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e*J* IMPACT AND RESPONSE SCENARIOS FOR COASTAL FLOODING IN BARBADOS AND GUYANA FORTHE ENHANCEMENT OF NATIONAL DISASTER ORGANIZATIONS FLOOD HAZARD PREPAREDNESS PLANNING OF THE CARIBBEAN DISASTER EMERGENCY RESPONSE AGENCY Prepared by Rawleston Moore January 2003 Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean RPIU Lazaretto Complex Black Rock St. Michael Barbados Tel: (246) 417-4580-3 Fax:(246)417-0461 Email: moorera\vlestonff/).caribsurf.com Technical Report 5C/ACCC-03-01-1 Copyright © 2013 by Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre Published by Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Belmopan, Belize Digital Edition (December 2013) No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever. It may be reproduced in whole or in part and in any form for educational or nonprofit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder, provided acknowledgement of the source is made. The Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC) would appreciate a copy of any publication that uses this report as a source. Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre, Ring Road, P.O. Box 563, Belmopan, Belize Visit our website at http://www.caribbeanclimate.bz ISBN-978-976-8236-95-1 (pdf) 1.0 Introduction As a component of the Enhancing Disaster Preparedness in the Caribbean, which ** being funded by the Disaster Preparedness Programme of the European Commission (ECHO) the Caribbean Disaster Emergency Response Agency (CDERA) has retained the services of the CARICOM Adapting to Climate Change in the Caribbean project to develop/flood assessment methodology for coastal flooding which is to be shared with the National Disaster Organizations. Through the Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change project a methodology for performing vulnerability assessments for possible impacts to climate change has been established. The methodology utilises a screening assessment phase // which is a simple)^ rapid assessment of the implications of changes in sea level, and // an initial identification of future data requirements and needs. The second and third Y^h phases of the methodology involve^fe firstly,the selection of scenarios with regards to climate change and/the detailed impact analysis based on the outputs of the screening assessment. The final phase involves a comprehensive analysis of potential adaptation options. Further details on the methodology for coastal vulnerability assessment can be found in the Flood Assessment Methodology for Coastal Flooding which was prepared for the Enhancement of National Disaster Organization Flood Hazard Preparedness Planning Project. n- - /iMLp *z-t>^—€_- Coastal flooding has always been of aritical importance in the countries of the Caribbean, given that the majority of cntical infrastructure such as hospitals, hotels, schools and power generating facilities/ In addition in many case the coastal zone and regions are often very heavily populated. The purpose of this document is to demonstrate the application of the coastal vulnerability risk assessment methodology, and highlight the outputs which have arisen as a consequence of application of the methodology. The methodology was applied in pilot sites in the two countries Barbados and Guyana, to obtain an initial understanding of the probable impacts of coastal flooding due to sea level rise, and get some insight into the possible scenarios which could occur with coastal flooding. 2.0 Impacts and Scenarios for Barbados 2.1 Screening Assessment for Barbados The screening assessment for Barbados highlighted erosion and inundation as key impact concerns as a result of sea level rise, with the tourism sector. Table 1 below shows the screening assessment matrix for Barbados. From the screening assessment process, the following criteria were utilized to aid in pilot site selection: 1. Topography (gradient & elevation) 2. Population Density (population at risk & population affected) 3. Proximity to Critical Infrastructure (roads, hospitals, power plants, water supply, ports etc) 4. Historic, Scientific and Technical Data Availability 5. Coastal Protection Costs 6. Proximity to Critical Ecosystems/Habitats X\0*::'-ll 7. Proximity to Urban Settlement Nodes 8. Relevance/Importance to Physical Development Planning Process/Land Use Designation 9. Existing Human Resource/Institutional Capacity 10. Erosion/Accretion Rates 11. Flood Potential (runoff & marine inundation) 12. Crustal Emergence/Subsidence Geomorphologic Characteristics 13. Economic Data 14. Availability Spatial Area of Coverage 15. Near shore Bathymetry 16. Wave Climate/Oceanographic Conditions 17. Socio-cultural/ArchaeoIogical Significance Table 1 Screening Assessment Matrix for Barbados>. (Chakalall