Download TNEP Energy Transformed - Lecture 1.1

ENERGY TRANSFORMED:
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SOLUTIONS FOR
CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION
MODULE A
UNDERSTANDING, IDENTIFYING AND IMPLEMENTING ENERGY
EFFICIENCY OPPORTUNITIES FOR INDUSTRIAL/COMMERCIAL
USERS – BY TECHNOLOGY
This online textbook provides free access to a comprehensive education and training package that
brings together the knowledge of how countries, specifically Australia, can achieve at least 60 percent
cuts to greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. This resource has been developed in line with the activities
of the CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship research program, which is focused on research that will
assist Australia to achieve this target. This training package provides industry, governments, business
and households with the knowledge they need to realise at least 30 percent energy efficiency savings in
the short term while providing a strong basis for further improvement. It also provides an updated
overview of advances in low carbon technologies, renewable energy and sustainable transport to help
achieve a sustainable energy future. While this education and training package has an Australian focus,
it outlines sustainable energy strategies and provides links to numerous online reports which will assist
climate change mitigation efforts globally.
CHAPTER 1: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION IN
AUSTRALIA’S ENERGY SECTOR
LECTURE 1.1: ACHIEVING A 60 PERCENT REDUCTION IN
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS BY 2050
© 2007 CSIRO and Griffith University
Copyright in this material (Work) is owned by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)
and Griffith University. The Natural Edge Project and The Australian National University have been formally granted the
right to use, reproduce, adapt, communicate, publish and modify the Project IP for the purposes of: (a) internal research
and development; and (b) teaching, publication and other academic purposes.
A grant of licence ‘to the world’ has been formally agreed and the material can be accessed on-line as an open-source
resource at www.naturaledgeproject.net/Sustainable_Energy_Solutions_Portfolio.aspx. Users of the material are permitted
to use this Work in accordance with the Copyright Act 1968 (Commonwealth) [ref s40(1A) and (1B) of the Copyright Act]. In
addition, further consent is provided to: reproduce the Work; communicate the Work to the public; and use the Work for
lecturing, or teaching in, or in connection with an approved course of study or research by an enrolled external student of
an educational institution. Use under this grant of licence is subject to the following terms: the user does not change any of
the material or remove any part of any copyright notice; the user will not use the names or logos of CSIRO or Griffith
University without prior written consent except to reproduce any copyright notice; the user acknowledge that information
contained in the work is subject to the usual uncertainties of advanced scientific and technical research; that it may not be
accurate, current or complete; that it should never be relied on as the basis for doing or failing to do something; and that in
using the Work for any business or scientific purpose you agree to accept all risks and responsibility for losses, damages,
costs and other consequences resulting directly or indirectly from so using. To the maximum extent permitted by law,
CSIRO and Griffith University exclude all liability to any person arising directly or indirectly from using the Work or any
other information from this website. The work is to be attributed as: Smith, M., Hargroves, K., Stasinopoulos, P., Stephens,
R., Desha, C., and Hargroves, S. (2007) Engineering Sustainable Solutions Program: Sustainable Energy Solutions
Portfolio, CSIRO, GU, ANU, The Natural Edge Project.
Acknowledgements
The Work was produced by The Natural Edge Project based at Griffith University and ANU using funds provided by CSIRO
and the National Framework for Energy Efficiency. The development of this publication has been supported by the
contribution of non-staff related on-costs and administrative support by the Centre for Environment and Systems Research
(CESR) at Griffith University, under the supervision of Professor Bofu Yu, and both the Fenner School of Environment and
Society and Engineering Department at the Australian National University, under the supervision of Professor Stephen
Dovers. The lead expert reviewers for the overall Work were: Adjunct Professor Alan Pears, Royal Melbourne Institute of
Technology; Geoff Andrews, Director, GenesisAuto; and Dr Mike Dennis, Australian National University.
Project Leader: Mr Karlson ‘Charlie’ Hargroves, TNEP Director
Principle Researcher: Mr Michael Smith, TNEP Research Director, ANU Research Fellow
TNEP Researchers: Mr Peter Stasinopoulos, Mrs Renee Stephens and Ms Cheryl Desha.
Copy Editor: Mrs Stacey Hargroves, TNEP Professional Editor
Graphics: Where original
graphics
have
been
enhanced for inclusion in the
document this work has been
carried out by Mrs Renee
Stephens,
Mr
Peter
Stasinopoulos and Mr Roger
Dennis.
Peer Review
Principal reviewers for the overall work were: Adjunct Professor Alan Pears – RMIT, Geoff Andrews – Director, Genesis
Now Pty Ltd, Dr Mike Dennis – ANU, Engineering Department, Victoria Hart – Basset Engineering Consultants, Molly
Olsen and Phillip Toyne - EcoFutures Pty Ltd, Glenn Platt – CSIRO, Energy Transformed Flagship, and Francis Barram –
Bond University. The following persons provided peer review for specific lectures; Dr Barry Newell – Australian national
University, Dr Chris Dunstan - Clean Energy Council, D van den Dool - Manager, Jamieson Foley Traffic & Transport Pty
Ltd, Daniel Veryard - Sustainable Transport Expert, Dr David Lindley – Academic Principal, ACS Education, Frank
Hubbard – International Hotels Group, Gavin Gilchrist – Director, BigSwitch Projects, Ian Dunlop - President, Australian
Association for the Study of Peak Oil, Dr James McGregor – CSIRO, Energy Transformed Flagship, Jill Grant –
Department of Industry Training and Resources, Commonwealth Government, Leonardo Ribon – RMIT Global
Sustainability, Professor Mark Diesendorf – University of New South Wales, Melinda Watt - CRC for Sustainable Tourism,
Dr Paul Compston - ANU AutoCRC, Dr Dominique Hes - University of Melbourne, Penny Prasad - Project Officer, UNEP
Working Group for Cleaner Production, University of Queensland, Rob Gell – President, Greening Australia, Dr Tom
Worthington -Director of the Professional Development Board, Australian Computer Society .
