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Overall I think this chapter is very well put together and covers the relevant issues thoroughly. From a social science perspective it
clearly highlights what we don't know and where future research efforts should go. (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
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The SOD of Chapter 25 is a major improvement over the FOD - overall this chapter is in good shape for a Second Order Draft. (Wratt,
David, NIWA, New Zealand)
This chapter is well written and structured. Great job! The Table of Contents shows that sections 25.5 to 25.8 have different subheadings, i.e. some include observed impacts and some don't. It would be good to have a consistent structure, with at least a brief subsection on observed impacts in each. (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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There are many long and complex sentences, some of which are also ambiguous. Others become ambiguous due to the difficulty of
reading them. Suggest simplifying them, including breaking them into two or more sentences.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
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We congratulate the TSU and Chapter 25 authors on the production of the Second Order Draft for AR5 and thank you for all the hard
work. (NEW ZEALAND)
Overall this chapter reads well and contains useful and well balanced information (NEW ZEALAND)
A general comment is that some clear statements on what we know and what we dont know is missing from this chapter for some of
the variables.For example, it lacks information on best estimates of acidification in Australasian waters (NZ) and could reference
required monitoring identified by Statistics New Zealand's Environmental Domain Plan (NEW ZEALAND)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
This is a clear and well-written chapter with arguments and assessments easy to follow and well illustrated. (Lough, Janice, Australian
Institute of Marine Science)
Define Australian State abbreviations at first use (e.g. NSW on page 11, line 3 and table 25-4). (AUSTRALIA)
There seems to be no section on impacts/adaptation for transport infrastructure (heatwaves on rail line buckling & road surfaces) see
as a starting point http://www.csiro.au/science/adapt-heatwave-rail and http://www.nccarf.edu.au/conference2010/wpcontent/uploads/Minh-Nguyen.pdf (AUSTRALIA)
While the description of the Australian water policy situation is reasonable in Chapter 25, throughout the document poor English
expression and grammatical errors compromise readability and obscure meaning across significant portions of the text (see examples
provided for Chapter 3 below). Further editorial work is required to improve the quality of expression so that a comprehensive review
can be undertaken. \nIn the manuscript’s present form it is difficult to evaluate findings and assess the associated evidence base. For
example, in Chapter 3, the generalisations made about the relative magnitude of ecological impacts of climate change versus
abstraction/dams (page 3; lines 27-29) are extremely broad, are not convincingly supported by quantitative evidence and do not
necessarily align with the Australian context. (AUSTRALIA)
We’d like to see more explicit discussion of the potential of scientific research to aid in developing mitigation and adaptation strategies particularly in relation to areas in which projections cannot yet be made with at least medium confidence, such as impacts on coastal
infrastructure and low-lying ecosystems if sea level rise exceeds 1m; changes to tropical cyclone and severe storm occurrence in
Australasia; impact on agricultural economic performance of drought in north and east of NZ. Specific sections where research is
particularly warranted are 25.10.3 Challenges to Adaptation in Managing Key Risks, and Limits to Adaptation, and 25.11 Filling
Knowledge Gaps to Improve Management of Climate Risks. (NEW ZEALAND)
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There doesn’t appear to be sufficient emphasis on the potential economic impacts for NZ, with a largely biologically-based economy, of
changes in rainfall, soil conditions, pest habitat/conditions for growth/altered distribution (25.6.1.2), etc. (NEW ZEALAND)
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Support the decision to structure the chapter with the sections 25.3 and 25.4 ahead of sections 25.5-25.8. Reading these sections first
helps provide context to sections 25.5-25.8. (NEW ZEALAND)
Support the structure i.e. leading with adaptation (NEW ZEALAND)
A number of comments to this chapter seek additional information. In many cases, this is asking the authors to move from simple
review of the literature to an assessment of the state of our understanding. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
In general, it may be worthwhile to point out or comment upon major differences from and advances since AR4. What are the key
differences in thinking/findings that should be elaborated upon? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
It's understandable for the authors to cite monetary figures in their national currency, but this makes comparisons of financial impacts
across countries and regions difficult, both within this chapter, and throughout the report. The currency of USD$ was used in other
chapters. Recommend using the same here. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The document would benefit from greater consistency in design of tables and figures. There are many instances where use of colors,
symbols and layout vary and seem ill-designed for the purpose of this document. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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While there is some description and discussion of the likely impacts on biodiversity and ecosystems, the chapter has only limited
discussion of the impacts on essential ecosystem services. This is particularly pertinent to Australia and NZ which have very significant
direct dependence on numerous ecosystem services. There is some discussion of impacts on fisheries and impacts on tourism in the
Great Barrier Reef region. However, impacts on flood control capacity of wetlands and forested areas, coastal erosion and flooding
control by coastal wetlands and mangroves, non-pelagic fisheries, coastal water quality maintenance by coastal ecosystems, the
tourism value of other areas (e.g. SW Australia) and other services are not described. While the Australian/NZ specific literature may be
limited on the impacts on these ecosystems, literature on the likely impacts of climate change on these system types is available and
can indicate likely impacts in the region. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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1) Overall -- The chapter team has developed a robust, compelling, superbly rich second-order draft. The emphasis throughout on
adaptation, not just impacts, is very effective, especially the distinctions made between incremental and transformational adaptation.
(Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
Government and Expert Review
There were numerous references to climate models, and discussions on changing climate and its effects on ecosytems, yet there was no
discussion on ecosytem modeling tools. Australia has advanced ecosystem modeling capabilities that have been applied globally, e.g.
Atlantis (CSIRO) was rated the best in the world by the FAO. These tools may also be worth noting in this chapter. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
While there is some consideration of the impacts of climate change vis a vis relationships with other regions, more attention could be
paid to:\n-impacts on the fishing sector, particularly due to expected impacts on Antarctic fishing\n-role of Australia and NZ in the
Pacific Islands, including fishing and mining\n-possible impact of climate refugees from Pacific Islands and parts of Asia. There is some
mention of this, but perhaps more is merited. \n-the authors mention a high growth rate for both countries, but don't mention whether
climate change may affect migration policy.\nIn contrast to some other chapters, this one tends to keep the discussion at a rather
abstract level. More data and more concrete examples would balance this tendency. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Government and Expert Review
IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
2) Coordination across Working Group II -- In developing the final draft of the chapter, the author team should continue to ensure
coordinated assessment, both in the chapter text and at the level of key findings. Cross-references to other chapters should continue to
be made--to specific sections of other chapters--with overlaps reduced and assessment harmonized wherever possible. (Mach,
Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
3) Harmonization with the Working Group I contribution to the AR5 -- The chapter team should ensure that all cross-references to the
Working Group I contribution are updated based on the final drafts of the volume. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
4) Report release -- The chapter team should be aware that the final drafts of the chapters will be posted publicly at the time of the
SPM approval, before final copyediting has occurred. Thus, the chapter team is encouraged to continue its careful attention to refined
syntax and perfected referencing. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
5) Parenthetical presentation of calibrated uncertainty language -- Wherever possible, the chapter team should consider presenting
calibrated uncertainty language within parentheses at the end of sentences to maximize the clarity and directness of statements. That
is, sentences beginning with "there is high confidence" should, preferably, be edited so that, instead, "(high confidence)" is presented at
the end of the sentence. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
6) Characterization of future risks -- The chapter team's approach to characterizing key regional risks within the chapter's typology and
with clear indication of the potential for and limits to risk reduction through adaptation is a fantastic means of communicating core
considerations for the region. Where possible, the chapter team may wish to consider the framing of differing eras--for the next few
decades versus the 2nd half of the 21st century. Within 25.10, the chapter team could consider brief summary of its assessment with
respect to these eras of climate responsibility and climate options, potentially also using the graphical summary of sectoral risks, which
is being updated prior to the 4th lead author meeting. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
7) Informing the summary products -- The findings of chapter 25 have provided important framing for understanding findings emerging
more broadly across the report. The chapter team is encouraged to continue its careful attention to core themes: the degree to which
extreme events have demonstrated adaptation deficits and vulnerabilities to date and may relate to future risks, the nature of
adaptation experience to date, the synergies and trade-offs among mitigation, adaptation, and sustainable development within and
across regions, and limitations in terms of understanding the human and socio-economic dimensions of future vulnerability. (Mach,
Katharine IPCC WGII TSU)
GENERAL COMMENTS: I congratulate the author team for all their work on a very interesting and informative SOD. Please see my
detailed comments for a small number of suggestions related to ES findings and traceable accounts and specific clarifications.
(Mastrandrea, Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
SUMMARY PRODUCTS: In preparing the final draft of your chapter and particularly your executive summary, please consider the ways in
which your chapter material has been incorporated into the draft SPM and TS. For Chapter 25, this includes presentation of observed
impacts and vulnerabilities in section A.i, adaptation experience in section A.ii, iterative management of risk in section B.i, sectoral and
regional risks in section C.i, and interactions between adaptation and mitigation in section D.ii, as well as related figures and tables. Are
there opportunities for presenting chapter findings and material in a way that further supports broad themes highlighted in the
summary products and that facilitates additional cross-chapter synthesis in specific findings or figures/tables? Do the existing summary
product drafts suggest additional coordination that should occur between Chapter 25 and other chapters at LAM4? (Mastrandrea,
Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
Do we have a region called "Australasia"? Or is it " Australia"? Further, the tile"Australasia" is hanging. Let the title capture the sprit of
the underlying text in the entire document. In otherwords, the title always prepares the reader what he expects in the text of the
document (KENYA)
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Government and Expert Review
IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
Needs to discuss impacts of projected increased incidence of extreme weather events on Australasia, in particular Australia..
(AUSTRALIA)
Good. Emphasise "Observations show that the regional climate is changing" (NEW ZEALAND)
Re: projected annual rainfall changes. Different confidence levels between ES and body of Chapter.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Executive Summary states TCs will increase in intensity but decrease in numbers, with low confidence. Chapter states numbers will stay
similar or decrease, and that increases and decreases are projected for NZ, with low confidence.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
The fire weather studies cited are only for southeast Australia, not most of southern Australia\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Projected changes to fire weather in the northeast of Australia are cited in the Chapter, but not the ES. Also, the NZ results are low
confidence in the Chapter, medium confidence in the ES\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Temperatures in New Zealand have remained almost constant since records began; see Gray V R 2011 The Seven Station Series. Energy
and Environment 22 (40) 428-439’. Australia is similar. The projections are all wrong (Gray, Vincent, Climate Consultant)
flood risk is not a meteorological hazard in the way the others are. Suggest "flood likelihood" (NEW ZEALAND)
Will increasing extreme rainfall occur in regions where annual average rainfall is expected to decrease? What about snow? (Hennessy,
Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Worth noting here that rainfall (and runoff) has already decreased significantly over the past few decades in southwestern Australia (as
noted on p6) (Bunn, Stuart, Griffith University)
The passage suggests that there is high confidence in drying through the south of Australia and north-east New Zealand, which does not
agree with the following material on Pg. 6, Lines 30-36. It is suggested that the authors consider more careful wording to avoid this
confusion. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-1 states that tropical cyclones are projected to stay similar in number or decrease. (Mastrandrea, Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
Please state what baseline the 2 degree global warming is based on. (AUSTRALIA)
For the non-expert, please explain the distinction between "transformative adaptation" and regular adaptation. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
In what sense are "demands" meant here? Do you mean "needs" or "public calls" for transformative adaptation, or something else?
(Mastrandrea, Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
Can this be updated to include the NZ drought in 2012-2013? (NEW ZEALAND)
Mental health problems have also been described in the NZ 2012-2013 drought (NEW ZEALAND)
include health. (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
The word "projected" should be followed by the appropriate time frame. (NEW ZEALAND)
OK but nothing specific on ocean pH (NEW ZEALAND)
Text states freshwater reduced in rivers in the eastern and northern parts of NZ, but more specifically this should read "north of the
south island, and east and north of the north island"\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Text states endemic species are a risk of extinction but we find no reference to this, only that native species face this risk.\n\n
(NETHERLANDS)
Section 25.7.1 focuses on forestry, and its relevance to this finding is not immediately clear. (Mastrandrea, Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
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Government and Expert Review
IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
ES states spring pasture growth would increase and be beneficial if it can be utilised. The Chapter states "projected increases in early
spring pasture growth posed management problems in maintaining pasture quality, yet, if these were met, animal production could be
maintained or increased"\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
This statement is very definitive, and instead should have a confidence statement. (AUSTRALIA)
I am not sure that adaptation and adaptation planning is happening in the marine environment in NZ. The absence of this is a key point.