et al 1998) Socio-economic Impacts Biophysical Impact Tourism Human Settlement Agriculture Water Fisheries Supply Financial Services Health Erosion 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 Inundation 1 1 3 3 2 2 1 Salinization 1 1 2 1 3 2 1 1 = Major Impact; 2 = Significant Impact; 3 = Minor Impact with 1>2>3 Assessing and applying the cj2feN£ above criteria in a preliminary assessment, the following locations were identified for Barbados for further study for vulnerability assessment: 1 The South Coast- Hastings, Rockley, and Worthing-Dover-Maxwell area 2 The West Coast- Speightstown, Holetown, Spring Garden 3 The East Coast- Belleplaine, and Cattlewash. For the purpose of this report the analysis will focus on the areas of Speightstown and will only discuss issues pertaining to sea level rise and coastal flooding 2.2 CScenario Selection ^t-ry' W fc*. ^o-Ke*. The scenarios utilised for the vulnerability assessment for Barbados were 0.2m sea level rise (sir) by 2020, 0.5m sir by 2050 and lm sir by 2100. These scenarios which were utilised were consistent with the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1995) 2.3 4 Human Impact Analysis JV&k ^ ^~jJ~^ For Speightstown erosion and flooding analysis <5ccurjrjed utilizing the Bruun Rule. Due to a lack of data the calculations did make provision for tectonic uplift, and because of a lackHoeach profile data only one profile was used for the analysis. Table 2 below shows/the potential land loss at the various locations utilizing Bruun Rule analysis (see Rowe 2001, Moore 2002). Table 2 Potential Land Loss Scenarios for Speightstown Land Loss (m) Land Loss (m) Location 0.2m Speightstown Sea Level 0.5m Rise Rise 1.13 2.70 Sea Land Loss (m) Level lm Sea Level Rise 6.50 The preliminary results clearly show that there will be significant negative impactp%, in terms of land loss at the pilot site of Speightstown. Further analysis was performed at these sites based on the outputs of the 1994 Delcan Water levels report which gave estimations for coastal flooding during a hurricane event, utilising an average return period of 100 year. Areas of flooding were re-examined with the addition of the sea level rise scenarios. Analysis showed that flooding could occur up to 300m inland in the area of Speightstown. Figure 1 below given an indication of the flooding area and zones in Speightstown with the relative scenarios of sea level rise ♦ Figure 1Speightstown + KEY # Alnond Beach Villas? Fish Market SPEIGHTSTOWN CPACC C6 - CBMJNL VUUCBOiajTY ANS RISK Almond Beach Village to Speightstown btta"l"°,m,MM" "'""" • ^~u^.(-< 2.31 Speightstown The population of the area within the impacted flood zone is 2027 according to the 1990 census. The Speightstown Fish market provides a focal point for important socio economic activities; however within the city area residential activity is one of the dominant land uses. Table 2 below shows the land use in the potential flood zone in Speightstown and current property value (see Atherley 2001, Moore 2002). Figure 2 shows the various land uses in Speightstown Table 2 Land Use in Speightstown Total m2 Land Use Class Church 9638 Commercial 55,236 Derelict 1433 Fishing Open Space -Recreational 1200 Vacant Other 1477 School Tourism 3,635,000 36,415,200 168,800 725,000 181,000 11,502,600 41,713,400 3,860,600 91,310,400 6,448,100 600,000 7060 71,068 117,804 18,514 123,040 53,979 Public Residential Value BDS$ 196,560,900 Total The current property value (in 2000) in Speightstown area averages $427 per m2. Estimations utilising a very conservative compound interest rate of 2.5% per year show the property values in the Speightstown flood zone area rising from $196 million in 2000, to $322million, in 2020, $675 million in 2050 and $2.3 billion in 2100. (see table 3 below). Table 3 Potential Changes in Property Values 2000-2100 (adapted from Atherley2001) Speightstown Area (acres) Length of shoreline Site value Property value 2000 2020 2050 2100 (2.5% (2.5% (2.5% compounded) compounded) compounded) 114.26 114.26 114.26 114.26 2100m 2100m 2100m 2100m 89,290,300 $ 146,312,554 $ 306,900,469 $ 1,054,850,277 196,560,900 $ 322,087,922 $ 675,601,183 $ 2,322,114,718 One form of estimation of direct economic contribution to Government relates to the payment of land taxes. Typically for commercial properties, this rate is 0.8% of the assessed improved value or site value (whichever is higher), and 0.2% for residential property. Based on the above, it is estimated that the property owners in the zone of potential impact are due to pay land tax of around $1.5 million into the Treasury annually. Commercial and tourism properties are due to contribute $1 million in land taxes. Currently, given the relatively low amount of space dedicated to commercial activity, the direct