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CONTENTS Page Foreword ................................................................................................................................................................. iii Preface .................................................................................................................................................................... v Acknowledgements .............................................................................................................................................. xi Abbreviations ......................................................................................................................................................... xxiv Sources of quotations ......................................................................................................................................... xxvii Chapter 1. Chapter 2. The return of the financial crisis: Managing, vulnerabilities and deepening regional cooperation .................................................................................................................... 3 Impact of the crisis on Asia-Pacific ......................................................................................... 3 Decline in domestic demand and exports ............................................................................ Negative impact on livelihoods and vulnerable groups ....................................................... 3 13 Growth outlook for 2009 ............................................................................................................ 16 Growth down across the board ............................................................................................. The backdrop for 2009 forecasts ........................................................................................... Significant downside risks from protracted recession .......................................................... 16 16 17 Indicators of resilience and potential vulnerabilities ........................................................... 19 Sources of resilience ............................................................................................................... Vulnerabilities on the watch list .............................................................................................. 19 19 From crisis-resilience to crisis-resistance: Next steps ...................................................... 31 Global and regional cooperation in financial issues are at an infant stage ...................... 31 References ........................................................................................................................................ 37 Food and fuel price shocks ....................................................................................................... 41 Evolution of fuel and food prices ............................................................................................ 42 Underlying reasons for the volatility of fuel and food prices ........................................... 45 Fuel ........................................................................................................................................... Food .......................................................................................................................................... Integration of food, fuel and financial markets ..................................................................... 45 46 48 Economic and social impacts ................................................................................................... 51 The policy challenge: Managing long-run fuel and food sustainability risks ............... 57 Energy ....................................................................................................................................... Food .......................................................................................................................................... Biofuels ..................................................................................................................................... Social protection ...................................................................................................................... 58 59 62 63 References ........................................................................................................................................ 66 xiii CONTENTS (continued) Page Chapter 3. The climate change challenge: Reorienting development towards greener and sustainable growth ............................................................................................................... 71 Climate change and related vulnerabilities ............................................................................ 73 Environmental impacts ............................................................................................................ 73 Socio-economic impacts ......................................................................................................... 73 Policy responses to climate change ........................................................................................ 77 First strategy: Utilizing the window of opportunity created by the financial crisis ..... 78 Second strategy: Promoting a shift in the attitude towards climate change ................... 85 Third strategy: Chapter 4. xiv Asia and the Pacific playing a critical role in the global climate change agenda ......................................................................................... 88 References ........................................................................................................................................ 89 Subregional variations: Performance and policy responses ........................................... 93 East and North-East Asia: Impact of global financial crisis begins to take its toll ............................................................................................................................... 94 Impact: Strong head wind slows economic performance ................................................... 94 Policy responses: Space for expansionary policies ............................................................. 99 Outlook: Difficult times ahead as export engine falters ....................................................... 101 North and Central Asia: Overall a year of mixed results ................................................. 102 Impact: Resilient growth with some deceleration ................................................................. 102 Policy responses: Solid fiscal positions, but concerns loom .............................................. 