Download Climate change scenarios in Taita Hills_prelres

INTEGRATING PARTICIPATORY RESEARCH AND
GEOINFORMATICS TO DEVELOP NEW VISIONS
AND PATHWAYS FOR THE FUTURE OF THE TAITA
HILLS
W U N D A N Y I 7 TH O C T O B E R 2 0 1 5
Claudia Capitani- University of York, Environment Department
UNDERSTANDING LAND USE AND COVER CHANGES DYNAMICS
8
7
6
5
4
BIOPHYSICAL
FACTORS
SOCIOECONOMIC
FACTORS
UNCERTAINITY
3
2
1
COMPLEXITY
0
2000
2010
2025
2050
A DIFFERENT APPROACH…
8
7
6
5
SCENARIOS
ANALYSIS
MULTISTAKEHOLDERS’
CONSULTATIONS &
QUANTITATIVE/SPA
TIAL ANALYSIS
4
3
2
1
0
2000
2010
2025
2050
WHAT ARE SCENARIOS?
Scenarios are stories about how the
future might unfold that can be told
in both words and numbers.
SCENARIO ANALYSIS POTENTIAL OUTCOMES
underlying drivers of changes
and their mutual interactions:
ex-ante assessment of
adaptation strategies:
Roadmap to target
policies/strategies
Improving ecosystem
services, livelihood safeguard
Environmental pressures maps:
Communities engagement and
increased awareness:
Spatial planning for climate
change mitigation, and
adaptation
social learning
COMPLEXITY……
RESILIANCE
CLIMATE
COMMUNITY
CROP
LAND
COVER/
BBFOREST
WATER
PEST
Scenario A
FOOD
SECURITY
ECOSYSTEM
SERVICES
Scenario B
20 yrs ago
Present
UNCERTAINTY ……
Scenario C
A MODELING FRAMEWORK ADDRESSING..
UNCERTAINTY &
COMPLEXITY
INTEGRATED
QUANTITATIVE
ASSESSMENT
LOCAL
SYSTEM
KNOWLEDGE
INTEGRATING QUALITATIVE & QUANTITATIVE-SPATIALLY EXPLICIT SCENARIOS:
MAIN STEPS
Stakeholders’
consultations
• Scenario narratives
• Spatial information
Modelling
•Spatial
allocation
and supply
demand
estimate
Scenarios
maps
Iteration
• Land use
changes
• Climate
feedback
• Impacts
on
ecosyste
m services
GLOBAL/NATIONAL
CHALLENGES
(DEFORESTATION,
CLIMATE CHANGE,
DEVELOPMENT)
STAKEHOLDERS WS –
TASK 1
TRENDS OF ECONOMIC
SECTORS WITH GREATER
IMPACTS ON LAND
SCENARIOS
NARRATIVES:
SCENARIOS
GENERAL
DEFINITIONS
NATIONAL
POLICIES,
STRATEGIES AND
TRENDS
FUTURE TRENDS OF ECONOMIC
SECTORS
TRADE-OFF BETWEEN
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
IMPACTS ON LAND USES and
GENERAL TRENDS OF CHANGE
STAKEHOLDERS WS –
TASK 2
(MAP ANALYSIS AND
LAND COVER
CHANGE MATRIX)
SCENARIO A
SCENARIO B
SCENARIO C
WHICH LAND USE/COVER CHANGES??
WHY??
WHERE ?????
FUTURE LAND COVER MAPS
PROS:
• PARTICIPATION & OWNERSHIP
• MULTI-DIMENSION APPROACH
• LOCAL INSIGHTS AND
DETAILS RICHNESS
• MULTIPLE OUTPUTS
Which changes on
main resources
supporting livelihoods
would you expect?
Which resources
would become scarcer
or more available?
WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and
RAINFALL INCREASES, NUMBER OF
DRY MONTHS STAYS SIMILAR
WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL
VARIABILITY INCREASES (RAIN SEA
MAY ANTICIPATE/BE POSTPONED)
Increased water volume
Inadequate water volume
Increased crop yield
Low crops yield
Occurrence of foods
No floods
Improved livestock
Emaciated livestock, low productivity
More available:
All vary
Water
Crop yield increased
Which sectors would
be mostly affected?
Agriculture boosted
Infrastructure destroyed
Health: water borne diseases increased
Marketing
All vary
APPLYING THE FRAMEWORK TO THE CONTEXT OF
CLIMATE CHANGE IN TAITA HILLS
• What if the climate…..by 2050?
