. The four main areas of focus are: energy security, economic development, environmental awareness and engagement worldwide. China China currently is one of the leading countries in renewable energy. China has the most installed wind energy capacity and is aiming to spend $360 billion on renewable energies by 2020. China also owns five of the world’s six largest solar-module manufacturing firms. It has as goal to generate 27% of its electricity by renewable energies in 2020. However, China has a progressive definition of renewable energy which also counts nuclear power as renewable energy. United States of America In 2015, 10% of the U.S. energy consumption and 13% of the electricity generation were accounted for by renewable energy sources. Under the Obama administration, the Clean Power Plan was developed by the Environmental Protection Agency. However, with a president-elect who claims that he thinks climate change is a hoax, the American transition to renewable energy might not proceed the way it goes. Sweden Sweden is well on its way to become the first country that runs entirely on renewable energy. Its target is to complete this goal by 2040 and they are on track to reach this goal, last year 57% of their energy came from renewable sources. Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) OPEC is an intergovernmental organisation with the objective to coordinate and unify the petroleum policies of its Member States and ensure the stabilisation of oil markets. 7 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 Although they state that they are concerned about global warming and the environment, they do not have any plans to reduce the amount of oil they are producing. In December 2015 they said that they would keep producing oil at current levels and no change in policy has been made since then. Timeline of Events Date Description of event June, 1992 Rio Earth Summit March 21, 1994 UNFCCC entered into force December 11, 1997 The Kyoto protocol was adopted in Kyoto February 16, 2005 The Kyoto protocol entered into force November 30, 2015 The United Nations Climate Change Convention started December 12, 2015 The Paris agreement was adopted in Paris January, 2017 194 member of the UNFCCC have signed the Paris agreement of which 123 have ratified it Relevant UN Treaties and Events Reliable and stable transit of energy and its role in ensuring sustainable development and international cooperation, 19 December 2008 (A/RES/63/210) Promotion of new and renewable sources of energy, 19 December 2004 (A/RES/69/225) International Year for Sustainable Energy for all, 16 February 2011 (A/RES/65/151) Previous Attempts to solve the Issue The 2015 Paris climate summit was one of the major attempts to solve the issue of global warming by reducing the emission of greenhouse gases. The aim of a maximum temperature rise of two degrees is an optimistic one, but if all countries will do what they say they will do it might be possible. Next to this summit, more conventions have been held by the UNFCCC, such as the convention in Marrakech in November, 2016 and the convention in Lima in December 2014. There are also many organisations that have climate change as their major concern and are trying to convince countries to make the transition to renewable energies. One of the major organisations is Greenpeace. Greenpeace was one of the first to create a sustainable development scenario to reduce climate change, this was in 1993. They are trying to reach 8 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 their objective by, for example their campaign ‘Go beyond oil’. Another organisation is the Union of Concerned Scientists, they are trying to help the transition to renewable energies by doing research and developing or further developing renewable energy sources. Possible Solutions When finding a solution for this problem multiple aspects should be taken into consideration. An important aspect is that some countries’ economies are very dependent on fossil fuels. When these countries are developing countries measures should be taken to ensure that the economy of the country won’t collapse. One of the solutions for this problem is to help these countries invest in renewable energies. This helps with the transition, but also helps the country itself. Besides this, it is a possible solution. For example Costa Rica, a developing nation, has invested a lot in renewable energies and was able to completely run on renewable energies for 299 days in 2016. Another way of solving this problem is by helping countries diversify their export. This could be done by, firstly looking which products can be made or found in this country and, secondly, helping them set up the means that are necessary for this country to be able to produce these products. When making a solution, global cooperation is important. Making renewable energy transport possible could be very important, because when there is an abundance of energy, for example when there is a very sunny day, this can be transported to other countries. Another problem is the efficiency of renewable energies, as this currently isn’t very high. A solution for this could be using nuclear plants instead of renewable energies such as solar panels, as nuclear plants do not cause damage to the environment. However, there are also many people against nuclear plants. Something that could be done to encourage people to invest more in renewable energies is increasing the price of fossil fuels. This would encourage people to for example buy electrical cars or solar panels as this would be the cheaper option and many people are motivated by money. Bibliography Cañete, Miguel Arias. "Environment." Renewable Energy: Catalyst for a Clean Energy Transition - OECD. N.p., 2016. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <http://www.oecd.org/environment/renewable-energy-catalyst-clean-energy-transition.htm>. 9 RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 Carrington, Damian. "Planet Likely to Warm by 4C by 2100, Scientists Warn." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 31 Dec. 2013. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2013/dec/31/planet-will-warm-4c-2100-climate>. Cohen, Steven. "The Transition to Renewable Energy Is Difficult But Feasible." The Huffington Post. TheHuffingtonPost.com, 10 June 2014. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <http://www.huffingtonpost.com/steven-cohen/the-transition-to-renewab_b_5938540.html>. Glide, Melanie. "Global Energy Transition Is Underway and Ready for G20 Acceleration on Action." WWF. World Wildlife Fund, 01 Sept. 2016. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <http://www.worldwildlife.org/press-releases/global-energy-transition-is-underway-and-readyfor-g20-acceleration-on-action>. Heinberg, Richard. "100% Renewable Energy Is Possible, Here's How." EcoWatch. N.p., 09 July 2016. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <http://www.ecowatch.com/100-renewable-energy-ispossible-heres-how-1882182049.html>. Nuccitelli, Dana. "Earth Is Warming 50x Faster than When It Comes out of an Ice Age." The Guardian. Guardian News and Media, 24 Feb. 2016. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-percent/2016/feb/24/earth-is-warming-is-50x-faster-than-when-it-comes-out-of-an-ice-age>. Rissman, Jeffrey. "We Will Not Run out of Fossil Fuels." Livescience. N.p., 14 June 2014. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <http://www.livescience.com/37469-fuel-endures.html>. Sebastian. "G20 Financing the Transition – Glimpses of Green." Climate Transparency. N.p., 21 Sept. 2016. Web. 12 Jan. 2017. <http://www.climate-transparency.org/g20-financing-thetransition>. Appendix or Appendices I. 1 0 http://newsroom.unfccc.int/ RESEARCH REPORTS Haganum Model United Nations 2017| 10th of March – 12th of March 2017 II. III. IV. V. 1 1 http://www.ecowatch.com/100-renewable-energy-is-possible-heres-how1882182049.html http://www.oecd.org/environment/renewable-energy-catalyst-clean-energytransition.htm http://www.climate-transparency.org/ http://www.unosd.org/ RESEARCH REPORTS