110 Outlook: Signs of weakening .................................................................................................. 110 Pacific island developing countries: Global economic slowdown clouds long-term prospects ..................................................................................................................... 112 Impact: Growth modest in most economies ........................................................................ 114 Policy responses: Providing macroeconomic stability .......................................................... 119 Outlook: Slowdown with long term threats looming large ................................................... 121 South and South-West Asia: Downward pressures but steadfast resilience ............... 122 Impact: Moderating but robust growth .................................................................................. 125 Policy responses: Budget deficits under pressure ............................................................... 131 Outlook: Moderating growth with downward pressures ....................................................... 132 South-East Asia: International financial crisis evolves into deepening subregional industrial crisis ....................................................................................................... 133 Impact: Dramatic drops in GDP and exports ....................................................................... 133 Policy responses: As recessionary pressures mount, urgency of further expansionary policies intensifies ............................................................................................. 136 Outlook ...................................................................................................................................... 139 CONTENTS (continued) Page Chapter 5. Developed economies in the ESCAP region: Heightened contagion and deepening recession .................................................................................................................... 143 Impact: The return of recession ............................................................................................. 143 Policy responses ...................................................................................................................... 147 Outlook and key policy priorities ............................................................................................ 150 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 150 References ........................................................................................................................................ 151 Converging crises: Redirecting policies to achieve inclusive and sustainable development .................................................................................................... 155 Commonalities among the crises ............................................................................................. 156 Convergence and policy stresses ............................................................................................ 157 The financial crisis threatens to converge on itself in a deep, downward spiral .............. 157 Financial excesses and commodity price volatility ............................................................... 157 Financial resources are scarce, and the costs of addressing climate change challenges are high ................................................................................................................. 158 The future of Asia and the Pacific: Investing in inclusive and sustainable development ................................................................................................................................... 159 Public spending: Size matters .............................................................................................. 159 Quality matters more: The importance of forward planning .............................................. 159 Investing for inclusive growth and human progress ............................................................ 160 Investing in environmentally sustainable development and innovation ............................... 161 How? Government as the peoples’ partner .......................................................................... 161 Towards an Asia-Pacific framework for inclusive and sustainable growth and development ............................................................................................................ 164 Resuming economic growth and preserving macroeconomic stability .............................. 165 Strengthening the social foundation of inclusive development ........................................... 166 Promoting sustainable development ...................................................................................... 168 Guiding principles .................................................................................................................... 169 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 169 References ........................................................................................................................................ 170 Statistical annex .................................................................................................................................................... 173 xv BOXES Page 1.1. In a time of crisis, a rule-based multilateral trading system is more important than ever ................ 30 2.1. Food commodity prices in the last 100 years ........................................................................................ 44 2.2. Are speculators to blame? ........................................................................................................................ 49 3.1. National action plans on climate change ................................................................................................ 80 3.2. Trade-offs in biofuel production ................................................................................................................ 82 3.3. Adapting to climate change by the private sector: ESCAP-SIDA joint action .................................... 84 4.1 Responding to climate change in the Pacific: The Pacific Plan 2005 ................................................ 113 4.2. Inclusive growth to tackle widespread poverty and inequalities in South Asia ................................... 123 4.3. Policy responses in supporting food security in South-East Asia ........................................................ 140 5.1. Infrastructure investment during economic downturns ........................................................................... 