Download 1 [10-430] MOBY: Modeling Ocean Variability and Biogeochemical

[10-430] MOBY: Modeling Ocean Variability and Biogeochemical Cycles
[10-430]
PI
John C. Marshall*
Co-PIs
Stephanie V. Dutkietwicz,
Raffaele Ferrari, Glenn R.
Flierl, Michael J. Follows
William G. Large
Dennis J. McGillicuddy
*Overall Project Lead
Collaborating Institutions
Massachusetts Institute of
Technology
NCAR
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst
*Lead Institution
Intellectual merit. This proposal focuses on decadal predictability of the ocean component of
the climate system, both in its physical and biogeochemical aspects. It attempts to advance
understanding of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes in the ocean that
respond to, and feedback on, the global climate. Physical and biogeochemical activity on the
mesoscale, the scale at which most of the kinetic energy in the ocean resides, is thought to play
a major role in controlling the ability of the ocean to sequester heat and carbon in to its interior
on interannual to decadal timescales. The mesoscale and its interaction with biogeochemical
cycles must therefore be either resolved, or understood and parameterized, before we can have
con󲐀dence in decadal climate predictions. The current generation of ocean climate models,
however, do not resolve the mesoscale, and, if they represent biogeochemistry at all, only a few
‘compartments’ are included. To address this challenge, scientists at the Massachusetts
Institute of Technology (lead institution), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and
the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), propose a multi-scale modeling
approach in which: 1. regional, high-resolution models are embedded in global, coarser-scale
ocean models. The resulting numerical ‘zoom lenses’ will be deployed in key regions of climate
variability in an attempt to resolve the mesoscale and submesoscale environment experienced
by ocean ecosystems, but embedded in a global model, 2. models of biogeochemical cycles
are overlain to study the interaction of ecosystems with fully-resolved mesoscale turbulence.
‘Self-assembling’ ecosystem models will be employed that have the capacity to represent the
response of the ecosystem to the changing environment and modes of variability, 3. the
integrated effects on heat/carbon uptake, and ecosystem community structure are studied. The
global context of our calculations will allow plausible inferences to be made about the recited
effects of mesoscale physical, chemical and biological interactions and inform strategies to
parameterize them in the coarser-resolution coupled climate models used in projections of
decadal variability and climate change. These overlapping activities will be focused on three
regions of strong natural variability where there is vigorous small-scale variability: the equatorial
Pacific, the Southern Ocean and the subtropical northwest Atlantic. The associated modes of
variability are ENSO, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO),
respectively.
Broader Impacts.The proposed research is key to our understanding and modeling the ocean
and life within it, the evolution of life within the ocean over earth history, the global cycle of
carbon and nutrients, the conservation and exploitation of the ocean’s natural resources,
management of 󲐀sheries, geoengineering (to inform decisions about the pros and cons of
attempting to ameliorate anthropogenic impacts) and ocean acidifcation, among many other
grand challenges. Finally, the broader impacts of this project fall into two main categories as
outlined in NSF’s Merit Review Broader Impacts Criterion: Representative Activities (July 2007):
1) “advance discovery and understanding while promoting teaching, training and learning”, and
2) “broad dissemination to enhance scientific and technological understanding”.
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