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Download 1 [10-430] MOBY: Modeling Ocean Variability and Biogeochemical
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[10-430] MOBY: Modeling Ocean Variability and Biogeochemical Cycles [10-430] PI John C. Marshall* Co-PIs Stephanie V. Dutkietwicz, Raffaele Ferrari, Glenn R. Flierl, Michael J. Follows William G. Large Dennis J. McGillicuddy *Overall Project Lead Collaborating Institutions Massachusetts Institute of Technology NCAR Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst *Lead Institution Intellectual merit. This proposal focuses on decadal predictability of the ocean component of the climate system, both in its physical and biogeochemical aspects. It attempts to advance understanding of the coupled physical, chemical and biological processes in the ocean that respond to, and feedback on, the global climate. Physical and biogeochemical activity on the mesoscale, the scale at which most of the kinetic energy in the ocean resides, is thought to play a major role in controlling the ability of the ocean to sequester heat and carbon in to its interior on interannual to decadal timescales. The mesoscale and its interaction with biogeochemical cycles must therefore be either resolved, or understood and parameterized, before we can have condence in decadal climate predictions. The current generation of ocean climate models, however, do not resolve the mesoscale, and, if they represent biogeochemistry at all, only a few ‘compartments’ are included. To address this challenge, scientists at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (lead institution), Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), and the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), propose a multi-scale modeling approach in which: 1. regional, high-resolution models are embedded in global, coarser-scale ocean models. The resulting numerical ‘zoom lenses’ will be deployed in key regions of climate variability in an attempt to resolve the mesoscale and submesoscale environment experienced by ocean ecosystems, but embedded in a global model, 2. models of biogeochemical cycles are overlain to study the interaction of ecosystems with fully-resolved mesoscale turbulence. ‘Self-assembling’ ecosystem models will be employed that have the capacity to represent the response of the ecosystem to the changing environment and modes of variability, 3. the integrated effects on heat/carbon uptake, and ecosystem community structure are studied. The global context of our calculations will allow plausible inferences to be made about the recited effects of mesoscale physical, chemical and biological interactions and inform strategies to parameterize them in the coarser-resolution coupled climate models used in projections of decadal variability and climate change. These overlapping activities will be focused on three regions of strong natural variability where there is vigorous small-scale variability: the equatorial Pacific, the Southern Ocean and the subtropical northwest Atlantic. The associated modes of variability are ENSO, the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), respectively. Broader Impacts.The proposed research is key to our understanding and modeling the ocean and life within it, the evolution of life within the ocean over earth history, the global cycle of carbon and nutrients, the conservation and exploitation of the ocean’s natural resources, management of sheries, geoengineering (to inform decisions about the pros and cons of attempting to ameliorate anthropogenic impacts) and ocean acidifcation, among many other grand challenges. Finally, the broader impacts of this project fall into two main categories as outlined in NSF’s Merit Review Broader Impacts Criterion: Representative Activities (July 2007): 1) “advance discovery and understanding while promoting teaching, training and learning”, and 2) “broad dissemination to enhance scientific and technological understanding”. 1 2