Download "When the well`s dry, we know the worth of water" this quote is

‘Snippetts Plus’
Edition 39 – May - 2009
“A Nation that fails to plan intelligently for the development and protection of its precious waters will be condemned to wither
because of shortsightedness. The hard lessons of history are clear, written on the deserted sands and ruins of once proud
civilisations.” Lyndon B. Johnson, 36th President of the United States of America.
"When the well's dry, we know the worth of water" this quote is credited to noted 18th century polymath Benjamin Franklin.
Date item sourced will be bold in black – Where item sourced from will also be bold and the headline will continue as is bold green
underlined. Drought still ravages much of Australia and the inflows into the Murray-Darling Basin are decreasing so the supply within
the Basin and to places that source water from the Basin is struggling to be met and on top of that we have a Global economy sliding into
recession and the predictions of ‘climate change’. Irrespective of the above, selfishness and an Un-Australian culture are thriving. If we
across the Basin do not force, especially Local Government, and then our Federal and State Governments to show leadership what hope
have we got?
The beginning of the 3rd year.
39
1st
FarmOnLine - Life after MIS: How to reclaim bluegum country
Returning land to agriculture after blue gums will cost at least $1200 per hectare, roughly $500 an acre. The living proof that
it can be done profitably can be found north of Heywood, Vic, where Ian and Barbara Jeffries now graze cattle on slightly
mounded and well-mulched sandy country, reclaimed from blue gums. “A lot of people have said it couldn’t be done but it
can be and this is the proof, I daresay a lot more people will be thinking about this now with the demise of Timbercorp and
perhaps the others, it certainly presents an opportunity at the right price”, he said.
Not only have the pair rehabilitated land from blue gums but they also made money from the trees as well. In 1996 they
planted 38 hectares of blue gums after clearing two scrub paddocks. The soil type is largely sand over clay, with some iron
buckshot on the rises. They planted just before the avalanche of plantings across the south west of the state. In March last
year they harvested the trees and chipped them on site, yielding 8420 tonnes in total. At $38/tonne at the stump the pair was
more than happy with the return.
Returning the land from a mass of stumps, bark and sticks was always going to be a challenge but it was one they took on
with gusto. Ripping stumps out with the roots is something Mr Jeffries strongly advises not to do. “I did a few like that and
not only do you create a hell of a mess but it brought the heavy clay up to the surface and the massive holes left behind are
terrible – a no go.” Working part time at Mibus Brothers earthworks and having owned the Bison engineering firm, Mr
Jeffries was well placed to access the right gear. A forest Mulcher came to the site in early winter and took the stumps back to
ground level after three passes.
There was minimal coppicing due to the time of year this occurred and it has been no trouble spraying the coppices since.
“If we were to do the same again, we would find a machine capable of mulching a few inches below the surface, thus leaving
behind more arable country”, he said. Mulching cost $26,000 including GST, this equates to $684/ha or $325 an acre. A
pinwheel stick rake, complete with spring-loaded fingers did a wonderful job of windrowing bark, stick and branches. The
windrows were pushed up and burnt every 50 mtrs along the row. Max Grant, mulching contractor from Penola was a great
help in the process, having also reclaimed some blue gum land himself.
The rake also served to harrow between the stumps and in one paddock Mr Jeffries has ploughed the soil in an attempt to lift
it back up level with the mounding. After many fires the country was harrowed between the stumps and was ready to be
fertilized and sown. Given the stumps are close to the surface this could only be done by a traditional super spreader and
annual ryegrass and clover seed was placed in with the fertiliser. The rates were 2.5 tons of lime/ha, 300kg single super/ha,
40kg MOP/ha, 20kg/ha Winter Star Annual Rye and 6kg/ha Balansa Annual Clover. The total cost of seed and super was
$23,100 including GST, equating to $608/ha or $289/acre.
By spring the annual ryegrass and clover were knee high, a result that amazed the Jeffries given the general expectation that
blue gums “rape the soil of fertility.” Whilst the ground is a little rough to travel across now, he expects to be able to level it
in four years time, once the stumps and roots have decomposed. That he has been able to return land to farming within a few
months is significant, but nothing out of the ordinary for this area, as it was his forefathers that did it not long after they chose
the area in the early 1800s. Sadly part of that history was bulldozed to make way for a few extra trees when his brother sold
to Great Southern. But history is now repeating and Mr Jeffries is on the lookout for opportunities. “I’ve spoken to a lot of
farmers who are interested in buying blue gum country and they all say they would buy at $1000 an acre and I would also buy
tomorrow if that was the case but we just don’t know what the price will be. "There are a lot of uncertainties about what is to
happen now. "Hopefully I have shown that it is certainly possible to reclaim”.
Feds must wrest Water Plan from delinquent states...now
In the wake of today’s failure by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) to progress the Federal Government’s
‘Water for the Future’ plan, the National Farmers’ Federation (NFF) is calling on the Federal Government to now take
control of the national water reform agenda. “The states have proven, yet again, that they are incapable of getting the job
done,” NFF Water Taskforce chair Laurie Arthur said. “We must not forget that the Federal Government provided hundreds
of millions of dollars to the states as an inducement for them to sign up to the Water Plan.
“Instead, it’s time the Federal Government used that money to invest directly in achieving water efficiencies through a
delivery system and on-farm upgrades.
2
“Farmers, indeed all Australians, now need the Federal Government to seize the initiative in the lead up to its May Budget,
and work directly with farmers, irrigators and regional communities to invest in vital infrastructure works that matter on the
ground. “No less will keep its flagging Water Plan alive," he said. “The farm sector is ‘shovel ready’ for the on-farm
infrastructure necessary to achieve water savings. "We have put detailed proposals to the Federal Government and we now
call on it to assume responsibility for direct delivery, without the states.
“Such a move would be a legitimate investment in water security, provide more water for environmental flows, and create
tangible economic benefits in terms of jobs and economic growth in the short-term, as well as long-term nation-building
infrastructure. “Water buy-back alone is not a solution. "In fact, without regional and on-farm upgrades complementing buyback, it only exacerbates the difficulties faced by farmers, entire regional communities and the environmental health of our
rivers. “Leadership is now demanded and cannot be stalled any longer. “Farmers are ready to partner with the Government to
produce more food and fibre with less water and, in doing so, return more water to the environment.
