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ASFPM 2011 Annual Conference RISING TIDES: West Coast Sea Level Rise Implications for Infrastructure Improvements and Coastal Flood Protection Darryl Hatheway, Sr. Coastal Scientist AECOM (San Diego) May 18, 2011 Rising Tides 2 Agenda (Yes, Sea Level Rise is a Fact!) • Sea Level Rise – CA projections for 2100 • Infrastructure Impacts to SLR – CA, SF Bay, City of San Francisco, & So. CA • Adaptation strategies: – NOAA & BCDC: Adapting to Rising Tides (ART) – AECOM MTC Rising Tides Pilot Study Rising Tides 3 San Francisco-observed sea level with trend of 19.3 cm (0.63 feet) rise per century Source: California Climate Action Team Report 2006 This is a graph of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay. The most important thing to note about this graph is that it is not a prediction. This is history. Rising Tides Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Study CA Projected 1.4 meter (4.5 ft) SLR by 2100 Rising Tides 5 Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Study Rising Tides 6 Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Study Rising Tides 7 What is at risk in CA by 2100 w/ 1.4 m SLR? POPULATION WETLANDS & COASTS An estimated An estimated 480,000 people 670 square will be at to risk miles of increased 100-yr wetlands will flooding, with be impacted San Mateo & by 100-yr Orange flooding, and Counties each 40 square having 110,000 miles of CA people coast will be impacted. lost to due to SLR induced beach and bluff erosion. Rising Tides ROADWAYS ENERGY WASTEWATER An estimated 3,500 miles of roads and highways, and 280 miles of railways will be at risk of inundation by 100-yr flood event in 2100. There are 30 coastal power plants that will be flooded by 100-yr event, which provide a combined energy output of 10,000 megawatts. There are 29 wastewater treatment plants on San Francisco Bay (22) and Pacific Ocean (7) that treat 530 million gallons of sewage each day that will be impacted. 8 $36,000,000,000 at risk Thirty-six billion dollars of shoreline development will be at risk of flooding by mid-century, and $62 billion by the end of the century. •99 miles of major road and highway •81 schools •70 miles of railroad •42 healthcare facilities •22 wastewater treatment facilities •11 fire stations •9 police stations •5 major ports Rising Tides 9 San Francisco Infrastructure Impacts from SLR • Within the City of San Francisco the Sewer System collects 92% of the City’s wastewater and stormwater in a combined Sewer System that consists of: – 3 treatment facilities, – 4 outfalls, – 27 pump stations, – 36 combined sewer discharge (CSD) structures (or nearshore outfalls), force mains, tunnels, transport/storage structures, – 25,000 catch basins, – 24,800 manholes, and – more than 976 miles of sewers. Rising Tides 10 San Francisco Infrastructure Impacts to SLR • Treasure Island/Yerba Buena Island (TI/YBI) area is served by a separate system that currently relies on pumping to convey sewage to a secondary facility for treatment and discharge. The TI/YBI separate collection system consists of: – 10 miles of sewers and – 29 wastewater pump stations (2 located on YBI). – Wastewater from YBI is pumped to TI via a 6-inch submarine force main. – The stormwater collection system includes 6 stormwater pump stations and 50 willow water outfalls (at TI). New infrastructure must accommodate expected sea level rise within the service life of the asset (i.e., 16 inches by 2050, 25 inches by 2070, and 55 inches by 2100). Rising Tides 11 So. CA Infrastructure Impacts from SLR • In the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana region, sea level rise could expose $96.5 billion of infrastructure to damage. • The San Diego Unified Port District said a 55-inch rise was likely to result in substantial effects and flooding of some facilities in both urban and wildlife areas, according to the report. • An assessment was released by the Munich, Germany, office of the World Wildlife Fund, the Munich-based insurer Allianz, and the Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia: It said, “cities like New York could face damages in the hundreds of billions of dollars if rising sea level is combined with hurricane storm surges.” Rising Tides 12 Rising Tides 13 The Costs of Flood Protection in the Bay Area The costs of flood protection vary by strategy. Generally, seawalls and levees bring additional costs, such as increasing erosion and removing habitat, while wetlands bring numerous additional benefits, including enhancing habitat and sequestering carbon. Type of protection New levee Range of costs from Bay Area projects( in year 2000 dollars) $725–$2,228 per linear foot Maintenance costs 10% annually Raised/upgraded levee $223–$1,085 per linear foot 10% annually New seawall $2,646–$6,173 per linear foot 1–4% annually Restored tidal marsh $5,000–$200,000 per acre unknown (source: SPUR May 2011) Rising Tides 14 ART Project Goal The goal of the ART project is to increase the preparedness and resilience of Bay Area communities to sea level rise and other climate change impacts while protecting ecosystem and community services. Rising Tides 15 Rising Tides 16 Rising Tides 17 Rising Tides 18 City of Chula Vista Climate Change Adaptation Strategy • A climate change working group composed of residential, business, and community-group representatives is developing the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy, which will be incorporated into the City of Chula Vista’s current Climate Action Plan. Rising Tides 19 City of Chula Vista Climate Change Adaptation Strategy • The strategy will evaluate how Chula Vista could adapt to potential climate change impacts in water and energy management, infrastructure and resources, public health, wildfires, ecosystems and biodiversity, and business and economy. Rising Tides 20 Rising Tides 21 SF Bay Metropolitan Transportation Commission • AECOM is leading the effort in assisting MTC, BCDC and CalTrans with a climate change vulnerability and risk assessment of transportation assets in a subregion of the San Francisco Bay Area. • This pilot project will produce a detailed subregional vulnerability analysis of sea level rise (SLR) impacts on regionally important transportation infrastructure. Rising Tides 22 SF Bay Metropolitan Transportation Commission • It will also identify implementable strategies for addressing vulnerabilities in ways that advance regional goals for transit-oriented focused growth. • The subregional focus of this pilot will also serve as a testing ground for the FHWA conceptual risk assessment model to determine its strengths and areas where it can be improved. Rising Tides 23 But our strategy for the region has to be more than building seawalls around urban areas and retreating from the shoreline in rural areas. We need a more nuanced approach, one that attacks the problem of sea level rise with a new type of resilient shoreline development. FIGHT? Or… FLIGHT? Questions? • [email protected] Rising Tides 26