Enquires should be directed to:
Mr Karlson ‘Charlie’ Hargroves
Co-Founder and Director
The Natural Edge Project
www.naturaledgeproject.net/Contact.aspx
The Natural Edge Project (TNEP) is an independent non-profit Sustainability ThinkTank based in Australia. TNEP operates as a partnership for education, research and
policy development on innovation for sustainable development. TNEP's mission is to
contribute to, and succinctly communicate, leading research, case studies, tools,
policies and strategies for achieving sustainable development across government,
business and civil society. Driven by a team of early career Australians, the Project
receives mentoring and support from a range of experts and leading organisations in
Australia and internationally, through a generational exchange model.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 2 of 17
The International Energy Agency forecasts that if policies remain unchanged, world energy demand
is set to increase by over 50 percent between now and 2030.1 In Australia, CSIRO has projected that
demand for electricity will double by 2020.2 At the same time, The Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change (IPCC) has warned since 1988 that nations need to stabilise their concentrations of
CO2 equivalent emissions, requiring significant reductions in the order of 60 percent or more by
20503. This portfolio has been developed in line with the activities of the CSIRO Energy Transformed
Flagship research program; ‘the goal of Energy Transformed is to facilitate the development and
implementation of stationary and transport technologies so as to halve greenhouse gas emissions,
double the efficiency of the nation’s new energy generation, supply and end use, and to position
Australia for a future hydrogen economy’.4 There is now unprecedented global interest in energy
efficiency and low carbon technology approaches to achieve rapid reductions to greenhouse gas
emissions while providing better energy services to meet industry and society’s needs. More and
more companies and governments around the world are seeing the need to play their part in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions and are now committing to progressive targets to reduce
greenhouse gas emissions. This portfolio, The Sustainable Energy Solutions Portfolio, provides a
base capacity-building training program that is supported by various findings from a number of
leading publications and reports to prepare engineers/designers/technicians/facilities
managers/architects etc. to assist industry and society rapidly mitigate climate change.
The Portfolio is developed in three modules;
Module A: Understanding, Identifying and Implementing Energy Efficiency Opportunities for
Industrial/Commercial Users – By Technology
Chapter 1: Climate Change Mitigation in Australia’s Energy Sector
Lecture 1.1: Achieving a 60 percent Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 2050
Lecture 1.2: Carbon Down, Profits Up – Multiple Benefits for Australia of Energy Efficiency
Lecture 1.3: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Low Carbon Technologies
Lecture 1.4: A Whole Systems Approach to Energy Efficiency in New and Existing Systems
Chapter 2: Energy Efficiency Opportunities for Commercial Users
Lecture 2.1: The Importance and Benefits of a Front-Loaded Design Process
Lecture 2.2: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Commercial Buildings
Lecture 2.3: Opportunities for Improving the Efficiency of HVAC Systems
Chapter 3: Energy Efficiency Opportunities for Industrial Users
Lecture 3.1: Opportunities for Improving the Efficiency of Motor Systems
Lecture 3.2: Opportunities for Improving the Efficiency of Boiler and Steam Distribution Systems
Lecture 3.3: Energy Efficiency Improvements available through Co-Generation
International Energy Agency (2005) ‘World Energy Outlook 2005’, Press Releases, IEA, UK. Available at
http://www.iea.org/Textbase/press/pressdetail.asp?PRESS_REL_ID=163. Accessed 3 March 2007.
2
CSIRO (2006) Energy Technology, CSIRO, Australia. Available at www.det.csiro.au/PDF%20files/CET_Div_Brochure.pdf. Accessed 3
March 2007.
3
The Climate Group (2005) Profits Up, Carbon Down, The Climate Group. Available at
www.theclimategroup.org/assets/Carbon_Down_Profit_Up.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2007.
4
Energy Futures Forum (2006) The Heat Is On: The Future of Energy in Australia, CSIRO, Parts 1,2,3. Available at
http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/file/pfnd.html. Accessed 3 March 2007.
1
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 3 of 17
Module B: Understanding, Identifying and Implementing Energy Efficiency Opportunities for
Industrial/Commercial Users – By Sector
Chapter 4: Responding to Increasing Demand for Electricity
Lecture 4.1: What Factors are Causing Rising Peak and Base Load Electricity Demand in Australia?
Lecture 4.2: Demand Management Approaches to Reduce Rising ‘Peak Load’ Electricity Demand
Lecture 4.3: Demand Management Approaches to Reduce Rising ‘Base Load’ Electricity Demand
Lecture 4.4: Making Energy Efficiency Opportunities a Win-Win for Customers and the Utility: Decoupling
Energy Utility Profits from Electricity Sales
Chapter 5: Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Large Energy Using Industry Sectors
Lecture 5.1: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in the Aluminium, Steel and Cement Sectors
Lecture 5.2: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in Manufacturing Industries
Lecture 5.3: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in the IT Industry and Services Sector
Chapter 6: Energy Efficiency Opportunities in Light Industry/Commercial Sectors
Lecture 6.1: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in the Tourism and Hospitality Sectors
Lecture 6.2: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in the Food Processing and Retail Sector
Lecture 6.3: Opportunities for Energy Efficiency in the Fast Food Industry
Module C: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Low Emissions Electricity,
Transport and Distributed Energy
Chapter 7: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Low Emissions Electricity
Lecture 7.1: Opportunities and Technologies to Produce Low Emission Electricity from Fossil Fuels
Lecture 7.2: Can Renewable Energy Supply Peak Electricity Demand?
Lecture 7.3: Can Renewable Energy Supply Base Electricity Demand?
