On the Accuracy and Efficiency of IMF Forecasts: A Survey
... established analytical approaches with up-to-date data on forecasts and outturns and by developing new methodologies to help draw practical lessons for IMF forecasting. We find that the IMF forecasts developed for the World Economic Outlook are not consistently biased in one direction or the other, ...
... established analytical approaches with up-to-date data on forecasts and outturns and by developing new methodologies to help draw practical lessons for IMF forecasting. We find that the IMF forecasts developed for the World Economic Outlook are not consistently biased in one direction or the other, ...
55838_Ch 07_Executive Board Summary.indd
... Energy tax reform can help reduce negative externalities caused by energy consumption and provide breathing room for rebalancing the tax burden—for example, by lowering taxes on labor to boost employment. In developing economies, further reform of energy subsidies could provide space for productive ...
... Energy tax reform can help reduce negative externalities caused by energy consumption and provide breathing room for rebalancing the tax burden—for example, by lowering taxes on labor to boost employment. In developing economies, further reform of energy subsidies could provide space for productive ...
Zambia: Condemned to debt
... Despite the disadvantage of being land-locked, Zambia was once one of the wealthiest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This began to change in the early 1970s. After the oil crisis (increasing the price of imports) and relative commodity price collapse (reducing the revenue from exports), Zambia had ...
... Despite the disadvantage of being land-locked, Zambia was once one of the wealthiest countries in sub-Saharan Africa. This began to change in the early 1970s. After the oil crisis (increasing the price of imports) and relative commodity price collapse (reducing the revenue from exports), Zambia had ...
Crisis Politics: IMF Programs in Latin America and Eastern Europe
... which IMF policy prescriptions can be reconciled with democratic politics in the developing world depends to a large extent on the nature of the broader international economic and political environment, which shapes the agenda of IMF interventions and sets the broad cost-benefit parameters of IMF pr ...
... which IMF policy prescriptions can be reconciled with democratic politics in the developing world depends to a large extent on the nature of the broader international economic and political environment, which shapes the agenda of IMF interventions and sets the broad cost-benefit parameters of IMF pr ...
Size, Determinants, and Use in Macroeconomic Projections
... number of studies have shown that multipliers can exceed 1 in “abnormal” circumstances—in particular when the economy is in a severe downturn or if the use and/or the transmission of monetary policy are impaired (see Section II.B). Second, some papers, which use a new “narrative” approach to identif ...
... number of studies have shown that multipliers can exceed 1 in “abnormal” circumstances—in particular when the economy is in a severe downturn or if the use and/or the transmission of monetary policy are impaired (see Section II.B). Second, some papers, which use a new “narrative” approach to identif ...
mmi11 Sturm 15004126 en
... member countries signed the Articles of Agreement at first. International trade in goods, services and especially capital was limited as a consequence of the Great Depression and World War II. While one of the main objectives of the Fund has remained to help governments overcome temporary balance of ...
... member countries signed the Articles of Agreement at first. International trade in goods, services and especially capital was limited as a consequence of the Great Depression and World War II. While one of the main objectives of the Fund has remained to help governments overcome temporary balance of ...
World Economic Outlook: Crisis and Recovery, April 2009
... Moreover, the downturn is truly global: output per capita is projected to decline in countries representing three-quarters of the global economy. Growth is projected to reemerge in 2010, but at 1.9 percent it would be sluggish relative to past recoveries. These projections are based on an assessment ...
... Moreover, the downturn is truly global: output per capita is projected to decline in countries representing three-quarters of the global economy. Growth is projected to reemerge in 2010, but at 1.9 percent it would be sluggish relative to past recoveries. These projections are based on an assessment ...
Does the IMF Constrain Health Spending in Poor Countries
... of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations. The messages are clear but not simple-minded, and the analysis should be welcomed by all those who have struggled to sort out what the debate is really about. The group explored, for example, what assumptions about aid flows ...
... of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations. The messages are clear but not simple-minded, and the analysis should be welcomed by all those who have struggled to sort out what the debate is really about. The group explored, for example, what assumptions about aid flows ...
![Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects? (Second IMF Research Conference). <![if !supportLineBreakNewLine]> <![endif]>](http://s1.studyres.com/store/data/008826433_1-04df42b714a3eee241ab8d529ca237e6-300x300.png)
Robert Barro and Jong-Wha Lee IMF Programs: Who Is Chosen and What Are the Effects? (Second IMF Research Conference).
... influenced by the dominating power of the United States, the IMF apparently takes politics into account when making decisions on loans to developing countries. These patterns are of considerable interest for their own sake, but we also use them to form instrumental variables to isolate the effects o ...
... influenced by the dominating power of the United States, the IMF apparently takes politics into account when making decisions on loans to developing countries. These patterns are of considerable interest for their own sake, but we also use them to form instrumental variables to isolate the effects o ...
Does The IMF Constrain Health Spending in Poor Countries
... governments of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations. The messages are clear but not simple-minded, and the analysis should be welcomed by all those who have struggled to sort out what the debate is really about. The group explored, for example, what assumptions abou ...
... governments of countries working within IMF programs, and civil society organizations. The messages are clear but not simple-minded, and the analysis should be welcomed by all those who have struggled to sort out what the debate is really about. The group explored, for example, what assumptions abou ...
The Effect of IMF Programs on Inequal
... The methodological challenge, however, is to establish causality since IMF programs are clearly not randomly assigned. Extant approaches addressing this problem rely on instrumental variables (IVs) that are likely to be related to the outcome through channels other than IMF programs and thus violate ...