CLIMATE PROJECTIONS
Baseline
RCP4.5
RCP8.5
(2041-2070) (2041-2070) Remarks
16.7-24.7
18.5-26.4
19.1-27.1
Temperature coolest quarter14.5-22.5
Temperature warmest
quarter
18.4-26.3
16.3-24.3
16.9-24.9
HOTTER
HOTTER
20.2-28.1
20.8-28.8
HOTTER
Mean annual rainfall (mm) 488-793
534-841
535-826
Rainfall driest quarter
12-31
10-28
9-25
Rainfall wettest quarter
201-327
250-364
236-352
WETTER
SIMILAR/DRIER
WETTER
Annual moisture index
(rainfall/PET)
0.29-0.54
0.31-0.53
0.30-0.52
Number of arid months
7-9
7-9
8-9
Mean annual temperature
(C)
SIMILAR
SIMILAR/MOREARID-MONTHS
Climate change variability on the transect (~30yrs) from observed earth and satellite
data. AFRICLIM 2.0, Platts et al. 2014,2015
STAKEHOLDERS WORKSHOPS OBJECTIVES
• Exploring how interactions between
CLIMATE/Land Uses/WATER have changed
across time, and will change under future
climate scenarios
Discuss observed historical climate variability:
Discuss indicators and causes of changes;
Discuss trade-off between land uses;
Discuss the community coping and adaptation
capacity in the future climate scenario;
• Discuss the possible impacts on land use and land
cover under NO ADAPTATION or ADAPTATION
scenarios.
•
•
•
•
TIMELINE
Group 3 (Upland)
20-30 yrs ago
→
1980-1985
-Prolonged droughts
-Pest infestation increased
-Streams dried up
-Increase in bush fire
-Crop failure leading to
increased starvation
-Water scarcity witnessed
-Dependency on hand
out/donations increase, e.g.
Yellow maize
1987-1989
-Heavy down pours
-Many floods leading to
landslides
-Crop destruction leading to
starvation
-Water borne diseases
-Destruction of properties
1990-1995
Moderate climate conditions
-Moderate temperatures
-Improvement in vegetation
-Average crop harvest
15-20 yrs ago
→
1997-1998
(el Nino heavy downpour)
-Destruction of properties
caused by floods
-Crop destruction leading
to starvation
-Inflation triggering unrest
among the working groups
10-15 yrs ago
→
5-10 yrs ago
→ NOW
1998-2004
-Moderate climate
conditions
-Fair crop harvest
-Farms in the valley
silted leading to
higher harvesting
2005-2010
Seasonal climatic
changes
-Change of seasons
and unpredictable
weather
-Increase in pest
infestation
-Increase in
bush/forest fire
-Increase in cold spell
2010-2015
-Unreliable rainfall pattern
-Increase in extreme
temperature
-Low rainfall
-Emergence of new pest
-Drying up of some plants
species
-Reduction in fog capping
some forest, e.g. Vuria
-Increase in wind
WHAT IF… ? TEMPERATURE and
RAINFALL INCREASES, DRY SEASON IS
DRYER
WHAT IF…? INTER-ANNUAL VARIABILITY
INCREASES (RAIN SEASON MAY
BEANTICIPATE/POSTPONED)
Which changes on
main resources
supporting
livelihoods would
you expect?
Increased water volume
Increased crop yield, Occurrence of foods
Improved livestock
Reduced human wildlife conflict
Increased forest products
Inadequate water volume
Low crops yield
Emaciated livestock, low productivity
Human wildlife conflicts
Escalating food prices
Charcoal production affected
Which resources
would become
scarcer or more
available?
More available:
Water; More springs, shallow water,
Crop yield increased: food crops
Forest cover and so forest products
Scarce: Crops failure, Water scarcity
All vary
Available: Charcoal, Firewoods, Timber, Drought
tolerant crops
Scarce:
Food become more scarce; Charcoal business
will be more unreliable
Which sectors
would be mostly
affected?
Positive:
Agriculture boosted, Marketing, Livestock,
Nutrition
Negative:
Transport, Tourism: Infrastructure destroyed
(related to Floods)
Health: water borne diseases increased
Health of crops: eg. Tomatoes diseases,
water-borne disease
All vary
Agriculture: Crop failure: maize is affected by
rainfall variability, while tree crops (bananas)
and cassava, potatoes (less water users) can
survive. Drying up of water sources
Forestry: Deforestation, Increased pressure to
forest products
Livestock: products decreasing, livestock body
condition deteriorating.
Tourism, hotels affected
SOLUTIONS: CHANGES, Resistance, Both
Land management
Technology
Increase of vegetation cover Proper water storage,
Putting storage tanks
Governance
DIVERSIFICATION OF
LIVELIHOOD
GROW DROUGHT
TOLERANT CROPS (cassava,
potatoes, millet)
Post-harvest Practices
Common marketing
strategies, eg. use of
cooperatives
Water harvesting structures Value addition
Effective law enforcement
organs
Plant trees, more forest
cover
More reliable weather
station
More storage facilities
INTEGRATED APPROACH
INTRODUCTION OF
ADAPTIVE CROPS
EMBRACING NEW
TECHNOLOGIES, EG. CHECK
DAMS
USE OF GREEN HOUSES
Train farmers on post
harvesting management
Min. of Health to be on a
high alert on water borne
diseases
Mulching to reduce evotranspiration from the soil
Use of terraces to control
soil erosion
Tree crops (banana) more
resistant to variability
EFFECTIVE WATER USAGE
EG. DRIP IRRIGATION
ALTERNATIVE LIVELIHOOD
EG. BEEKEEPING
ENERGY EFFICIENT EG.
