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Fundamental Characteristics of Financial Industry and Natural Evolution (II) Endogenous Solutions Dr. J.D. Han King’s College, University of Western Ontario Objectives We have learned stocks (equities) are the most subject to information asymmetry and free rider problems. - Lack of information and monitoring Government intervention is not warranted, at least, for now. It is also not desirable. What are possible endogenous solutions? Possible Endogenous Solutions for Information Asymmetry in Financial Instudstry 1) Alternative Funding Arrangements with enhanced Monitoring 2) Ultimately, M & As 1. Alternative Funding Arrangements Alternative Funding Arrangements: Private Equity Venture Capital Mezzanine Financing Alternative Financial System, which may allow for an enhanced monitoring by investors eg) Japanese Banks are allowed to be creditors as well as share-holders 2. M & As Recent Surge in Mergers and Acquisitions (M & A) Recent trend statistics: http://www.thomson.com/cms/assets/pdfs/financial/league_table/mergers_and_acquisitions/2Q2006/2Q06_MA _Global_Finl_Advisory.pdf M & A means a change in management, and also is usually accompanied with an Increased Indebtedness(D/E ratio): Debts have become even more important in corporate financing. * Exisiting works miss an important aspect of M & As Too much focus on the Size (growth) issue of M & As as a result of Globalization and Global Competition - by ”big hands” or “rigging the market” True, but there is another very important, and positive, aspect to it – by “invisible hands” or “market forces” New Kid on the Block: In fact, not a Kid at all. Private Equity Firms have joined M & A through their Pooled Buyout Funds * By now, you have learned about 3 sub-types of Private Equity Private Equity Firms account for One of 4 M & A deals in U.S. in 2006 II. Fundamentals and added problems “Principal-Agent Problem”in the financial market and the corporate world: Old Problem -“Information Asymmetry” leads to “Principal-Agent Problem in Equities * separation of ownership(principals=shareholders) and management(agents=managers) *Agent often works for his own best interests at the expense of the principals’ -The more severe Moral Hazard’ problem. An Increased Legality : an added Problem due toCorporate Environment of Political Correctness makes it virtually impossible to change management III. Two Phenomena may result from the endogenous, free-market efforts to solve the fundamental information asymmetry problems of the financial market We will explain that An increase in M & A combined with An Increased Indebtedness may resolve or reduce these problems of Corporations. How? 1. How does M & A help solve Principal-Agent Problem? M & A leads to a change to a new and better management and thus to an enhanced EFFINCIENCY A just credible threat will wake up the existing stale management. * Target for M & A: How do you know whether a firm’s management is stale? Free Cash Flow Theory by Michael C. Jensen at Harvard Business School In his paper entitled “Agency Cost of Free Cash Flow, Corporate Finance and Takeovers”, American Economic Review (1986) * * Free Cash Flows as a Litmus Test He defines Free Cash Flows: Free Cash Flows = Cash Receipts - Cash Expenditures - Profitable (Constructive) Investment Opportunities His Observation: FCFs are the likely object of the Management’s abuse and a good indicator of the Principal-Agent Problem - The larger the FCF of a firm, the more severe the Principal-Agent Problem. *** Jensen’s FCF Theory in Reverse Gear Dictum “ The Larger the Free Cash Flow of a Firm, the More Severe the Principal-Agent Problem, and thus the Larger the Potential Benefits from M & A and Corporate Restructuring” Prediction We can also identify which firm is likely to be a target of M & A. 2. How does an Increased Indebtedness enhance Corporate Efficiency? Debt contracts have a better monitoring through Restrictive Covenant and thus less moral hazards. Conversion from Equities to Bonds in the corporate financing increases the amount of information generated about the corporate for the “Principal”. •One more incentive for increased indebtedness for the Agent * Reduced Equities also increase Management’s portion of Profits - “Incentive-Compatible” - It enhances Management’s work efforts *Numerical Example of an Increased Indebtedness enhancing Management’s Rewards Restructuring is “Leveraged” Buyout (of Shareholders) by Management Before Restructuring Debt-Equity Ratio = 0/1 = 0 Capital Profits Equity 1 After Restructuring Debt –Equity Ratio = 9 Capital Profits Shareholders’ share Debts Shareholders’ share $9,000 $9,000 $9,000 $ 900 Equity 2 Manager’s share Equity 2 Manager’s share $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $9,100 Total Total $10,000 $10,000 *assume interest rate =10%; rate of returns on capital =100% $10,000 $10,000 *Note: Manager’s profit share has increased by 810%. 