Lecture 7.4: Hidden Benefits of Distributed Generation to Supply Base Electricity Demand
Chapter 8: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Transport
Lecture 8.1: Designing a Sustainable Transport Future
Lecture 8.2: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Alternative Transport Fuels – Passenger Vehicles
Lecture 8.3: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Alternative Transport Fuels - Trucking
Chapter 9: Integrated Approaches to Energy Efficiency and Distributed Energy
Lecture 9.1: Residential Building Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Opportunities: Towards a ClimateNeutral Home
Lecture 9.2: Commercial Building Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy Opportunities: Towards ClimateNeutral Commercial Buildings
Lecture 9.3: Beyond Energy Efficiency and Distributed Energy: Options to Offset Emissions
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 4 of 17
Climate Change Mitigation in Australia’s
Energy Sector
Lecture 1.1: Achieving a 60 percent Reduction in Greenhouse Gas
Emissions by 20505
Educational Aim
The aim of this lecture is to provide an overview of the challenges and exciting opportunities facing
Australia’s energy future. A clear understanding of these opportunities and risks will assist
understanding of the range of interacting drivers for change within Australia’s energy sector. This
lecture also provides an overview of energy efficiency and low carbon technology opportunities for
Australia (to be covered in more detail throughout the three modules). This lecture will highlight that
collectively the technologies and design strategies currently available can help Australia to achieve
significant reductions in the emissions of greenhouse gases by 2050.
Essential Reading
Reference
1. Smith, M, Hargroves, K. Desha, C. Stasinopoulos, P (2009) Lecture 1.1: Risks and
Vulnerabilities from Climate Change in Australia in Smith, M., Hargroves, K., Desha,
C., and Stasinopoulos, P. (2009) Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions
for Climate Change Adaptation, The Natural Edge Project (TNEP), Griffith University,
and
Australian
National
University,
Australia.
Available
at
www.naturaledgeproject.net/Sustainable_Water_Solutions_Portfolio.aspx#WaterTran
sformedLecture1_1. Accessed 8 October 2012.
Page
pp 4-7
2. Hargroves, K., and Smith, M.H. (eds) (2005) The Natural Advantage of Nations:
Business Opportunities, Innovation and Governance in the 21st Century, Earthscan,
London: Chapter 17: ‘Profitable Greenhouse Solutions’, (9 pgs). Available at
pp 326www.naturaledgeproject.net/NAON1Chapter17.1.3.aspx. Accessed 8 October 2012.
337
3. Smith, M., and Hargroves, K., (2006) ‘The First Cuts Must Be the Deepest’, CSIRO
ECOS, Issue 128, Australia. Available at
www.publish.csiro.au/?act=view_file&file_id=Ec128p8.pdf. Accessed 8 October 2012.
4. Smith, M. Hargroves, K. Desha, C. (2010) Chapter 6 – Responding to the
Complexity of Climate in Cents and Sustainability: Securing Our Common Future by
Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures, Routledge, London.
Available at www.naturaledgeproject.net/Documents/CentsandSustainabilityChapter6.pdf. Accessed 8 October 2012.
5
3 pages
Pp 177185
Peer review by Adjunct Professor Alan Pears – RMIT, and Molly Olsen and Phillip Toyne – EcoFutures Pty Ltd.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 5 of 17
Learning Points
The mission of [CSIRO’s] Energy Transformed is... to develop low emission energy
technologies and systems delivering cost competitive energy services that meet the
economic, social and environmental needs of Australians.
John Wright, Director CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship
1. Energy is a key input into our personal and business activity. Energy, in some form, is involved in
most household activities, such as heating, cooling, cooking, lighting, transport or simply
enjoying products and services that require energy. Greenhouse gas emissions from energy
used in the home amounts to 20 percent of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions. Companies
use energy in most of their activities, whether it is processing and manufacturing materials,
transportation, heating and cooling premises, providing telecommunication services, or powering
computers.
2. The energy industry itself is also big business. As the CSIRO Energy Futures Forum stated,
‘Australia’s energy sector directly employs some 120,000 Australians through the production and
supply of stationary energy (such as electricity and gas), transport energy (mainly petroleumbased fuels) and energy for export. Australians spend about $50 billion on energy each year,
with energy-related sectors, such as electricity, mining and transport, accounting for some 11 per
cent of Australian Gross Domestic.’6
3. There are significant drivers for change affecting Australia’s energy industry, such as:
-
Opportunities to Improve Energy Infrastructure: Most of Australia’s infrastructure either needs
maintenance, retrofitting or will roll over in the next 30-40 years, including many of Australia’s
coal fired power stations - this presents a ‘once in a generation opportunity’ to upgrade the
energy generation infrastructure with low carbon technologies.
-
Risks of High Oil Prices: Modern economies’ transportation needs are remarkably dependant
on oil and yet oil production has now peaked in over 60 countries (oil in the USA peaked in
1972).7 High oil prices and concerns over greenhouse gas emissions from the transport
sector have combined to create significant political, technical and societal interest in the
alternatives.
-
Climate Change: The biggest overall driver for change for the energy sector is the risk posed
by human induced climate change.
4. Currently, most of the energy used in Australia produces greenhouse gas emissions. The IPCC
has been warning since 1988 that to avoid dangerous climate change, greenhouse gas
reductions of 60 percent by 2050 is needed. The latest climate change science represented in
the 2007 IPCC 4th assessment8 is calling on nations to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 5085 percent by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change.
5. The CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship research program is focused on this challenge. As
6
Energy Futures Forum (2006) The Heat Is On: The Future of Energy in Australia, CSIRO, Parts 1,2,3. Available at
http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/file/pfnd.html. Accessed 3 March 2007.
7
US Department of Defence (2003) A Strategy: Moving America Away From Oil: Technology Fuel Efficiency, Office of Net Assessment,
Office of the Secretary of Defence.
8
IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report. WG2: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, IPCC. Available at
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2007.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 6 of 17
CSIRO states, 9
The goal of Energy Transformed is to facilitate the development and implementation of
stationary and transport technologies so as to halve greenhouse gas emissions, double the
efficiency of the nation’s new energy generation, supply and end use, and to position
Australia for a future hydrogen economy.
6. Numerous technical and economic studies show that reductions of 40-60 percent of greenhouse
gas emissions by 2050 are achievable for OECD nations through a combination of demand
management, energy efficiency, and low carbon technologies such as renewable energy and
carbon capture and storage (see Optional Reading).
