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TheroleoftheSouthernOcean inEarthSystemmodelling N.Goris1([email protected]),C.Heinze1,2,andtherestoftheEVA-team 1.Uni ResearchClimate,Bjerknes CentreforClimateResearch,Norway 2.GeophysicalInstitute,UniversityofBergen,Norway Outline § Introduction: § EarthSystemModelsandtheirimportance § Norway´srole inEarthSystem Modelling § TheroleoftheSouthernOceaninEarthSystemModelling § TheimportanceoftheSouthernOceanfortheEarthSystem § ChallengesandperformanceofEarthSystemModelsintheSouthern Ocean § ModellingthecarbonuptakeoftheSouthernOcean § SummaryandConclusions Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 EarthSystemModelsandtheirimportance § EarthSystemModels(ESMs)havebeendevelopedtounderstandEarth´s changingclimate(topredictlong-termchangeandvariability) ATMOSPHERE LAND ICE OCEAN @NOAA @Paul Grabhorn, UCAR Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 EarthSystemModelsandtheirimportance § Mainchallenges associatedwithESMs: § SinceESMsarecomputationallyveryexpensive,theyrunonarelatively coarsemodelgrid(ca.0.5degreehorizontalresolution:~50km) § SparseobservationsoftheEarthSystem(verification/understanding) § EarthSystemModels(ESMs)representagriddedandsimplified versionofreality § Currently,ESMsrepresentthebestestimateofthelong-termfuture § TheIPCC utilizesESMstoassessthefutureimpactsofclimatechange: § “Thesemodelsprovidethemostcomprehensivetoolsavailablefor simulatingpastandfutureresponseoftheclimatesystemtoexternal forcing,inwhichbiogeochemicalfeedbacksplayanimportantrole”. Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 EarthSystemModelsandtheirimportance § Mainchallenges associatedwithESMs: § SinceESMsarecomputationallyveryexpensive,theyrunonarelatively coarsemodelgrid(ca.0.5degreehorizontalresolution:~50km) § SparseobservationsoftheEarthSystem(verification/understanding) § EarthSystemModels(ESMs)representagriddedandsimplified versionofreality § Currently,ESMsrepresentthebestestimateofthelong-termfuture § TheIPCC utilizesESMstoassessthefutureimpactsofclimatechange: § “EarthSystemmodelsarebasedonphysicalprinciples,andtheyreproducemanyimportantaspectsofobservedclimate.Bothaspectscontribute toourconfidenceinthemodels’suitabilityfortheirapplicationfor quantitativefuturepredictionsandprojections.” Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 Norway´srole inEarthSystemModelling § 23climatemodelinggroupsfromaroundtheworldparticipateinIPCCsAR5 withoneormoreESM,outofthem4Europeanmodellinggroups(Germany, France,Italy,Norway) Norwayisanimportantplayerinthe EarthSystemModelCommunity! Norway´srole inEarthSystemModelling § TheNorwegianEarthSystemModel(NorESM)… § ...isdevelopedandmaintainedby: § UniversityofBergen,Uni ResearchClimate,NansenEnvironmentaland RemoteSensingCenter,Bergen § UniversityofOslo,NorwegianMeteorologicalInstitute,Centerfor InternationalClimateandEnvironmentalResearch,Oslo § NorwegianInstituteforAirResearch,Kjeller § …withfundingfromtheNorwegianResearchCouncilthroughtheproject EarthsystemmodellingofclimateVariationsintheAnthropocene(EVA) Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 TheroleoftheSouthernOceaninEarthSystemModelling Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 TheimportanceoftheSouthernOceanfortheEarthSystem TheglobaloceanhelpsregulatingtheEarth´sclimatevia § uptakeofCO2 andheat TheSouthernOcean(southof30S)accountsfor § 43% ± 3%(42± 5PgC)ofanthropogenicCO2uptake § 75% ± 22%(23± 9× 1022 J)ofheatuptake overthehistoricalperiod(1850-2005),thoughonlyoccupying30%oftheocean surfacearea. (resultsfromanEarthSystemModelling studybyFrölicher,2014) TheimportanceoftheSouthern OceanforheatandCO2 uptakeis alsoconfirmedbyobservationbasedestimates. Cumulativeanthr.CO2 uptake(2008, mol/m2) @Khatiwala, 2009 TheimportanceoftheSouthernOceanfortheEarthSystem Regionsofdeepwaterformation areofgreatimportancefortheuptakeofCO2 andheatbecausetheyareapathwaytotheinteriorocean,whereCO2 andheat canentertheinterior oceanandbestored ina vastvolume. Thelargescaleoceancirculation TheSouthernOceanisacriticalpartoftheclimatesystemasitis § themaindeepwatersource § connectingtheoceanbasins § theprimaryreturnpathwayfordeepwaterto thesurface