162 xvi TABLES Page 1.1. Rate of change of average exchange rates for January-June 2008 as compared to July-December 2008 ............................................................................................................................. 23 1.2. Share of Chinese and Indian imports from the ESCAP region and its subregions (2007) ............... 27 2.1 Impact of commodity price increases on the trade balance ................................................................ 52 2.2. Impact of food commodity inflation on domestic food inflation ........................................................... 54 3.1. Selected examples of infrastructure damage and losses resulting from climatic events in Asia, 2006-2008 ..................................................................................................................................... 76 3.2. Implementation of policy measures for technical fuel efficiency improvement ................................... 81 4.1. Rates of economic growth and inflation in East and North-East Asia, 2007-2009 ............................. 95 4.2. Fiscal stimulus packages in China and the Republic of Korea ............................................................ 100 4.3. Rates of economic growth and inflation in North and Central Asian economies, 2007-2009 ........... 102 4.4. External accounts for North and Central Asian economies, 2007-2008 .............................................. 108 4.5. Export and import growth in North and Central Asian economies, 2006-2008 .................................. 109 4.6. Fiscal stimulus packages in North and Central Asia ............................................................................. 111 4.7. Rates of economic growth and inflation in selected Pacific island economies, 2007-2009 .............. 112 4.8. Current account balance in selected Pacific island economies, 2005-2008 ....................................... 117 4.9. Fiscal stimulus package in selected Pacific island economies ............................................................ 119 4.10. Rates of economic growth and inflation, South and South-West Asian economies, 2007-2009 ....... 122 4.11. Summary of external accounts for selected South and South-West Asian economies ...................... 129 4.12. Fiscal stimulus package in selected countries in South and South-West Asia ................................... 132 4.13. Selected fiscal stimulus packages in South-East Asian region ............................................................ 142 4.14. Rates of economic growth and inflation of Australia, Japan and New Zealand, 2007-2009 ............. 144 4.15. Summary of external accounts for ESCAP developed countries .......................................................... 147 4.16. Fiscal stimulus packages in developed countries in Asia and the Pacific .......................................... 148 xvii FIGURES Page 1.1. Spread of 3-month LIBOR to 3-month United States Treasury bill rate, 1995-2008 .......................... 4 1.2. Equity markets for selected developing ESCAP economies, 2006-2008 ............................................. 5 1.3. Performance of regional emerging markets equities indices, 15 September 20089 January 2009 .......................................................................................................................................... 5 Peak-to-trough equity market fall, decline from peak to trough in 1997/98 and peak to end-December 2008 in 2007/08 ........................................................................................ 6 Path of equity market decline from peak to trough in 1997/98 as compared with equity market decline from peak to end-December 2008 in 2007/08 ......................................... 7 1.6. Non-performing loan rates in selected developing ESCAP economies, Q2 2008 .............................. 8 1.7. Export and import growth of selected ESCAP members and associate members to and from the world, August-November 2008 .......................................................................................... 9 Export and import growth of selected ESCAP members and associate members to and from Asia, August-November 2008 .............................................................................................. 9 Export performance of selected export-oriented developing ESCAP economies by quarter, 2008 ......................................................................................................................................... 9 1.10. Real GDP growth of selected export-oriented developing ESCAP economies by quarter, 2008 ...... 10 1.11. Value of export and nominal GDP growth for ESCAP developing economies .................................... 11 1.12. Inward direct investment as a share of GDP in selected developing ESCAP economies ................ 11 1.13. Contributions of domestic demand to GDP growth for selected developing ESCAP economies ..................................................................................................................................... 12 1.14. Top 10 remittance-recipient developing economies in Asia and the Pacific, 2008 estimate ............. 15 1.15. Real GDP growth of selected developing ESCAP and developed economies, 2003-2009 ............... 16 1.16. Rates of economic growth of selected developing and developed ESCAP economies, 2007-2009 ................................................................................................................................................... 17 Current account balance as a percentage of GDP in selected developing ESCAP economies, 1996-2008 .............................................................................................................................. 20 1.18. Foreign reserves as a percentage of GDP of selected developing ESCAP economies .................... 20 1.19. Short-term external debt as a percentage of GDP in selected developing ESCAP economies ....... 21 1.20. Stock of foreign portfolio investment as a percentage of total external foreign liabilities, 2002-2007 ................................................................................................................................... 21 Stock of foreign portfolio investments as a percentage of reserves for selected emerging Asian countries, 2001 and 2007 ............................................................................................. 21 1.4. 1.5. 1.8. 1.9. 1.17. 1.21. xviii FIGURES (continued) Page 1.22. Exchange rate movements of selected developing ESCAP economies, 2007-2008 .......................... 22 1.23. Change in nominal effective exchange rate from peak to trough in 1997-98 and 2007-08 .............. 22 1.24. Foreign reserves in selected developing ESCAP economies, December 2007 to December 2008 ..................................................................................................................................... 