7. One of the reasons that such deep cuts can be achieved in Australia is because there are still
energy efficiency gains of up to 30 percent yet to be realised, with a four year or less pay back
period, and up to 70 percent energy efficiency gains with an eight year or less pay back period in
the Australian economy. This is the finding of an important government study co-ordinated by
State and the Federal governments which led to the formation of the National Framework for
Energy Efficiency (NFEE).10
8. Many governments around the world are aware of such studies and have now committed to 60
percent reductions or better by 2050. This includes nations such a UK, France, Germany, and
Sweden. The California government in the USA has gone further and adopted a target of 80
percent by 2050, and New Zealand and Norway recently have committed to becoming climate
neutral. In Australia, the Federal Labour Party has committed to 60 percent reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as have the South Australian, Victorian and New South
Wales Governments.11
9
Energy Futures Forum (2006) The Heat Is On: The Future of Energy in Australia, Energy Futures Forum, Parts 1, 2, 3. Available at
http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/file/pfnd.html. Accessed 3 March 2007.
10
Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Working Group (2003) Towards a National Framework for Energy Efficiency – Issues and
Challenges Discussion Paper, National Framework for Energy Efficiency (NFEE). Available at
http://www.nfee.gov.au/about_nfee.jsp?xcid=64. Accessed 20 April 2007.
11
NSW Government (2006) NSW Renewable Energy target: Explanation Paper, NSW Government, Australia Available at
http://www.deus.nsw.gov.au/Publications/NRET%20Explanatory%20Paper%20FINAL.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2007.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 7 of 17
Brief Background Information
Energy, in some form, is involved in most household, business and government activities. There are
significant drivers for change affecting Australia’s energy industry, such as risks from climate change
peaking of Australian oil production, threats of sabotage to centralised energy supply systems, aging
energy infrastructure, and technological and design innovations. But the biggest driver for change for
the energy sector is the risk posed by human induced climate change. Currently, most of the energy
used in Australia produces greenhouse gas emissions. There is now widespread recognition that
Australia needs to significantly improve the efficiency with which we use energy and decarbonise the
energy sector as a whole. The CSIRO Energy Transformed Flagship research program is focused
on this challenge. As CSIRO states, 12
The goal of Energy Transformed is to facilitate the development and implementation of
stationary and transport technologies so as to halve greenhouse gas emissions, double the
efficiency of the nation’s new energy generation, supply and end use, and to position
Australia for a future hydrogen economy.
Since mid 2006 there has been a huge shift in attitude and understanding in the business,
government and broader community concerning these issues. In fact, it could be argued that the
launch of Al Gore’s film An Inconvenient Truth,13 the recent IPCC reports, and the Stern Review,14
may be seen by future generations as an historic tipping point; when Australians finally understood
the seriousness of the risks of human induced climate change. Events like ‘Cyclone Larry’ (which hit
Innisfail), crops failing, the worsening drought, the early start to and intensity of the 2006–2007
bushfire season leading to rolling black-outs in Victoria, and the bleaching of the coral of the Great
Barrier Reef, are already giving Australians a tangible sense of what it will be like trying to adapt to
climate change over the coming decades.
This recent shift in attitude has been followed by the launch in 2007 of the 4 th Assessment by the
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). This latest Assessment by the IPCC has effectively
ended debate concerning key aspects of the science of climate change, providing an ‘unequivocal’
link between climate change and current human activities, especially burning fossil fuels,
deforestation and land clearing, the use of synthetic greenhouse gases, and decomposition of
wastes from landfill.
The IPCC’s report for Australia, published on 6 April 2007 warned that if no action was taken, climate
change would cause the following to occur: 15
-
As a result of reduced precipitation and increased evaporation, water security problems are
projected to intensify by 2030 in southern and eastern Australia and in New Zealand, in
Northland and some eastern regions.
-
Significant loss of biodiversity is projected to occur by 2020 in some ecologically-rich sites
including the Great Barrier Reef and Queensland Wet Tropics. Other sites at risk include Kakadu
wetlands, south-west Australia, sub-Antarctic islands and the alpine areas of both countries.
12
Energy Futures Forum (2006) The Heat Is On: The Future of Energy in Australia, CSIRO, Parts 1,2,3. Available at
http://www.csiro.au/csiro/content/file/pfnd.html. Accessed 3 March 2007.
13
Smith, M. and Hargroves, K. (2007) ‘The Gore Factor: Reviewing the impact of An Inconvenient Truth’, CSIRO ECOS, Australia.
Available at www.publish.csiro.au/?act=view_file&file_id=EC134p16.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2007.
14
Stern, N. (2006) The Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Available at
www.hmtreasury.gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/sternreview_index.cfm. Accessed 14 April 2007.
15
IPCC (2007) Fourth Assessment Report. WG2: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation & Vulnerability, IPCC, Unit 11. Available at
http://www.ipcc.ch/SPM6avr07.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2007.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 8 of 17
-
Ongoing coastal development and population growth in areas such as Cairns and Southeast
Queensland (Australia) and Northland to Bay of Plenty (New Zealand), are projected to
exacerbate risks from sea-level rise and increases in the severity and frequency of storms and
coastal flooding by 2050.
-
Production from agriculture and forestry by 2030 is projected to decline over much of southern
and eastern Australia, and over parts of eastern New Zealand, due to increased drought and fire.
However, in New Zealand, initial benefits to agriculture and forestry are projected in western and
southern areas and close to major rivers due to a longer growing season, less frost and
increased rainfall.
-
The region has substantial adaptive capacity due to well developed economies and scientific and
technical capabilities, but there are considerable constraints to implementation and major
challenges from changes in extreme events. Natural systems have limited adaptive capacity.
The IPCC 4th Assessment is a significant call for action, and its findings for Australia have been
backed up by the CSIRO and Bureau of Meteorology in a report titled, Climate change in Australia,16
launched in October 2007. The report found that ‘by 2030, temperatures will rise by about 1 ºC over
Australia – a little less in coastal areas, and a little more inland - later in the century, warming
depends on the extent of greenhouse gas emissions. If emissions are low, warming of between 1 ºC
and 2.5 ºC is likely by around 2070, with a best estimate of 1.8 ºC. Under a high emission scenario,
the best estimate warming is 3.4 ºC, with a range of 2.2 ºC to 5 ºC. Further, the report indicates there
will be changes in temperature extremes, with fewer frosts and substantially more days over 35 ºC.’