(NEW ZEALAND)
Comment relates to terminology used to describe adaptation planning in Australia; "albiet mostly conceptual rather than
implementation level (high agreement, robust evidence)" and "implementation of specific policies remains piecemeal, subject to
political changes, and open to legal challenges". These statements are generalist in nature and provide little evidence in their
supporting references. Consideration should be given to the relative progress of adaptation planning in Australia and seek only to
highlight areas for improvement (i.e along the lines of "adaptation planning is becoming embedded in planning processes, with
increased implementation yet to be widely applied" and "many areas of adaptation planning, such as sea level rise and water security
are incorporating climate change risk into their management regimes, however, further progress could be acheived at consistency
across jurisdictional level policy.") (AUSTRALIA)
Can "high agreement, robust evidence" be translated into a confidence rating? (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation)
It is not clear whether this statement refers to planning for sea level rise in Australia, or excluing Australia. Suggest re-wording.
(AUSTRALIA)
I was confused by the vocabulary used in terms of: ‘impacts’, ‘adaptation’ and ‘vulnerability’ in Chapter 25 as a whole. The distinction
is very important for policymakers to immediately understand when they pick up the document. I suggest including a reference to the
definitions at the start of the SPM. (NEW ZEALAND)
Support these summary statements. (NEW ZEALAND)
The distinction between differing values and beliefs related to risk and differing attitudes towards risk could be clarified slightly better
here. (Mastrandrea, Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
Suggestion: reference table 25-2 because it is highly relevant to this claim\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Suggest that the authors include mention of the social challenges faced by indigenous groups in this header sentence. This is mentioned
in the following text, but social disadvantages and racism present more challenges to indigenous groups than does their reliance (if
substantiated) on natural resources. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Please consider improving this paragraph with reference to the traditional knowledge of the indigeonous people of environmental
processes and hazards (reference to Maori knowledge- p30 line20- reference to Australian indigenous not found).\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Suggestion: make a reference to economic opportunities for indigenous people in relation to forestry as it is not mentioned in either
section.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Please check the interpretation of the text: the original text says evidence is limited about the ability of reefs to respond to CC, but the
claim is that a reef's ability to respond is limited. Is the original text wrong? Chapter states robust evidence.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
mention projected decrease in snow here (very high confidence) (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation)
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This section has attempted to distinguish difference levels of threat and ability to treat them. It does however run the risk that the
impacts from line 44 will be given lesser priority by policy makers reading this section. Of particular concern is the way the sea level
section has been written. It is tagged to a 1 metre of SLR. However it is expected in low lying coastal settlements that infrastructure like
stormwater, water reticulation and waste water could be affected with around 0.5m SLR and this is noted in the main text on page 36
L15 with reference to Baynes 2012. Similar evidence can be found in Hart, G., (2011) Vulnerability and adaptation to sea-level rise in
Auckland, New Zealand. New Zealand Climate Change Research Institute, Victoria University of Wellington, Wellington, New Zealand, p.
67. The problem with the 1 metre qualifier is that it will be perceived as a distant threat which could stop decision-makers considering
the impacts of lower levels of sea level rise. I suggest that an additional risk be added to the section starting at L 24 on page 4 that uses
similar wording to the first bullet point about flooding. RElated to this issue is the impact of coastal storms on elevated sea level which
could also be acknowledged so teh ful nature of sea level ris is understood by the reader. Many people think that SLR is a slow onset
impact but the damage is likely to occur first with groundwater rising refer Bjerklie, D.M., Mullaney, J.R., Stone, J.R., Skinner, B.J.,
Ramlow, M.A., (2012) Preliminary Investigation of the Effects of Sea-Level Rise on Groundwater Levels in New Haven, Connecticut. U.S.
Geological Survey, p. 46. AND McGranahan, G., Balk, D., Anderson, B. (2007) The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and
human settlements in low elevation coastal zones. Environment and Urbanization 19, 17-37. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
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transformative adaptation is used here for the third time in the Summary, but will most readers understand what this means without
digging into the chapter? Some readers may not realise that there are other types of adaptation, e.g incremental, so perhaps
transformative adaptation should be defined when it is first used on page 3 (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation)
Statement relating to water resource use in southern Australia facing "implementation constraints" seems unnecessary in the context
of the information (political). Comment could say "water measures are increasing across sectors, progressing towards an improved
management outcomes over time" (AUSTRALIA)
replace "extreme temperatures" with "extremely high temperatures" (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial
Research Organisation)
Fire weather has been interpreted as wildfire - fire weather is one risk factor contributing to wildfire risk, along with amount of fuel
load, state of fuel load and the presence of ignitions.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
decreased snow cover, depth and duration are projected with very high confidence (in my view), so there should be some comment
about adaptation options for tourism, e.g. snow-making in Table 25-7 (noting that the impact on montane ecosystems is covered in
lines 21-23) (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
There is a significant passage on page 17 about how coastal ecosystems may account for 39% of Australia's average national annual
carbon burial. We think this is a very important fact and worth adding to the ES, TS and SPM.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
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This statement implies that sea level is only a problem if it exceeds 1m? A lot of low-lying areas will be vulnerable at sea level rise less
than this (i.e. Kakadu, http://www.climatechange.gov.au/~/media/publications/adaptation/kakadu-coast-full.pdf). (AUSTRALIA)
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include south-western Australia (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Reference to "food production" seems alittle alarmist because we can only find reference to the effects of water availability on
"agriculture production" which includes animal and human food production, fibre, biofuel production, etc. \n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
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The references to Australia's Indigenous people is inconsistent. Line 29 reports that Australia has a significant indigenous population,
while page 29, line 6 states that Australia's indigenous population is small at 2.5%.\n (AUSTRALIA)
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Please clarify “potentially large losses in areas of rapid coastal development in south-eastern Queensland”. Does this refer to beach
fronts, water resources, bio-diversity etc.? (AUSTRALIA)
It is suggested that this sub-bullet specify what type of loss is anticipated, as per the previous two sub-bullets. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Should mention the most recent extreme climate events in Australia, using reports from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and
Climate Commission (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/current/statements/ and http://climatecommission.gov.au/effects/grim-warningon-extreme-weather-for-australia/) (AUSTRALIA)
It is difficult to ascertain whether the summation placed on this page corresponds to the findings of WG1 without having access to the
relevant documents. The summation on this page (summartion of section 25.2) should be compared to WG1 findings to ensure
consistency. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This is a good summary of general observed and projected climate changes over the region. However, it does not address questions of
attribution (for example, attribution of precipitation trend changes to long-term climate change), which are found in other regional
IPCC chapters. There is the possibility of the different regional chapters being disjointed at best and contradictory in message and tone
at the worst. A clear discussion of *what* can be attrbiuted is warranted (i.e., can precipitation changes at regional scales be attributed
to anthropogenic climate change?). (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
The Murray Darling Basin statement relating to the need for increased trading and allocation to improve the resilience of the system;
comment should be made to the current trading system or the reason why the authors state the need for enhanced trading
participation as the comment currently portrays that the trading structure does not exist. (AUSTRALIA)
This paragraph cites section 25.7.5 (tourism) yet does not mention tourism. Was it left out by accident?\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Paragraph states that socio-economic dimensions "receive only limited attention and are rarely included in vulnerability assessments"
and are "lacking". This is a fairly strong and generalist statement- the authors should give consideration to context (some vulnerability
assessments do not need to explictly consider these dimensions) and provide comment to the need for such consideration. The
statement also refers to NZ sectors using narrow assumptions- could an example of a good vulnerability assessment be given?
(AUSTRALIA)
This comment about the limited studies in NZ is an important statement that reflects the current situation. Studies are ad hoc done at
the lowest level of government or by only a few sectors including the ski industry, tourism and agriculture. No comprehensive
assessment of vulnerability of our major urban settlements has been done unlike in Australia. The Ministry of Buisness Innovation and
Employment is currently funding 4 year research on Climate Impacts and Implications which may address some of this gap but it does
not have a comprehensive national vulnerability focus. Some councils have attempted to design policies for coastal erosion and
inundation some of which include sea level rise but only two or three have gone through to operative stage- Tasman District Council
and Hawkes Bay regional council. Most have used low end SLR estimates and only one (Kapiti District) has included allowance for
change but as a buffer and not using a rule that can update the levels as per the MfE guidance 2008 c as cited in the references.
(Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
There is inconsistency with referencing statements. Some statements are referenced while others aren't. Please ensure all statements
are referenced. (AUSTRALIA)
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No mention of observed and projected climate change on regional sea levels and local relative sea levels - other than a single mention
on line 49 - which doesn't convey anything very useful i.e. it will inlcude regional increases. Also are these departures from a global
mean projection or is it just saying regionally they will also increase like rest of world? (Bell, Robert, NIWA)
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I suggest this sentence be reworded as: "Tropical cyclones affect the northern parts of Australia, and more rarely ex-tropical cyclones
affect some parts of New Zealand." Reasons - Cyclone Bola affected the Eastern North Island, the Wahine Storm led to substantial loss
of life in a ferry disaster in Wellington Harbour and caused high winds and building damage in Christchurch (I was there!)- so I think
restricting this comment to "Northernmost areas of New Zealand" is incorrect. (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
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Another good reference on the various climate drivers is Risbey JS et al (2009) On the remote drivers of rainfall variability in Australia.
Monthly Weather Review 137: 3233-3253. (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
The term 'Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation' is used extensively in the literature and is used extensively in the AR5 WG1 report. The 'PDO'
is based on an EOF of North Pacific SST, whereas the IPO is based on near-global SST, including southern hemisphere SST. The PDO
includes variability linked to the Aleutian Low which has little if any relevance for Australasia. The impact of the IPO on Australia and
New Zealnd has also been specifically investigated (e.g. Salinger et al. I. J. Climatol. 2001; Power et al. I.J. Climatol. 1999, J. Climate
2006; Climate Dynamics 1999). Therefore, if only one term is used here then suggest it should be 'IPO'. Alternatively both terms could
be used. However 'PDO' is not used anywhere else in this chapter, whereas 'IPO' is, so this approach does not seem optimal. Suggest
also referring to this relevant research (i.e. Salinger et al. etc.), as it complements research cited in WG2 SOD. (Power, Scott, Bureau of
Meteorology)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
Section 25.2: I repeat the suggestion made in my review comments for the FOD that this section could include some material on
observed and predicted changes in ocean chemistry/pH in the region - I suggested some references in the FOD review. While the
authors have later in the chapter addressed my suggestions regarding comment on impacts of and vulnerability to ocean acidification
(OA), I still think it would be useful to add something about observed and predicted OA changes in this section, as a basis for these later
"impacts" comments (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
The first sentence is not reader friendly as it uses two "includings". A suggestion "Australasia exhibits a wide diversity of climate, such as
moist tropical monsoonal, arid and moist temperate, including alpine conditions".\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Given that attribution to anthropogenic climate change is mentioned in the executive summary, it could be useful to address here in
the text, rather than only in Table 25-1. (Mastrandrea, Michael, IPCC WGII TSU)
are these changes statistically significant, including the "decreases elsewhere" in New Zealand? (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Needs rephrasing, as based on results in Figure 1 some ares of NZ are white indicating less than very high confidence - text suggests
very high confidence over all of NZ (AUSTRALIA)
This does not reflect the evidence presented in an accurate way. If the summation were taken as a whole, then projections would
suggest medium confidence of decreases in Southern Australia, the northeast South Island, along with the eastern and northern North
Islands of New Zealand on the annual average and increase in other parts of New Zealand. However, confidence in the southwest of
Australia appears to be greater than this (Figures 25-2,25-3) for the CMIP5 simulations. This should be reflected in the text by a greater
statement of confidence for this area, while other areas are placed appropriately in the medium category. It is also concerning that
while the period of greatest confidence is mentioned in the subsequent paragraph (Pg. 6 Line 38-46), this is not qualified when
discussing the annual average. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
The changes listed in this section suggest limited if any importance or significance over either the Murray-Darling Basin or Queensland
in terms of an annual change. This contrasts with the relatively robust results of Irving et al. (Fig 25-3), which shows significant model
consensus in decreases for winter and spring precipitation in some areas. The authors are encouraged to reconsider the section to
ensure appropriate qualification is given to the results for the wider audience. This would include clarifying which parts of the results
are robust, which are a result of uncertainty in some seasons, and which are more certain. The changes shown in Figure 25-3 appear to
be robust according to the model consensus, however in Panel C (describing the winter) they appear less certain. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Annual river discharge in the Murray River is projected to decrease by 22.5% (Nakaegawa et al. 2013) which is consistent with
precipitation decrease.\nNakaegawa, T., A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka. 2013: Discharge of major global rivers in the late 21st century climate
projected with the high horizontal resolution MRI-AGCMs -overview-. Hydrological Processes. 27. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9831 (Nakaegawa,
Toshiyuki, Meteorological Research Institute)
Reference is made to a pattern of projected annual change (in rainfall) of -5+- 22% in Queensland.\nPlease clarify the confidence
associated with these numbers.\nPlease indicate the relevant numbers for the populous south-eastern Queensland region. (i.e. a single
value for the largest state conveys limited information) (AUSTRALIA)
Please see Figure 6a in Nakaegawa et al. (2013) for downscaled projections over New Zealand: significant increase in South Island. See
also AR5 WG I since the same results from the 60km mesh AGCM have been used for a regional climate projections. \nNakaegawa, T.,
A. Kitoh, M. Hosaka. 2013: Discharge of major global rivers in the late 21st century climate projected with the high horizontal resolution
MRI-AGCMs -overview-. Hydrological Processes. 27. DOI: 10.1002/hyp.9831 (Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki, Meteorological Research Institute)
Don't we also have at least medium confidence that acification is occurring and will continue to occur in our waters as well? (NEW
ZEALAND)
Projected change in extreme rainfall is listed as at least high confidence in the narrative, yet marked as only medium confidence in
Table 25-1 (Precipitation row, Direction of Projected Change column). (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
what about drought? Increased drought frequency in southern Australia seems to be at least a medium confidence projection,
associated with the rainfall projections noted in lines 33-34. However, uncertainty about projected changes in ENSO is also relevant.
(Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Update with the 2012 ABARES Commodity Statistics instead of 2010, see
http://www.daff.gov.au/abares/publications_remote_content/publication_series/australian_commodity_statistics (AUSTRALIA)
There are three different baseline mentioned in three paragraphs 1986-2005, 1986-2006 and 1980 - 1999, some comment possibly
needed as to actual cimate in these "baselines" vs longer term measured climate due to decadal and longer scale natural variability e.g.
IPO (AUSTRALIA)
This subsection requires information integrity that would be aligned with the Australian Government’s initiatives and actions of
adaptation. On page 9 line 5: Could add text similar to text from Adapting to Climate Change in Australia: An Australian Government
Position Paper; DCCEE 2010 “The Australian Government’s Climate Change Adaptation program is helping Australia to better
understand and manage risks linked to carbon pollution and to take advantage of potential opportunities. The Australian Government
has funded a number of projects and assessments to improve our knowledge of the impacts of climate change, strengthen the capacity
of decision-makers to respond and address major areas of national vulnerability.” (AUSTRALIA)
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Etkin et al speculated, not showed, that the root causes of climate change vulnerability cannot be addressed through risk management
alone. However, this really depends on the definition of risk management and how comprehensive it is. (AUSTRALIA)
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Can the authors explain how socio-economic concerns are being used to understand the adaptive capacity of communities? (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
Agree - social and economic aspects are frequently excluded from vulnerability studies (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
reflects the current state of knowledge very well. (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
The narrative states that half of the water extracted is used for irrigation. It would help to put this statement in context. How are
important sectors that are heavily reliant on water projected to change (e.g., increases in agriculture, hydropower)? What are the major
crops? How sensitive are they on climate change? How diversified is the agriculture base? What is the agriculture technological
capacity? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Please describe how mortality and fertility are expected to change. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Change “Australian population from 22 million in 2011” to “Australian population from 23 million in 2013” (AUSTRALIA)
This analysis appears to need several additional parameters. What is the percentage of population living within a given distance from
the coast in Australia and NZ? What is the percentage of population living close to sea level? What is the rate of change for both
measures? Also, what is the rate of urbanization in both countries? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Why are rural areas depleting and why is this expected to continue? And if depletion is being used to describe emigration, then would
suggest using "emigration". (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This statement warrants emphasis- many coastal areas in both nations are facing intense development pressure for tourism and
recreation use, leading to maladaptive patterns of growth in areas vulnerable to sea level rise and extreme weather events. (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
If possible, it would be informative to state why some coastal non-urban areas are facing increasing pressure. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Suggest that the authors include the current and recent change in the GINI Index for income for each country. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Replace "remain" with "remains" so that verb agrees. This sentence might read easier if phrased as "However, measurement of poverty
and inequality is highly contested and it remains difficult to anticipate future changes and effects on adaptive capacity"\n\n
(NETHERLANDS)
Reword as "…THEIR NUMBERS are growing faster than the average, and , in Australia THEY constitute …". Reason: If read literally, the
present wording suggests indigenous people are taller ("growing faster") than they used to be. (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
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The reference of adaptation responsibility being devolved to Natural Resource Management (NRM) bodies (among others) is becoming
increasingly relevant. However, the statement regarding 'a standard risk management paradigm' being promoted to embed adaptation
into decision-making practices is not fully representative of current approaches in the context of NRM. In Australia, and NSW
particularly, there has been a considerable emphasis in recent years on the application of systems and resilience thinking to NRM
planning. This differs to the more linear approach associated with standard risk management, which often has a focus on isolated issues
rather than systems linkages. The move towards resilience thinking is being applied broadly to NRM and is not limited to adaptation
planning. It focuses on the integration of biophysical and social information.\nReferences relating to the application of the resilience
approach in NRM include:\nWalker, B. H., N. Abel, J. M. Anderies, and P. Ryan. 2009. Resilience, adaptability, and transformability in
the Goulburn-Broken Catchment, Australia. Ecology and Society 14(1): 12.\nNatural Resources Commission. 2012. 'Framework for
assessing and recommending upgraded catchment action plans.'
http://www.nrc.nsw.gov.au/content/documents/Framework%20for%20CAPs2.pdf\nHC Combs Policy Forum (2011), 'Synthesis of broad
issues and opportunities: Documents I, II and II', HC Combs Policy Forum-Fenner School of Environment and Society NRM Initiative, The
Australian National University. https://crawford.anu.edu.au/public_policy_community/research/nrm/NRM_Ref_Group_Combined.pdf
(AUSTRALIA)
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Consider reference & web package available Cobon, D.H., Stone, G.S., Carter, J.O., Scanlan, J.C., Toombs, N.R., Zhang, X., Willcocks J.
and McKeon, G.M. (2009). The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. A Climate of
Change in Australian Rangelands, The Rangeland Journal, Volume 31 Number 1 . Accessory Publications: Matrix diagrams in Microsoft
Excel format (Excel)‡] as an additional / alternative refernce (AUSTRALIA)
Information is inadequate. The following information can be added after –framework in 2007 (COAG 2007): “The Australian
Government’s Climate Change Adaptation program is helping Australian to better understand and manage risks linked to the carbon
pollution and to take advantage of potential opportunities. Australian Government has funded a number of projects and assessments
to improve our knowledge of the impacts of climate change, strengthen the capacity of decision-makers to respond and address major
areas of national vulnerability.” (Please see: Adapting to Climate Change in Australia: An Australian Government Position Paper; DCCE
2010) (AUSTRALIA)
the federal government also supported a review of drought policy that included consideration of climate change - see
http://www.daff.gov.au/agriculture-food/drought/drought-program-reform. Australian State/Territory governments also have climate
change plans that include adaptation, e.g. http://www.climatechange.vic.gov.au/adapting-to-climate-change/Victorian-Climate-ChangeAdaptation-Plan. (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
In relation to the statement that 'no cross-sectoral adaptation policy framework .... exists', a key aspect of the South Australian
Government's Climate Change Adaptation Framework is the adoption of a regional approach to climate adaptation. This approach
recognises that climate change and its economic, social and environmental impacts will vary across South Australia and it is necessary
to develop locally relevant adaptation responses. A key aspect of the approach is the assessment of climate change impacts and
opportunities for 12 Victorian regions through regional integrated vulnerability assessments. \nSouth Australian Government, 2012.
'Prospering in a changing climate: A Climate Change Adaptation Framework for South Australia August 2012'\nThe South East
Queensland Climate Adaptation Research Initiative (SEQCARI) is another example of cross-sectoral climate change adaptation. Ref: S.
Serrao-Neumann, F. Crick, B. Harman, M. Sano, O. Sahin, R. van Staden, G. Schuch, S. Baum, D. Low Choy, March 2013, Improving crosssectoral climate change adaptation for coastal settlements: insights from South East Queensland, Australia, Regional Environmental
Change, Springer-Verlag (AUSTRALIA)
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I suggest you append to this sentence: "...and more recently on adaptation options for the primary sector (Clark et al 2012)". [The
reference is Clark, A.J.; Nottage, R.A.C.; Hansford, D. (eds), 2012 : impacts of Climate Change on Land-based Sectors and Adaptation
Options. Stakeholder Report. Ministry of Primary Industries, Wellington. 74pp]. (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
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The paragraph on private and public sector adaptation could use one or two additional sentences explaining/illustrating some of the
different approaches, barriers, or opportunities from this region. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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consider including "management of flood risk (Qld Floods Commission of Inquiry, 2012)" http://www.floodcommission.qld.gov.au/
(Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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The statement, 'demonstrate lag times in policy design and implementation and windows of opportunity presented by crises', begins by
expressing policies that address climate vulnerability, but then goes on to demonstrate lag time/crises. This could be framed by
expressing that policy traction is typically gained through crises/need for response and that proactive policy design must reflect public
values and concerns. (AUSTRALIA)
Referring to the examples cited earlier in the paragraph as "mainstreaming adaptation" is too subjective for this report, particularly
given the limited citation. The noted examples could safely be classified as "reactionary management solutions", but do not necessarily
signify an emerging trend in public acceptance of adaptive management. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Section would benefit from information on Australian Government’s initiatives on adaptation actions. Refer to Adapting to Climate
Change in Australia: An Australian Government Position Paper; DCCEE 2010 and http://www.climatechange.gov.au/what-you-cando/~/media/publications/local-govt/localadaption_localgovernment.pdf which outlines adaptation options for local government. Also,
there is the DAFF funded climate change research and extension programs and bodies like NCCARF. (AUSTRALIA)
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The predicted timeline of the risk associated with sea level rise and planning instruments can be described for both Australia and New
Zealand. (AUSTRALIA)
Given the importance of this topic, it warrants eloboration and more synthesis on the topic instead of relying on the list in the table.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
By "specific climate change responses" do the authors mean explicit emissions policy goals? Some elaboration would be helpful for the
reader. Additionally, do the authors feel that "translating goals into specific policies" is the end target of adaptation measures? (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
Support (NEW ZEALAND)
Suggest that the authors provide examples/case studies of maladaptation stemming from this approach. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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If the authors wish to us another regional example, of stakeholder engagement/co-production of knowledge, suggest considering the
PCCSP 2011 project, which did an excellent job of bringing in country-level researchers and representatives in the production of the
final report and products, which dramatically increased buy-in. Australian Bureau of Meteorology & CSIRO. (2011). Climate change in
the Pacific: Scientific assessment and new research. Volume 1: Regional overview. Volume 2: Country reports. Retrieved from
http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/PCCSP/ (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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The contents of this box are worth highlighting elsewhere, as it draws emphasis to the impacts of sea level rise, especially in Australia
where the majority of population centers are highly exposed and planning efforts are varied. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
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The summary terms for evidence and agreement provided on these lines should be italicized. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
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Casual usage of "likely" should be avoided as it is a reserved likelihood term. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
Please explain what is meant by "general psychological distress levels". Do the authors mean to imply that if a person has mental
health issues more generally, they are more likely to worry about climate? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This sentence is very important - how do all these factors translate into action? (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
This section could make mentioned of the fact that in Australia Commonwealth, state and local government have invested considerable
resources in developing high resolution DEM models of coastal and other flood prone areas as a basis for future planning e.g.
http://www.nrm.qld.gov.au/property/mapping/dtdata/pdf/all-lidar-2-12.pdf (AUSTRALIA)
A greater explanation of jurisdictional roles may enhance the context of these statements. Suggest that the word 'piecemeal' should be
avoided, a diversity of approaches reflects differing needs and community values (i.e. there is no one-size-fits-all) (AUSTRALIA)
Does the NZCPS discourage all protection, or only hard protection? (NEW ZEALAND)
The NZ Coastal Policy Statement includes climate change in assessment of hazards and doesn't discourage protection of existing
development per se - suggested wording is: "… for assessing hazard risks (including the effects of climate change), discourages hard
coastal protection for existing development ..." (Bell, Robert, NIWA)
This sentence is not quite correctly written suggest the following be the substitute wording. Delete the text after 2090 and replace with
"and considering the implications of at least 0.8m and for longer term planning an additional 0.1m per decade." Using the words 'where
relevant' makes it sound too discretionary and not what was intended. the point is to convey a changing risk for long lived assets.
(Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
Suggest: " …approach, starting with a base value …. Of 0.8 m by 2090s and 0.1 …..". (Bell, Robert, NIWA)
Not all readers will understand what path-dependency is. Overall the document tends a bit towards over use of jargon. Suggest that
the authors seek to emphasize plain English. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This first sentence could cite for New Zealand. Kenderdine, S., (2010) Examining climate change:an Environment Court perspective, in:
Daya-Winterbottom, T., Resource Management Law Reform Association of New Zealand Inc (Ed.), Resource Management Theory and
Practice Thomson Reuters, pp. 35-92. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
Tasman District Council and Hawkes Bay Regional Council both have operative planning schemes that have multiple risk based zoning
with progressive controls as you go closer to the coast. Hawkes Bay Regional Council, (2012) Hawkes Bay Regional Coastal Environment
Plan Version 3. Hawkes Bay Regional Council http://www.hbrc.govt.nz/HBRCDocuments/HBRC%20Document%20Library/Current%20RCEP%20(All%20Vol1).pdf, p. 299.Tasman District Council, (2011) Public Notice
of Legal Effect of Parts of Proposed Change 22 Mapua and Ruby Bay, Tasman Resource Management Plan. Retreived on 5 January 2011
from http://www.tasman.govt.nz/home/SearchForm?Search=Plan+Change+22&action_results=Search. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
Support. (NEW ZEALAND)
Section 25.4.3 seems to have a bit a repetition and could be reduced in length (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation)
this section seems a bit thin on new zealand literature - this is probably more a reflection of the lack of work in this area. This section
focuses on individuals do we have any information from a social psychology perspective on the roles of groups within society or
community values. Although I think this is likely to be a gap in current knowledge. (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
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One issue not covered here, which could be considered, is the likely change in intermittency in stream flows (and increased dry spell
duration) across central south-eastern Australia in particular. This is likely to have significant implications for the persistence of fully
aquatic biota but also terrestrial biota. (Sheldon et al. (2010). Dryland river waterholes: Ecological roles and threats to aquatic refugia
in arid landscapes. MFR 61, 885–895. (Bunn, Stuart, Griffith University)
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Would it be more accurate to say "high inter-annual and inter-decadal variability of PRECIPITATION and river flows?" (UNITED STATES
OF AMERICA)
For clarity, it would be helpful to specify the baseline for the 1°C global average warming described on line 51 and the 2°C warming
described on the 1st line of the next page--preindustrial? (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
Caption for Figure 25-4 does not match (exactly) that present with the figure on page 98 (AUSTRALIA)
Figure 25-4.: Change the order of "median, dry and wet" to "dry, median and wet" to match the order in the actual Figure. (NEW
ZEALAND)
If projections are twice as high as what is shown on the map, why aren't they shown? Or, what is the difference between the stated
and plotted values? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
earlier snow melt is documented in the paper by Hendrikx et al (2013) http://link.springer.com/content/pdf/10.1007/s10584-013-07414. (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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Comment
Please clarify whether this statement refers to both Australia and NZ. (AUSTRALIA)
Explain "place conections" or "place attachments" or give examples. (AUSTRALIA)
It would be helpful to specify briefly the mechanisms through which these factors can offer the described benefits and support. (Mach,
Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
Sentence is unclear. Suggest simplifying or splitting in two.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
This statement would benefit from clarification. For example, are "psychological trends" meant on line 38? (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII
TSU)
needs a sub-section on observed impacts, especially given the drought in southeast Australia from 1997-2009. A key reference is
Leblanc et al (2012) doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.012, along with other references in lines 4-5 on page 13. (Hennessy, Kevin,
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Suggest that the authors consider including an Observed Impacts sub-section. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This section has included nothing about high intensity rainfall events. I am aware that NIWA has done some work on this. It is an
ommission and leaves the reader with the impression that extreme events don't exist- far from the experience. Sam Dean has done at
least one report on high intensity rainfall events in nelson and your co author from NZ NIWA should be able to source a suitable
reference. This gaps should be filled. Also this section does not highlight teh fact that urban settlements are affected. The focus of this
section is somewhat unbalanced towards the source of the rainfall and not where it goes. At least a cross reference to later sections
where impacts on urban settlement and infratsructure would rebalance this section. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
Section 25.5.1 projected impacts, describes the impact of climate change on groundwater recharge. It would be good if there was a
figure illustrating the changes in ground water recharge, similar to figure 25-4. Please see OV Barron, RS Crosbie, SP Charles, WR Dawes,
R Ali, WR Evans, R Cresswell, D Pollock, G.Hodgson, D Currie, F Mpelasoka, T Pickett, S Aryal, M Donn and B Wurcker (2011) Climate
change impact on groundwater resources in Australia Waterlines report, National Water Commission, Canberra. (AUSTRALIA)
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Is there a reason why the references given for "Widespread drought and projections of a drier future in south-eastern and far southwest Australia" in this sentence are different from those included in the Drought row of Table 25-1? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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The report states "The broad policy framework is set out in the 2004-2014 National Water Initiative and the 2007 Commonwealth
Water Act." As the National Water Initiative is an ongoing commitment, which began in 2004 and does not have an end date, it is more
accurate to state "The broad policy framework is set out in the 2004 National Water Initiative and in the 2007 Commonwealth Water
Act."\n (AUSTRALIA)
The report states "Rural water reform in south-eastern Australia, focused on the Murray-Darling Basin, is still unfolding. The first draft
Murray-Darling Basin Plan (MDBA, 2011) aims to return 2750 GL/year of consumptive water (about one fifth of current entitlements) to
riverine ecosystems and develop flexible and adaptive water sharing plans to cope with current and future climates, although climate
change is not factored in explicitly. The Plan recommends more than A$10 billion be spent on public buyback of entitlements,
upgrading infrastructure, and improving water use efficiency." \n\nReflecting recent progress, this text should be updated as follows:
“Rural water reform in south-eastern Australia, focused on the Murray-Darling Basin, is currently being implemented. The final MurrayDarling Basin Plan (MDBA,2012: Murray Darling Basin Plan, Murray Darling Basin Authority, Canberra, Federal Register of Legislative
Instruments F2012L02240, p 28) was signed into law in November 2012 and returns 2750 GL/year of consumptive water (about one
fifth of current entitlements) to riverine ecosystems. The Basin Plan also provides for an adjustment mechanism that enables the Basinwide sustainable diversion limit to be changed in ways that provide benefits to the environment and communities. The Basin Plan
provides a comprehensive response to climate change, for example, through accrediting state water resource plans and through
substantial reviews of the plan scheduled every 10 years. The Australian Government has committed more than A$12 billion to MurrayDarling Basin reform, with funding committed to upgrading infrastructure, improving water use efficiency, and public purchase of water
entitlements for environmental use.” (AUSTRALIA)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
The sentence "In New Zealand, there is little eveidence of this" is not clear. Obviously it refers to the previous sentence about Australia
where both the 1997-2009 drought and projected declines in future water resources are already stimulating adaptation. Does the
"this" in the second sentence refer to experiences with drought or projections of water availability, or both? Clearer drafting please.
(NEW ZEALAND)
Waikato Regional Council has altered its water allocation policy to allow consents for 10 years rather than 20-30 in order to allow for a
changing climate. This change has not been directly linked with climate change policy but the motivation behind it is to about providing
future flexibility. However, these bits of information are likley to be hard to find and have not been reported in the literature to date.
(Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
Box 25-2 could talk about green infrastructure and ecosystem-based approaches that lead to improved management of water at a basin
or catchment level. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
In terms of evaluating program success, it is important to convey that not all positive outcomes are as easily measured by a cost-benefit
analysis or a number of lives saved, but that positive systemic changes are non-linear, complex, auto-correlated, and difficult to directly
attribute. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Box 25-2 describes water reform in Australia. An update of the final Basin Plan would improve this section and provide some currency
to the chapter. http://www.mdba.gov.au/what-we-do/basin-plan (AUSTRALIA)
This Box is a nice summary. Might also be good to mention that the environment is intended to have the same level of security as
consumptive users under the NWI, and that the establishment of the Commonwealth Water Holder (and other environmental water
holders) will also be an important adaptation strategy to protect aquatic ecosystems during drought. (Bunn, Stuart, Griffith University)
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IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
although climate change is not factored in explicitly. Suggestion - remove in \n\n (NETHERLANDS)
The Basin Plan does not recommend A$10b be spent on water recovery measures; this is part of the Water for the Future initiative,
managed by the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communitites: refer
http://www.environment.gov.au/water/australia/index.html (in particular "water policy and programs") (AUSTRALIA)
Box25-2. Describes reduction in catchment yield and water supply due to lower than average rainfalls from 1970s onward. But this
section is mainly concentrated on Melbourne and only there are 1 or two sentences describing Perth and south-west of Western
Australia. I would suggest to enlarge this section. Please see the Water Corporation’s ‘Water Forever Report’. They have included desal,
forest thinning, recycling as part of their 2030 planning. See Report : Water Corporation 2009. Water Forever, Towards Climatic
Resilience. http://www.watercorporation.com.au/~/media/Files/About%20us/Our%20strategies/Water-forever-50-year-plan
(AUSTRALIA)
Please insert the word “use” so that the end of the sentence reads “...and move toward higher value water use (NWC, 2010; Kirby et al.,
2012) (AUSTRALIA)
The word "gross" needs to be added before agricultural returns, otherwise this is misleading (AUSTRALIA)
mainly because water use shifted should be rephrased as "with one reason being that water use shifted to more valuable enterprises".
Water trading is one reason but it is difficult to quantify to what extent it helped maintain agricultural production in the drought. See
page 100 of the National Water Commission 2012, Impacts of water trading in the southern Murray-Darling Basin between 2006-07 and
2010-11, NWC, Canberra (AUSTRALIA)
Can the authors cite examples of efforts to rehabilitate or fortify catchment areas? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Perth is not generally regarded as being in the 'far' south west of WA. Suggest deleting the word 'far'.\n (AUSTRALIA)
Insert "water" before "use" in both lines. (NEW ZEALAND)
Probably need to mention (a) pricing and allocation constraints e.g. watering days (these often seem to be remaining in place following
implememtation in droughts and (b) pipelines to network indervidual water assesst (SEQ water grid for example). (AUSTRALIA)
is it worth mentioning the likely effect of increased fire, drought and flood frequency on water security and quality? (Hennessy, Kevin,
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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The literature section on the impacts on natural ecosystems in Australia is not complete and a few things need to be added to provide
more context.\nSuggest including more information on the array of threatening processes and the fact that these threats vary across
the landscapes. Supporting citations include:\nEvans, M.C. Watson, J.E.M., Fuller, R.A., Venter, O. Bennett, S.C., Marsack, P.R., and H. P.
Possinghamn (2011). The Spatial Distribution of Threats to Species in Australia. BioScience, 61: 281-289.\nThere has been some
excellent work on threatened species in Australia and the impact of protected areas (note the typical use of "protected areas") that
could be included:\nWatson, J.E.M., Evans, M.C., Carwardine, J., Fuller, R.A, Joseph, L.N., Segan, D.B., Taylor, M.F., Fensham, R.J. and
H.P. Possingham (2011). The capacity of Australia's protected-area system to represent threatened species. Conservation Biology,
25:324-332.\nTaylor, M., Sattler, P.S., Evans, M., Fuller, R.A., Watson, J.E.M., and H.P. Possingham (2011). What works for threatened
species recovery? An empirical evaluation for Australia. Biodiversity and Conservation 20: 767-777.\nFuller, R.A., McDonald-Madden, E.,
Wilson K.A., Carwardine, J., Grantham, H., Watson, J.E.M., Klein, C.J., Green, D. and H.P. Possingham (2010). Should we replace
underperforming protected areas to achieve better conservation outcomes? Nature 466: 365-377.\nIn terms of the adaptation options
the authors should consider treatment of the need to protect ecological processes to ensure that species have the best chance to
overcome climate change problems. Key papers around this theme are:\nWatson, J.E.M., Fuller, R.A., Watson, A.W.T., Mackey, B.G.,
Wilson, K.A., Grantham, H.S., Turner, M., Klein, C.J., Carwardine, J., Joseph, L.N. and H.P. Possingham (2009). Wilderness and future
conservation priorities in Australia, Diversity and Distributions, 15: 1028-1036.\nKlein, C.J., Wilson, K., Watts, M., Stein, J., Berry, S.,
Carwardine, J., Smith, M.S., Mackey, B. & Possingham, H. (2009a) Incorporating ecological and evolutionary processes into large-scale
conservation planning. Ecological Applications, 19, 206-219.\nKlein, C.J., Wilson, K., Watts, M., Stein, J., Carwardine, J., Mackey, B. &
Possingham, H. (2009b) Spatial conservation prioritization inclusive of wilderness quality: a case study of Australia's biodiversity.