Teleconnections Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 TheimportanceoftheSouthernOceanfortheEarthSystem Regionsofdeepwaterformation areofgreatimportancefortheuptakeofCO2 andheatbecausetheyareapathwaytotheinteriorocean,whereCO2 andheat canentertheinterior oceanandbestored ina vastvolume. Thelargescaleoceancirculation TheSouthernOceanisacriticalpartoftheclimatesystemasitis § AnyimpactthatclimatechangemayhaveontheSouthernOceanwould § connectingtheoceanbasins haveimpactswellbeyondthehighsouthernlatitudes Tele§ themaindeepwatersource connections EarthSystemModelsareneededtoassesspossiblefutureimpacts §§ theprimaryreturnpathwayfordeepwaterto thesurface Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 ChallengesforEarthSystemModels Theuniqueheatandcarbon uptakeoftheSouthernOceanis basedonacombinationof § Persistentandpowerful westerlywinds § Strongsurfacefluxesofheat andfreshwater Complexandfine-scale interactions between atmosphere,cryosphere and theocean Challengefor EarthSystemModels! @TheNationalAcademyofScience Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 PerformancesofEarthSystemModels § Significantinter-modelvariabilityinthehistoricalsimulationformanymetrics § especiallyproblematic:SeaIceandAntarcticCircumpolarCurrenttransport § PrimarycausesforproblemswithSeaIce:smallscaleprocesses,simulating highlatitudewinds,oceanheatadvectionandmixing @IPCC,2013 Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 ChallengesandperformancesofEarthSystemModels § Significantinter-modelvariabilityinthehistoricalsimulationformanymetrics § especiallyproblematic:SeaIceandAntarcticCircumpolarCurrenttransport § PrimarycausesforproblemswithSeaIce:smallscaleprocesses,simulating highlatitudewinds,oceanheatadvectionandmixing @IPCC,2007 Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 ChallengesandperformancesofEarthSystemModels § Significantinter-modelvariabilityinthehistoricalsimulationformanymetrics § especiallyproblematic:SeaIceandAntarcticCircumpolarCurrenttransport § PrimarycausesforproblemswithSeaIce:smallscaleprocesses,simulating highlatitudewinds,oceanheatadvectionandmixing § SignificantImprovementfromCMIP3(year2007)toCMIP5(year2013) @IPCC,2013 Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 ModellingthecarbonuptakeoftheSouthernOcean § ModellingthecarbonuptakeoftheSouthernOceanischallengingasit dependsontheaccuraterepresentationofmanyphysical&biogeochemical processes Dongetal,2016: (studywith22CMIP5models) § globaldistributionofCO2 uptakeis reasonable § maindifferencesbetweenmodels andobservationallybasedresults existinregionswithstrongvertical movement. § …tobetterdepicttheSouthern Ocean…isimportantforimproving thesimulationofglobalair–sea CO2-flux. @Shuang Gao,GFIBergen Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 ModellingthecarbonuptakeoftheSouthernOcean KesslerandTjiputra,2016: § EarthSystemModelsshowaconnectionbetweenthepresentCO2 uptakein theSouthernOceanandthefutureglobalCO2 uptake: CMIP5-modelsthattakeuptoolittlecarbonintheSouthernOceantoday exhibitalowglobal carbonuptakeattheendofthe21stcenturyandvice versa theCO2 uptakeintheSouthernOceanconstrainsfutureglobalCO2uptake @NadineGoris, Uni Research Antarktisseminar,@NadineGoris, Tromsø, 10.-11. Uni MayResearch 2016 Summary § EarthSystemModelsarethestate-of-the-arttooltoassesstheimpactof climatechange § TheSouthernOceanisofgreatimportance fortheEarthSystem´sabilityto mitigateclimatechange § ModellingtheSouthernOceanischallengingduetocomplexandfine-scale interactions betweenatmosphere,cryosphere andtheocean § TheEarthSystemModelsthatparticipatedinCMIP5exhibitproblemsin accuratelymodellingtheSouthernOcean:theyshowsignificantinter-model variabilityandbiases § EarthSystemModelshaveclearlyprogressedandshowamuchbetter performanceintheSouthernOceanthanintheydidinCMIP3 § FurtherdevelopmentofESMsisurgentlyneededfortheSouthernOcean § Forthisdevelopment,amoreextendedmonitoringoftheSouthernOcean isessential Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016 Outlookandfurtherinformation § PosterofDetelina Ivanova:SouthernOceanCirculationandSeaIceinthe NorwegianEarthSystemModel(NorESM) § PresentationsfromSvein Østerhus andElinDarelius Antarktisseminar, Tromsø, 10.-11. May 2016