"But the Government needs to invest directly with farmers and regional Australia if we are to transform the way water is used
in this country. “It’s time for the Federal Government to get it done.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601086&sid=akYBOI5KXz2c&refer=news
Bloomberg – USA - Argentina to Plant Smallest Wheat Crop on Record
April 29 (Bloomberg) -- Argentina will plant the smallest wheat crop on record because of drought and export restrictions,
the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said. Planting will fall as low as 3.7 million hectares (9.14 million acres) this year, the
exchange said today in an e-mailed statement. That would be the smallest since the exchange began recording such data in
1910, it said. “If we continue to get dry weather and the government continues with its policies of not offering any
concessions to farmers then we could fall as low as 3 million hectares,” Pablo Adreani, a Buenos Aires-based analyst at
Agripac Consultores, said today in a telephone interview.
The exchange today lowered its soybean harvest estimate to 34 million metric tons, down from a previous 36.2 million tons,
on smaller yields in Buenos Aires province. Argentina is the world’s third-largest soybean grower behind the U.S. and Brazil.
Farmers harvested 8.3 million metric tons of wheat earlier this year, less than half the prior year, after the worst drought in
half a century, according to the Agriculture Secretariat. This year’s planted area will be 18.6 percent less than a year ago, the
exchange said today. Adreani forecasts this year’s soybean harvest will fall to 32 million metric tons because of drought
damage.
Farmers are cutting costs because of a yearlong drought, a lack of capital and government policies that restrict exports,
Adreani said. Domestic Inventory: The government taxes wheat at 28 percent and restricts exports to provide sufficient
supplies to the domestic milling industry, the Rosario Board of Trade has said. Farmers are finding it “impossible” to receive
export permits because of a lack of available domestic produce, the Rosario exchange said in its weekly report published
April 22. Most of Argentina’s soybeans trade at the exchange in Rosario, located in the eastern part of the country.
The cereals exchange forecast three more months of dry weather in its weekly weather report today. Soil erosion is occurring
in southern Buenos Aires and La Pampas provinces, causing an “ecological disaster,” the exchange said. The cereals
exchange left its forecast for this year’s corn harvest unchanged at 13 million tons. Argentina was the world’s second-largest
corn exporter last year behind the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
http://en.mercopress.com/2009/04/30/smallest-wheat-crop-since-1910-forecasted-for-argentina
Smallest wheat crop since 1910 forecasted for Argentina — MercoPress
Argentina is forecasted to plant the smallest wheat crop on record because of drought and export restrictions, according to the
Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange. Planting will fall as low as 3.7 million hectares this fall that would be the smallest since the
Exchange began recording such data in 1910.
http://www.tcpalm.com/news/2009/apr/30/drought-raises-lake-o-stakes/
Sebastian Sun - Sebastian, FL, USA - Drought raises Lake O stakes
West Palm Beach - We're nearing the end of the driest dry season on record. Since the start of the season, which runs from
November through late May, only 4.47 inches of rain have fallen across South and Central Florida - less than in any other dry
season since records began in 1932, the South Florida Water Management District said. Scarce rains are raising the stakes in
the debate over how to divvy up the water in Lake Okeechobee, the backup water supply for millions of people.
Some people raise even more fundamental questions about the region's precarious water supply - drawing comparisons to the
floods of 1947 and the drought of 1971, the two keystone events that led to the creation of the state's system for managing
water. "The question is: Is this drought one of these opportunities for change?" Lance Gunderson, environmental studies
professor at Emory University, asked Monday in a presentation to the Community Foundation for Palm Beach and Martin
Counties. Total rain this season is 69 percent below average across the region. Eastern Palm Beach County has been only
slightly wetter, receiving about 7.4 inches since Nov. 1, or 63 percent less than average. Martin and St. Lucie counties are 64
percent below average.
"It's been bone-dry all over," said Dean Powell, the district's director of watershed management. Water managers warn that if
the wet season arrives late or with only light rain, Lake Okeechobee could be essential to keeping faucets running along the
east coast. Adding to the demands, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers this morning will resume tapping the lake, sending
water down the Caloosahatchee River for 11 days. Lee County leaders have demanded the releases to keep salt water from
creeping up the estuary.
3
In a conference call last week, water managers told the corps they would not object to continued releases. The lake was 11.33
feet above sea level Monday and is falling about a quarter-foot per week. If the rainy season "gets delayed or we get belownormal rain, the decision to release to the Caloosahatchee isn't going to look so smart," said Powell. "It's a really close call."
Water problems will not go away, said Gunderson, noting that Florida's fitful climate brings extremes of drought and flood
every five to 10 years.
He warned that in 20 to 30 years, the region could either experience dry wells, waste millions of dollars cleaning and
desalinizing water, experience large population declines or, just maybe, turn to greener solutions. "Probably not one of these
is going to happen," he said. "But some combination is going to happen."
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2009/apr/29/bn29drought-vista-water/?northcounty&zIndex=90911
San Diego Union Tribune - San Diego, CA, USA - Vista Irrigation District declares Level 2 drought
The Vista Irrigation District on Wednesday declared a Level 2 Drought Alert, which limits outdoor watering to certain days
and times, with mandatory water-conservation measures to begin June 1. The district provides water service to more than
123,000 people in the city of Vista and portions of San Marcos, Escondido, Oceanside, and unincorporated areas of San
Diego County. The move falls in line with action by the San Diego County Water Authority, which recently told its 24
member agencies that starting July 1 there will be a 20 percent reduction in water supplied.
Earlier this week, the Padre Dam Municipal Water District and the Fallbrook Water District approved Level 2 drought
declarations. Padre Dam serves more than 100,000 residents from Santee to Alpine. Specifics will vary by water district.
http://www.sanmarcosrecord.com/local/local_story_119105539.html
San Marcos Daily Record - San Marcos, TX, USA - Drought restrictions
Spring flow triggers set off conservation alarms here. San Marcos - Don’t let that drenching rainfall of recent days fool you,
its still plenty dry around these parts. So much so that San Marcos on Tuesday entered Stage 1 drought restrictions. The move
comes in response to the Edwards Aquifer Authority’s (EAA) declaration of stage restrictions on Monday due to low spring
flows at San Marcos springs. Both the EAA and city enter Stage 1 when spring flows and/or index well levels fall below
designated triggers.
The triggers for Stage 1 occur when the 10-day average J17 index well level falls below 660 feet above mean sea level or
when the 10 day average flow rate at San Marcos springs falls below 96 cubic feet per second (cfs).