contribution of these activities may be regarded as small. With respect to sales generation, the Speightstown Development Plan used the Caribbean Development Bank study on the economic impact of tourism which suggested that in Barbados, on average, property taxes are 1% of the sales volume for a typical retail store. Figure 2 Land Uses in Speightstown While this ratio will in practice fluctuate, the results suggest that in Speightstown, commercial properties (on the low-end) in the zone of potential impact would generate at least $28 million in sales. When added to the sales volume generated annually by the Hotel at Almond Beach (2000 sales volume was $30 million), it may be concluded that the commercial and tourism properties within the zone of impact have a potential to earn at least $58 million in sales annually. As land use activity distribution changes into more commercial and tourism activities, the importance of Speightstown to the overall economic and social welfare of Barbados will also change. Thus along with over 2000 people at risk, there is the possibility of approximately $60,million in revenue being at risk due to sea level rise. Critical infrastructure at risk includes the Speightstown Fisheries Market Area, the Alexandra School and various private residences which are in the area. 3.0 Adaptation Options In Barbados only 10 out of the 37 existing statutes dealing with environmental, land use and building issues have been enacted after 1992. Of these post-1992 legislation 6 are environmental in scope, and the remaining 4 address land use matters. At the same time, the majority of the pre-1992 environmental, land use and building laws were enacted in the early 1970s. Considering 1992 as the watershed for the creation of modern environmental laws therefore, then^the majority of existing environmental laws in Barbados are not modern. Climate change will result in coastal erosion, flooding and salinization. In order to deal with these issues effectively there may be a need to amend much of the legislation in the following way: a) The strengthening of the content of legislation and the promotion of effective enforcement measures. The Prevention of Floods Act is one example of legislation in need of content strengthening. The Act is more focused on mitigation than on prevention. There is a need for stronger preventative measures and the express requirement for the preparation of flood management plans as well as provision for flood plain mapping. b) Enforcement measures in several pieces of legislation are inadequate. For example, the penalties for committing an offence under the Trees (Preservation) Act are a fine of $1000 or imprisonment for a term of 6 months or both. The penalties contained in some pre-1972 legislation must be amended to provide a realistic deterrent in modern day society. c) Provision for the selective relocation of critical services. The legislation governing the issues of flooding and coastal erosion both lack provisions to facilitate the selective relocation of critical services. This omission could be addressed by an amendment to the individual pieces of legislation or such a provision may be housed in a Disaster Management Act. While some of the necessary changes to the environmental legislation may be accommodated by amending the current legislation, in other instances new legislation is necessary. It may be necessary for example to have a specific Climate Change Act to deal specifically with climate change issues. Climate Change issues could also be incorporated in a disaster management act or through a comprehensive Environmental Management Act. The building code in Barbados may also need to be strengthened and be incorporated into the legislative framework (Oderson 2001) *" u^JDl^hile it is clear there may be a need for a more comprehensive study of the U> ^3et/yp:M-:S,i0physical impacts of sea level rise at Speightstown. Already during the Coastal ^A^^^C Conservation Pre Investment Programme (1991-95) a beach nourishment project has occurred at a cost of BDS$ 210,600 over a seven week period. Further studies will be needed to determine whether further beach nourishment is required, or whether other beach protection options such as/gryones, or submerged breakwaters are required. Further public awareness rrtay'be in needed in the area of Speightstown. Surveys in the area of Speightstown highlighted the need for further public education. In addition the majority of businesses in the area felt that government should be the main responsible agency for response to sea level rise. There is a strong call for collaboration, information and education such that businesses and residents can play useful roles to deal with the threat of sea level rise. 4.0 Impacts and Scenarios for Guyana 4.1 Screening