Download 3.4Bernard-Value_Slides

Should IOCCG perform an economic value
assessment of global OC constellation?
What interest/value do we see in making an economically quantified
science benefit statement on the OCR-VC? Who would we be aiming it
at?
Would it be doable/viable to produce some fairly short piece
estimating the global economic value of OCR across the
oceanic/climate change/carbon economy through to ecosystem
services in the coastal and inland domains?
Publishable in e.g Environmental Science & Policy or Space Policy?
Useful, marginal, or fairground barker snake oil?
“….The state of the art in understanding the VOI reflects general agreement on how to model an
individual’s or a government’s decision and some useful implications about the value of information: when
it is most and least valuable, its relationship to subjective prior opinions, and the decision maker’s ability
to take action in light of the information. The VOI can be nil if, say, a decision maker cannot take action
even if good information is available. The VOI can be quite large if the decision maker can take action—
saving lives, increasing productivity, and so forth…..”
EO & Service Value Study Examples
Europe
• GMES (2011). “Cost-Benefit Analysis for GMES”, European Commission: Directorate-General for Enterprise & Industry,
September 2011 http://copernicus.eu/pages-principales/library/study-reports/
• Socio-Economic Benefits from the Use of Earth Observation Report from the International Workshop held at Joint
Research Centre, Ispra. 11-13 July 2011. M. T. Borzacchiello and M. Craglia Institute for Environment and Sustainability
USA
• Adams, Rich,Martin Brown, Charlie Colgan, Nic Flemming, Hauke Kite-Powell, Bruce McCarl,Jim Mjelde, Andy Solow, Tom
Teisberg, Rodney Weiher. “The Economics of Sustained Ocean Observations: Benefits and Rationale for Public Funding”, A
Joint Publication of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the Office of Naval Research, August 2000
http://www.publicaffairs.noaa.gov/worldsummit/pdfs/isoos.pdf
• WHOI-2005-3. (2005) Estimating the Economic Benefits of Regional Ocean Observing Systems, Woods Hole Oceanog. Inst.
Tech. Rept, WHOI-2005-03.
• Landsat economic value study 2015
India
• NCAER (2010) "Impact Assessment and Economic Benefits of Weather and Marine Services", National Council of Applied
Economic Research (NCAER), New Delhi,
India.http://www.ncaer.org/popuppages/PublicationDetails.aspx?ReferenceID=SE100004
Australia
• ATSE (2006). The Economics of Australia’s Sustained Ocean Observation System, Benefits and Rationale for Public Funding,
Report for the Australian Academy of Technological Sciences and Engineering and the Western Australian Global Ocean
Observing System Inc.. August 2006.
• CRC-SI, 2010. The economic value of earth observation from space. A review of the value to Australia of Earth observation
from space. Prepared for the Cooperative Research Centre for Spatial Information (CRC-SI) and Geoscience Australia
Application & Domain Value Study Examples
Noone et al 2012: Valuing the Ocean
Application & Domain Value Study Examples
Application & Domain Value Study Examples
The Bigger Picture: The Economic Costs of Declining Water Quality
In freshwater systems, potential total eutrophication-related losses in the
United States are estimated at up to US$4.6 billion annually (Dodds et al,
2009). The 1998 season of cyanobacterial blooms in the Lake Tai
catchment (China) resulted in estimated economic losses of US$6.5 billion
(Le et al., 2010); annual costs of freshwater algal blooms in Australia were
estimated at ±A$200 million in 2000 (Atech, 2000), with similar annual
eutrophication costs in the United Kingdom estimated at ±US$150 million
(Pretty et al., 2003) and in South Africa at ±US$250 million (Frost and
Sullivan, 2010).
Global economic losses due to pollution, eutrophication and declining
water quality have been estimated at ± US$6 - 10 billion (OECD 2012)
Taking a typical Value of Information estimate of maximum 1% (Macauley,
2006) of the value of the “resource” – in this case eutrophication related
economic loss, a global Water Quality observation system could be valued
at up to ± US$50 - 100 million pa….
3-Day
Forecast
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InterAnnual
Outlook
Seasonal
Projectn
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BENEFITS OF IMPROVED
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE PREDICTABILITY
Climate
Change
5
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6
Log10 (Time in Days)
CO2 emissions policy
Climate prediction
Energy forecasts
Coastal protection
Facilities planning
Agricultural projections
Fisheries utilisation
Energy management
Transportation planning
Land management
Safety warnings and hazard prevention
Fishing operations
Ship routeing
Offshore oil and gas operations
Search and rescue
Environmental protection
Defence
Fig. 3: In the early days of GOOS planning
Dana Kester made this presentation of the
timescale of different kinds of predictability,
and the activities and services which would
benefit. (Adapted from Dana Kester 1993).
Each activity is linked to a timescale of
prediction which is most relevant to it in
terms of needs and benefits.
Climate Change
Basin
Scale
Ecosystem Services
Ocean Ecology &
Diversity
Carbon
Economy
Fisheries Support & Management
Aquaculture
100m
Water Quality & Eutrophication
Operational Services
Near Real TIme
Decades
IOCCG Report Number 7, 2008
Why Ocean Colour? The Societal Benefits of Ocean- Colour Technology
3 Ocean-Colour Data - An Aid to Modelling
4 Ocean-Colour Radiometry and Ocean Physics
5 Biogeochemical Cycles
6 Ocean-Colour Radiometry and Fisheries
7 Ocean-Colour Radiometry and Water Quality
8 A Window on the State of the Marine Ecosystem
9 Hazards: Natural and Man-Made
10 Ocean Colour and Climate Change
Should IOCCG perform an economic value
assessment of global OC constellation?
Perhaps possible to use mixture of approaches:
1) Showcase application range through short regional case studies
with global scaling and VOI economics based on actionable data
e.g. 1% of a change/damage/impact figure
2) Use global carbon and ecosystem service figures and apply some
range of VOI figures
Applications-grounded approach allows combination of traditional
OCR showcasing with some value numbers attached, the economic
arguments are log-scale, not precision i.e. primary intent is to show
value order of magnitude > than mission costs….