On Tuesday, the San Marcos springs were flowing at 94 cfs, with a 10-day average of 94.1 cfs. Last year at this time the
springs were running at 154 cfs. The historical average for April is 176 cfs. “We have been monitoring spring flows closely
over the past few months and have had a few well-timed rains that delayed stage restrictions in spite of the serious drought,”
said Tom Taggart, director of the city’s Public Services Department. “Unfortunately, recent rains have not significantly
affected the recharge zone.”
The city receives 75 percent of its water supply from Canyon Lake and 25 percent from the Edwards Aquifer. Under EAA
rules, aquifer pumpers are required to reduce water usage by 20 percent during Stage 1 restrictions.
City of San Marcos: - Stage 1 restrictions include:
• Waste of water is prohibited. • Irrigation with sprinklers and automatic sprinkler irrigation systems is allowed only one day
per week on the designated weekday between the hours of midnight to 10 a.m. and 8 p.m. to midnight. The designated
weekday is as follows: • Monday for addresses ending in 0 or 1. • Tuesday for addresses ending in 2 or 3. • Wednesday for
addresses ending in 4 or 5. • Thursday for addresses ending in 6 or 7. • Friday for addresses ending in 8 or 9. • Hand watering
and irrigating with a soaker hose or drip irrigation system is allowed any day and any time. Hand watering must be done
using either a hand-held bucket or a hand-held hose equipped with a positive shutoff device. • At-home car washing is
allowed only one day per week on the designated weekday, and must be done using either a hand-held bucket or a hand-held
hose equipped with a positive shutoff device. • Swimming pools located outdoors must have at least 25 percent of the water
surface area covered when not in use. Maybe we could learn something about preservation. • Filling of new decorative water
features is prohibited. • Washing of impervious surfaces is prohibited unless required for health and safety use. • Foundation
watering is allowed any day and at any time. • Restaurants are allowed to serve water only upon request. • All other nonessential water uses must be is limited.
http://sansteknologi.blogspot.com/2009/04/relationship-of-indonesian-drought-and.html
By HouwLiong - Sains, Filsafat Sains dan Teknologi (Science, Philosophy of Science ...
Drought periods in the Indonesian maritime continent are affected by ENSO (El Niño – Southern Oscillation) events at the
equatorial Pacific and the west coast of South America. During June to September 1997, many areas of Indonesia located
mainly south of the equator and near Australian Continent suffered lack of sufficient water to meet requirement i. e. less than
60 mm per month. ENSO affects the activity of rainfall mainly in the eastern part rather than in the western part of the
Indonesian maritime continent. The amount of rainfall in the ENSO event of 1997 is less, on the contrary the number of
drought area is greater then that in the pre and post – ENSO events. Average dry pentad probability knowing the preceding
two dry pentads increases from 15th pentad up to 50th pentad.
http://aquafornia.com/archives/8417
By Aqua Blog Maven - Guest commentary: Contra Costa report on peripheral canal is ...
From the Pasadena Sub-Rosa blog, submitted directly to Aquafornia, here’s a rebuttal commentary to the article posted
earlier this week in the Contra Costa Times, titled “Peripheral Canal No Drought Lifeline, Contra Costa Water District
Finds”, which says in essence, A $10 billion plan to build a canal around the Delta would not deliver significantly more water
to cities and farms if it were in place this year, new data shows.
Water agencies and politicians from Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger on down have repeatedly stressed that water shortages this
year from the Bay Area to San Diego prove the need for such a canal. It would divert water around the Delta for delivery to
farms and cities. But numbers developed by a state-run planning group seeking to build the canal show it would not deliver
more water in dry years, the Contra Costa Water District stated this week.
This commentary was written by David O. Powell, B.S. Civil Engineering, Cal-Tech; former U.S. Army Corps of Engineers,
formerly California Dept. of Water Resources Chief Engineer of San Diego office; water and hydro-electric engineer with
Bechtel Corporation; Assistant Chief Engineer Alameda County Water District; Vice-President and Chief of Planning for
Bookman-Edmonston Engineering, Glendale, California; presently retired:
Distilled Newsletter
Water investments increase while water use falls
Urban water utilities boosted infrastructure investment by 41% while the average urban Australian used 12% less water,
according to the National Performance Report on urban water utilities. A parallel report shows rural water investment
increased 45% while water deliveries decreased by 36% because of drought.
Six new groundwater projects under way
Six new groundwater management projects have been announced, with total funding of $8.4 million, in Western Australia,
Northern Territory, New South Wales, Victoria and Tasmania.
Recycled water - a snapshot of reform
The use and regulation of recycled water has come a long way in recent years - less than 10 years ago it was illegal in many
cases to install a rainwater tank on a domestic house. Recycling by utilities was often experimental. Now it's a core part of
planning.
Australia's water reform story at World Water Forum
The Commission's General Manager Water Reform Group, Kerry Olsson, attended the 5th World Water Forum in Istanbul
during March and gave a presentation on water reform in Australia.
First meeting on community of practice for environmental water managers
The steering committee for this AWA-led Raising National Water Standards project met for the first time to design an
inaugural community of practice workshop for environmental managers, which will be held in Melbourne on 22-23 July.
ACCC advice on water charge rules - public consultation
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission has released a draft advice on water charge (infrastructure) rules.
Our website has a summary of the development of water charge, water market and water trading rules, and links to the
ACCC.
MDBA seeks river scientists
The Murray-Darling Basin Authority is recruiting members to an Audit Group that will provide reports on the progress of the
Sustainable Rivers Audit (SRA) and scientific leadership for the SRA Program.
Southern Basin water allocations remain unchanged – Once again I thought it was one Basin
Deputy Director General, Department of Water and Energy, David Harriss today said the water allocations in both the
Murray and Murrumbidgee valleys would remain unchanged. “The recent rain across the southern valleys has been a real
boost for morale and may be the beginning of the autumn break we have all been waiting for,” he said. Mr Harriss said that
while the rain has been most welcome and has started to wet up the catchment, the situation for the 2009/10-year in the
Murray and Murrumbidgee valleys remains very concerning.
“There is sufficient water available in both valleys to ensure that critical human needs can be met in 2009/10, and we are
setting aside any further inflows to ensure that we can meet conveyance losses, “Licence holders need to be aware that at this
stage not all carryover will be deliverable on 1 July, but if the rainfall continues there is a high probability that it will be
deliverable early in the irrigation season, “The delivery of carryover is a priority for NSW and we will continue to work
cooperatively with the other basin States to ensure that it is delivered as soon as possible,” he said.