Assessment for Guyana The screening assessment of Guyana highlighted agriculture and human settlement as the key concerns. Agriculture is critical as it is the dominant economic activity on the coast, while 90% of the population, administrative, transportation and communication facilities are concentrated on the narrow coastal strip. Inundation and erosion are also of key concern given that many areas in Guyana are below sea level. The screening assessment of Guyana is below in table 4. The following criteria was also used to aid in the selection of pilot sites for study in Guyana: 1. Economic Base 2. Economic Loss 3. Population Density 4. Housing 5. Administration Facilities 6. Sea Defenses 7. Drainage System 8. Data Availability 9. Utility Services Data availability was also considered as access to data in Guyana is difficult either because it is not readily accessible, sorted, catalogued and in some cases not adequately classified for safe keeping. Further, much valuable original data has apparently been lost or severely damaged. Table 4 Screening Assessment of Guyana (Diaram et al 1999) BIOPHYSICAL IMPACTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE SOCIO-ECONOMIC Sectors AGRICULTURE TOURISM WATER FISHERIES RESOURCES HUMAN SETTLEMENTS INUNDATION Major impact. Major impact. Loss Medium impact. Inundation will of national Inundation will cause destruction devastate Major impact. 90 % of housing and population is landmarks, agriculture, a concentrated in this administration lead to infiltration of saline water into dominant region, and hence will be severely affected by permanent and more frequent buildings, transportation and pipelines and of landing sites and cooperative buildings. Nursery areas communication aquifers. This is an important source of drinking water and Inundation will economic activity on the coast. inundation events. lines. Inundation will also result in losses contamination of water for located in mangrove swamps will be damaged and fishing grounds will be of beaches. agriculture. Major impact. Medium impact Materials used for Medium impact. Impact on coastal Salinization is Salinization is building houses ecosystems. likely to occur further upstream of likely to affect rivers. aquaculture Minor impact since pipelines are Minor impact. ecosystems Beach loss. covered about 1m shifted. SALLNIZATION Major impact since most plants would be unable to survive under such unfavorable soil conditions. EROSION Major impact. Medium impact. will rot at an accelerated rate Medium impact. Foundation upon which houses are built can become weak due to rise in Impact on coastal freshwater below ground level. water levels. Three pilot sites were selected for consideration, Leguan, Georgetown and Onverwagt. A description of the pilot sites occurs below: (i) Leguan - This is the largest island found in the Essequibo River. It is a predominantly rural island with the main form of economic activity being small-scale paddy cultivation. The average size of a paddy field on this island is five (5) acres. Around the island, mangrove vegetation, mainly Rhizophora mangle and the associated flora are the dominant vegetation types. Associated with the coast on the western side of the island are small patches of beaches, thus making for the somewhat limited existence of a beach ecosystem. (ii) Georgetown - Georgetown is the capital of Guyana and has a population of approximately 200, 000. It is situated on the right bank of the Demerara River. Most historical buildings reflecting the unique 18th and 19th century architecture are found in this city. Further, the major administrative facilities, economic activities, hotels and shopping centres are located here. The seawall protects the coastal area in Georgetown. There has not been much vegetation growth along this area. In front of this structure is a beach system with typical beach vegetation, especially mangroves. (iii) Onverwagt - Like Leguan, Onverwagt is a predominantly paddy cultivating rural community, where one of the country's best known, and potentially one of its largest drainage and irrigation scheme, is located, upon completion it is expected to service in excess of 45,000acres of mainly farmlands stretching from the Mahaica River in to the Berbice River For the purpose of this analysis the focus will be on Georgetown 4.2 Scenario Selection The scenarios utilised for the vulnerability assessment for Barbados were 0.2m sea level rise (sir) by 2020, 0.5m sir by 2050 and 0.9m sir by 2100. These scenarios which were utilised were consistent with the second assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 1995) 4.3 Impact Analysis The Bruun rule has been used to estimate beach retreat for specified locations in Guyana. Based on data extracted from the beach profiles