Download West Coast Sea Level Rise Implications for Infrastructure

ASFPM 2011 Annual Conference
RISING TIDES:
West Coast Sea Level Rise Implications
for Infrastructure Improvements and
Coastal Flood Protection
Darryl Hatheway, Sr. Coastal Scientist
AECOM (San Diego)
May 18, 2011
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Agenda
(Yes, Sea Level Rise is a Fact!)
• Sea Level Rise
– CA projections for 2100
• Infrastructure Impacts to SLR
– CA, SF Bay, City of San Francisco, & So. CA
• Adaptation strategies:
– NOAA & BCDC: Adapting to Rising Tides (ART)
– AECOM MTC Rising Tides Pilot Study
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San Francisco-observed sea level with trend of 19.3 cm (0.63 feet) rise per century
Source: California Climate Action Team Report 2006
This is a graph of sea level rise in San Francisco Bay. The most important thing to
note about this graph is that it is not a prediction. This is history.
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Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Study
CA Projected 1.4 meter (4.5 ft) SLR by 2100
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Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Study
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Pacific Institute Sea Level Rise Study
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What is at risk in CA by 2100 w/ 1.4 m SLR?
POPULATION
WETLANDS
& COASTS
An estimated
An estimated
480,000 people
670 square
will be at to risk miles of
increased 100-yr wetlands will
flooding, with
be impacted
San Mateo &
by 100-yr
Orange
flooding, and
Counties each
40 square
having 110,000
miles of CA
people
coast will be
impacted.
lost to due to
SLR induced
beach and
bluff erosion.
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ROADWAYS
ENERGY
WASTEWATER
An estimated
3,500 miles of
roads and
highways, and
280 miles of
railways will be
at risk of
inundation by
100-yr flood
event in 2100.
There are 30
coastal power
plants that will
be flooded by
100-yr event,
which provide a
combined
energy output
of 10,000
megawatts.
There are 29
wastewater
treatment plants
on San
Francisco Bay
(22) and Pacific
Ocean (7) that
treat 530 million
gallons of
sewage each
day that will be
impacted.
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$36,000,000,000 at risk
Thirty-six billion dollars of shoreline
development will be at risk of flooding
by mid-century, and $62 billion by the
end of the century.
•99 miles of major road and highway
•81 schools
•70 miles of railroad
•42 healthcare facilities
•22 wastewater treatment facilities
•11 fire stations
•9 police stations
•5 major ports
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San Francisco Infrastructure Impacts from SLR
• Within the City of San Francisco the Sewer System collects 92% of the
City’s wastewater and stormwater in a combined Sewer System that
consists of:
– 3 treatment facilities,
– 4 outfalls,
– 27 pump stations,
– 36 combined sewer discharge (CSD) structures (or nearshore
outfalls), force mains, tunnels, transport/storage structures,
– 25,000 catch basins,
– 24,800 manholes, and
– more than 976 miles of sewers.
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San Francisco Infrastructure Impacts to SLR
• Treasure Island/Yerba Buena Island (TI/YBI) area is served by a
separate system that currently relies on pumping to convey sewage to a
secondary facility for treatment and discharge. The TI/YBI separate
collection system consists of:
– 10 miles of sewers and
– 29 wastewater pump stations (2 located on YBI).
– Wastewater from YBI is pumped to TI via a 6-inch submarine force
main.
– The stormwater collection system includes 6 stormwater pump
stations and 50 willow water outfalls (at TI).
New infrastructure must accommodate expected sea level rise within
the service life of the asset (i.e., 16 inches by 2050, 25 inches by 2070,
and 55 inches by 2100).
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So. CA Infrastructure Impacts from SLR
• In the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana region, sea level rise
could expose $96.5 billion of infrastructure to damage.
• The San Diego Unified Port District said a 55-inch rise was likely
to result in substantial effects and flooding of some facilities in both
urban and wildlife areas, according to the report.
• An assessment was released by the Munich, Germany, office of
the World Wildlife Fund, the Munich-based insurer Allianz, and the
Tyndall Center for Climate Change Research at the University of
East Anglia: It said, “cities like New York could face damages in the
hundreds of billions of dollars if rising sea level is combined with
hurricane storm surges.”
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The Costs of Flood Protection in the Bay Area
The costs of flood protection vary by strategy. Generally, seawalls and
levees bring additional costs, such as increasing erosion and removing
habitat, while wetlands bring numerous additional benefits, including
enhancing habitat and sequestering carbon.
Type of protection
New levee
Range of costs from Bay Area
projects( in year 2000 dollars)
$725–$2,228 per linear foot
Maintenance costs
10% annually
Raised/upgraded levee
$223–$1,085 per linear foot
10% annually
New seawall
$2,646–$6,173 per linear foot
1–4% annually
Restored tidal marsh
$5,000–$200,000 per acre
unknown
(source: SPUR May 2011)
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ART Project Goal
The goal of the ART project is to increase
the preparedness and resilience of Bay
Area communities to sea level rise and
other climate change impacts while
protecting ecosystem and community
services.
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City of Chula Vista
Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy
• A climate change working
group composed of
residential, business, and
community-group
representatives is
developing the Climate
Change Adaptation
Strategy, which will be
incorporated into the City
of Chula Vista’s current
Climate Action Plan.
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City of Chula Vista
Climate Change
Adaptation Strategy
• The strategy will evaluate
how Chula Vista could
adapt to potential climate
change impacts in water
and energy management,
infrastructure and
resources, public health,
wildfires, ecosystems and
biodiversity, and business
and economy.
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SF Bay Metropolitan Transportation Commission •
AECOM is leading the effort in
assisting MTC, BCDC and
CalTrans with a climate
change vulnerability and risk
assessment of transportation
assets in a subregion of the
San Francisco Bay Area.
• This pilot project will produce a
detailed subregional
vulnerability analysis of sea
level rise (SLR) impacts on
regionally important
transportation infrastructure.
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SF Bay Metropolitan Transportation Commission •
It will also identify
implementable strategies for
addressing vulnerabilities in
ways that advance regional
goals for transit-oriented
focused growth.
• The subregional focus of this
pilot will also serve as a testing
ground for the FHWA
conceptual risk assessment
model to determine its
strengths and areas where it
can be improved.
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But our strategy for the region has to be more than
building seawalls around urban areas and retreating from
the shoreline in rural areas.
We need a more nuanced approach, one that attacks the
problem of sea level rise with a new type of resilient
shoreline development.
FIGHT? Or…
FLIGHT?
Questions?
• [email protected]
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