Mr Harriss said that the Menindee Lakes contain much less water now than at this time last year being at 13 per cent of
capacity compared to 33 per cent at this time last year. “But even at this level, it will assure Broken Hill’s water supply for at
least 21 months and allow delivery of high security allocations and carryover in 2009/10.” Licence holders are reminded that
applications for all trades in NSW will close on 31 May 2009. Licence holders should also be aware that they will be limited
to 95 per cent of entitlement in the Murrumbidgee and 100 per cent of entitlement in the Murray. This includes carryover and
allocation. A full assessment will be carried out mid month with details available in the Murray and Murrumbidgee critical
water planning communiqués, available on the 15 May.
2nd
Winebiz | Daily Wine News
From late May, water markets across the southern Murray-Darling Basin will begin closing, with Murray Irrigation Limited
in New South Wales the first of the major Murray-connected markets to close. By the end of May, all New South Wales
markets in the southern Basin will be closed to temporary trading, with the exception of Western Murray Irrigation and
Murrumbidgee Irrigation, where internal trading will remain open until mid June. Victoria’s Goulburn-Murray Water and
Lower Murray Water have asked that all interstate trades be submitted by June 2 and within Victoria trades by June 16. In
South Australia, temporary trading will close for the season on June 30.
5
According to Waterfind, Australia’s only quality certified water broker, much of the water being bought into Victoria and
South Australia this year has come from New South Wales Murray and Murrumbidgee Rivers. Approximately 1093GL of
water is currently allocated to NSW high and general security water licences. When these markets close for the 2008–09
season, the volume of potential supply may decrease. Waterfind operations manager Dr. Mark Siebentritt says “temporary
water has traded for around the $350/ML mark since mid to late March.” “The market seems to have settled for the time
being between $340-$350/ML, however, we are still seeing some variability in prices outside this range.”
Many growers are already balancing their accounts in preparation for the season close, which may reduce the degree of last
minute water purchasing at the end of the season. Closing dates and carryover rules differ between New South Wales,
Victoria and South Australia, and can therefore have a varied impact on buying and selling behaviour across the market.
Dr. Siebentritt says it is important that growers are aware of the various rules and how those rules may affect their water
trading requirements in the final months of the 2008-09-season. For specific information on closing dates in your area,
contact Waterfind or your local water authority.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2009/04/30/MNDM17CBMV.DTL
San Francisco Chronicle - CA, USA - Low snow, reservoir levels force rationing
April's warm, dry weather melted the Sierra Nevada snowpack to two-thirds of normal, according to the last measure of the
season Thursday, as agencies serving cities and farms across California prepare to cut water use this summer. State officials
say this is shaping up to be the 10th-driest three-year period on record, based on the amount of melt-water expected to run
from the mountains and into streams and reservoirs this spring. A month ago, snowpack was 80 percent of normal. Now it is
66 percent, compared with 72 percent at this time last year.
"Normally, we would have kept more of (the snowpack), but April was sunny and windy, and so a lot of it melted into the
ground," said Elissa Lynn, chief meteorologist with the state Department of Water Resources, which conducts the winter
snow surveys. "We have the snowpack we're going to have." The precipitation that is forecast this weekend isn't expected to
add much to snow levels and reservoir levels hammered by three dry years in a row. Storage in Lake Shasta and Lake
Oroville, two of the largest reservoirs in the state, are at 76 percent and 70 percent of normal, respectively.
http://www.naplesnews.com/news/2009/apr/30/drought-watch-dry-season-set-record/
Naples Daily News - Naples, FL, USA - DROUGHT WATCH: Dry season set for record
Naples - In an effort to keep the public informed about the dry conditions gripping much of the state, the South Florida Water
Management District (SFWMD) is issuing the following latest conditions report. With no significant rain forecast for the
final day of the month, the 2008-2009 South Florida dry season ranks as the driest since record keeping began in 1932. The
1970-1971 dry season set the previous record as the driest through the end of April. The dry season typically runs from
November 1 through May 31. Water levels in the primary regional storage systems - the Water Conservation Areas and Lake
Okeechobee - continue to drop. A majority of water levels in wells monitored by the District also declined.
http://www.kitsapsun.com/news/2009/apr/30/drought-adds-urgency-to-kenyan-mans-trip-to/
Kitsap Sun - WA, United States - Drought Adds Urgency to Kenyan Man's Trip to Kitsap
Poulsbo - The photo on the screen shows a lush valley of acacia trees and tall grass where cattle graze and get fat. In another
picture, beautiful smiling women dressed in bright fabrics weave beaded necklaces. And in yet another, children run across a
playground chasing a homemade soccer ball. These are the images Joshua Santamo brings from his homeland on his annual
trip to show students in North Kitsap schools how his people, the Maasai of Kenya, live and thrive and learn. "When it rains,
it is as green as it is here in Washington," said Santamo, who first came to Kitsap County in 2006 through a connection with
members of Central Kitsap Presbyterian Church.
But on this trip his photos don't depict the reality of Kenya 2009. "No one takes photos when it's like this," said Santamo, the
headmaster of an elementary school in Maasailand in southeastern Kenya. Today, southern Kenya is wracked by drought.
Climate change has affected the country's annual rains. With no rain to grow grass, the cattle, so integral to the life of the
Maasai people, are dying. Grazing land is non-existent and the herding Maasai cannot keep their animals, which provide the
staples of milk and meat, alive. Even Santamo, an educator with a steady income, worries about the survival of his own
family, including his wife, Agnes, and four children, ages 12, 9, 6 and 3. Santamo lost two of his own cows last weekend; his
extended family, including his father and his father's four wives, are in serious trouble.
Santamo's trip to Poulsbo will be cut short this year so he can return home to care for his family and their animals. For now,
he is trying to raise $5,040 from his North Kitsap contacts to feed 14 families in his village, Kimuka, and the 450 students at
his school for the next few months. The money would provide for bags of corn seeds, beans and cooking oil. The food would
serve three purposes: bringing students who aren't coming regularly back to school; preventing students from going to work
to support their families; and preventing families from marrying off young girls who then aren't allowed to continue their
educations.
The Australian - US will lead climate fight: Clinton
US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton told envoys from 17 major economies meeting in Washington yesterday that the US is
ready to lead the fight against global climate change. President Barack Obama “and his entire administration are committed to
addressing this issue and we will act,” Clinton told delegates from major European countries, China, India, Indonesia and
other powers. “The United States is fully engaged and ready to lead and determined to make up for lost time both at home
and abroad,” she told a forum Obama set up to build political momentum for the climate talks in December in Copenhagen.