for Georgetown the analyses show that shoreline retreat will be as follows in table 5 Table 5 Shoreline Retreat for Georgetown Guyana Range of Shoreline Retreat (m.) Sea Level Rise (in.) 0.2 10-30 0.5 50-80 0.9 90-150 As a result of the flat nature of the Guyana Coast, the shoreline retreat computed above may not necessarily be from the present shoreline, but can be further inland, depending on the degree of inundation. In those locations where concrete sea defense structures presently exist, undermining of the foundation of these structures will be the major effect. This will result in considerable weakening and eventual collapse of the structures. For those areas protected by mangroves, earth embankments and sand banks, damages may be even greater in terms of destruction of mangroves and vegetation and consequent erosion (Moore 2001) Coastal flooding as a result of sea level rise for Guyana under the scenarios considered will affect the entire fabric of Guyanese society - population, agriculture, industry and infrastructure. Flooding will cause, the disruption of population centres and the movement of people will be inevitable, as increasing occurrences of inundation will result in destabilization of infra-structural works, including buildings, roads, bridges, dams. With the high tide level already above land level, further rises in sea levels will only aggravate an already dire situation. Greater demands will be made on the drainage systems, especially for the capital city, Georgetown. These systems are already under stress and any further demands on them may lead to their complete failure (Moore 2001) Figure 3 below highlights the pilot areas for the Guyana coastal vulnerability assessment and the area to be affected by a one metre ride in sea level 10 +o -||* Figure 3 Impact areas in Guyana with a one metre sea level rise Flooding Analysis Reasons for Flooding CPACC Pilot Sites Survey Details: Area: No person* interviewed Ov/vfwagt 32 Georgetown 254 Leguan 110 GUYANA 0 5 1 i i i 10 i I i 20 Kawnewn I Qwtvagt • Gcagotvn A : Ugun I'I s P a 1^ Disclaimer Area* likely to be affected by 1m sea level rise was derived from USGS GTOPO30 dalaset iie. DEM) with a resolution ol 1 km horizontally and 1 m vertically. CPACC Pilot Srtos data are accurate at a scale of 1 50.000, all other datasets are accurate at a scale ofi. 1.000.000 with the exception ol the DEM mentioned above Over ninety percent (90%) of land in Georgetown is used for residential purposes, while the rest is used for institutional/administrative, social and commercial purposes, state owned enterprises, private businesses and security entities. Georgetown has a population of approximately 200,000. The median monthly household income was $25,500 (US $ 141.67). A socioeconomic survey (conducted between February March 2000), revealed that ninety-seven percent (97%) of the respondents in the city had attained at least primary education and 54 percent secondary education. This high educational attainment may be correlated with the greater prevalence of institutions of higher learning in and around Georgetown. It would appear therefore that sea level rise is likely to affect entire households, more so the working age. If this becomes a reality, it may provide the impetus for development projects to be undertaken further inland and or may result in greater migrants out of Guyana (Moore 2001). In Central Georgetown, a Survey revealed that approximately 40 percent of respondents were in a landlord/tenant arrangement, while thirty-nine percent (39%) were living in their own property. Within the city, the cost of a two bedroom house can range from G$3m (US$16,666) to G$8m (US44, 444). These high acquisition costs make owning a property very difficult. Further, within the city, forty-seven percent (47%) of the respondents valued their properties at between G$2-5m (US$11,111-27, 777); while fifteen percent (15%) valued between G$6-10m (US$33,333-55,555), that gives an estimated cost of between G$ 300m-600m (US$1.67-3.34m) of properties likely to be affected by sea level rise (Moore 2001) Z-Add*DW+AMT4Dr*rI-||*%^ (TA<-U4 (TA<-U4®t-||*®4-||*ii^A^®#4*B*M4^^«#fi* 4.4 Adaptation Options For Guyana given the large size of the country adaptation options to sea level rise should comprise a mixture of protection of the coastline and retreat where appropriate. From the vulnerability assessment of Guyana it is clear that there is still considerable more work which needs to be done in terms of collection and analysis of data. Considerable public awareness work needs to be done so that communities and businesses understand effectively the implications of global climate change and sea level rise. Bynoe (2000) noted that the governmental capacity to deal with climate related issues needs to be