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23/01/2014 Need for global long‐term end‐to‐end biogeochemical and ecological monitoring: A way forward Tony Koslow Scripps Institution of Oceanography University of California, S.D., La Jolla, CA USA Institute for Marine & Antarctic Studies University of Tasmania Hobart, Tasmania Australia POGO 2014, Hobart, Australia, January 2014 Outline of talk: Why a global end‐to‐ end physical/ biogeochemical / ecological + fishery observing system is needed How are we doing? Where we are doing well What is still missing How we can get there from here Koslow, J.A., J. Couture (2013) Nature 502: 163‐164 1 23/01/2014 Why are ocean time series so important? • The oceans today are subject to a host of anthropogenic stressors: – impacts of (over)fishing, energy and mineral extraction, nutrient runoff —> eutrophication & coastal dead zones, invasive species, pollutants, warming, acidification, deoxygenation…. • The oceans are also subject to natural variability on various time‐space scales: – ENSO, PDO, NPGO & other ocean climate cycles • To distinguish secular change from natural variability requires multi‐decadal time series. For ecology, species‐level resolution required for core groups How are we doing? • Meta‐analysis conducted of Pacific Ocean observation programs: – What is measured, how, & for how long? 2 23/01/2014 How are we doing? Global GOOS GOOS established in 1990s Notable successes in global programs that measure readily quantified variables (e.g. T, S, chl), with satellites, Argo Coastal observations, including GOOS • Fishery time series • Nearshore stations: primarily measure T, S, nutrients, O2, HABs • Variables related to coastal hazards: winds, waves, sea level 3 23/01/2014 GOOS: the promise still unfulfilled • Ecological measurements: an embarrassing “gap” (K. Alverson, former GOOS Director) • Coastal GOOS fragmented, unsystematic – US GOOS divided into 11 regional associations – Variables monitored differ among RAs, methods not consistent, no overarching plan or synthesis – Focus on the “low hanging fruit” • Physical, chemical variables: T, S, chl, nutrients, O2 • Marine hazards: winds, waves, sea level The current status of ecological monitoring in the Pacific: Key ecological groups: zooplankton All zooplankton observation programs, including bulk biomass But bulk biomass is not very informative. Species‐level data required to assess changes in abundance & distribution 4 23/01/2014 Zooplankton Time Series with Species‐ Resolution • >20+ yr–long time series • <20 yr‐long time series Micronekton Time Series ~109 – 1010 mt CalCOFI (Ichthyoplankton, 1951‐ present) Tasman Sea (Acoustics/midwater trawl) since ~2000) Most abundant vertebrates on the planet linking plankton production & higher trophic levels throughout the world’s oceans 5 23/01/2014 CalCOFI ichthyoplankton multivariate analysis (PCA) PC 1: 24 midwater fish taxa declined >60% between periods of high & low O2 Impact of expanding OMZ? O2 declining across northern N Pacific (Japan – Canada – California Current) and in tropical Pacific, Indian & Atlantic Oceans, all regions with significant OMZs Declining O2 predicted by GCM Similar impacts on micronekton elsewhere in N Pacific and tropical oceans with declining O2 in OMZ? Koslow et al. MEPS (2011) Potentially profound impact of global climate change with implications for global ocean food webs, ecology & biogeochemistry, but presently unknown How can we do better? CalCOFI as a model • Partnership of federal (NOAA), state (Cal Fish & Game) fishery/ management agencies + academic (SIO) • Govt agencies: stock assessments for key regional fisheries (sardine, anchovy, hake) based on egg production and/or acoustic/trawl surveys • Academic focus on physical/biological ocean environment – Quarterly fishery + oceanographic sampling at each station builds fishery& oceanographic scientific infrastructure, interdisciplinary science – Foundation for ecosystem‐based management – Linking ocean observations to fisheries management enhances program sustainability The vision of the CalCOFI pioneers circa 1949: All fish eggs & larvae removed from standard oblique (0 – 200m) plankton tows at all stations, identified & enumerated Result: today there are time series for >400 fish taxa, commercial & non‐commercial: the fish community of the California Current 6 23/01/2014 CalCOFI as a model • CalCOFI climate/ocean/ ecological/fish time series underlie understanding of interannual (ENSO) to interdecadal (PDO, NPGO) variability in the California Current System N y c t ip h a n e s s im p le x 2 1 0 -1 -2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Euphausia pacifica 2 1 0 El Niño’s -1 -2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 PDO index 2 1 0 -1 -2 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year CalCOFI as a model • Leverages ancillary programs ‐> end‐to‐end obs + devt marine science capacity Temperature, salinity Chlorophyll a, irradiance Oxygen Nutrients (N, P, Si) – NH4 CalCOFI CTD, fluorometer, PAR CalCOFI CalCOFI CTD, auto-Winkler Auto analyzer Primary production Sea surface pCO2 (select stn) CalCOFI CalCOFI 14C-uptake - POC, DOC IR absorbance ICHTHYOPLANKTON + Zooplankton Other bio-optical properties CalCOFI Bongo net (oblique), Calvet (vertical), manta (surface) tows CCE LTER cDOM,beam c vs. l Particulate & dissolved C&N CCE LTER dry combustion Upper ocean currents ADCP, data analyses Taxon-specific pigments Chereskin/CCE LTER CCE LTER Bacteria & picoautotrophs CCE LTER Flow cytometry Nano- & microplankton CCE LTER Microscopy, FlowCAM Mesozooplankton, size classes, species, species groups CCE LTER OPC, LOPC, Microscopy, ZOOSCAN Seabirds Marine mammals Farallon/PRBO, Hildebrand Observers, Passive acoustics Krill, micronekton, small pelagics Koslow, NMFS Acoustics, pelagic trawl HPLC 7 23/01/2014 Are ship‐based, species‐level observations too difficult & costly? • CalCOFI’s cost: ~$5 million pa • Longhurst: ~56 biogeographic provinces in the world’s oceans • Total cost for global ocean obs: ~$280 million – + savings from existing fishery & other ocean monitoring activities Are ship‐based, species‐level observations too difficult & costly? Cost of the US Ocean Observatories Initiative: $386 million for infrastructure, $55 million pa Very high tech but little species specific data. Time series??? The cost for CalCOFI‐like programs in each of the US 5‐6 LMEs: $25‐$30 million, ~ half of OOI budget Cost of US NASA space exploration: ~$18 billion Cost for global ocean ship‐based species‐level obs: 1.5% of NASA budget The fault lies not in the cost, but in our priorities! 8 23/01/2014 Summary • A representative global system of species‐level time series is required for world ocean assessments (e.g. UN WOA) and ecosystem‐based fisheries management • This can be achieved through development of consistent, systematic ocean observation programs in representative LMEs throughout the world’s oceans (CalCOFI model) • These observations complement existing ocean obs, e.g. moorings, satellites, gliders, coastal sampling, etc • The cost is modest and the spinoffs are substantial: – Development of interdisciplinary marine science infrastructure: consistent with POGO capacity‐building initiatives – Understanding of impacts of anthropogenic stressors in relation to climate variability & climate change across spatial & temporal scales – Link to fisheries enhances client support/sustainability of ocean obs prgm • Collaborative Oceanographic & Fisheries Investigations (COFI) as a POGO initiative? Modern ocean observation system Monitor and assimilate ocean data on temporal and spatial scales unimaginable circa 1950 CalCOFI has evolved throughout its history, and will continue to evolve with new instrumentation, sampling protocols and partners 9