Biological Conservation, 142, 1282-1290.\nMackey, B. G., Watson, J.E.M., Hope, G. and S. Gilmore (2008). Climate change, biodiversity
conservation, and the role of protected areas: An Australian perspective. Biodiversity, 9:11-18.\nMackey, B., J.E.M. Watson and G.
Worboys (2009). Connectivity Conservation and the Great Eastern Ranges Corridor. A report for the New South Wales Department of
Environment Climate Change. ANU Enterprise Pty Ltd. Pp. 73.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Please clarify if the first sentence of the paragraph refers to trends in both countries, or only Australia? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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This statement may need to be qualified a little - e.g. "especially in southern and eastern coastal regions in Australia" - these threats are
(currently) relatively low across northern Australia for example. (Bunn, Stuart, Griffith University)
This citation seems mostly about biogeography and species status; is it the citation tha the authors intended for this sentence? (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
What is an "atmospheric trend"? Do you mean changes in atmospheric circulation patterns? (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of
Marine Science)
It would be worthwhile to include a comment that the data does not allow comparison to the Federation drought as a baseline case
(AUSTRALIA)
Change to: " … few if any impacts ON ECOSYSTEMS have been directly attributed to climate change ..." to guard against this sentence
being (willfully) quoted out of context to imply no impacts on anything have been attributed to climate change in NZ. (Wratt, David,
NIWA, New Zealand)
0.9 degree Celsius average warming over what time period? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
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It would be good to mention the implications of rising temperature (and changes in hydrology) for the many mountain top freshwater
species. There are several endemic species of stream dwelling species (e.g. spiny crayfish and frogs) distributed on mountain tops along
the eastern coast that are highly threatened by climate (noting these are areas that are relatively unimpacted by human activity).
(Bunn, Stuart, Griffith University)
There is no specific description of likely impacts on capacity of ecosystems to provide essential services e.g., erosion control. (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
It is not clear what is happening to savannah trees and eucalypts ("migrating" to regions with different type of vegetation). (AUSTRALIA)
The following article may be useful for projections in Caribbean: Hall TC, Sealy AM, Stephenson TS, Taylor MA, Chen AA (2012) Future
climate of the Caribbean from a super-high resolution atmospheric general circulation model. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. DOI
10.1007/s00704-012-0779-7\nNakaegawa, T., A. Kitoh, H. Murakami, and S. Kusunoki. Maximum 5-day Rainfall Total and the Maximum
Number of Consecutive Dry Days over Central America in the future climate projected by an atmospheric general circulation model with
three different horizontal resolutions. Theoretical and Applied Climatology. To be accepted. (Nakaegawa, Toshiyuki, Meteorological
Research Institute)
Is the use of 'native species' referring to only animal species? No plant examples given. (AUSTRALIA)
Please provide examples of which species. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This sentence is confusing and hard to follow. Can very high confidence be attributed with only one citation? Are there any other
references that corroborate the statement? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Reference is made to high confidence in substantial risks to ……rainforests in Queensland. Please indicate what the source of these risks
(e.g. higher temperatures, less rainfall..). (AUSTRALIA)
What is "atmospheric change"? Again, an unclear term. (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
One would expect high agreement between two papers with the same author (the two references given for the statement). Are there
any additional papers, written by a different author, that support the statement? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Maybe mention that tuatara are reptiles. (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
Also might be worth mentioning there is little opportunity for latitudinal (southward) movement of full aquatic freshwater species
because few large rivers flow in north-south direction (Bunn, Stuart, Griffith University)
Suggest that the authors include discussion of possible adaptation to address impacts to ecosystem services. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Adaptation research has "been guided by the NARPs" is a little NCCARF-centric. This section could provide further context including the
Australian Government's initiatives and the CSIRO adaptation flagship. Refer to
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/government/adapt.aspx and http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/ClimateAdaptation-Flagship/ClimateAdaptationFlagshipOverview.aspx for detail (AUSTRALIA)
Section could refer to the Aust Govt's "Climate Change in NRM Planning Program". Refer to
http://www.environment.gov.au/cleanenergyfuture/regional-fund/ and http://www.climatechange.gov.au/NRMfundstream2
(AUSTRALIA)
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Line 52& 53: change reference to “supported by substantial federal government funding” to “Australian Government”.\n\nSuggest
addition to text on Australia’s investment/management actions to support adaptation: “The national biodiversity policies (Australia’s
Biodiversity Conservation Strategy 2010-2030 and Australia’s Native Vegetation Framework, 2012) provide shared goals to improve
ecosystem resilience. The Australian Government, through its initiatives Caring for our Country and the Biodiversity Fund, has invested
in a range of practical measures which will contribute to biodiversity adaptation to climate change in Australia by improving habitat
connectivity and function.” (AUSTRALIA)
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Recognizing that these options have identified in various plans, can the authors discuss to what extent these adaptation options have
actually been applied? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Suggest that the authors specifically address the potential for mal-adaptation and the need for multi-sectoral and integrated
assessments. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
units for 25.3 density of coastal populations? (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
Suggest that the authors explicitly address importance the of coastal systems for carbon storage and mitigation. Include the increasing
evidence that buried carbon is released upon destruction of these systems the carbon, enhancing the importance of these systems.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Is it possible to summarize these observed impacts on marine species and define degree of confidence evels of detection and
attribution to climate change? (Tibig, Lourdes, The Manila Observatory)
25.6.2.1. The differentiated view on impacts is highly appreciated. The directions of change have, however, not generally been included
and should also be discussed and summary terms of agreement and confidence levels added, to be balanced with WGII chapters 6 and
30. (Menzel, Lena, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)
Suggest including specific discussion of the likely impacts on the capacity of ecosystems to provide essential services, for example
coastal erosion control, coastal water quality. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Nothing on ocean acidification here, yet NZ had the only southern hemisphere time series; also there is an emerging issue that
southward extension and warming of the EAC in Australia may result in leakage of warm water across to NZ Subantarctic waters. Not
sure if this can be incorporated here: talk to Lionel Carter at VUW (NEW ZEALAND)
The time frames for these described shifts should be clarified. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
This paragraph reads as a literature review rather than an assessment. Suggest that the authors provide conclusions. Also, it would
seem to warrant a statement of confidence. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Cooper et al (2012; in references) maybe should be included under coral as it did show changes in growth rates related to SST (Lough,
Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
The Wernberg et al (2013) study examined the temperate marine communities to the south of Ningaloo at Jurien Bay. They did NOT
report on coral bleaching. The first ever recorded coral bleaching was in the Houtman Abrolhus - see Abdo DA et al (2012) Turning up
the heat: increasing temperature and coral bleaching at the high latitude coral reefs of the Houtman Abrolhus Islands. PLoS one 7 (8)
doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0043878. Another pertinent reference is Feng M et al (2013) La Nina forces unprecedented Leeuwin Current
warming in 2011. Scientific Reports 3 doi:10.1038/srep01277. (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
decline since 1985; also tropical cyclones. (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
The timeframe for the observed decline should be specified. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
Wording implies that we are monitoring things sufficiently at this stage to detect an impact. Clarify if this is the case. (NEW ZEALAND)
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IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
Another encompassing review of temperate mangroves globally that includes the likely impacts from climate change is: Morrisey et al
(2010). The Ecology and Management\nof Temperate Mangroves. Oceanography and Marine Biology: An Annual Review, 2010, 48, 43160. (Bell, Robert, NIWA)
25.6.2.2. The differentiated view on impacts is highly appreciated. The directions of change have, however, not generally been included
and should also be discussed and summary terms of agreement and confidence levels added, to be balanced with WGII chapters 6 and
30. (Menzel, Lena, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)
Suggest rewording the last sentence of the paragraph to make it more clear. (AUSTRALIA)
The authors should consider discussing the economic impacts of OA, if there are supporting studies, such as declines in fisheries and
aquaculture, as well as indigenous subsistence activities which depend on OA-sensitive organisms. Cross-references to appropriate
chapters on oceans would allow this with minimal additional text. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The citations provided seem old. Authors are encouraged to seek newer citations for impacts and issues associated with the Great
Barrier Reef and corals more generally. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Recent observations of bleaching - the references currently cited relate to coral growth rates. A better reference relating to coral
bleaching on the GBR is: Great Barrier Reef Outlook Report 2009, Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority, Townsville, Qld, 192pp.
(available at http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/outlook-for-the-reef/great-barrier-reef-outlook-report). Also Cooper et al (2012) did not
report reduced calcification on WA reefs - they did find calcification was responding to rates of SST warming with the two most
southerly cool water reefs (which showed greatest warming) actually increasing their calcification rates (suggesting temperature has
been limiting factor). Their overall conclusion was that rates of SST warming are currently driving changes in calcification rates. Also
suggests that on GBR (De'ath et al 2009) that optimum temperatures for calcification have been exceeded. (Lough, Janice, Australian
Institute of Marine Science)
In place of beginning the sentence with "there is high confidence," it would be preferable to present the level of confidence within
parentheses at the end of the sentence. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
More likely that these factors will result in changes in coral reef community structure and increasing dominance of macroalgae (cf
Fabricius et al 2011). (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
Recommend either explaning the significance of decoupling from the 4-7 year El Nino cycle, or deleteing this statement altogether.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
tropical cyclones; see also Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority 2011. Impacts of tropical cyclone Yasi on the Great Barrier Reef: a
report on the findings of a rapid ecological impact asessment, July 2011, GBRMPA, Townsville (available at
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0008/8783/GBRMPA_ImpactsTC_Yasi_onGBRSept2011.pdf). Also note that
extreme freshwater flood events is also a stress to corals and can cause bleaching as observed in recent extreme wet seasons. (Lough,
Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
Please describe the extent to which these adaptation options have been tested or applied. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Adaptation research has "been guided by the NARPs" is a little NCCARF-centric. This section could provide further context including the
Australian Government's initiatives and the CSIRO adaptation flagship. Refer to
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/en/government/adapt.aspx and http://www.csiro.au/Organisation-Structure/Flagships/ClimateAdaptation-Flagship/ClimateAdaptationFlagshipOverview.aspx for detail (AUSTRALIA)
Section could provide reference to work undertaken by the Great Barrier Reef Management Protection Authority- adaptation plan.
http://www.gbrmpa.gov.au/outlook-for-the-reef/climate-change/marine-park-management (AUSTRALIA)
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25.6.2.3. A crucial point is how adaptation is defined. A species moving away to cooler waters according to its thermal preference
evades the temperature effects, however, a species able to stay is the one displaying adaptation to warming in an evolutionary sense.
The fact that marine species can move along large gradients is beneficial, however, then the species composition of communities and
ecosystems will change putting organisms under new adaptative pressures due to changing species interactions. These principles have
been addressed in WGII ch. 6. (Menzel, Lena, Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research)
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In place of beginning the sentence with "there is high confidence," it would be preferable to present the level of confidence within
parentheses at the end of the sentence. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
clarify that forecasting refers to seasonal forecasting of high sea surface temperatures (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and
Industrial Research Organisation)
The authors are encouaged to consider additional discussion of how climate change will impact the off-shore fisheries in Antarctica and
the Pacific Islands. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
While the authors discuss possible adaptation actions for impacts to fisheries it would seem important to include at least mention of
possible adaptation for impacts to other ecosystem services. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Not strictly true that only one study "describes climate-related change in a managed ecosystem", e.g. Sadras and Petrie (2011) and
Darbyshire et al. (2013). Please clarify if you actually mean the study has formally attributed the changes seen in the ecosystem to
climate change. Darbyshire R, Webb L, Goodwin I, Barlow EWR. (2013) Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring
phenology. Int J Biometeorol DOI 10.1007/s004840-012-0567-1 (AUSTRALIA)
Native forests are excluded from this section. The rationale is not obvious. Are they not part of the forestry sector in these countries?