strengthened. Surveys have indicated that there was limited awareness by local communities of their vulnerability to the effects of global warming For Guyana the issue of adaptation should be linked to the sustainable development process. Part of the overall adaptation strategy should involve incorporating sea level rise and climate change into the Integrated Coastal Zone Management Plan of Guyana. The environmental impact assessment process should also consider combining issues of sea level rise and adaptation planning as part of the overall impact assessment process. The building codes could also be adapted for the anticipated changes of climate change and sea level rise. It is recommended however that for adaptation purposes Guyana utilise a short term, medium term and long term strategy to cope with sea level rise. Policy options such as effective actions through coastal zone management and sustainable development policies should be pursued. In the medium term, adaptation to sea level rise in the coastal zone of Guyana may involve the further fortifying of sea defences and the introduction of legislation relating to setback limits so as to reduce the vulnerability of the peoples and structures. In the long term however, Guyana may have to choose between further fortifications of sea defences or a more drastic population policy whereby peoples and infrastructures will be moved inland, where even at 40 km the land is at 22.6 m above mean sea level. Guyana's population is relatively small and land space in the hinterland is abundant, although soils are mainly sandy. Therefore, land use planning will prove very crucial, especially since there will be the need to identify any possible fertile lands further inland (Moore 2001). 5.0 Future Vulnerability Work While the initial impacts documented for the pilot areas outlined in this report give an indication of the probable impacts of sea level rise there still remains considerable work to be done, given the short time frame in which these assessments were conducted. In general there is a need for more comprehensive data analysis and capacity building as it relates to vulnerability assessment. In the Caribbean there is often a general lack of comprehensive oceanographic data (tidal, waves and currents) which will limit the effectiveness of future vulnerability analysis. This constraint must be addressed in the future and comprehensive data collection must be part of all future vulnerability analysis in the region. 12 There is a need in the region to improve the number of trained professionals who can be involved in vulnerability assessments. In the Caribbean there is a lack of coastal engineers and coastal planners which can be involved in vulnerability assessments. Another consideration for countries in the region is to begin the construction of inventory of coastal structures to aid in vulnerability analysis and overall coastal hazard analysis. This is a simple activity which can provide considerable information in detailing what resources would be at risk with coastal flooding and sea level rise. Future vulnerability assessments in the region should thus aim to obtain a comprehensive data base so that effective analysis can occur on the macro and micro level to provide suitable adaptation options for implementation. 13 References Atherley, K (2001); Socio-Economic Assessment of Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise in Barbados-Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Bynoe, Paulette and Bynoe, Mark. 1999. 'Final Report on a Socio- Economic Assessment of the Vulnerability of Guyana's Coast to Sea Level Rise' Report prepared for CPACC Chakalall Y, Rowe A., Moore R, (1999); Screening Assessments of the Biophysical and Socioeconomic Impacts of Sea Level Rise on the Island ofBarbados. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Diaram (ed) (1999) Screening Assessments ofthe Biophysicaland Socioeconomic Impacts ofSea Level Rise on Guyana Caribbean Planning for Adaptationto Climate Change Delcan (1994); Water LevelsReportfor Barbados- Feasibility Study on Coastal Conservation for Barbados IPCC (1995) Second Assessment Report- Climate Change 1995 (see www.ipcc.clf) Moore (ed) (2002) , Barbados's Coastal Vulnerability and Risk Assessment, Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Moore (ed) (2002), Guyana's Initial Coastal Vulnerability RiskAssessmentCaribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Oderson (2000) AnAssessment of the Adequacy ofthe Legal Framework to Cope with the Potential Effects of Sea Level Rise in Barbados. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change Rowe A (2001); Report on the Potential Impacts ofSea Level Rise onthe Coastline of Barbados. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Climate Change 14