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Facing the Six Grand Challenges in Biosphere Research Russell K. Monson University of Colorado, Boulder C I R E S National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) "a continental scale research instrument consisting of geographically distributed infrastructure, networked via state-of-the-art communications. NEON will transform ecological research by enabling studies on major environmental challenges at regional to continental scales.” (NSF 04549, 2004) 10-20 Regional Ecological Observatories $500 million - $1 billion 30-50 year lifetime Approximately 200 US ecologists are currently participating on various NEON planning committees The US National Science Foundation has already committed $6-10 million for organizing activities and the American Institute for Biological Sciences has devoted major sponsorship to the effort Grand (Intellectual) Challenges in Environmental Sciences US National Academy of Sciences, 2003 NEON: Addressing the Nation’s Environmental Challenges US National Academy of Sciences, 2003 The Six Grand Challenges in Biosphere Research 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Ecological aspects of biogeochemical cycles Biodiversity and ecosystem function Ecological implications of climate change Ecology and evolution of infectious diseases Invasive species Land-use and habitat alteration Premise for today’s lecture: Interdisciplinary thinking must lie at the foundation of our future research efforts if we are to successfully tackle the Grand Challenges in Environmental Science. Land-use and habitat alteration Ecology and evolution of infectious diseases Invasive species Biogeochemical cycles The Web of Grand Challenges Biodiversity and ecosystem function Ecological implications of climate change Case Study #1 The Effects of Invasive Grasses on the Biogeochemical Cycling of Carbon and the Fire Cycle of Western US Ecosystems Bromus tectorum, Western Cheat Grass Invasive Brome Grasses Bromus tectorum in the U.S. Initial introduction: 1889-1902 Currently: the dominant species in over 200,000 km2 Annual grass Diploid Self-pollinating Native to Europe and southwest Asia Photo: R. Mack Increase in brome invasiveness in an atmosphere of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration Nevada Desert FACE Facility Dr. Stan Smith, University of Nevada Ambient NDFF Control ring Free-Air CO2 Exchange (FACE) 8 Years Native Great Basin shrub/grassland 365 ppm CO2 550 ppm CO2 FACE Native piece of the ecosystem at elevated CO2 or control Oblique aerial view of Ringis3;grown an elevated CO2 treatment plot CO2 After only 2 years ... Bromus rubens Shrub canopy 2 Nevada FACE Interspace 3 365 ppm CO2 Bromus rubens 4 Native annuals Relative ratio (Elevated / Ambient) 550 ppm CO2 1 0 Density Biomass Seed rain Density Biomass Seed rain After only 2 years ... Bromus rubens Shrub canopy 2 Nevada FACE Increase in fire fuel load Interspace 3 365 ppm CO2 Bromus rubens 4 Native annuals Relative ratio (Elevated / Ambient) 550 ppm CO2 1 0 Density Biomass Seed rain Density Biomass Seed rain Current CO2 An invasive shift in community composition due to elevated atmospheric CO2 results in a predicted increase in fire frequency Photos by T. Huxman & T. Esque Future CO2 Coupling Biogeochemical Cycles to Species Invasions and Landscape Alterations Atmospheric CO2 concentration community shift Bromus rubens Native annuals + + Fire frequency Ecosystem carbon storage Case Study #2 The Emission of Volatile Organic Compounds to the Atmosphere by Forest Ecosystems Reactive VOCs emitted from plants can react with NOx emitted by fossil fuel combustion, producing O3 and other forms of pollution. hν (<330 nm) (inorganic + organic) aerosols O2 + O(3P) CO2 + H OH e O2 + NO3 HNO3 NO2 PAN Vd Vd O HCO + H3 NO2 HCHO + HO2 NO + CnH(n-1)O2 CnH(n-1)O2 Vd + OH O(1D) + H2O 2OH d CnH(n-1)O2 + H2O CH3O2 + H2O OH + O2 + CnHn OH + O2 + CH4 c O3 O2 CO + HO2 O(3P) + NO O(1D) + O2 O3 + OH b a “Trees cause more pollution than automobiles.” “Approximately 80%* of our air pollution stems from hydrocarbons (VOCs) released by vegetation; so let’s not go overboard in setting and reinforcing tough emission standards from man-made sources.” Ronald Reagan, Campaign Speech 1980 Sierra (September 10, 1980), vol. 65, pg. 7 *Reagan later amended this figure to 93%. Land-Use Change Related to Forest VOC Emissions Measured change in coverage of VOC-emitting tree species in the Eastern U.S. (1980-1990) Purves et al. (2004) Global Change Biology 10: 1737-1755 250,000 plots 2.7 million trees Modeled change in VOC emissions in the Eastern US 1980-1990 Purves et al. (2004) Global Change Biology 10: 1737-1755 Causes of changes in biogenic emissions in the Eastern US 1980-1990 Purves et al. (2004) Global Change Biology 10: 1737-1755 Coupling Land-Use Change to Atmospheric Biogeochemistry ∆ Population and technology NOx emissions ∆ Land-use community shifts productivity shifts VOC-emitting trees Tropospheric O3 production Case Study #3 Climate Change Effects on Coral Reefs and Impacts on Fish Biodiversity Weekly Sea-Surface Temperature for Tahiti Reefs Hoegh-Guldberg, O (1999) Marine and Freshwater Research 50: 839-866 thermal tolerance limit 16% of global reefs severely damaged in 1998 mass bleaching due to increase in SST associated with ENSO Increased Frequency of Bleaching Predicted Using Four