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INTEGRATING PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH AND GEOINFORMATICS TO DEVELOP NEW VISIONS AND PATHWAYS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE TAITA HILLS W U N D A N Y I 7 TH O C T O B E R 2 0 1 5 Claudia Capitani- University of York, Environment Department UNDERSTANDING LAND USE AND COVER CHANGES DYNAMICS 8 7 6 5 4 BIOPHYSICAL FACTORS SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS UNCERTAINITY 3 2 1 COMPLEXITY 0 2000 2010 2025 2050 A DIFFERENT APPROACH… 8 7 6 5 SCENARIOS ANALYSIS MULTISTAKEHOLDERS’ CONSULTATIONS & QUANTITATIVE/SPA TIAL ANALYSIS 4 3 2 1 0 2000 2010 2025 2050 WHAT ARE SCENARIOS? Scenarios are stories about how the future might unfold that can be told in both words and numbers. SCENARIO ANALYSIS POTENTIAL OUTCOMES underlying drivers of changes and their mutual interactions: ex-ante assessment of adaptation strategies: Roadmap to target policies/strategies Improving ecosystem services, livelihood safeguard Environmental pressures maps: Communities engagement and increased awareness: Spatial planning for climate change mitigation, and adaptation social learning COMPLEXITY…… RESILIANCE CLIMATE COMMUNITY CROP LAND COVER/ BBFOREST WATER PEST Scenario A FOOD SECURITY ECOSYSTEM SERVICES Scenario B 20 yrs ago Present UNCERTAINTY …… Scenario C A MODELING FRAMEWORK ADDRESSING.. UNCERTAINTY & COMPLEXITY INTEGRATED QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT LOCAL SYSTEM KNOWLEDGE INTEGRATING QUALITATIVE & QUANTITATIVE-SPATIALLY EXPLICIT SCENARIOS: MAIN STEPS Stakeholders’ consultations • Scenario narratives • Spatial information Modelling •Spatial allocation and supply demand estimate Scenarios maps Iteration • Land use changes • Climate feedback • Impacts on ecosyste m services GLOBAL/NATIONAL CHALLENGES (DEFORESTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT) STAKEHOLDERS WS – TASK 1 TRENDS OF ECONOMIC SECTORS WITH GREATER IMPACTS ON LAND SCENARIOS NARRATIVES: SCENARIOS GENERAL DEFINITIONS NATIONAL POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND TRENDS FUTURE TRENDS OF ECONOMIC SECTORS TRADE-OFF BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT IMPACTS ON LAND USES and GENERAL TRENDS OF CHANGE STAKEHOLDERS WS – TASK 2 (MAP ANALYSIS AND LAND COVER CHANGE MATRIX) SCENARIO A SCENARIO B SCENARIO C WHICH LAND USE/COVER CHANGES?? WHY?? WHERE ????? FUTURE LAND COVER MAPS PROS: • PARTICIPATION & OWNERSHIP • MULTI-DIMENSION APPROACH • LOCAL INSIGHTS AND DETAILS RICHNESS • MULTIPLE OUTPUTS Which changes on main resources supporting livelihoods would you expect? Which resources would become scarcer or more available? WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and RAINFALL INCREASES, NUMBER OF DRY MONTHS STAYS SIMILAR WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN SEA MAY ANTICIPATE/BE POSTPONED) Increased water volume Inadequate water volume Increased crop yield Low crops yield Occurrence of foods No floods Improved livestock Emaciated livestock, low productivity More available: All vary Water Crop yield increased Which sectors would be mostly affected? Agriculture boosted Infrastructure destroyed Health: water borne diseases increased Marketing All vary APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK TO THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAITA HILLS • What if the climate…..by 2050? CLIMATE PROJECTIONS Baseline RCP4.5 RCP8.5 (2041-2070) (2041-2070) Remarks 16.7-24.7 18.5-26.4 19.1-27.1 Temperature coolest quarter14.5-22.5 Temperature warmest quarter 18.4-26.3 16.3-24.3 16.9-24.9 HOTTER HOTTER 20.2-28.1 20.8-28.8 HOTTER Mean annual rainfall (mm) 488-793 534-841 535-826 Rainfall driest quarter 12-31 10-28 9-25 Rainfall wettest quarter 201-327 250-364 236-352 