6
“The United States is no longer absent without leave,” she said alluding to widespread criticism that the preceding
administration of president George W. Bush played down the threat from climate change and failed to do much about it.
German Environment Minister Sigmar Gabriel hailed the US turnaround, saying he was glad “the Americans are no longer
standing aside but are participating actively in negotiations about climate protection”. “The atmosphere in the negotiations is
completely different from how it used to be under the previous US administration,” he said.
But he warned that the negotiations would be tough. “I don't expect a breakthrough before the UN conference in Copenhagen
in December,” he said. Carroll Muffett, campaigner for the environmental group Greenpeace, called for tougher action by
Obama and the US Congress to commit the US to reducing greenhouse gases. “It is very encouraging to see the president
really re-engaging and committing the US to be part of the answer,” he told AFP. “At the same time, what the US has brought
to the table remains woefully inadequate.” For Clinton, there is no dispute about the evidence behind climate change.
“We know climate change threatens lives and livelihoods. Desertification and rising sea levels generate increased competition
for food, water and resources,” said the chief US diplomat. “But we also have seen the dangers that these trends pose to the
stability of societies and governments. We see how this can breed conflict, unrest and forced migration,” she said.
“So no issue we face today has broader long term consequences or greater potential to alter the world for future generations,”
she asserted. The chief US diplomat said the US and its fellow participants must co-operate to work on new policy and new
technologies needed to resolve the global crisis.
In introducing Clinton, Todd Stern, the US special envoy on climate change, said: “We will be working hard because the
stakes are high and time is short.” The talks in Washington, which closed to the media after Clinton's speech, are among
several forums on the way to a UN meeting in Copenhagen in December aimed at sealing an international pact for curbing
greenhouse gases beyond 2012. That is when the obligations under the Kyoto Treaty - rejected by Obama's predecessor
George W. Bush - are set to expire and be replaced by the Copenhagen deal. The Bush administration maintained that Kyoto
would be too costly for US businesses to implement and called on developing countries to do more.
Country of contrasts
A cold weather outbreak this week broke records across the southeast as one of the most intense Bass Strait low-pressure
systems in the past decade brought an early taste of winter. National Climate Centre climatologist Blair Trewin said, "The
persistence of the cold air was exceptional". "Melbourne had four days below 15C, Canberra had four days below 15C and
Hobart had three days below 12C," he said. "In all three cases, you'd have to go back to the 1940s and 50s to find longer runs
of cold days in April." The Bass Strait low, with pressure of 952 hectopascals, and a following high were slow in moving
east, allowing the southerly air to settle and cool.
In the past week, nighttime temperatures were up to 4C below normal in central Queensland. Tuesday morning's minimum of
8.2C at Brisbane Airport was 8.7C below the April norm. That morning, Longreach and Charleville recorded minimums 6.8C
and 8.1C below average. In Tasmania, Flinders Island Airport recorded April records of 0C on Wednesday and -0.3C on
Thursday. Launceston recorded a historic first for the month - three consecutive negative minimums of -0.3C, -0.5C and 0.6C from Tuesday to Thursday. Victoria's Mt Hotham recorded its lowest April minimum, -8.2C, on Wednesday and from
Sunday to Thursday had five days with sub-zero maximums.
NSW's Charlotte Pass (-13C) also broke a record on Wednesday. Up to 20cm of snow fell over the Victorian and NSW high
country at the weekend. Nationally, the average temperature for April was 0.49C above average and there were more areas
with below-average rainfall than with above average. Central and southeast Queensland and eastern NSW were wetter than
normal. Brisbane recorded 195.2mm, well above the monthly average of 92.5mm.
Meanwhile, Perth's average maximum of 27.6C was 3C above normal and the city received just 5mm of rain, against an
average of 45.5mm. For the next three months, the Bureau of Meteorology predicts daytime temperatures will be average
across the country but that there is a 65 to 75 per cent chance of warmer nights than normal in central Queensland. There was
a strong chance of cooler nights south of a line from Ceduna in South Australia to Lakes Entrance in Victoria.
Bureau blows hot and cold..
The Bureau of Meteorology has backed down from a claim that temperatures at Australia's three bases in Antarctica have
been warming over the past three decades. A senior bureau climatologist had accused The Weekend Australian of
manufacturing a report that temperatures were cooling in East Antarctica, where Australia's Mawson, Davis and Casey bases
are located. The trend of temperatures and ice conditions in Antarctica is central to the debate on global warming because
substantial melting of the Antarctic ice cap, which contains 90 per cent of the world's ice, would be required for sea levels to
rise.
While calvings from ice shelves in parts of West Antarctica have generated headlines, evidence has emerged that
temperatures are cooling in the east of the continent, which is four times the size of West Antarctica. Contrary to widespread
public perceptions, the area of sea ice around the continent is expanding. The Weekend Australian reported last month a
claim by Bureau of Meteorology senior climatologist Andrew Watkins that monitoring at Australia's Antarctic bases since the
1950s indicated temperatures were rising. A study was then published by the British Antarctic Survey that concluded the
ozone hole was responsible for the cooling and expansion of sea ice around much of the continent. The head of the study
project, John Turner, said at the time that the section of Antarctica that included the Australian bases was among the areas
that had cooled. Dr Watkins said The Weekend Australian had misrepresented the results of the BAS study, which made no
findings about temperatures at Australian bases.
7
When it was pointed out to Dr Watkins that Professor Turner had been quoted directly, Dr Watkins said his bureau, and not
the BAS, was the agency collecting temperature data. "You kept going until you got the answer you wanted," Dr Watkins
said. "You were told explicitly that the data collected by the Bureau of Meteorology at the Australian bases shows a warming
for maximum temperatures at all bases, and minimum temperatures at all but Mawson." However, Professor Turner told The
Weekend Australian the data showed a cooling of the East Antarctica coast associated with the onset of the ozone layer from
1980 onwards. Professor Turner said the monthly mean temperatures for Casey station from 1980 to 2005 showed a cooling
of 0.45C per decade. In autumn, the temperature trend has been a cooling of 0.93C per decade.
"These fairly small temperature trends seem to be consistent to me with the small increase in sea ice extent off the coast," he
said. Dr Watkins did not dispute the figures referred to by Professor Turner. Referring to the bureau's data collection since the
1950s, Dr Watkins said Professor Turner's figures were "only half of the full data set". However, Dr Watkins admitted that
analysis of the data might show "an ozone-induced cooling trend in the latter half of the record" - a reference to the past three
decades. Dr Watkins declined to release the temperature data to The Weekend Australian. He said it had still to be fully
analysed by the bureau. Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said he hoped all government agencies would co-operate in
helping to inform the global warming debate. "These agencies need to be able to dispense the facts without fear or bias," he
said.