3. M & A s as Child of Times Two Structural Changes as Prerequisites for a Surge of M&A Lowering Legal Barriers -Weakening of Anti-Trust Act(USA) Competition Act(Canada) Development of Financial Institutions, Market & Debt Instruments - Investment Banks, Securities Houses, Junk Bonds, (Debt-Equity) Swap, etc. *Who are the Big Players? Securities Firms Private Equity Firms. Banks’ M & A Division of Investment Banking Department For instance - Morgan Stanley - Goldman Sachs - Salomon Smith Barney - Merrill Lynch Donald Trump; Drexel Burnham, Campeu Co., T. Boone Pickens (Mesa Petrolium) **Organization of Securities Firm Securities Firm Mergers and Aquisitions Investment Banking Initial Public Offering Bought Deal Underwriting Marketed Deal Private Issue securities dealing and brockerage ***Glossaries Investment Banking -helps issue new securities in the primary market - Merchant Banking Securities Trading and Brokerage - helping trade securities in the secondary market - Dealer versus Broker - Discount Brokerage versus Full Service Brokerage Investment Dealer -dealer is principal, not agent - applicable for Bought Deal and Securities Dealer 4. Pros and Cons of M& A 1) Pros: Advocate for M & A M & A enhances Efficiency of Corporate Management, and reduces problems related to information asymmetry Natural Part of Globalization Trend Strategy for Survival from International Competition (evidence) Share price of Target Firm goes up by 30-50% before and after M & A 2) Criticism of M & A (1) Zero Sum Game for the entire economy: gains for shareholders come from someone’s loss a) Government Loss of Tax Revenues in LBO b) Wage Concessions after M & A c) Bond holders’ loss: Increased leverage - Increased Default Risk - Decreased Bond Price d) Consumers’ loss: Increased monopoly power - Higher price (2) Economic Frailty Increases (3) M & A could be costly: A High Transactions Cost (3) A Costly M & A: “ Shark Repellants” -Setting up costly barriers against M & A Green Mail -bribe to a raider away Scorch Earth - make yourself unattractive Poison Pills - sell stock under market price in case of danger Golden Parachute - big severance package for leaving executives IV. Canadian Context M & A will continue to increase M & A take on Globalization trends 1,400 $210 1,200 $180 1,000 $150 800 $120 600 $90 400 Announcements 200 $60 $30 0 0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Source: Crosbie & Company Inc. Value in $ Billions Announcements Historical Canadian Mergers & Acquisition Announcements M & A at Canadian Cross-Border YTD March 31, 1999 FY1998 FY1997 # of Transactions Value $millions # of Transactions Value $millions # of Transactions Value $millions Foreign Companies 56 2,997 309 54,176 303 25,362 Canadian Companies from Foreigners 13 3,503 46 7,081 41 4,491 Total Canadian Buyers 69 6,500 355 61,257 344 29,853 Canadian Companies 50 20,159 152 18,977 142 11,638 Foreign Companies from Canadians 13 990 60 14,068 52 15,709 Total Foreign Buyers 63 21,149 212 33,045 194 27,347 Canadians Acquiring: Foreigners Acquiring: M & A Resulting in Efficiency: CanadianCases YTD March 31, 1999 Average Purchase Price ($mil) Market Premium FY1998 Median $240.6 $29.4 FY1997 Average Median Average Median $217.1 $34.1 $126.6 $28.0 38% 33% 33% 28% 33% 26% Revenue 4.1 1.9 3.3 2 3.3 2 Net Book Value 3.8 2.1 2.8 2.3 3.7 2.3 22.4 17.9 31.1 22.2 29.3 24.2 Price Mulitples: Net Income 3. Case Studies Case Study I) Excellent Execution - Onex Corporation Classic Study Case of M & A – The Company’s objective is to build value for its investors through the acquisition of underperforming businesses( with a large amount of Free Cash Flow) financed largely with debts borrowed from third party lenders. Performances. - Acquired Celestica for C$750mm in October, 1996 which now has a market value of C$4.6 billion. - Onex announces a bid for Air Canada and Canadian Airlines during a time when the industry is struggling. Case Study - Excellent Execution - Onex Corporation Stock Price Performance September 29, 1994 - September 30, 1999 30.00 Mar 25/99: Onex announces Mar 11/99: Onex announces that it will sell 23% C$1.5bn Telecom Fund May 11/99: Onex purchases American Buildings with Telefonica of its stake in Sky 25.00 Chefs to LSG Jan 29/99: Onex announces LCS Industries acquisition 20.00 Aug 24/99: Onex announces bid 15.00 Nov 13/96: ProSource for Air Canada completes IPO of US$48mm and Canadian Airlines Oct 1/96: Onex acquires May 29/98: Onex sold Celestica for C$750mm 10.00 Oct 1/98: Onex announces SoftBank acquisition ProSource Inc. to AmeriServe Food Distribution for C$123mm 5.00 09/29/1994 04/20/1995 11/07/1995 05/29/1996 12/16/1996 07/08/1997 Onex Corp Sub Vtg 01/27/1998 08/17/1998 03/09/1999 09/27/1999 Case Study 2) - Disastrous Execution - Extendicare Stock Price Performance September 29, 1994 - September 30, 1999 Nov 26/97: Extendicare acquired 24.00 all outstanding shares of Arbor Health Care Co. for US$419mm 21.00 18.00 Nov 24/98: Extendicare intends to buy back up to 3mm of company's subordinate 15.00 voting shares Sept 17/98: Extendicare sells its U.S. pharmaceutical 12.00 operations to Omnicare Inc. for US$265mm 9.00 Feb 2/99: Extendicare's 6.00 stock dropped from TSE 100 3.00 09/29/1994 04/20/1995 11/07/1995 05/29/1996 12/16/1996 07/08/1997 01/27/1998 Extendicare Inc Cda Sub Vtg Shs 08/17/1998 03/09/1999 09/27/1999 Case Study 3 - High Yield Debt - Rogers Communications Stock Price Performance September 29, 1994 - September 30, 1999 Sep 9/99: Rogers repurchases 35.00 C$1.3bn in debt Nov 11/95: Rogers Cablesystems July 12/99: Microsoft makes C$600mm announces two new high yield investment in Rogers; Aug 16/99: Completes debt issues of US$150mm and US$125mm sale of 33% interest of Rogers Cantel to AT&T Corp and BT PLC for C$1.4bn 25.00 Jan 25/96: Issues C$75mm high yield debt July 17/97: Two new high yield debt issues of US$330mm 15.00 and C$165mm announced May 21/98: Rogers sells local Jan 16/96: Issues US$100mm telephone services to high yield debt Metronet for C$1bn 5.00 09/29/1994 04/20/1995 11/07/1995 05/29/1996 12/16/1996 07/08/1997 Rogers Communications Inc Cl B 01/27/1998 08/17/1998 03/09/1999 09/27/1999