The CSIRO report also predicts that decreases in annual average rainfall are likely in southern
Australia, and by 2030, there will be little annual rainfall change in the far north. Other findings
include:17
-
‘droughts are likely to become more frequent, particularly in the south-west,
-
evaporation rates are likely to increase, particularly in the north and east,
-
high-fire-danger weather is likely to increase in the south-east,
-
tropical cyclones are likely to become more intense, and
-
sea levels will continue to rise.’
In 1988, the IPCC called for 60 percent reductions in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 but in
2007, the IPCC launched its 4th Assessment calling for even higher reductions by 2050. This time
the IPCC has called for 60-85 percent reductions by 2050. James Hansen from NASA, one of the
world’s leading scientists and members of the IPCC stated that, ‘The question is, what is the level of
global warming that would constitute dangerous climate change? We wrote an article in about the
year 2000 in which we argued that 1 degree Celsius additional warming might be OK, but 2 or 3
degrees is not. But what's now become clear is that maybe 1 degree Celsius [additional to 2000] is
dangerous, because already we're seeing on West Antarctica a net loss of ice and the ocean is
warming and it is beginning to melt the ice shelves. The other change that has occurred, as many
16
CSIRO and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2007) Climate change in Australia: technical report, CSIRO, p 148. Available at
http://www.csiro.au/resources/ps3j6.html Accessed 5 October 2007.
17
Ibid.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 9 of 17
people predicted, is that China and India, the developing world, have increased their emissions at a
significant rate in the last decade. So it really is becoming more urgent.’18
The IPCC 4th assessment for the first time also provided economic modelling that showed that
achieving a target of 85 percent would result in negligible negative effects on global economic
growth. As Liz Minchin reported in The Age newspaper on the 5th of May 2007,19
[The latest IPCC report outlines that]… the world has less than eight years to arrest global
warming or risk what many scientists warn could be catastrophic changes to the planet… Its
conclusion that global emission cuts of between 50 to 85 per cent would be needed to stop
the temperature rising beyond two degrees. It found that slashing greenhouse emissions by
up to 85 percent could cost only 0.12 per cent of global gross domestic product a year to
2050.
A range of studies now show that achieving reductions of 40-60 percent in greenhouse gas
emissions by 2050 is technically and economically achievable for Australia. Eight studies from the
UK, USA, Canada and Australia have been undertaken and show how to achieve 40-60 percent cuts
to greenhouse gas emissions cost effectively by 2050.20 Recent studies have been undertaken that
show how to achieve 60 percent reductions or better for Australia,21 with specific recommendations
for the states of Victoria, NSW, Queensland and Western Australia. 22
Sheppard, K. (2007) ‘Clarion Caller: An interview with renowned climate scientist James Hansen’, Grist Environmental News and
Commentary. Available at http://www.grist.org/news/maindish/2007/05/15/hansen/. Accessed 20 April 2007.
19
Minchin, L. (2007) ‘A Climate of Change’, The Age, Australia. Available at http://www.theage.com.au/news/national/a-climate-ofchange/2007/05/04/1177788398904.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1. Accessed 5 May 2007.
20
The relevant Australian deep cut studies to date are: Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change (2006) The business case for
early action, ABRCC. Available at www.businessroundtable.com.au. Accessed 20 April 2007; Saddler, H., Diesendorf, M. and Denniss, R.
(2004) A Clean Energy Future for Australia Energy Strategies, WWF, Canberra. Available at
http://wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/. Accessed 20 April 2007; Prime Minister’s Science, Engineering and
Innovation Council (2002) Beyond Kyoto - Innovation and Adaptation, Department of Education, Science and Training, Australia. Available
at www.dest.gov.au/sectors/science_innovation/publications_resources/profiles/beyond_kyoto_innovation_and_adaptation.htm. Accessed
20 April 2007; Turton, H., Ma, J., Saddler, H. and Hamilton, C. (2002) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios: a pilot study of how
Australia can achieve deep cuts in emissions, Australia Institute Paper No 48. Available at
http://www.tai.org.au/WhatsNew_Files/WhatsNew/DP48sum.pdf. Accessed 20 April 2007.
21
Ibid.
22
Saddler. H., Diesendorf, M. and Denniss, R. (2004) A Clean Energy Future for Australia Energy Strategies, Energy Strategies Pty Ltd for
the Clean Energy Future Group, WWF, Canberra Available at http://wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/. Accessed 20
April 2007.
18
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 10 of 17
Table 1.1.1. Summary of climate change impacts on Australia across selected areas
Source: CSIRO Marine & Atmospheric Research (2006)23
23
Preston, B.L. and Jones, R.N. (2006) Climate Change Impacts on Australia and the Benefits of Early Action to Reduce Global
Greenhouse Gas Emissions, CSIRO. Available at http://www.csiro.au/files/files/p6fy.pdf. Accessed 3 January 2007.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 11 of 17
A number of costed studies24 show that OECD nations can reduce their greenhouse gas emissions
by 40-60 percent by 2050 through combining advanced energy efficiency approaches with low
carbon technologies - again while maintaining strong economic growth rates. These studies are
freely available and show how large greenhouse gas reductions can be achieved. Each of the
studies regard energy efficiency important, but all find energy efficiency alone is insufficient for large
reductions. They also show there is a need to reduce the carbon emissions from energy production
as well as through alternative fuels in the transport sector. These studies provide significant
evidence that the goal of the Energy Transformed Flagship, ‘to halve greenhouse gas emissions’, is
economically and technically achievable.