22 1.25. Loan-to-deposit ratio of selected developing Asian economies, November 2008 ............................. 23 1.26. External public debt as a share of GDP of selected emerging Asian economies, Q2 2008 ............ 24 1.27. Total trade as a percentage of GDP: ESCAP subregions (developing economies only) ................. 25 1.28. Vulnerability index of selected Asian export-led growers ....................................................................... 25 1.29. ESCAP developing countries: export share and export dependence index differences, 1995-2007 .............................................................................................................................. 26 Commodity structure of Chinese imports from ASEAN economies, India and the Republic of Korea ...................................................................................................................................... 27 1.31. Differences between applied and bound tariffs, selected ESCAP members ...................................... 28 1.32. Export growth of selected Asian economies grouping to China and China to the United States, 2006-2008 .......................................................................................................................... 29 1.33. Moving from crisis-resistance to crisis-resilience .................................................................................... 32 2.1. Food price index and Brent crude oil price, 1980-2008 ....................................................................... 42 2.2. Food price index and Brent crude oil price, adjusted by inflation, 1980-2008 ................................... 42 2.3. FAO food price index and its components, 2006-2008 ......................................................................... 43 2.4. Price indexes of selected cereals, 2007-2008 ........................................................................................ 43 2.5. Production and consumption of petroleum, 1997-2007 ........................................................................ 45 2.6. World consumption of petroleum and world GDP growth rates, 1982-2007 ...................................... 45 2.7. Share of increase in world petroleum consumption: top 10 countries .............................................. 46 2.8. World grain stocks in days of consumption, 1978-2008 ....................................................................... 46 2.9. Trends in world consumption of maize, rice and wheat, 1978-2008 ................................................... 47 2.10. Relationship between crude oil price and dollar/euro exchange rate, 2006-2008 .............................. 50 2.11. Impact of fuel and food prices on the trade balance, 2004-2007 ....................................................... 53 2.12. Increases in headline and food inflation rates between 2007 and 2008 ............................................. 54 2.13. Rates of CPI inflation, by ESCAP subregion, 2007-2009 ....................................................................... 55 1.30. xix FIGURES (continued) Page 2.14. Sustainability: balancing the demand and supply of crude oil and food .......................................... 57 2.15. Policies to balance demand for and supply of crude oil ...................................................................... 58 2.16. Petroleum intensity of GDP, by ESCAP subregion, 1990-2005 .............................................................. 60 2.17. Policies to balance demand for and supply of food ............................................................................. 61 2.18. Break-even prices for maize and crude oil with and without subsidies .............................................. 62 4.1. Slackening of economic growth in 2008, selected economies ............................................................. 94 4.2. Acceleration of inflation rate in 2008, selected economies ................................................................... 96 4.3. Mixed exchange rate movements: sharp depreciation of the Korean won and Mongolian tugrik, other currencies stable ............................................................................................... 97 4.4. Deterioration of current account balances in 2008, selected economies ............................................ 98 4.5. China’s fiscal stimulus package focusing on infrastructure investments ............................................. 99 4.6. Solid but weakening fiscal positions in 2008, selected countries ........................................................ 99 4.7. Real GDP and sectoral growth in North and Central Asian economies, 2007-2008 .......................... 103 4.8. Budget balance as a percentage of GDP in selected North and Central Asian economies, 2007-2008 .............................................................................................................................. 105 4.9. Inflation in North and Central Asian economies, 2007-2008 ................................................................. 106 4.10. Exchange rates, against the United States dollar, of selected North and Central Asian economies, 1996-2008 .............................................................................................................................. 107 4.11. Real GDP growth in selected Pacific island economies, 2006-2008 .................................................... 114 4.12. Inflation in selected Pacific island economies, 2006-2008 .................................................................... 116 4.13. Economic growth rates and sectoral contributions in selected South and South-West Asian economies, 2007-2008 ............................................................................................... 125 4.14. Inflation in South and South-West Asian economies, 2007-2008 ......................................................... 127 4.15. Budget deficits as a percentage of GDP in South and South-West Asian economies in 2007-2008 ........................................................................................................................... 130 4.16. GDP growth dropped in 2008, but the worse is still to come ............................................................. 134 4.17. Domestic demand growth did not help smooth out the impact of dropping exports during 2008 ................................................................................................................................... 135 4.18. Inflation trends reverted in the second half of 2008 .............................................................................. 136 4.19. 2009 inflation rates expected to drop back to levels similar to 2007 .................................................. 