ETS 'may bankrupt power stations'
Australia’s electricity generators have warned the Rudd Government that power stations could face insolvency this year
under an emissions trading scheme that forced such rapid change it risked "blowing up in their faces". The National
Generators Forum told a Senate committee yesterday that many power stations would simply not be able to afford the 100 to
200 per cent increase in operating costs under the current plan to require them to buy more than 80 per cent of necessary
emissions permits. This would leave some insolvent and all struggling to find $50 billion in new and refinancing capital over
the next five years.
The forum said the $3.9 billion compensation in free permits on offer fell short of the $10 billion or more in asset value loss
they would suffer. The warnings came as the Nationals Senate leader Barnaby Joyce said there was almost no chance the
Nationals would agree to emissions trading amendments being prepared by the Liberal Party in preparation for Senate
negotiations over the Government's "carbon pollution reduction scheme". "I think it is exceptionally, exceptionally unlikely
that an alternative emissions trading scheme would be any better, any less tokenistic, than the Government's emissions trading
scheme," Senator Joyce said.
As business groups, including the Business Council of Australia, the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the
Australian Industry Group, urge the major parties to pass an amended version of the ETS but delay its financial impact for a
few years or until the economy returns to growth, the Coalition yesterday released an independent economic report upon
which it will base its demands for major changes to the Government's scheme. The Government is seeking to increase
pressure on both the Coalition and the Greens ahead of next month's Senate vote on the scheme, with Kevin Rudd yesterday
claiming there was a "complete vacuum in terms of Liberal Party policy nationally".
The Parliamentary Secretary on Climate Change, Greg Combet, has also said the Greens' demand for tougher ETS targets
means they are rendering themselves "irrelevant", but the Prime Minister insisted the Government was seeking a Senate deal:
"Our job is to try and punch this through. It's going to be tough, it's going to be hard and we'll continue to work with
stakeholders on the way through." Speaking at Senate hearings in Canberra, the executive director of International Power
Australia, Tony Concannon, called for the Government to auction a far lesser proportion of scheme permits in its early years.
'Flawed' ETS needs big changes: Robb
The Coalition today ruled out supporting the emissions trading scheme in its current form, calling for the Government to
analyse the "flawed" plan's effect on jobs and to consider alternatives. But the Opposition's emissions trading spokesman
Andrew Robb left the door open to allowing the ETS to pass through the Senate. "No one is saying it's all or nothing," Mr
Robb said, releasing a Coalition-commissioned analysis of the Government's Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme. "What we
are saying go right back and do the work, fix up the flaws, do not put in jeopardy tens of thousands of Australian jobs,
especially at a time when we've got the biggest financial crisis in 80 years," he said.
The analysis, prepared by David Pearce from the Centre for International Economics, warns that the Government has failed to
adequately assess the level of environmental benefits the CPRS will achieve for its cost, its ability to deal with uncertainty
and whether it explicitly accounts for international developments. Parliamentary Secretary for Climate Change Greg Combet
effectively conceded yesterday that the Government will have to deal with the Coalition to pass the CPRS. He said the Greens
had "made themselves irrelevant" with demands that amounted to "lunacy". Mr Robb said the CIE report "clearly establishes
that the design of the Government's proposed emissions trading scheme needs to be reconsidered and compared empirically
with alternatives. "For the Government to have ignored the impact of the global financial crisis beggars belief,” he said.
"The costs over the next 20 years of lost competitiveness and lost jobs must be established, along with the likely impact, or
not, on CO2 emissions.” Mr Robb accused the Government of "flying blind" on both the risk to jobs and emissions
reductions. "The Rudd Government has no idea of how many jobs its scheme will destroy, how it affects different industries
or regions, or even whether it is the most cost-effective option for Australia to reduce CO2 emissions. "Constructive
alternatives to the Government's flawed scheme are necessary.
8
As well as reviewing the carbon pricing mechanism, energy efficiencies in the commercial building sector, carbon capture in
soil and other means, and the efforts of individuals, must be part of an effective scheme.” Mr Robb said the Government's
CPRS will destroy jobs. "What the Pearce report confirms is that the Government has done no analysis, no analysis of what
will be the transitional affects on businesses of their scheme,” he said. "The only work out there at the moment about what
will happen to jobs is the work that has been commissioned by all of these companies who are very fearful about the
circumstance and their future and about future investment and the viability of their businesses." The report recommends that
the Government ask the Productivity Commission to carry out this research.
The Opposition seems no closer to a policy position on emissions trading despite the release of the report. "The Coalition will
finalise its policy response once we've seen the results of the current Senate inquiries and following analysis of this report,"
Mr Robb said. Opposition Leader Malcolm Turnbull's office was unable to say if he would be commenting publicly on the
Pearce report today. Coalition sources have suggested that Mr Turnbull will face major challenges in finding a policy path
Liberals and Nationals will follow. Divisions over emissions trading and climate change policy dealt the final blow to the
leadership of his predecessor, Brendan Nelson.
Carbon plan will cost jobs: steel boss
Bluescope chairman Graham Kraehe has warned that the Australian Government's proposed carbon pollution reduction
scheme may cost jobs and the nation's competitiveness. “It is very disappointing that the government still appears stubbornly
committed to its 2010 CPRS (Carbon Reduction Pollution Reduction Scheme) deadline, despite its obvious and serious
flaws,” Mr Kraehe told a meeting of the Australian Institute of Company Directors in Brisbane today. Mr Kraehe's comments
follow those of other Australian companies, such as energy producers Woodside Petroleum and Caltex Australia, which have
called on the government to reconsider the planned scheme, which is set to be debated in Parliament from next month.
The companies have asked the government to delay the plan, which they say would impose significant extra costs on
employers already reeling from the effects of the global economic slowdown. The plan puts at risk the long-term viability of
significant sectors of the Australian economy, Mr Kraehe, the chairman of Australia's largest steel maker , said. “There is
general agreement that Australia is in, or close to, recession and that unemployment will get considerably worse.
“The Australian economy will survive the economic downturn, but it may not survive the CPRS.”
Mr Kraehe said the government hasn’t modelled the effect of its proposal on Australia's economic growth and employment,
and in its current form will "seriously affect Australian jobs and competitiveness, while probably increase global emission."