A summary of some of the key results from these studies is presented in Table 1.1.2. One of the
reasons that such deep cuts can be achieved in Australia is because there are still energy efficiency
gains of up to 30 percent yet to be realised, with a four year or less pay back period, and up to 70
percent energy efficiency gains, with an eight year or less pay back period in the Australian
economy. This is the finding of an important government report co-ordinated by state and the
Federal governments which led to the formation of the National Framework for Energy Efficiency
(NFEE).25 Many governments around the world are aware of such studies and have now committed
to 60 percent reductions or better in CO2 by 2050. This includes nations such a UK, France,
Germany, and Sweden. The Californian government in the USA has gone even further and adopted
a target of 80 percent by 2050, and New Zealand and Norway have recently committed to becoming
climate neutral. In Australia, the Federal Labour Party has committed to 60 percent reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, as have the South Australian, Victorian and New South Wales
Governments.26 Already some businesses have committed and are making progress to significantly
reduce their greenhouse gas emissions using engineering strategies outlined in the table below.27
24
1) Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change (2006) The Business Case for Early Action, Australian Business Roundtable on
Climate Change; 2) Bailie, A., Bernow, S., Castelli, B., O’Connor, P. and Romm, J. (2003) The Path to Carbon Dioxide-Free Power:
Switching to Clean Energy in the Utility Sector, A study by Tellus Institute and Center for Energy and Climate Solutions for WWF, USA.
Available at http://assets.panda.org/downloads/wwf_powerswitch_scenario_usa.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2007; 3) Saddler, H., Diesendorf,
M. and Denniss, R. (2004) A Clean Energy Future for Australia Energy Strategies, Energy Strategies Pty Ltd for the Clean Energy Future
Group, WWF Australia. Available at http://wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/. Accessed 3 March 2007; 4)
Interlaboratory Working Group (2000) Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, Oak Ridge National Lab, Berkeley, CA. Available at
www.nrel.gov/docs/fy01osti/29379.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2007; 5) Mintzer, I., Leonard, J. A. and Schwartz, P. (2003) US Energy
Scenarios for the 21st Century, Pew Center on Global Climate Change. Available at http://www.pewclimate.org/global-warming-indepth/all_reports/energy_scenarios/index.cfm or http://www.pewclimate.org/docUploads/EnergyScenarios.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2007; 6)
Torrie, R., Parfett, R. and Steenhof, P. (2002) Kyoto and Beyond: the low emission path to innovation and efficiency, Report for David
Suzuki Foundation and Canadian Climate Action Network, Canada. Available at http://www.davidsuzuki.org/files/Kyoto_Beyond_LR.pdf.
Accessed 3 March 2007; 7) Turton, H., Ma, J., Saddler, H. and Hamilton, C. (2002) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios: a pilot study
of how Australia can achieve deep cuts in emissions, Australia Institute Paper No 48. Available a
http://www.tai.org.au/WhatsNew_Files/WhatsNew/DP48sum.pdf. Accessed 3 March 2007; 8) UK Department of Trade and Industry (2003)
Our Energy Future – Creating a Low Carbon Economy, Energy White Paper, UK Department of Trade and Industry, Version 1. Available
at http://www.dti.gov.uk/energy/energy-policy/energy-white-paper/page21223.html. Accessed 3 March 2007.
25
Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Working Group (2003) Towards a National Framework for Energy Efficiency – Issues and
Challenges Discussion Paper, NFEE. Available at http://www.nfee.gov.au/about_nfee.jsp?xcid=64. Accessed 20 April 2007.
26
NSW Department of Energy, Utilities and Sustainability (2006) NSW Renewable Energy Target: Explanatory Paper, NSW Government.
Available at http://www.deus.nsw.gov.au/Publications/NRET%20Explanatory%20Paper%20FINAL.pdf. Accessed 20 April 2007.
27
Smith, M. Hargroves, K. (2007) ‘The Gore Factor: Reviewing the impact of An Inconvenient Truth’, CSIRO ECOS, Australia. Available at
www.publish.csiro.au/?act=view_file&file_id=EC134p16.pdf. Accessed 20 April 2007.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 12 of 17
Table 1.1.2. A Selection of Strategies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions28
Sample of Energy Efficiency and Low Carbon Technology Opportunities
Average GHG
Reductions
End-Use Energy Efficiency
Hybrid cars and
trucks
In the US, Europe and Japan hybrid cars cost only marginally
more than the standard models, use ~50% less fuel, and are
selling well.
At least 50%
Electric motors
The Australian Greenhouse Office has created the ’motor
solutions’ online resource. They write that: ‘Selecting the right
motor results in large and cost-effective savings and
whole-system-design and management can achieve even greater
savings’. The use of variable speed drive (VSD) (up to 50%), 29
high-efficiency motors (28-50%)30 and improved system
management (48-55% for pumping systems,31 and 30-57% for
ventilation systems) are expected to deliver an average increase
in electric motor system efficiency of 85% by 2050. 32
Up to ~60%
Buildings
The energy efficiency of the structure of commercial buildings
(excluding equipment) can be improved by, on average, 45%
through improvements in design and construction. 33 The
Thurgoona campus of Charles Sturt University (Albury, Australia)
consumes less than half the energy of the comparable building it
replaced.34
45% on
average.
Lighting systems
Using efficient compact fluorescent lights and installing movement
sensors can improve the energy efficiency of lighting. 35
70% using a
range of
measures.36
Light emitting diodes
(LED)
Lighting in Britain and other developed nations accounts for about
20% of all electricity used. In poorer countries the figure rises to
40%.37 The US Department of Energy has estimated that light
emitting diode (LED) lighting could cut national energy
consumption for lighting by 29% by 2025. The total savings on US
household electric bills would be $125 billion.
Up to 75% in
10 to 15 years.
Residential sector
Shifting to a 5-star rating system for new homes delivers, on
average, a 55% improvement in energy efficiency (from the
current average in Australia of 1.5 stars).38 In the case of Victoria,
Australia, wall insulation is mandatory, yielding projected savings
of 45% for new homes39 Installing energy-efficient equipment in
the house will further reduce energy usage.
55% based on
uptake of
moderate
performance
improvements
28
A detailed overview of the deep cut strategies for greenhouse emissions are covered in Saddler. H., Diesendorf, M. and Denniss, R.