IMPROVED JIKO
Dairy value addition to our
farm product
What if…?
ADAPTATION
NO ADAPTATION
HIGH
POPULATION
INCOME
HIGH
HIGH
LOW
LAND
USE
CHANGE
HIGH
BIODIVERSITY
GROUPS RESULTS
POPULATION
LAND USE
INCOME
BIODIVERSITY
POSITIONING OF THE MAIN SECTORS AFFECTED BY CLIMATE
CHANGE IN THE QUADRANTS ACCORDING TO ECONOMY
AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS, IN THE DIFFERENT
SCENARIOS
• IDENTIFY SECTORS
• POSITION THE SECTORS IN THE CURRENT SITUATION (TAKE NOTES OF
THE DRIVERS FOR THE CURRENT POSITION)
• POSITION THE SECTORS IN 2025 IN A NO ADAPTATION SCENARIO
(TAKE NOTES OF THE DRIVERS OF TRAJECTORIES)
• POSITION THE SECTORS IN 2025 IN A ADAPTATION SCENARIO (TAKE
NOTES OF THE DRIVERS OF TRAJECTORIES)
RICH
Economy: production/income,
expenditure
DEGRADED
HEALTHY
Environment:
land use, water use
POOR
What is behind the positioning of the sector?
What is the balance between economy and
environment (land use)?
What is the current situation? What will happen?
Increase/decrease, improvement/ worsening
What could move the sector to the future
positions,
In Scenario 1: NO ADAPTATION?
In Scenario 2: ADAPTATION?
WATER MANAGEMENT
FOREST MANAGEMENT
AGRICULTURE
LIVESTOCK
LAND COVER/USE CHANGES:
Identifying possible land cover/use changes, their
drivers and the spatial rules guiding them.
BUSINESSME
N
LAND USERS/MANAGERS
AUTHORITIES
FORESTERS
LIVESTOCK
KEEPERS
(LOCAL,
REGIONAL,
NATIONAL)
FARMERS
LAND USES
ENERGY
BIOMASS
(CHARCOAL)
CROPLAN
D
WOODLAN
D
AGRICULTURE
SHRUBLAN
D
THICKET
LIVESTOCK
FORESTS
PLANTATIO
N FORESTS
LAND COVERS
INFRASTRUCTURES
ARTIFICIAL
, BARE
LAND,
ROCKS
WATER
TAITA HILLS FROM THE SKY: REPRESENTATION OF LAND COVERS
Heikinheimo, V. (2015). Impact of land change on aboveground carbon stocks in the Taita Hills,
Kenya. Master's Thesis. Department of Geosciences and Geography, Faculty of Science, University
of Helsinki.
LAND COVER/USE CLASSES
LAND
COVERS
LAND USES
LAND USERS/MANAGERS
CROPLAND
Farming
Farmers, ..
SHRUBLAND
Livestock grazing, lowlands Livestock keepers
Livestock grazing, medicinal
herbs, charcoal (midland)
Mixed exogeneous
(production) and indigenous
(conservation)
THICKET
WOODLAND
Timbers, but for hydrological
FOREST
protection on the slopes
PLANTATIONS (from forest service)
County and national
NATURAL
government, mostly
FORESTS
protection use.
OUTPUTS
FROM CLASS
TO CLASS
PROBABILITY
SCORE
Woodland
Cropland
….
Shrubland
……
Plantation
forest
……
WHY?
DRIVERS
WHERE?
From_class
Cropland
NO ADAPTATION
Broadleaved
Forest
Thicket
Shrubland
Woodland
Built-up
Cropland
2
0
1
3
2
Forest
plantation
3.5
2
4
3
Broadleaved
ADAPTATION
Indigenous
Forest
Shrubland
3
0
Woodland
2
1.5
0
1
2
3
0
0
3
2
2
2.5
1.5
0
1
0
Forest
Indigenou
From_class Built-up Cropland plantation Grassland s Forest Shrubland Woodland
Cropland
2
0
2.5
0
3
2
3
Broadleaved
Forest
0
1
1
0
0
0
0
Thicket
2
3
3.5
0
0
0
0
Shrubland
3
3
2
Woodland
2
2
3
4
3
0
0
WAY FORWARD
Translate narratives and semi-quantitative information in maps
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