"The Australian government's plan is for our CPRS to hit us in just 14 months time, a deadweight burden ahead of any other
country and in the midst of a global recession," he said. Mr Kraehe described the current proposal as a "$2.5 billion destimulus package," which will affect large employers in core industries such as mining, cement, steel and liquefied natural
gas. "The CPRS will act like a punitive tax on domestic industry giving an unfair advantage to imports and imposing a
disadvantage to imports and imposing a disadvantage on exports," he said.
Cold facts dispel theories on warming
For more than a decade public opinion on human-caused global warming has been moulded by pronouncements from the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and its army of acolytes. Arguably the zenith of acceptance was the IPCC's
fourth assessment in early 2007 followed soon after by the release of the Al Gore movie An Inconvenient Truth. The
accompanying recognition by way of an Academy Award for the movie and awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize jointly to
Gore and the IPCC only heightened awareness of the message. During more recent months it is not overstating the case to say
that there has been a perceptible shift in public opinion.
Rejection of some of the claims made in the movie by a British court in it self has had little effect. It is the soothing promises
that decarbonising the economies of the developed world can be achieved without pain, and even with gain of green jobs, that
are being seen more widely as hollow. There is rising recognition that introduction of a carbon tax under the guise of "cap and
trade" will be personally costly, economically disruptive to society and tend to shift classes of jobs offshore. Moreover,
despite rising carbon dioxide concentrations, global warming seems to have taken a holiday. The science of global warming
is claimed to be too complex for the public to comprehend and judge.
We are continually being told to take and act on the advice of the consensus of IPCC experts; the dissenters are no more than
paid mouthpieces of industry or worse. Nevertheless, the public and their representatives are showing innate common sense.
The Australian Senate is poised to reject the "cap and trade" legislation designed by the Rudd Government to implement the
Orwellian carbon pollution reduction scheme; it is unlikely the US Senate will ratify similar legislation to limit carbon
dioxide emissions any time soon, despite the rhetoric of Barack Obama; and the UN's post-Kyoto dreams of global industrial
regulation are destined to fail in Copenhagen later this year. Economist John Quiggin appears so concerned at the direction of
events that he claims "mainstream science is on the verge of being overturned by the efforts of a group of dedicated
amateurs" (The Australian Financial Review, April 23).
With public perceptions changing so dramatically and quickly it is little wonder Ian Plimer's latest book, Heaven and Earth,
Global Warming: The Missing Science, has been received with such enthusiasm and is into its third print run in as many
weeks. The public is receptive to an expose of the many mythologies and false claims associated with anthropogenic global
warming and are welcoming an authoritative description of planet Earth and its ever-changing climate in readable language.
In an interesting slant on logic, Robert Manne, writing in The Weekend Australian last Saturday, takes the position it is not
what citizens should believe that is important but who they believe.
9
Needless to say, he favours the UN's IPCC and its so-called consensus over those such as Plimer who question the
anthropogenic global warming science. What is often forgotten is that the UN established the IPCC in 1988 only because of
the then raging scientific debate over the veracity of the anthropogenic global warming hypothesis. The debate has continued
because the dire predictions violate fundamental scientific laws and the real science cannot be suppressed. Recognition of the
essential flaw in the dangerous global warming hypothesis predates the IPCC and has been there for the world to see in the
title of a paper published in 1966 by CSIRO division of meteorological physics former chief Bill Priestley: "The limitation of
temperature in hot climates by evaporation."
Seventy per cent of the Earth's surface is made up of ocean and much of the remaining surface is transpiring vegetation.
Evaporation and the exchange of latent energy from the surface is a strong constraint to surface temperature rise.
It is not rocket science that water from a canvas bag is cool even on the hottest days. Furthermore, the surface temperatures of
the warmest tropical oceans seldom exceed 30C and for millions of years the underlying cold sub-surface waters have
provided a powerful thermal buffer to warming. The suggestion of anthropogenic global warming exceeding a tipping point
and leading to runaway or irreversible global warming is a violation of conservation of energy principles.
Computer models are the essential tool for prediction of future climate. Since the IPCC fourth assessment, several
independent analyses of the characteristics of the various models have been published in the scientific literature. These
analyses reveal serious defects.
As the Earth warmed during the 1980s and '90s, it was observed that the convective overturning of the tropics (the Hadley
circulation) increased. In contrast, the overturning of the computer models is portrayed to decrease as increasing carbon
dioxide generates global warming. Separately it is found that the computer models under specify (by a factor of three) the
important rate of increase of evaporation with projected temperature rise, meaning that the models under specify rainfall
increase and exaggerate the risk of drought. The same evaporation problem causes an exaggeration of the temperature
response to carbon dioxide, but the exaggeration is a model failure and not reality.
The greenhouse effect is real, as is the enhancement due to increasing carbon dioxide concentration.
However, the likely extent of global temperature rise from a doubling of carbon dioxide is less than 1C. Such warming is well
within the envelope of variation experienced during the past 10,000 years and insignificant in the context of glacial cycles
during the past million years, when Earth has been predominantly very cold and covered by extensive ice sheets.
Fundamental science has always identified that it is quixotic to attempt regulation of climate through management of carbon
dioxide emissions. The pity is that community leaders have been beguiled by the mystery of powerful computers and have
failed to critically assess the predictions within the context of Earth's history. Plimer's authoritative book provides the excuse
and impetus to re-examine the scientific fundamentals and redress that failure.
Rudd set to soften stance on energy
Energy-hungry industries could be offered exemptions from the federal Government's new 20 per cent renewable energy
target, as Kevin Rudd struggles to win support for his climate change policies in the face of the global economic crisis.
The Prime Minister will ask premiers to sign off on the further concessions for the industries at tomorrow's Council of
Australian Governments meeting in Hobart. The Government had foreshadowed an exemption for aluminium, which
consumes about 15per cent of the nation's electricity, but sources said it was now considering a broader partial exemption or
compensation scheme that would cover other big electricity users such as pulp and paper, steel, cement and silicon.
Major industries had complained about the "double whammy" from both the planned carbon pollution reduction scheme and
the renewable energy target, which requires that electricity retailers and large users source 20 per cent of electricity supply
from renewable sources by 2020.