WETTER SIMILAR/DRIER WETTER Annual moisture index (rainfall/PET) 0.29-0.54 0.31-0.53 0.30-0.52 Number of arid months 7-9 7-9 8-9 Mean annual temperature (C) SIMILAR SIMILAR/MOREARID-MONTHS Climate change variability on the transect (~30yrs) from observed earth and satellite data. AFRICLIM 2.0, Platts et al. 2014,2015 STAKEHOLDERS WORKSHOPS OBJECTIVES • Exploring how interactions between CLIMATE/Land Uses/WATER have changed across time, and will change under future climate scenarios Discuss observed historical climate variability: Discuss indicators and causes of changes; Discuss trade-off between land uses; Discuss the community coping and adaptation capacity in the future climate scenario; • Discuss the possible impacts on land use and land cover under NO ADAPTATION or ADAPTATION scenarios. • • • • TIMELINE Group 3 (Upland) 20-30 yrs ago → 1980-1985 -Prolonged droughts -Pest infestation increased -Streams dried up -Increase in bush fire -Crop failure leading to increased starvation -Water scarcity witnessed -Dependency on hand out/donations increase, e.g. Yellow maize 1987-1989 -Heavy down pours -Many floods leading to landslides -Crop destruction leading to starvation -Water borne diseases -Destruction of properties 1990-1995 Moderate climate conditions -Moderate temperatures -Improvement in vegetation -Average crop harvest 15-20 yrs ago → 1997-1998 (el Nino heavy downpour) -Destruction of properties caused by floods -Crop destruction leading to starvation -Inflation triggering unrest among the working groups 10-15 yrs ago → 5-10 yrs ago → NOW 1998-2004 -Moderate climate conditions -Fair crop harvest -Farms in the valley silted leading to higher harvesting 2005-2010 Seasonal climatic changes -Change of seasons and unpredictable weather -Increase in pest infestation -Increase in bush/forest fire -Increase in cold spell 2010-2015 -Unreliable rainfall pattern -Increase in extreme temperature -Low rainfall -Emergence of new pest -Drying up of some plants species -Reduction in fog capping some forest, e.g. Vuria -Increase in wind WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and RAINFALL INCREASES, DRY SEASON IS DRYER WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN SEASON MAY BEANTICIPATE/POSTPONED) Which changes on main resources supporting livelihoods would you expect? Increased water volume Increased crop yield, Occurrence of foods Improved livestock Reduced human wildlife conflict Increased forest products Inadequate water volume Low crops yield Emaciated livestock, low productivity Human wildlife conflicts Escalating food prices Charcoal production affected Which resources would become scarcer or more available? More available: Water; More springs, shallow water, Crop yield increased: food crops Forest cover and so forest products Scarce: Crops failure, Water scarcity All vary Available: Charcoal, Firewoods, Timber, Drought tolerant crops Scarce: Food become more scarce; Charcoal business will be more unreliable Which sectors would be mostly affected? Positive: Agriculture boosted, Marketing, Livestock, Nutrition Negative: Transport, Tourism: Infrastructure destroyed (related to Floods) Health: water borne diseases increased Health of crops: eg. Tomatoes diseases, water-borne disease All vary Agriculture: Crop failure: maize is affected by rainfall variability, while tree crops (bananas) and cassava, potatoes (less water users) can survive. Drying up of water sources Forestry: Deforestation, Increased pressure to forest products Livestock: products decreasing, livestock body condition deteriorating. Tourism, hotels affected SOLUTIONS: CHANGES, Resistance, Both Land management Technology Increase of vegetation cover Proper water storage, Putting storage tanks Governance DIVERSIFICATION OF LIVELIHOOD GROW DROUGHT