On the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts: A Survey
... established analytical approaches with up-to-date data on forecasts and outturns and by developing
new methodologies to help draw practical lessons for IMF forecasting. We find that the IMF forecasts
developed for the World Economic Outlook are not consistently biased in one direction or the other,
55838_Ch 07_Executive Board Summary.indd
... Energy tax reform can help reduce negative externalities caused by energy consumption and provide breathing room for rebalancing the tax burden—for example,
by lowering taxes on labor to boost employment.
In developing economies, further reform of energy
subsidies could provide space for productive ...
Zambia: Condemned to debt
... Despite the disadvantage of being land-locked, Zambia was once one of
the wealthiest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This began to change in
the early 1970s. After the oil crisis (increasing the price of imports) and
relative commodity price collapse (reducing the revenue from exports),
Zambia had ...
Crisis Politics: IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe
... which IMF policy prescriptions can be reconciled with democratic politics in the developing
world depends to a large extent on the nature of the broader international economic and political
environment, which shapes the agenda of IMF interventions and sets the broad cost-benefit
parameters of IMF pr ...
Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections
... number of studies have shown that multipliers can exceed 1 in “abnormal” circumstances—in
particular when the economy is in a severe downturn or if the use and/or the transmission of
monetary policy are impaired (see Section II.B). Second, some papers, which use a new “narrative” approach to identif ...
mmi11 Sturm 15004126 en
... member countries signed the Articles of Agreement at first. International trade in goods,
services and especially capital was limited as a consequence of the Great Depression and
World War II. While one of the main objectives of the Fund has remained to help
governments overcome temporary balance of ...
World Economic Outlook: Crisis and Recovery, April 2009
... Moreover, the downturn is truly global: output
per capita is projected to decline in countries
representing three-quarters of the global economy. Growth is projected to reemerge in 2010,
but at 1.9 percent it would be sluggish relative to
These projections are based on an assessment ...
Does the IMF Constrain Health Spending in Poor Countries
... of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations.
The messages are clear but not simple-minded, and the analysis should be
welcomed by all those who have struggled to sort out what the debate is really
about. The group explored, for example, what assumptions about aid flows
Does The IMF Constrain Health Spending in Poor Countries
... governments of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations.
The messages are clear but not simple-minded, and the analysis should be welcomed by all those
who have struggled to sort out what the debate is really about. The group explored, for example,
what assumptions abou ...
The Effect of IMF Programs on Inequal
... The methodological challenge, however, is to establish causality since IMF programs are clearly
not randomly assigned. Extant approaches addressing this problem rely on instrumental variables
(IVs) that are likely to be related to the outcome through channels other than IMF programs and
thus violate ...
Chapter 2. Can Fiscal Policy Stabilize Output?
... size of the response.5 On the other hand, the stabilization coefficient could overestimate the size of the fiscal
response because it also captures the impact on the budget of other economic and financial variables that move
along with output, such as asset prices and interest rates
(see, for exampl ...
new challenges to growth and stability
... years to guard against a deterioration in external conditions. In Chapter 4,
Gustavo Adler and Sebastián Sosa assess the vulnerability of Latin America to a
reversal in commodity prices. They document that the region remains heavily
dependent on commodity exports, and find that a country’s vulnerabi ...
The cyclicality of fiscal policy in South Asia
... Several explanations have been put forward for procyclical fiscal policies
in developing countries. The first one is the ﬁnancial market imperfections
argument, also known as the structural argument. According to this
argument limited integration (or access) to domestic and external financial
+ docx - Harvard University
... plus the two-year ahead inflation rate. We then divide the budget balance forecast (in
levels) by our estimated nominal GDP forecasts. In the case of countries where the fiscal
year differs from the calendar year but only private sector calendar year GDP growth and
inflation forecasts are available, ...
A Development-focused Allocation of the Special Drawing Rights
... There have so far been only two rounds of creation of SDRs, each spread over three
years. The first allocation was in 1970, for a total amount of SDR 9.3 billion, which was
distributed in three equal annual instalments. The most recent allocation, made on
1 January 1981, brought the cumulative total ...
No.334 / August 2010 IIIS Discussion Paper No. 334
... Second, political distortions may generate a procyclical pattern in the fiscal position. For
instance, Tornell and Lane (1999) highlight the voracity effect mechanism. In a political
system with fragmented political power, a positive income shock leads to more intense
lobbying by each powerful group ...
IMF Reform Is Waiting on the United States
... has been a bipartisan and nonpartisan topic. The US administration has proposed to redress the previous failure to enact the
IMF quota and governance reform legislation by incorporating
it in legislation before the US Congress providing $1 billion in
loan guarantees for Ukraine.1 The IMF provision i ...
Public infrastructure investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin
... causes of slow long-term output growth in many Latin American countries. Certainly, fiscal
adjustments have been quite sharp following economic crises in the region; have these periodic
fiscal contractions harmed long-term infrastructure investment? We find that the evidence for
this hypothesis is n ...
Fiscal Rules and Resource Funds in Nonrenewable Resource
... (equivalent to the primary balance in other countries) is the nonresource primary
balance (NRPB). This indicator makes explicit that from a sustainability point of
view, fiscal revenue should exclude nonrenewable resource income on the
grounds that it is more like financing—a transformation of asset ...
The Diffusion of Privatization in the Developing World
... the inevitable result of the hegemonic power of capital and the United States. For both,
countries that have not marketized are not particularly interesting because, in time, they too
will join the bandwagon.
Most political scientists and sociologists, in contrast, are concerned to look for more
The Washington Consensus is a set of 10 relatively specific economic policy prescriptions that is considered to constitute the ""standard"" reform package promoted for crisis-wracked developing countries by Washington, D.C.–based institutions such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, and the US Treasury Department. It was coined in 1989 by English economist John Williamson. The prescriptions encompassed policies in such areas as macroeconomic stabilization, economic opening with respect to both trade and investment, and the expansion of market forces within the domestic economy.Subsequent to Williamson's minting of the phrase, and despite his emphatic opposition, the term Washington Consensus has come to be used fairly widely in a second, broader sense, to refer to a more general orientation towards a strongly market-based approach (sometimes described as market fundamentalism or neoliberalism). In emphasizing the magnitude of the difference between the two alternative definitions, Williamson himself has argued (see ""Origins of Policy Agenda"" and ""Broad Sense"" below) that his ten original, narrowly defined prescriptions have largely acquired the status of ""motherhood and apple pie"" (i.e., are broadly taken for granted), whereas the subsequent broader definition, representing a form of neoliberal manifesto, ""never enjoyed a consensus [in Washington] or anywhere much else"" and can by now reasonably be said to be dead.Discussion of the Washington Consensus has long been contentious. Partly this reflects a lack of agreement over what is meant by the term, in face of the contrast between the broader and narrower definitions outlined above. But there are also substantive differences involved over the merits and consequences of the various policy prescriptions involved. Some of the critics discussed in this article take issue, for example, with the original Consensus's emphasis on the opening of developing countries to global markets, and/or with what they see as an excessive focus on strengthening the influence of domestic market forces, arguably at the expense of key functions of the state. For other commentators reviewed below, the point at issue is less what is included in the Consensus than what is missing, including such areas as institution-building and targeted efforts to improve opportunities for the weakest in society. Despite these areas of controversy, a great many writers and development institutions would by now accept the more general proposition that strategies need to be tailored to the specific circumstances of individual countries.