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Please update the references: Instead of ABARES 2011a, use 'Australia's forests at a glance 2012' ABARES and Gavran, M and Parsons,
2010 could be updated with Gavran, Mijo, 2012 "Potential effects of climate change on forests and forestry in Australia, 2011, ABARES.
(AUSTRALIA)
The NZ Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2013) suggests 2 Mha plantation estate (page 195) (NEW ZEALAND)
Refer to the more recent MfE Net Position (2013) or the Greenhouse Gas Inventory (2013) for a statement on the influence of the
profitability of dairy farming (p 229) (NEW ZEALAND)
Authors are encouraged to include consideration of plantations and their potential to reduce streamflow in a water-scarce future. See
Zhang et al, 2011, "Estimating effects of plantation expansion and climate variability on streamflow for catchments in Australia," Water
Resources Research 47(12). (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Should also refer to the results for future forest growth from the report “Potential effects of climate change on forest and forestry in
Australia”, 2011, ABARES (AUSTRALIA)
Please explain what is meant by, "In New Zealand, temperatures are mostly sub-optimal for forest growth...". (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
It is unclear to what impacts these changes would adapt -- fires, pests? On pests, add Singh et al, 2010, "Implications of climate change
for forests, vegetation and carbon in Australia," New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science 2010 Vol. 40 pp. 141-152. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
A modest expansion in the treatment of adaptation would be very useful, particularly considering the level of expertise of the authors
and the focus of WG2. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
What are the other non-climate stressors that have made it hard to attribute impacts to climate change? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Please clarify from what baseline this 3 degree rise is from. (AUSTRALIA)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
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In this section there is little about the impacts, adaptive capacity and vulnerability of the grazing industry, a land use that occupies so
much of Australia (line 15). Insert in Line 40, between the existing sentences, 'More droughts and lower summer rainfall are likely to
have the largest negative impact, lowest adaptive capacity and highest vulnerability on the northern Australia pastoral industry (Cobon
et al 2009).' Reference citation Cobon, D.H., Stone, G.S., Carter, J.O., Scanlan, J.C., Toombs, N.R., Zhang, X., Willcocks J. and McKeon,
G.M. (2009). The climate change risk management matrix for the grazing industry of northern Australia. A Climate of Change in
Australian Rangelands, The Rangeland Journal, Volume 31 Number 1, pg 31-49. (AUSTRALIA)
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Reduced stomatal conductance - This phrase will not be meaningful to a non-expert audience. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Soil erosion also likely to be important in Australia especially in areas with low ground cover and high rainfall intensities (AUSTRALIA)
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Luo et al. seems less optimistic about offsetting projected impacts. Please reconsider this conclusion (or its support by the cited
references). (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
this statement could be expanded a little more, to give impacts both with and without adaptation, and if possible to add a little
quantitative information. Also, the authors may want to check some more recent papers such as Potgieter, A., Meinke, H., Doherty, A.,
Sadras, V., Hammer, G., Crimp, S., & Rodriguez, D. (2013). Spatial impact of projected changes in rainfall and temperature on wheat
yields in Australia. Climatic Change, 1-17\n (Lobell, David, Stanford University)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
The section on impacts on livestock is inadequate and focussed on a very limited number of studies relating mainly to pasture. The
section fails to discuss the impacts of increased temperatures on livestock, in particular the impacts of heat stress, and conversely the
potential benefits of reduced frost. Both are of particularly relevance to the Australian livestock industries, with impacts on animal
health and quality of product (such as wool quality). If also fails to discuss the potential impact of temperature change on vectors and
severity of pests and diseases. Also critical for livestock. This section requires further work and a broader canvassing of the literature.
(AUSTRALIA)
Is this correct? That 25 sites in southern Australia cover 40 per cent of beef production regions? Maybe a percentage of total area is
better as the type/size of the production regions aren’t mentioned. (AUSTRALIA)
Explain the reason for shorter growing season. (AUSTRALIA)
The paper cited as Ghahramani and Moore (submitted) was rejected by Crop and Pasture Science. A revised version will very shortly be
re-submitted. Some of the material in it will be also covered in an oral paper to the International Grassland Congress. (Moore, Andrew,
CSIRO)
Paragraph notes that future rainfall remains the most uncertain change. This is true, yet research indicates with reasonable certainty
that rainfall over southern Australia is expected to reduce, particularly during winter - and this is noted elsewhere in the chapter (eg.
pages 12-13). Suggest the paragraph also note this expected drying over southern Australia. (AUSTRALIA)
This is an important research and warrants consideration for inclusion in Section 25.11. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The reference to "biocontol" or "biological control agent introductions" is important to this section, but the range of biocontrol
applications is fairly broad and not widely understood by a non-expert audience. Suggest providing examples of biocontrol here.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Update the DAFF, 2010 reference with DAFF, 2012 (AUSTRALIA)
It would be helpful to identify the group(s) from which a higher level of commitment is needed. Farmers? Politicians? Municiple water
service providers? All? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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In this paragraph, authors say there will be negative and positive effects from climate and fire interactions in the future. However, the
list includes only negative impacts. What are the positive effects that may occur? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Note that Queensland is curretly considering future fire risk for urban infrastructure under a review of State Planning Policy
(AUSTRALIA)
The authors state, "Recent events demonstrated significant vulnerability to climate extremes." However, only the example of
vulnerability of the mining sector to flood risk is described. Providing at least one other example would support the plural use of
"events" and "extremes". (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The section on mining is very lightly discussed. Statements relating to "tensions among industry, social and ecological objectives" and
"climate scepticism" add very little to the chapter and provide a perspective that the industry is not adapting. Authors should give
consideration to providing examples of adaptation in industry (generally- mine water management and transportation, specifically,
design criteria and programs by Rio Tinto and BHP
Billiton).http://www.riotinto.com/ourapproach/7212_climate_change_adaptation.asp and Sharma, V, van de Graaff, S, Loechel, B, and
Franks, DM (2012) Extractive resource development in a changing climate: learning the lessons from extreme weather events in
Queensland, Australia, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast pp.110. (AUSTRALIA)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
In place of beginning the sentence with "there is high confidence," it would be preferable to present the level of confidence within
parentheses at the end of the sentence. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
What percentage of Australia's population is considered "rural"? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
reflects the current state of knowledge very well. (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
I think these data were presented in the AR4. It would be good to present some more recent data for the AR5. For example, Leblanc et
al (2012) state "it was estimated that during 2005–06 and 2007–08 the total area of irrigated land fell by 42% compared to normal
conditions (MDBA, 2010). The Australian Reserve Bank estimated that the 2006–07 dry year in Australia reduced gross domestic
product (GDP) by almost 1%, whereas farm GDP fell by around 20% (RBA, 2006). A modeling study of the impact of the drought on
regional economies found that from 2006 to 2009 the drought resulted in an estimated ~6000 jobs being lost in southern part of the
MDB (Wittwer and Griffith, 2011). The model showed that depressed farm investments continue to affect employment levels several
years after the end of the drought (Wittwer and Griffith, 2011)". See doi:10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.10.012 (Hennessy, Kevin,
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Authors may wish to mention the dependence on overseas mining, e.g. PNG and to include issues associated with ports. (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
Should mention that heatwaves have led to black-outs, not just increasing energy demand. See Institutional Adaptability to Redress
Electricity Infrastructure Vulnerability Due to Climate Change, John Foster et al., The University of Queensland and University of
Technology, Sydney, 2012. (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Authors may wish to mention use of deep seawater and OTEC for cooling and as an alterative energy source. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Do projected demand statistics include any consideration of demand management? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Tropical Cyclone Yasi (Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
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Reference is made to the costs associated with floods and cyclone Yasi. Please indicate (in the next section) what is projected for both
flood events and cyclones (with confidence estimates). For example, there is little evidence for an increase in cyclone numbers. There is
some confidence in projections for an increase in heavy rainfall events. (AUSTRALIA)
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The importance of the GBR for tourism and the potential impacts on the GBR for tourism potential are discussed. However, no other
natural areas are flagged for potential impacts to tourism (e.g., SW Australia forests, coastlines nationally etc.). The also applies to page
31 lines 8-50. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Reference is made to “The Great barrier Reef is expected to degrade under…”\nPlease indicate the source of this projected degradation
(i.e. bleaching events, runoff events,….)\n (AUSTRALIA)
The relative applicability of these statements to NZ and Australia is not made clear. (NEW ZEALAND)
Estimates of current and/or projected changes in injury and death from extreme weather events and fires should be included in the
human health section. Impacts on respiratory problems should also be included here. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
Are there any observed impacts for NZ? (AUSTRALIA)
25% to 46%? Or just 46? There are three days but two values. (AUSTRALIA)
This statement needs a citation, or does it go with the 2nd sentence in the section? Either way, suggest claifying what is meant.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This paragraph is particularly confusing, as it is not at all clear why the different scenarios were chosen and how to compare them.
Suggest re-phrasing. (AUSTRALIA)
was the hot dry scenario based on one GCM? If so, the model should be stated (as in line 43). Projections based on one model
understate the range of uncertainty. (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Is the baseline (1961-1990) for A2 and B2 scenarios different? It should presumably be either 2.5 or 2.6 for both. Also, the colon after
the reference in parentheses should be removed.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
based on which GCM(s)? (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Neels Botha may have some work to contribute in this section with regards to farmer welfare and stress for NZ. I can follow up if
needed (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
The adaptation section for human health focuses primarily on heat stress. The authors should consider current or planned adaptive
measures for the other aspects of health that will be impacted by climate change (for instance, extreme weather events). (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
The first sentence of the paragraph is unclear. Do the Authors mean that research on climate change and human health has mainly
focused on health impacts rather than adaptation strategies? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Has potential migration of indigenous peoples to less impacted areas been studied at all? Likewise, should the potential (and current)
impact of climate induced migration INTO Australia and New Zealand from Pacific Islands be considered in this chapter, as countries are
already making agreements for land and resources? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The indigenous population here is stated to be 2.5%, whereas on pg 8 it is 2%. This is no doubt due to rounding however this should be
consistent. (AUSTRALIA)
this text should be moved to page 8 (lines 15-19) (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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This section does not mention coastal flood insurance. Is this not relevant in either country? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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The conclusion that insurance schemes effectively distribute risk is not universally held. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Oceania can include regions outside "Australasia". Suggest taking care to keep geographical references consistent. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
if there has been an increase in the frequency and / or intensity of some extreme events in recent decades in Australia, with no trend in
normalised insurance losses, does this suggest that adaptation has offset the losses? What can be said about the proportion of the
population with full insurance cover, and has there been a trend? To what extent are under-insured people/businesses being bailed out
by government disaster relief funding and public donations? Is this a form of mal-adaptation? (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
the EQC government scheme does not only manage geological risk. It covers the impacts to land associated with rainfall and storm
events as well. This hould be corrected. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
Suggest an explanation of the extent to which insurance private and/or subsidized or provided by the government is provided, as this
may have implications for possible incentives toward risk reduction. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
It is very interesting that 2.5% of the population controls 25% of the land area. Are indigenous lands (not just the population) more
subject to climate impacts than non-Indigenous lands? For example, in the case of the U.S. and Canada, indigenous populations are
clustered on marginal lands that were allocated to them as the most undesirable areas and hence may be more subject to drought, fire,
etc. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Comments relate to use of "controls" (line 6) which may be better reflected by "manages". And "Indigenous re-engagement with
environmental management" (line 32) which may be enhanced by providing context of the significant role Indigenous Australians
already play in environmental management (AUSTRALIA)
The paragraph seems to focus primarily on managed adaptation. Have there been any studies on autonomous adaptation to date by
Indigenous communities? (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Not clear what this statement means: Institutions external to Indigenous communities can constrain their adaptive capacity\n\n
(NETHERLANDS)
Suggest that the authors recheck this reference with regard to the stated conclusion. In a quick scan of the reference (Prober et al
2011), this statement was not evident. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This is quite a one-directional consideration of vulnerability and adaptation among Maori. Could Maori knowledge help mainstream NZ
society to adapt? See Berkes, 2009, "Indigenous ways of knowing and the study of environmental change", for instance. (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
This sentence refers to what might be termed the "impact of response measures" not the physical impacts of climate change. It seems
out of scope and could be deleted. (NEW ZEALAND)
Recommend the addition (onto the end of the paragraph) of the following sentence:\nSpecific M?ori participation in climate adaptation
planning and action will assist in the identification of priorities and targeting of initiatives to reduce vulnerability and build the adaptive
capacity of M?ori (King D., et al 2012. P96; King D., Penny, G. 2006). (NEW ZEALAND)
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consider using material from "Sharing Risk: Financing Australia’s Disaster Resilience", by Edward Mortimer, Anthony Bergin and Rachel
Carter, ASPI Special Report, Issue 37, The Australian Strategic Policy Institute, February 2011
http://www.aspi.org.au/publications/publication_details.aspx?ContentID=280&pubtype=-1. The paper advocates thinking strategically
about how to reduce future losses from natural disasters and aid victims in their recovery efforts. It urges that fundamental questions
are asked about how private insurance and government assistance can be better leveraged to help communities recover. The paper
asserts that a new approach is needed to financing the costs of natural disasters and encouraging those living in high-risk areas to be
better prepared. It includes nine recommendations to strengthen the role of insurance for Australian disaster resilience. (Hennessy,
Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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This is a very old reference. Given that there have been a number of very costly natural disasters post 2001 (i.e. 2011 floods in
Queensland, 2009 bushfires in Vic), is the use of this reference valid, and this statement still accurate? (AUSTRALIA)
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I think the reference to Griffiths 2007 given here should be removed. (The Griffiths paper is about an analysis of observations, not about
downscaling of climate model projections). (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
perhaps mention the planned update of the Australian Rainfall and Runoff Handbook being managed by Engineers Australia. (Hennessy,
Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Suggest additional consideration of ecosystem-based approaches to adaptation, such as restoring/protecting wetlands to absorb excess
water. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Support. (NEW ZEALAND)
The word 'structural ' is used to refere to the type of transforamative approaches. This word in the NZ context can be confused with
structures like stopbanks(levees). Suggest you delete the word as you go on to say what you mean. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
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transport is mentioned in passing here and in 7 other places in the chapter. Given the importance and exposure of this sector, perhaps
it deserves more detailed discussion. See Taylor and Philp (2010). Also see Sustainable Urban Planning and Urban Responses to Climate
Change - A Review of Practices in the ACT, New South Wales and Victoria, Australia, Hitomi Nakanishi, John Black and Ken Doust, Paper
Presented at Fifth Urban Research Symposium, France, 2009 http://www.urs2009.net/docs/papers/Nakanishi.pdf. The paper focuses
on the Australian government, both in terms of responses to the Kyoto Protocol and to the current policies of the Labor Government. It
reviews state policies on climate change with particular reference to cities and transport. The paper describes the new institutional
arrangements and policies that are emerging for mitigation, adaptation and risk assessment associated with climate change in cities.