137 xx FIGURES (continued) Page 4.20. Current account balances deteriorated during 2008 .............................................................................. 137 4.21. Monetary policy easing since last months of 2008 ................................................................................ 137 4.22. Currencies depreciated in the second half of 2008 ............................................................................... 138 4.23. Budget deficits remain under control ...................................................................................................... 139 4.24. Economic growth in developed ESCAP countries, 2006-2008 ............................................................. 143 4.25. Inflation in developed ESCAP economies, 2006-2008 ........................................................................... 145 xxi EXPLANATORY NOTES Staff analysis in the Survey 2009 is based on data and information available up to the end of January 2009. The term “ESCAP region” is used in the present issue of the Survey to include Afghanistan; American Samoa; Armenia; Australia; Azerbaijan; Bangladesh; Bhutan; Brunei Darussalam; Cambodia; China; Cook Islands; Democratic People’s Republic of Korea; Fiji; French Polynesia; Georgia; Guam; Hong Kong, China; India; Indonesia; Iran (Islamic Republic of); Japan; Kazakhstan; Kiribati; Kyrgyzstan; Lao People’s Democratic Republic; Macao, China; Malaysia; Maldives; Marshall Islands; Micronesia (Federated States of); Mongolia; Myanmar; Nauru; Nepal; New Caledonia; New Zealand; Niue; Northern Mariana Islands; Pakistan; Palau; Papua New Guinea; Philippines; Republic of Korea; Russian Federation; Samoa; Singapore; Solomon Islands; Sri Lanka; Tajikistan; Thailand; Timor-Leste; Tonga; Turkey; Turkmenistan; Tuvalu; Uzbekistan; Vanuatu; and Viet Nam. The term “developing ESCAP region” excludes Australia, Japan and New Zealand. Non-regional members of ESCAP are France, the Netherlands, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the United States of America. The term “Central Asian countries” in this issue of the Survey refers to Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. The term “East and North-East Asia” in this issue of the Survey refers to China; Hong Kong, China; Mongolia; and the Republic of Korea. The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area, or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. The abbreviated title Survey in footnotes refers to the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific for the year indicated. Many figures used in the Survey are on a fiscal year basis and are assigned to the calendar year which covers the major part or second half of the fiscal year. Growth rates are on an annual basis, except where indicated otherwise. Reference to “tons” indicates metric tons. Values are in United States dollars unless specified otherwise. The term “billion” signifies a thousand million. The term “trillion” signifies a million million. In the tables, two dots (..) indicate that data are not available or are not separately reported, a dash (–) indicates that the amount is nil or negligible, and a blank indicates that the item is not applicable. In dates, a hyphen (-) is used to signify the full period involved, including the beginning and end years, and a stroke (/) indicates a crop year, fiscal year or plan year. The fiscal years, currencies and 2008 exchange rates of the economies in the ESCAP region are listed in the following table: Country or area in the ESCAP region Afghanistan .......................................... American Samoa ................................ Armenia ............................................... Australia ............................................... Azerbaijan ............................................ Bangladesh .......................................... Bhutan .................................................. Brunei Darussalam ............................. Cambodia ............................................ China .................................................... Cook Islands ....................................... Democratic People’s Republic of Korea ........................................... Fiji ......................................................... French Polynesia ................................. xxii Fiscal year Currency and abbreviation Rate of exchange for $1 as at December 2008 21 March to 20 March .. 1 January to 31 December 1 July to 30 June 1 January to 31 December 1 July to 30 June 1 July to 30 June 1 January to 31 December 1 January to 31 December 1 January to 31 December 1 April to 31 March afghani (Af) United States dollar ($) dram Australian dollar ($A) Azeri manat (AZM) taka (Tk) ngultrum (Nu) Brunei dollar (B$) riel (CR) yuan renminbi (Y) New Zealand dollar ($NZ) .. 1 January to 31 December .. won (W) Fiji dollar (F$) French Pacific Community franc (FCFP) 52.12 1.00 305.10a 1.44 0.81a 68.94 49.25a 1.48 4 081.00 6.84 1.72 139.00 1.83a 85.73 Country or area in the ESCAP region Fiscal year Georgia ................................................ Guam ................................................... Hong Kong, China .............................. India ..................................................... Indonesia ............................................. Iran (Islamic Republic of) ................... Japan ................................................... Kazakhstan .......................................... Kiribati .................................................. Kyrgyzstan ........................................... Lao People’s Democratic Republic ... Macao, China ...................................... Malaysia ............................................... Maldives ............................................... Marshall Islands .................................. Micronesia (Federated States of) ...... Mongolia .............................................. Myanmar .............................................. Nauru ................................................... Nepal ................................................... New Caledonia .................................... 1 January to 31 December 1 October to 30 September 1 April to 31 March 1 April to 31 March 1 April to 31 March 21 March to 20 March 1 April to 31 March 1 January to 31 December 1 January to 31 December 1 January to 31 December 1 October to 30 September 1 July to 30 June 1 January to 31 December 1 January to 31 December 1 October to 30 September 1 October to 30 September 1 January to 31 December 1 April to 31 March 1 July to 30 June 16 July to 15 July .. New Zealand ....................................... Niue ...................................................... Northern Mariana Islands ................... Pakistan ............................................... Palau .................................................... Papua New Guinea ............................. Philippines ........................................... Republic of Korea ............................... Russian Federation ............................. Samoa ................................................. Singapore ............................................ Solomon Islands ................................. Sri Lanka ............................................. Tajikistan .............................................. Thailand ............................................... Timor-Leste .......................................... Tonga ................................................... Turkey ................................................... Turkmenistan ........................................ Tuvalu ................................................... Uzbekistan ........................................... Vanuatu ................................................ Viet Nam .............................................. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 April to 31 March April to 31 March October to 30 September July to 30 June October to 30 September January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December July to 30 June April to 31 March January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December October to 30 September July to 30 June July to 30 June January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December January to 31 December Currency and abbreviation Rate of exchange for $1 as at December 2008 lari (L) United States dollar ($) Hong Kong dollar (HK$) Indian rupee (Rs) Indonesian rupiah (Rp) Iranian rial (Rls) yen (Y =) tenge (T) Australian dollar ($A) som (som) new kip (NK) pataca (P) ringgit (M$) rufiyaa (Rf) United States dollar ($) United States dollar ($) tugrik (Tug) kyat (K) Australian dollar ($A) Nepalese rupee (NRs) French Pacific Community franc (FCFP) New Zealand dollar ($NZ) New Zealand dollar ($NZ) United States dollar ($) Pakistan rupee (PRs) United States dollar ($) kina (K) Philippine peso (P) won (W) ruble (R) tala (WS$) Singapore dollar (S$) Solomon Islands dollar (SI$) Sri Lanka rupee (SL Rs) somoni baht (B) United States dollar ($) pa’anga (T$) Turkish lira (LT) Turkmen manat (M) Australian dollar ($A) som (som) vatu (VT) dong (D) 10 10 8 1 1 14 1 16 1.67 1.00 7.75 48.45 950.00 009.00a 90.28 120.77 1.44 38.21b 609.20c 7.98a 3.46 12.80 1.00 1.00 267.51 5.74 1.44 79.60b 85.73 1.72 1.72 1.00 79.11 1.00 2.68 47.49 262.00 29.38 2.73b 1.44 8.01 113.33 3.45 34.98 1.00 2.07 1.23 250.00b 1.44 328.00b 112.62 977.00 Sources: United Nations, Monthly Bulletin of Statistics website, http://unstats.un.org/unsd/mbs/Default.aspx, 10 February 2009; CEIC Data Company Limited; and national sources. a b c November 2008. October 2008. August 2008. xxiii ABBREVIATIONS ADB Asian Development Bank APCAEM Asian and Pacific Centre for Agricultural Engineering and Machinery ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations BRT bus rapid transit CAPSA Centre for Alleviation of Poverty through Secondary Crops Development in Asia and the Pacific CDM clean development mechanism CD-ROM compact disk read-only memory CH4 methane c.i.f. cost, insurance, freight CNG compressed natural gas CO2 carbon dioxide CO2e equivalent carbon dioxide CO2-eq carbon dioxide equivalent CPI consumer price index CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CSR corporate social responsibility EIU Economist Intelligence Unit EM-DAT Emergency Events Database EU ETS European Union Emission Trading Scheme FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FDI foreign direct investment f.o.b. free on broad GDP gross domestic product GHG greenhouse gas IEA International Energy Agency IES Integrated Environmental Strategies xxiv ABBREVIATIONS (continued) IGES Institute for Global Environmental Strategies ILO International Labour Organization IMF International Monetary Fund IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LIBOR London Interbank Offer Rate LPG liquefied petroleum gas M2 broad money supply MDG Millennium Development Goal NGO non-governmental organization N2O nitrous oxide NPL non-performing loan OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OFDA Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance (United States) ppm parts per million PPP purchasing power parity PRSPs poverty reduction strategy papers PTA preferential trade agreement R&D research and development REDAT Regional Disaster Information Management System SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Sida Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency SME medium-sized enterprise TCG Tripartite Core Group (ASEAN-United Nations-Myanmar) UNCTAD United Nations Conference on Trade and Development UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNEP United Nations Environment Programme xxv ABBREVIATIONS (continued) UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development VAT value added tax WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization WMO World Meteorological Organization WTO World Trade Organization WWF World Wildlife Fund xxvi SOURCES OF QUOTATIONS (a) Page 2: an excerpt from a statement entitled “Let us work together to promote economic development” delivered by President Hu Jintao at the APEC CEO Summit, held in Lima, Peru, on 21 November 2008 (source: http://www.fmprc.gov.cn/eng/wjdt/zyjh/t524324.htm). (b) Page 40: an excerpt from the message of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to the General Assembly of the United Nations on 26 September 2008 (source: http://www.un.int/india/2008/ind1452.pdf). (c) Page 70: an excerpt from a statement delivered by President Lee Myung-bak as he presided over the first session of the Green Growth Commission of the Republic of Korea, published on 27 February 2009 (source: http://www.futuregov.net/articles/2009/feb/27/green-growth-commission-launched-korea/). (d) Page 92: an excerpt from an exclusive interview with Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong in the Bangkok Post, published 27 February 2009 (source: http://www.bangkokpost.com/news/asian/136919/exclusive-interview-withsingapore-prime-minister-lee-hsien-loong). (e) Page 154: an excerpt from the message of Prime Minister Kevin Rudd to the General Assembly of the United Nations on 26 September 2008 (source: http://www.un.org/ga/63/generaldebate/pdf/australia_en.pdf ). (f) Page 172: an excerpt from a keynote speech delivered by President H. Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono at the APEC CEO Summit, held in Lima, Peru, on 21 November 2008 (source: http://www.presidenri.go.id/ index.php/eng/pidato/2008/11/22/1035.html). xxvii