(2004) A Clean Energy Future for Australia Energy Strategies, Energy Strategies Pty Ltd for the Clean Energy Future Group, WWF,
Canberra. Available at http://wwf.org.au/ourwork/climatechange/cleanenergyfuture/. Accessed 20 April 2007.
29
Turton, H., Ma, J., Saddler, H. and Hamilton, C. (2002) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios: a pilot study of how Australia can
achieve deep cuts in emissions, Australia Institute Paper No 48, The Australia Institute. Available at
http://www.tai.org.au/documents/dp_fulltext/DP48.pdf. Accessed 14 April 2007.
30
CADDET (1995) Saving Energy with Electric Motor and Drive, CADDET Energy Efficiency.
31
Benders, R. and Biesiot, W. (1996) Electricity Conservation in OECD Europe, in Proceedings of the International Conference on Energy
Technologies to Reduce CO2.
32
Hamilton, C., Turton, H., Saddler, H. and Jinlong, M. (2002) Long Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios: A pilot study of how Australia can
achieve deep cuts in emissions, Discussion Paper #48, The Australia Institute.
33
Tuluca, A. (1997) Energy Efficiency Design and Construction for Commercial Buildings, MacGraw-Hill, New York.
34
CSIRO Built Environment (2000) ‘Green Campus design savings 60% on energy’, Innovation Online, Number 13.
35
Sathaye, J. and Moyers. S. (1995) Greenhouse Gas Mitigation Assessment: A Guidebook, Kluwer Academic Publishers.
36
Watts, R.G. (1997) Engineering Response to Global Climate Change, Lewis Publishers, New York.
37
,See ExressIndia.com - UK scientist's bright idea to fight global warming at
www.expressindia.com/fullstory.php?newsid=45912#compstory. Accessed 20 April 2007.
38
US Department of Energy (2002) Annual Energy Outlook 2002, US Department of Energy, Washington DC.
39
Australian Greenhouse Office (2000) Impact of Minimum Energy Performance Requirements for Class I Buildings in Victoria, Australian
Greenhouse Office, Canberra.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 13 of 17
Turning off domestic
appliances
In Australia, 10% of household electricity is used by keeping
appliances like TVs and video players on standby.
10%
Smart metering
California has embraced digital metering technology, coupled with
modern telecommunications, to allow consumers to manage their
own power use during peak hours. For two years now, consumers
have voluntarily moved to a scheme in which they pay lower rates
during off-peak times, such as after dinner. The vast majority of
householders now receive lower bills on the new rates, and 90%
of participants support it. It is now being rolled-out to all 10 million
households.
12-35%
Signalling peak
energy demand to
consumers
In California, Country Energy can signal a special peak price to
customers (about double the normal peak price) up to 12 times a
year. This coincides with exceptionally high electricity demand usually on very hot or very cold days. In response to the first of
these special peaks, customers voluntarily took actions that
reduced overall demand by 15-30%.
12-35%
Energy-efficient street
and traffic lighting
Street lighting and traffic signals can use a significant amount of
energy, and many cities have found that by replacing traditional
light fixtures with super-efficient LED bulbs, they are reaping
energy and cost savings.
Up to 50%
Dimming and turning
off unnecessary city
lighting after 12am
In Italy, many of the Italian regional and municipal administrations
have already taken strong measures to contain light pollution and,
consequently, to save energy. This includes automatically turning
off lights of government buildings after 12am.
Up to 10%
Reducing GHGs in Fossil Fuel Electric Power and Steam Generation
Co-generation
Co-generation - also known as combined heat and power (CHP) and total energy, is an efficient, clean and reliable approach to
generating power and thermal energy from a single fuel source.
That is, co-generation uses heat that is otherwise discarded from
conventional power generation to produce thermal energy. By
recycling this waste heat, co-generation systems achieve typical
effective electric efficiencies of 50% to 70% - a dramatic
improvement over the average 33% efficiency of conventional
fossil-fuelled power plants. Co-generation now produces almost
10% of our nation's electricity, saves its customers up to 40% on
their energy expenses, and reduces greenhouse gas emissions.
~25%
Tri-generation
A tri-generation plant, defined in non-engineering terminology, is
most often described as a co-generation plant that has added
absorption chillers which take the ‘waste heat’ a co-generation
plant would have ‘wasted’, and converts this ‘free energy’ into
useful energy in the form of chilled water.
~50%
New Types of Power Stations
Integrated
Gasification
Combined Cycle
(IGCC)
Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) is rapidly
emerging as one of the most promising technologies in power
generation that utilises low-quality solid and liquid fuels and is
able to meet the most stringent emissions requirements. IGCC
systems are extremely clean and are much more efficient than
traditional coal-fired systems. IGCC uses a combined cycle
format with a gas turbine driven by the combusted syngas from
the gasifier, while the exhaust gases are heat exchanged with
water/steam to generate steam to drive the steam turbine.
~50%
Carbon Sequestration
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 14 of 17
Below ground storage
of carbon dioxide
A demonstration of carbon sequestration exists in the form of a
six-year project at the Sleipner Field in the Norwegian North Sea.
Approximately one million tons of carbon dioxide has been
sequestered each year over the last five years.
Up to 100%
Coal gasification and
carbon sequestration
Coal gasification,40 that is part of the IGCC, also offers a realistic
way to separate CO2 and thus allows carbon sequestration, and
in turn potentially creates the world’s first climate neutral coal
powered station. This is the basis of the US FutureGen project. 41
The FutureGen Project is an effort to advance carbon capture and
storage technology as a way to reduce greenhouse emissions.
The project is a US$1 billion, public-private effort to construct the
world's first fossil fuel, low-pollution power plant. If oxygen is used
in a coal gasifier instead of air, CO 2 is emitted as a concentrated
gas stream. In this form, it can be captured more easily and at
lower costs for ultimate disposition in sequestration.
Up to 100%
Improving Conversion Efficiency
Pulsed combustion
CSIRO’s combustion team have developed the revolutionary
pulsed combustion technologies that promise to double thermal
energy conversion rates for numerous domestic, industrial and
commercial processes.42
Up to 70%
Super-cables instead
of traditional power
cables.