\n (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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Move "e.g." prior to "City of Melbourne" (AUSTRALIA)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
It is surprising that Urban settlement imoacts and adaptation are not one of the main sectors in the previous sections which has a heavy
bias towards the traditional economic sectors. Most of our poulations in NZ and Australia reside in urban areas as do our most
significant investments in infrastructure. At this juncture this can only be rectified by some careful cross referencing elsewhere in the
Chapter. However one change would be to add at Line 12 the words "stormwater, waste water and water reticulation and storage."
These are systems that could be the first to be affected by rising water tables and sea level rise in low-lying areas. (Lawrence, Judy, PS
Consulting)
Would it be better to use the term "synergies" here in place of or in addition to "co-beneficial"? (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
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This sentence needs a qualifier that moderation or delay should not create maladaptation. This same qualifier is also needed in the
Executive summary as well where a similar wording appears. The last clause of the sentence doesn't quite follow possibly something at
the end is missing? The authors need to check the meaning and the language here. "where the need" could be replaced with "and
require transformative adaptation as the rate and amount of climate change increases" (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
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Use of word 'inland' not optimal. Can give the impression of arid zone or well away from populated regions and, therefore, areas with
less infrastructure. Perhaps reword as non-coastal? (AUSTRALIA)
It is good to see the emerging risk of compounding extreme events identified. There is some evidence in NZ that communities
repeatedly hit by summer high intensity srorms like Nelson and Takaka in northwest Nelson NZ. Again the NIWA co author should be
able to identhat could go here. One concern about the typology of key and emerging risks is that the emerging risk mentioned is the
type of risk that required staged addressing over time and therefore if policy makers only address 'key' risks then anticipatory
adaptations will not be taken. The authors need to consider the risks associated with highlighting some risks and not others in this case
of extreme events (Lawrence Judy PS Consulting)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
I suggest you add a reference to the Urban Impacts toolbox developed in New Zealand. [The actual reference is: NIWA, MWH, GNS and
BRANZ, 2012: Impacts of climate change on urban infrastructure and the built environment: Toolbox Handbook, NIWA Wellington,
32pp. (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
agree with this paragraph (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
Support - this is a significant barrier to resolving this issue. Please ensure this is reflected in Table 25.2. (NEW ZEALAND)
There are other links missed in this section. E.g. increase in flood frequency and intensity and roading infrastructure access following
extreme events. This is an issue in NZ -the Gisbourne railway was closed for this reason; the Manawatu Gorge was closed for almost a
year with major costs to frieght companies and people movement in teh NI of New Zealand References to these can be found online in
reports by NZtransport Authority (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
agree with this section (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
Should biosecurity be included here? (NEW ZEALAND)
This sentence is arguably too technical for a non-expert audience. Suggest revising. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Does the statement "Carbon sequestration would mostly improve water quality through reduced erosion" relate to revegetation
(biological) sequestration? (AUSTRALIA)
25.9.2. There is nothing here on the impacts of Australasia on other countries, other than to say they may pay more for food. What
about the role of Australia as a coal producer?\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
States that climate change impacts could reduce demand for coal, but is this due to reduced economic activity or does it take account
of mitigation policy responses? i.e. a response to impacts which come about through a simplified policy response, or as a direct result
of policy? (Kentarchos, Anastasios, European Union DG Research, Directorate Environment Climate Change & Environmental Risks Unit)
There are several studies cited here that suggest climate change may affect emmigration/immigration in the Australia region. Even if
there are only a few causal theories, they may be worth noting in this report. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The statement that scenario-based studies give high confidence that mitigating emissions from a high to medium low emissions
scenario "would markedly" lower the projected increase in flood risks sound s an odd statement because you can't use a scenario study
to say something would happen. I suggest this is an language issue if teh authors could find a rewording to address this impression to
the reader. Maybe replace 'would' with 'have the potential to'. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
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These examples are of transformative, not incremental approaches. The sentence is confusing. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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While that authors were right to note drawbacks to the deferal of adapatation decisions due to limited information in this paragraph, it
would also be pertinent to note similar pitfalls to premature adaptation decisions that could lead to maladaptation. This is noted later
in FAQ 25-1, lines 32-34, and should be included here as well. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Two knowledge gaps in this section are data collection and enhancement of climate models. As a general statement, many of the
conclusions in this report were derived from climatic data or products of climate models. It is important to note that to increase the
accuracy of climate projections, more research is needed to enhance current climate models and gain a better understaning of natural
climate variability patterns driven by events such as ENSO, IOD, Pacific Decadal Oscillation and the Southern Annual Node. The input
necessary to feed the models comes from in situ and satellite data. In situ data gaps curently exist in these regions, and the costs to
maintain/operate the infrastructure supplying the current observations are increasing, while funding support is decreasing in many
globally recognized research institutions both within and outside the Australasia region. Inability to fill current data gaps will limit the
extent of climate forecast acuracy. Inability to maintain current data streams (or replace them with adequate data streams that are
more affordable to maintain) will cause gaps in the data record and can increase climate forecast error. The long-term implications of
this can be extrapolated through the previous sub-chapters. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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strongly agree with this paragraph (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
What about the vulnerability of the economic system?\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
For this risk, is the concept of an emergent risk (given the chapter 19 distinction between emergent and emerging risks) more
appropriate? (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
Has Australia's use of cost-benefit analyses and other tools for analyzing trade-offs been examined? If so, it could warrant discussion.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
agree with this section (Blackett, Paula, Agresearch ltd)
This is an extremely important set of statements and I suggest that it be elevated into the executive summary. It is at the heart of the
adaptation challenge for decision-makers. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
I have real problems with this sentence as it can only hold true if the incremental adjustments and use of current tools do not entrench
risk exposure and result in maladaptation. I also checked the reference and can't exactly find a statement that supports this sentence??
It also could be seen to contradict the earlier references to new research which is questioning the ability of current tools and planning
approaches to increase resilience or address changing climate risk Page 10 Line 31 to 38 refers. Even if they were sufficient under
limited change scenarios they would not address the extremes where the most significant damage occurs. the impression is that limited
change scenarios would give a false sens eof confidence and not address the range of possible conditions. Refer Lawrence J, Reisinger A,
Mullan B, Jackson B 2013 Exploring climate change uncertainties to support adaptive management of changing climate risk.
Environmental Science and Policy (in press) . The reference needs checking butit certaintly needs amendment to avoid the
inconsistency with the Page 10 statements and the sentences that follow and the false impression it gives to decision-makers.
Suggested rewording of the sentence is as follows. Change the 'will' to 'may be percieved as increasing resilience to CC variability and
thus being sufficient under scenarios of limited CC. Then the next sentence should start with "However...." This would then make the
qualification in the sentence that follows more logical and flow better. (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
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Government and Expert Review
IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
Add a reference after word 'responses' Dovers, S. 2013 How much adaptation: are existing policy and institutions enough? Chapter 8 in
J Paultikof, A Boulter, A Ash, M Stafford Smith, M Parry, M Waschka and D Guitart. Climate Adaptation Futures, Wiley-Blackwell, Sussex
UK (Lawrence, Judy, PS Consulting)
Sections relate to Australian governance arrangements. Refinements could be made here. Provide comment to the role of COAG (see
http://www.climatechange.gov.au/government/initiatives/sccc/discussion.aspx) for roles and responsibilities across the three tiers of
government. (AUSTRALIA)
It seems odd that there are only 2 questions in the FAQ? What was the basis for identifying topics for FAQ's. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
FAQ 25-1 Authors may wish to name the different approach in line 15. The figure may use an hypothetical example of a specific sector
issue to make it less conceptual. That way it will become more accessible for the general audience. (Chatterjee, Monalisa, IPCC WGII
TSU)
Suggest removing the use of the word 'so'. It implies that uncertainties are huge, and isn't necessary. (AUSTRALIA)
The framing for this timeframe as an era of climate responsibility could be mentioned. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
The wording here could be adjusted slightly to avoid potential interpretations the policy prescriptiveness. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII
TSU)
This paragraph could probably could be enhanced by comments regarding better management of current climate variability (large in
most parts of Australia) e.g. through use of seasonal climate forcasting will help adaptation as conditions slowly become more extreme.
e.g. http://www.theccrspiconference.com.au/inewsfiles/presentations3/Alistair_Hobday_C10.pdf (AUSTRALIA)
The statement that" when the adaptation challenge is reframed as implications for near-term decisions, many decisions are not greatly
affected or do not require dedicated adaptation response". This may be the case for decisions by farmers but definitely not for pubic
authorities making decisions on infrstructure and urban settlement planning that have long lifetimes. By making climate change
relevant to those decisions has the effect of changing the response by public policy agents who can consider the need to staged
decisions over time. While this FAQ needs to be read in totality I find the wording at line 23 detracts from the overall message and
could be confusing to the reader. Perhaps some distinction could be made between decisions taht individuals make in the course of
their business and which are affected by self interest as compared with decisions taken by public authorities who make decisions for
the wider public interest. Otherwise these statemente could be read as absolutes which of course they are not. (Lawrence, Judy, PS
Consulting)
FAQ 25-2 Authors may wish to drop the first paragraph of the answer. In an FAQ it is best to go directly to the actual answer.