TOLERANT CROPS (cassava, potatoes, millet) Post-harvest Practices Common marketing strategies, eg. use of cooperatives Water harvesting structures Value addition Effective law enforcement organs Plant trees, more forest cover More reliable weather station More storage facilities INTEGRATED APPROACH INTRODUCTION OF ADAPTIVE CROPS EMBRACING NEW TECHNOLOGIES, EG. CHECK DAMS USE OF GREEN HOUSES Train farmers on post harvesting management Min. of Health to be on a high alert on water borne diseases Mulching to reduce evotranspiration from the soil Use of terraces to control soil erosion Tree crops (banana) more resistant to variability EFFECTIVE WATER USAGE EG. DRIP IRRIGATION ALTERNATIVE LIVELIHOOD EG. BEEKEEPING ENERGY EFFICIENT EG. IMPROVED JIKO Dairy value addition to our farm product What if…? ADAPTATION NO ADAPTATION HIGH POPULATION INCOME HIGH HIGH LOW LAND USE CHANGE HIGH BIODIVERSITY GROUPS RESULTS POPULATION LAND USE INCOME BIODIVERSITY POSITIONING OF THE MAIN SECTORS AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE QUADRANTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMY AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, IN THE DIFFERENT SCENARIOS • IDENTIFY SECTORS • POSITION THE SECTORS IN THE CURRENT SITUATION (TAKE NOTES OF THE DRIVERS FOR THE CURRENT POSITION) • POSITION THE SECTORS IN 2025 IN A NO ADAPTATION SCENARIO (TAKE NOTES OF THE DRIVERS OF TRAJECTORIES) • POSITION THE SECTORS IN 2025 IN A ADAPTATION SCENARIO (TAKE NOTES OF THE DRIVERS OF TRAJECTORIES) RICH Economy: production/income, expenditure DEGRADED HEALTHY Environment: land use, water use POOR What is behind the positioning of the sector? What is the balance between economy and environment (land use)? What is the current situation? What will happen? Increase/decrease, improvement/ worsening What could move the sector to the future positions, In Scenario 1: NO ADAPTATION? In Scenario 2: ADAPTATION? WATER MANAGEMENT FOREST MANAGEMENT AGRICULTURE LIVESTOCK LAND COVER/USE CHANGES: Identifying possible land cover/use changes, their drivers and the spatial rules guiding them. BUSINESSME N LAND USERS/MANAGERS AUTHORITIES FORESTERS LIVESTOCK KEEPERS (LOCAL, REGIONAL, NATIONAL) FARMERS LAND USES ENERGY BIOMASS (CHARCOAL) CROPLAN D WOODLAN D AGRICULTURE SHRUBLAN D THICKET LIVESTOCK FORESTS PLANTATIO N FORESTS LAND COVERS INFRASTRUCTURES ARTIFICIAL , BARE LAND, ROCKS WATER TAITA HILLS FROM THE SKY: REPRESENTATION OF LAND COVERS Heikinheimo, V. (2015). Impact of land change on aboveground carbon stocks in the Taita Hills, Kenya. Master's Thesis. Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University of Helsinki. LAND COVER/USE CLASSES LAND COVERS LAND USES LAND USERS/MANAGERS CROPLAND Farming Farmers, .. SHRUBLAND Livestock grazing, lowlands Livestock keepers Livestock grazing, medicinal herbs, charcoal (midland) Mixed exogeneous (production) and indigenous (conservation) THICKET WOODLAND Timbers, but for hydrological FOREST protection on the slopes PLANTATIONS (from forest service) County and national NATURAL government, mostly FORESTS protection use. OUTPUTS FROM CLASS TO CLASS PROBABILITY SCORE Woodland Cropland …. Shrubland …… Plantation forest …… WHY? DRIVERS WHERE? From_class Cropland NO ADAPTATION Broadleaved Forest Thicket Shrubland Woodland Built-up Cropland 2 0 1 3 2 Forest plantation 3.5 2 4 3 Broadleaved ADAPTATION Indigenous Forest Shrubland 3 0 Woodland 2 1.5 0 1 2 3 0 0 3 2 2 2.5 1.5 0 1 0 Forest Indigenou From_class Built-up Cropland plantation Grassland s Forest Shrubland Woodland Cropland 2 0 2.5 0 3 2 3 Broadleaved Forest 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 Thicket 2 3 3.5 0 0 0 0 Shrubland 3 3 2 Woodland 2 2 3 4 3 0 0 WAY FORWARD Translate narratives and semi-quantitative information in maps Asante