Climate-Change Models Hoegh-Guldberg, O (1999) Marine and Freshwater Research 50: 839-866 Decline in Acropora Corals and Associated Gobie Fish in Papua, New Guinea Munday, P.L. (2004) Global Change Biology 10: 1642-1647 Coral Fish Population Decline and Specialisation in Gobie Fish • Proportional decline correlated with specialisation • 84% of variation explained by specialisation Percent decrease abundance Percent decrease ininabundance Munday, P.L. (2004) Global Change Biology 10: 1642-1647 100 2 0.84 R2R==0.84 P < 0.01 P < 0.01 90 80 70 60 50 0 0.5 1 1.5 Index of of specialisation Index specialisation specialist specialist generalist generalist 2 Local Extinction of a Reef Fish • Gobiodon species A inhabits just one species of coral • Now locally extinct in Kimbe Bay • However, other populations exist in the Western Pacific Photo by Philip Munday Near Global Extinction • Gobiodon species C restricted to Kimbe Bay • Now known from only one coral patch at one location in Kimbe Bay Photo by Glenn Barrall Coupling Climate Change to Biodiversity Sea-surface temperature biochemical stress Loss of corals local and global extinctions Biodiversity Concluding statements The connections amonginthe Grandare Challenges matter greatly! The Grand Challenges Ecology gaining acceptance as the strategic cornerstone on connections which to build majorbe ecological Forging the interdisciplinary should the primary st research in generation the 21 Century challengeinitiatives to the next of ecologists as they take up their roles in research leadership As a list of priorities, the Grand Challenges arguably capture the most important issues facing humanity in the coming Land-use and habitat alteration decades Biogeochemical cycles Ecology and Biogeochemical evolution of Invasive species cycles infectious Climate change diseases The Web of Land-use alteration Grand Challenges Biodiversity Emergent diseases Invasive species Biodiversity and ecosystem function Ecological implications of climate change Population Size and Specialisation in Gobie Fish Munday, P.L. (2004) Global Change Biology 10: 1642-1647 • • Population size correlated with degree of specialisation Specialists face “double jeopardy” of extinction Original Originalabundance abundance 1200 0.88 RR22== 0.88 0.01 P P<<0.01 1000 800 600 400 200 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 Index of specialisation Index of specialisation specialist specialist generalist generalist 2 Concluding statements The Grand Challenges in Ecology are gaining acceptance as the strategic cornerstone on which to build major ecological research initiatives in the 21st Century As a list of priorities, the Grand Challenges arguably capture the most important issues facing humanity in the coming decades In order to effectively direct us (ecologists) to the key strategies toward solving these issues, however, the list of Grand Challenges must be converted to the web of Grand Challenges – forging the interdisciplinary connections should be the primary challenge to the next generation of ecologists as they take up their roles in research leadership physiology and biochemistry biogeochemistry geography systematics and genetics The Grand Challenges medical epidemiology economics and policy meteorology Using genetic markers to trace population introduction and subsequent range expansion Novak, SJ and Mack, RN (2001) Bioscience 51: 114 -122 “Interdisciplinary thinking is rapidly becoming an integral feature of research as a result of four powerful “drivers”: the inherent complexity of nature and society, the desire to explore problems and questions that are not confined to a single discipline, the need to solve societal problems, and the power of new technologies.” National Academy Committee on Interdisciplinary Research Facilitating Interdisciplinary Research, 2004 National Academy Press “In NSF's approach to the environment, we are constantly ‘taking the long view’; stretching that view, across disciplines, across time and across space. For almost two decades, NSF has supported major, cross-disciplinary efforts on the environment, ranging from global change--initially focused on physical science--to biocomplexity in the environment, grounded in biological science but involving all disciplines. “ Dr. Arden Bement, Jr., Director, US National Science Foundation, Address to the National Council for the Environment and Science, February 2005 The Threat of Elevated Atmospheric [CO2] to Coral Reefs H2O + (CO2)aq + CO32- 2HCO3- As (CO2)aq increases, CO32- decreases Reductions in [CaCO3] in seawater have been correlated with reductions in calcification of corals Biosphere 2 Center, Tucson, Arizona Biosphere 2 Center Coral Reef Ecosystem Ecology as an interdisciplinary science Although the challenges are more focused – the approach is broader! “In NSF's approach to the environment, we are constantly ‘taking the long view’; stretching that view, across disciplines, across time and across space. For almost two decades, NSF has supported major, cross-disciplinary efforts on the environment, ranging from global change--initially focused on physical science--to biocomplexity in the environment, grounded in biological science but involving all disciplines. “ Dr. Arden Bement, Jr., Director, U.S. National Science Foundation, Address to the National Council for the Environment and Science, February 2005