(Chatterjee, Monalisa, IPCC WGII TSU)
This is a very important point, but it hides much detail - for each thing in an ecosystem or human society, there is a different definition
(including timespan) of "current climate"\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
this is not a comprehensive list of sectors likely to be affected, so replace "affect" with "affect sectors such as" (Hennessy, Kevin,
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
Cross chapter box seemed out of place in Australasian chapter. Would fit better if some reference to Aust/NZ, as an example, were
provided. (AUSTRALIA)
How much of the difficulty of avoiding such impacts is due to climate change that is locked in over the next few decades? The framing of
the era of climate responsibility could be mentioned here. (Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
This is titled "Cross-Chapter Box" but no information is given as to its placement in the WGII report. Is it to be repeated in each
chapter? Or only included once with a reference? The second approach would seem to have the most merit. (NEW ZEALAND)
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Government and Expert Review
IPCC WGII AR5 Chapter 25 , SECOND ORDER DRAFT
Comment
citation of Gerbens-Leenes is not in the correct IPCC format (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation)
Suggest removing this sentence as it does not add materially beyond what the subsequent sentence states.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
The reference should be 'Impact of the drought on Australian production in 2002-03' (not 2003-04 as stated). (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
The reference is incomplete (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The references are incomplete (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The journal should be The Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
The first authors last name is Gorddard, not Gorrdard (as printed). Also, the title of the report is Striking the balance: Coastal
development and ecosystem values" not "Striking a balance: the tradeoffs between coastal ecosystems and development" (as printed)
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
This line should read: "[Nottage, R.A.C.., Wratt, ... (Wratt, David, NIWA, New Zealand)
This reference is incomplete. It should read: "Mullan, A.B., …Temperature Series. NIWA, Wellington. 175 pp". (Wratt, David, NIWA, New
Zealand)
Sea surface temperature/observed change (row 3, column 2): for consistency, replace "from 1909-2009" with "over1909-2009".
(AUSTRALIA)
Table 25-1. Reference needed for Precipitation Extremes, NZ, Observed Change statement. (AUSTRALIA)
Table 25.1: The entry in the bottom left-hand cell on this page (on NZ extreme annual one day rainfalls) should be backed up by a
reference - presumably the Griffiths 2007 paper already referred to elsewhere in this table (No 33 in the Table references). (Wratt,
David, NIWA, New Zealand)
Table 25-1: This is a very useful table. (NEW ZEALAND)
Table 25-1 Comment: It would be helpful to provide information about changing patterns of rain vs. snow precipitation, if it exists.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-1 Comment: It would be more demonstrative to provide good examples of sea surface temperature projections for NZ.
(UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-1 Comment: 'Mean air temperature' row, 'Examples of projected magnitude of change' column: D Table 4.3 of the given
reference (5) gives the following numbers: Aus: 0.5-1.4 (2030, A1B), 0.9-2.4 (2070, B1), 1.7-4.6 (2070, A1F1), which are different than
the ones given in Table 25-1 (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-1 Comment: Mean air temperature row, Observed change column -- cannot find the reported 0.09 degree Celsius increase per
decade since 1909 for NZ in the given reference [Mullen, et. al. 2010] (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-1 Comment: 'Precipitation extremes' row, 'Observed change' column -- The reference(s) for NZ is missing. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
Table 25-1 Comment: Given the contraints of using existing research, it would be highly preferable to work with a single definition of
drought. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-1 Comment: Inclusion for the table Tropical Cyclones and Other Severe Storms: Observed Change: No significant trends in the
occurrence of environments conducive to severe thunderstorms over Australia for the period 1979-2011 (Allen and Karoly 2013) Include relevent reference Allen, J. and D. Karoly, 2012: A Climatology of Australian Severe Thunderstorm Environments 1979-2011:
Inter-annual Variability and the ENSO Influence. International Journal of Climatology. DOI: 10.1002/joc.3667 (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
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Table 25-1 Comment: The language in the table does not clearly communicate the results, and does not describe the findings of Timbal
et al. 2010b, or Leslie et al. 2008 adequately and misses a number of references. There should also be a statement of the limited
research over Australia concerning convective storms. A suggested phrasing: "Single studies project decreased frequency of cool season
tornadoes in southern Australia [ref 94 below], while hail is expected to increase in magnitude but decrease in frequency over the
Sydney region." [ref 95 below] Single GCM studies have shown a similar trend in convective environments over the region as compared
to global findings [refs 96,97,98 below] with increases to surface temperature and moisture increasing the available energy for severe
thunderstorms, outweighing decreases in other parameters. However, mid-atmospheric warming is expected to moderate increases to
the frequency. 96: Niall, S. and K. Walsh, 2005: The impact of climate change on hailstorms in southeastern Australia. International
Journal of Climatology, 25, 1933-1952, doi:10.1002/joc.1233. 97: Abbs, D. J., B. Timbal, A. S. Rafter, and K. J. E. Walsh, 2007: Severe
Weather. Climate Change in Australia: Technical Report 2007, 102-106. 98: Trapp, R. J., N. S. Diffenbaugh, H. E. Brooks, M. E. Baldwin,
E. D. Robinson, and J. S. Pal, 2007: Changes in severe thunderstorm environment frequency during the 21st century caused by
anthropogenically enhanced global radiative forcing. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. (USA), 104, 19 719-19 723. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Table 25-1: Box on tropical cyclones. Note that grey literature (i.e. Abbs 2012: The impact of climate change on the climatology of
tropical cyclones in the Australian region. CSIRO Climate Adaptation Flagship Working paper No. 11) suggests that tropical cyclones
could move south in the future. There is however, an existing absence of this research being published in the peer-reviewed literature.
(AUSTRALIA)
Table 25.1. A magnificent job! First column: should say: " … but frequency of severe landfalling tropical cyclones in NE Aus have declined
significantly since the late 19th Century" (Power, Scott, Bureau of Meteorology)
Table 25-2: This is a very useful table from a policy-makers perspective. (NEW ZEALAND)
Table 25-2 Comment: It may be more helpful to have the references numbered underneath the table (as in Table 25-1). Then for every
enabling factor, i.e. improved guidance and tools to manage uncertainty, the proper references can be cited. As it is now, it's not clear
which references line up with each enabling factor (in each row). (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
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Table 25.2. Suggest also mentioning Power et al. BAMS 2005 here regarding uncertainty in projections as an impediment to use of
projections information and importance of clear and ongoing communication of uncertainty (amongst other things), and resource
intensity of ongoing communication needs. This study also raises important issues not addressed in this Table. e.g. mismatch between
spatial or temporal scale of projections provided and scale of information needed for decision-making; crucial need for decision-makers
to regard the scientists as credible; need for contextual information over and above pure projections information; importance of
contextual setting that can in some cases (as it did in swWA) raise priority of making use of (uncertain) projections information;
sometimes other issues override projections information. (Power, Scott, Bureau of Meteorology)
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Table 25-3. Life cycles section examples do not reflect the majority of studies. Since the vast majority of phenological studies in
Australia are avian at least one example from this taxa should be provided. E.g Chambers et al. (2011) provides examples for seabirds
and warming sea surface temperatues, but there are also many more examples available. (AUSTRALIA)
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There are some differences in the assessment of confidence levels in the detection and attribution of observed impacts to climate
change in the different sectors as presented in Table 25-3 with that of Chapter 18. Is it possible to come to an agreement? (Tibig,
Lourdes, The Manila Observatory)
Government and Expert Review
Comment
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Table 25-5. Suggest adding cost as a barrier to adoption of desalinisation. \n\n (NETHERLANDS)
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Table 25-5 Comment: Under Flooding and coastal erosion, it is suggested that the authors include ecosystem-based approaches to
adaptation and not just approaches that rely on hard infrastructure. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-6. Re: desalination. It is not immediately clear how discharge from desal. plants reduces effectiveness of measures to reduce
water demand. \n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-6 Comment: Under Water security, it is suggested that authors include approaches such as water storage and desalination
plants can which also perpetuate inefficient and otherwise unsustainable water uses (e.g. irrigated agriculture) in some areas for longer
term. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Table 25-6 should be reviewed as the provision of desalinated water is not usually considered to affect water demand management,
with the exception of price effects. Suggested removing the text "and reduce the effectiveness of measures to reduce water demand
(Barnett and O'Neill, 2010)". (AUSTRALIA)
Table 25-7. Re: camels. It is confusing to refer to them as camels, then as exotic vertebrate pests. Suggest removing that term.\n\n
(NETHERLANDS)
adapting to decreasing snowfall would affect the tourism sector (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research
Organisation)
Table 25-8. This is a very complex figure, particularly the narrow/thick/multiple horizontal bars. Consider simplifying if possible.\n\n
(NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8. It is possibly confusing to refer to very high risk in fully adapted state. Suggest clearly stating what the hypothetical fully
adapted state refers to. It is tempting to interpret it as ‘risks reduced to very low’.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8. Top row, last column. Not clear what the evidence is for (lack of) genetic adaptation in corals\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
Table 25.3 Coral Reefs; the De'ath et al (2009) datset covers the period 1900-2005; Also note that a "correction" to this paper is "in
press" in Science - this will ammend the decline of 14.2% from 1990-2005 to 11.1% - the significance of the decline remains the same.
(Lough, Janice, Australian Institute of Marine Science)
Table 25-4: Three of the entries in the table are not clear about whether they apply to Australia, to New Zealand or to both countries.
These are the entries about Pheidole megacephala, Queensland fruit fly, and Fusarium psuedograminearum (NEW ZEALAND)
Table 25-8. Top row, last column. Technical Summary does not mention options from Chapter 25: translocation, shading,
forecasting\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8. Second row, last column. Text makes it sound as if predator control is a stress. Reword to "pests and diseases, predator
control and". \n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8. Third row, last column. Not clear what the evidence is for trade-offs between different (wildfire) management objectives
and settlement patterns and goals\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8. Fourth row, last column. "Unlimited water demand" might be misleading. Suggest rewording to "very high water demand"
or similar.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8. Fifth row, last column. Not clear what the evidence is for transport and power infrastructure already being at coping limit in
many regions, or that there are significant financial costs from future upgrades. \n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8 contains inconsistencies as noted in other comments\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Table 25-8: Clear and helpful, thanks. (NEW ZEALAND)
Figure 25-1. CRU needs defining? (AUSTRALIA)
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Figure 25-3. Grey (rather than white) areas are where models agree on change but not direction? (AUSTRALIA)
Figure 25-3 Comment: Similar information is being relayed in Figures 25-1 and 25-3. What is the utility of having both figures? Also, the
four boxes of Figure 25-3 are not clearly explained in the caption. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Figure 25-3 Comment: The detail on this figure is lost, the dots and carets are not distinguishable at this resolution. (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
need to explain what djf, mam, jja and son mean in the caption. How many models were used in the multi-model mean? Are they the
same models as in Figure 25-1? (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
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Government and Expert Review
Comment
Figure 25-1: The explanation of the figure is very difficult to understand. From a policy-makers perspective the text needs to be much
clearer if the figure is to be of any use in a policy context. (NEW ZEALAND)
Figure 25-1 Comment: The projection used for this figure is a poor choice. NZ details are obscured and viewed at too low an angle.
Consider revising this figure to use the same projection as Figure 25-3, both for consistency and for better understanding. (UNITED
STATES OF AMERICA)
Figure 25-2 Comment: This figure is very difficult to interpret. There is not enough contrast between the color used, the detail is too
small to be seen clearly, and overall there is probably too much information on one chart to make a point definitively. Find a way to
separate the lines more obviously, or split this out into multiple charts. (UNITED STATES OF AMERICA)
Figure 25-4. The baseline for the 1°C global average warming and 2°C global average warming should be specified--preindustrial?
(Mach, Katharine, IPCC WGII TSU)
how many models were used? (Hennessy, Kevin, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation)
It would be nice to see similar maps of NZ (NEW ZEALAND)
F25-5. This is a very complex figure. Consider simplifying / choosing a simpler alternative if possible.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
F25-5. It is not clear what a "statistical local area" is.\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Figure 25-3 Comment: The figure caption should include the definitions of the abbreviations used in the bar graph (UNITED STATES OF
AMERICA)
F25-6. Consider relabelling bottom panel "Adaptation Pathways"\n\n (NETHERLANDS)
Figure 25-6: It remains unclear why the adaptive space is widening in time (along the adaptation pathway). We think it should shrink.
Please insert a dimensionless time bar below the figure to show the time dependency of the process. Ratio: In accordance to Chapter
16, p.2 l.43-44 as well as Figures 22-7 and 26-6 the adaptation corridor should shrink in time as adaptation limits are a result of
interaction between climate change and biophysical and socioeconomic constraints. If climate change likely aggravates at least during
the era of climate responsibility the potential for adaptation to reduce risks will decrease or in other words the adaptive space may
narrow. Figures 22-7 and 26-6 illustrate this narrowing by clear adaptation limits in a 4°-world in a lot of sectors. (GERMANY)
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