Being almost immune to resistance, superconducting power
cables lose only about a 0.5% of power during transmission,
compared to 5-8% lost by traditional power cables. These cables
also deliver more power - about three to five times more than
traditional power cables.43 As the rapid growth of urban areas
increases demand for electricity while limiting the space for
overhead and underground cable installations, the ability of these
cables to transmit more power - with less energy losses and using
the same amount of space as traditional cable - will be
increasingly important.
Up to 97%
Decarbonising Electricity Generation – Renewables
Renewables
Costs are consistently falling for renewable energy sources, such
as mini-hydro, biomass, geo-thermal, tidal and solar power.
Significant innovations are also occurring in harnessing energy
from ocean waves44 and ocean currents.45 Wind Power in areas
of high average wind is already cost competitive with coal-fired
power stations.46 Pacific Hydro Ltd (PHY) is one of the leading
renewable energy companies in Australia, the South East Asian
and Pacific area.
Up to 100%
Source: (Compiled by Smith, M from Smith, M, Pears, A. 200547)
See Cogeneration Technologies – Coal Gasification at www.cogeneration.net/Coal-Gasification.htm. Accessed 20 April 2007.
Read more about FutureGen at www.fe.doe.gov/programs/powersystems/futuregen/. Accessed 20 April 2007.
42
McAlpine, G. and Mitchell, C. (1999) CSIRO Solutions for Greenhouse: Based on an overview prepared for the Australian Greenhouse
Office, AGO, Australia.
43
See Oak Ridge National Laboratory - ‘High Temperature Superconductors: The World's First Industrial Field Test of a High-Temperature
Superconducting Cable System’ at http://www.ornl.gov/sci/htsc/documents/releases/swfieldtest.htm. Accessed 20 April 2007.
44
Wavegen Ltd, UK are a world leader in wave energy and have developed and operated the world’s first commercial-scale wave energy
device that generates power for the grid.
45
Marine Current Turbines’ Ltd technology represents a novel method for generating electricity from a huge energy resource in the sea.
Although the relentless energy of marine currents has been obvious from the earliest days of seafaring, it is only now that the development
of modern offshore engineering capabilities coinciding with the need to find large new renewable energy resources makes this a
technically feasible and economically viable possibility.
46
Jacobson, M.Z. and Gilbert M.M. (2001) ‘Wind is Competitive with Coal’, Science, no. 1438.
47
Smith, M. Pears, A. (2005) Chapter 17 Profitable Greenhouse Solutions in Hargroves, K. Smith, M. (eds) The Natural Advantage of
Nations. Business Opportunities, Innovation and Governance in the 21st Century. Routledge. London.
40
41
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 15 of 17
Optional Reading
1. Smith, M, Hargroves, K. Desha, C. Stasinopoulos, P (2009) Lecture 1.1: Risks and
Vulnerabilities from Climate Change in Australia in Smith, M., Hargroves, K., Desha, C., and
Stasinopoulos, P. (2009) Water Transformed: Sustainable Water Solutions for Climate Change
Adaptation, The Natural Edge Project (TNEP), Griffith University, and Australian National
University, Australia. pp 8-20. Available at
www.naturaledgeproject.net/Sustainable_Water_Solutions_Portfolio.aspx#WaterTransformedLec
ture1_1. Accessed 8 October 2012.
2. The Australian Climate Commission at http://climatecommission.gov.au/. Accessed 8 October
2012.
3. ClimateWorks Australia (2011) Low Carbon Growth Plan for Australia. Climate Works Australia
at www.climateworksaustralia.com/low_carbon_growth_plan.html. Accessed 8 October 2012.
4. Diesendorf, M. (2007) Paths to a Low Carbon Future Reducing Australia’s Greenhouse Gas
Emissions by 30 percent by 2020. Sustainability Centre. Accessed
www.ceem.unsw.edu.au/sites/default/files/uploads/publications/Mark_GPWedges_final.pdf.
Accessed 8 October 2012.
5. Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse Working Group (2003) Towards a National Framework for
Energy Efficiency - Issues and Challenges Discussion Paper, Energy Efficiency and Greenhouse
Working Group. Available at www.ret.gov.au/documents/mce/energyeff/nfee/_documents/nfee_discussio.pdf. Accessed 8 October 2012.
6. Australian Business Roundtable on Climate Change (2006) The Business Case for Early Action,
ABRCC. Available at www.businessroundtable.com.au. Accessed 8 October 2012.
7. Hatfield-Dodds, S., Jackson, E.K., Adams, P.D. and Gerardi, W. (2007) Leader, follower or free
rider? The economic impacts of different Australian emission targets, The Climate Institute,
Sydney, Australia. Available at
http://climateinstitute.org.au/verve/_resources/CI058_ER_FullReport_NEW.pdf. Accessed 8
October 2012.
8. Saddler, H., Diesendorf, M. and Denniss, R. (2004) A Clean Energy Future for Australia Energy
Strategies, WWF, Canberra. Available at
www.enerstrat.com.au/index.php/publications/a_clean_energy_future_for_australia/. Accessed 8
October 2012.
9. Turton, H., Ma, J., Saddler, H. and Hamilton, C. (2002) Long-Term Greenhouse Gas Scenarios:
a pilot study of how Australia can achieve deep cuts in emissions, Australia Institute Paper No
48, The Australia Institute. Available at www.tai.org.au/documents/dp_fulltext/DP48.pdf.
Accessed 8 October 2012. .
10. Interlaboratory Working Group (2000) Scenarios for a Clean Energy Future, Oak Ridge National
Laboratory, Berkeley, CA; Lawrence Berkeley Laboratory; and Golden CO: National Renewable
Energy Laboratory. Available at www.nrel.gov/docs/fy01osti/29379.pdf.accessed. Accessed 8
October 2012.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 16 of 17
Words for Searching Online
Climate Change, International Panel on Climate Change, The Climate Change Commission, CSIRO
Energy Transformed Flagship.
Prepared by The Natural Edge Project (hosted by GU and ANU, 2007)
Page 17 of 17