Some sources suggested the broader RET exemptions could soften industry resistance to the emissions trading law when its
fate is decided in the Senate next month. Bluescope Steel chairman Graham Kraehe yesterday launched a bitter attack against
the emissions trading scheme plan, saying it was "dangerous", "flawed" and could lead to thousands of job losses. "It is very
disappointing that the Government still appears stubbornly committed to its 2010 carbon pollution reduction scheme
deadline, despite its obvious and serious flaws," Mr Kraehe told a meeting of the Australian Institute of Company Directors in
Brisbane.
He said the Government was on the one hand injecting more than $50 billion into the economy to soften the downturn and on
the other hand potentially destroying employment for thousands of workers with a carbon tax that would have a serious
destabilising effect on industry and regional Australia. Climate Change Minister Penny Wong said clear domestic laws were
crucial to the success of the UN climate change talks in Copenhagen in December to determine a successor agreement to the
Kyoto Protocol, which expires in 2012. Speaking from Washington, where she is attending a meeting of ministers from major
emitting nations as part of a process organised by US President Barack Obama to inject momentum into the Copenhagen
negotiations, Senator Wong said: "The consistent message has been that international negotiations have to be underpinned by
domestic actions."
A decision to exempt more electricity-hungry industries from the renewable energy target would anger environmentalists.
The Australian Conservation Foundation, the ACTU, the Australian Council of Social Service and the Climate Institute think
tank wrote to Kevin Rudd last week arguing against any exemptions from the target. The groups said they could see "no
public policy justification for assistance to Australia's most polluting industries under RET, particularly in the context of the
generous, poorly targeted assistance to industry proposed in the CPRS."
10
Bush burns ease global warming
When Europeans first encountered Australia, they saw a continent ablaze as Aboriginal "firestick farmers" lit up the bush
with controlled burns that prevented destructive wildfires. Now a hi-tech version of the land management practice, which is
possibly tens of thousands of years old, could form part of Australia's strategy to tackle a modern problem: global warming.
The federal Government is investing about $10 million in a project to find out whether prescribed burning on Aboriginal
savanna land could cut greenhouse gas emissions.
The grant, announced by Climate Change Minister Penny Wong and Environment Minister Peter Garrett late last month, will
also be used to investigate whether the land management practice could give traditional owners access to the carbon market
through greenhouse gas offsets, credits that could be sold to emitters. Carbon offsets initially will not be allowed in
Australia's carbon trading scheme, due to be introduced by 2010. In its greenhouse white paper, issued in mid-December last
year, the Government said it would not consider offset credits until 2013, when it would also consider the inclusion of
agriculture in carbon trading.
The offsets project will be led by the North Australian Indigenous Land and Sea Management Alliance and include
researchers from Charles Darwin University and the CSIRO. The term firestick farming was coined in the 1960s by
Australian National University archeologist Rhys Jones to describe the Aboriginal practice of controlled burning to clear
paths, flush out prey, regenerate plant food and suppress snakes. The firing of selected areas, reported widely in ethnographic
accounts from the European contact period, creates a mosaic of burned patches - firebreaks with reduced fuel load - and
unburned patches that provide cover for animals.
Alliance chief executive Joe Morrison says modern versions of the practice continue in many parts of northern Australia.
"But in areas where indigenous people have been removed from their land, the controlled use of fire has given way to large
devastating wildfires that consume vast amounts of country," he says. The study is aimed at "using some of the knowledge
held by indigenous people to put (traditional) fire regimes back into practice". Biologist, author and former Australian of the
Year Tim Flannery says the inclusion of prescribed burning as a greenhouse gas offset could see Australia take "a true
leading role in dealing with the climate problem".
"We're a very large continent with huge potential opportunities for sequestration," says Flannery, who has written extensively
on the role of burning in Australia's deep past and has been vocal on greenhouse policy. "If we can devise methodologies for
any of the broadacre solutions it would be a great act of real leadership. So far we've been pathetic. We're still dragging the
anchor. This is a real opportunity for government." Research by a team of scientists led by CSIRO environmental economist
Scott Heckbert suggests that "cool burns" across indigenous land could cut emissions by 2.6million tonnes a year.
The scientists investigated the potential for offsets from fire abatement on savanna land holdings of the Indigenous Land
Corp, an independent statutory authority that helps Aborigines and Torres Strait Islanders acquire and manage properties.
They outlined their results in a report, titled Land Management for Emissions Offsets on Indigenous Lands, released late last
year.
The team isolated five properties across the Top End, in Western Australia, the Northern Territory and Queensland, for
detailed computer modelling. It calculated the extent to which prescribed burning early in the dry season would cut
greenhouse gas emissions by preventing wildfires late in the season. The study extrapolated the results to indigenous land
across the continent. Assuming a price of $20 a tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent, prescribed burning could generate $52
million and 1029 seasonal jobs a year for Aboriginal communities. More than 20 per cent of Australia, including vast areas of
high conservation value, is recognised as indigenously owned land, the report says. Indigenous land also accounts for 54 per
cent of all potential emission reductions from Australia's fire-prone savannas and rangelands.
The CSIRO study shows that, while involving complex carbon accounting, it is possible to put a figure on emissions
abatement from prescribed burning. There should be no technical barriers to inclusion of the practice in a carbon offsets
scheme. "The study puts some bounds around what's possible," CSIRO Sustainable Ecosystems chief Dan Walker says. "But
more research is needed to firm up the numbers and sort out the details of implementation." The alliance's project will extend
the CSIRO work. "We're fine-tuning the analysis," Morrison says. "We'll be (testing) the methodology in regions of different
vegetation types.
"We'll also be looking at the difference in emissions between early and late burns." The project will also investigate the
logistics of reinstating traditional land management practices on a large scale. Flannery says further research is needed to
gauge the effect on biodiversity of prescribed burning on land impoverished by European farming systems. "You need to do
that due diligence if it's going to be done on a large scale," he says. "More research needs to be done on quantifying the
amount of carbon actually sequestered by changes in burning." Measures also will have to be put in place to ensure that the
altered fire regime is continued, "otherwise the sequestered carbon could be lost".
The prescribed burning of the future probably will be "a combination of traditional knowledge and Western science", says the
CSIRO's Heckbert. "It would include a fire management plan based on sophisticated GIS (geographic information systems),
precision weather forecasting and biomass models. Implementation of the plan would involve the deployment of helicopters
and fire crews using the latest equipment, and the effects would be monitored with high-resolution satellite imagery."
Heckbert says indigenous people in parts of the Top End have managed their land with fire from pre-colonial times to the
present. "Society may be moving from dismissing the indigenous presence in the landscape to acknowledging its importance
and even recognising it in real dollars in markets."