... The methodological challenge, however, is to establish causality since IMF programs are clearly not randomly assigned. Extant approaches addressing this problem rely on instrumental variables (IVs) that are likely to be related to the outcome through channels other than IMF programs and thus violate ...
Chapter 2. Can Fiscal Policy Stabilize Output?
... size of the response.5 On the other hand, the stabilization coefficient could overestimate the size of the fiscal response because it also captures the impact on the budget of other economic and financial variables that move along with output, such as asset prices and interest rates (see, for exampl ...
... size of the response.5 On the other hand, the stabilization coefficient could overestimate the size of the fiscal response because it also captures the impact on the budget of other economic and financial variables that move along with output, such as asset prices and interest rates (see, for exampl ...
Leveraging Remittances for Economic Development in Developing
... that a positive relationship (even if not substantial) exists between economic growth and remittances. These are outlined in the following sections. ...
... that a positive relationship (even if not substantial) exists between economic growth and remittances. These are outlined in the following sections. ...
new challenges to growth and stability
... years to guard against a deterioration in external conditions. In Chapter 4, Gustavo Adler and Sebastián Sosa assess the vulnerability of Latin America to a reversal in commodity prices. They document that the region remains heavily dependent on commodity exports, and find that a country’s vulnerabi ...
... years to guard against a deterioration in external conditions. In Chapter 4, Gustavo Adler and Sebastián Sosa assess the vulnerability of Latin America to a reversal in commodity prices. They document that the region remains heavily dependent on commodity exports, and find that a country’s vulnerabi ...
ABSTRACT Title of dissertation: ESSAYS ON FISCAL POLICY IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
... cost of the (current or future) tax burden needed to …nance these transfers, because it is borne by the entire polity. I take this logic a step further and study the cyclicality of policies arising from this political structure. In this model, a …scal agent with time-consistent preferences would con ...
... cost of the (current or future) tax burden needed to …nance these transfers, because it is borne by the entire polity. I take this logic a step further and study the cyclicality of policies arising from this political structure. In this model, a …scal agent with time-consistent preferences would con ...
The cyclicality of fiscal policy in South Asia
... Several explanations have been put forward for procyclical fiscal policies in developing countries. The first one is the financial market imperfections argument, also known as the structural argument. According to this argument limited integration (or access) to domestic and external financial market ...
... Several explanations have been put forward for procyclical fiscal policies in developing countries. The first one is the financial market imperfections argument, also known as the structural argument. According to this argument limited integration (or access) to domestic and external financial market ...
+ docx - Harvard University
... plus the two-year ahead inflation rate. We then divide the budget balance forecast (in levels) by our estimated nominal GDP forecasts. In the case of countries where the fiscal year differs from the calendar year but only private sector calendar year GDP growth and inflation forecasts are available, ...
... plus the two-year ahead inflation rate. We then divide the budget balance forecast (in levels) by our estimated nominal GDP forecasts. In the case of countries where the fiscal year differs from the calendar year but only private sector calendar year GDP growth and inflation forecasts are available, ...
A Development-focused Allocation of the Special Drawing Rights
... There have so far been only two rounds of creation of SDRs, each spread over three years. The first allocation was in 1970, for a total amount of SDR 9.3 billion, which was distributed in three equal annual instalments. The most recent allocation, made on 1 January 1981, brought the cumulative total ...
... There have so far been only two rounds of creation of SDRs, each spread over three years. The first allocation was in 1970, for a total amount of SDR 9.3 billion, which was distributed in three equal annual instalments. The most recent allocation, made on 1 January 1981, brought the cumulative total ...
Essays on institutional quality, macroeconomic stabilization, and economic growth in
... (Chavance, 2009) and in doing so (unlike neo-classical school of thought) give greater role to government, both for regulation and for directly involving themselves in markets and/or firms if need be, depending on a particular economy and given sector(s) within it. These specifications of NIE, there ...
... (Chavance, 2009) and in doing so (unlike neo-classical school of thought) give greater role to government, both for regulation and for directly involving themselves in markets and/or firms if need be, depending on a particular economy and given sector(s) within it. These specifications of NIE, there ...
$doc.title
... mistake of thinking that it expresses that states are worse off with IMF conditional loans than they are without it. Yet, this conclusion is incorrect. Rather, the model expresses that s ...
... mistake of thinking that it expresses that states are worse off with IMF conditional loans than they are without it. Yet, this conclusion is incorrect. Rather, the model expresses that s ...
No.334 / August 2010 IIIS Discussion Paper No. 334
... Second, political distortions may generate a procyclical pattern in the fiscal position. For instance, Tornell and Lane (1999) highlight the voracity effect mechanism. In a political system with fragmented political power, a positive income shock leads to more intense lobbying by each powerful group ...
... Second, political distortions may generate a procyclical pattern in the fiscal position. For instance, Tornell and Lane (1999) highlight the voracity effect mechanism. In a political system with fragmented political power, a positive income shock leads to more intense lobbying by each powerful group ...
IMF Reform Is Waiting on the United States
... has been a bipartisan and nonpartisan topic. The US administration has proposed to redress the previous failure to enact the IMF quota and governance reform legislation by incorporating it in legislation before the US Congress providing $1 billion in loan guarantees for Ukraine.1 The IMF provision i ...
... has been a bipartisan and nonpartisan topic. The US administration has proposed to redress the previous failure to enact the IMF quota and governance reform legislation by incorporating it in legislation before the US Congress providing $1 billion in loan guarantees for Ukraine.1 The IMF provision i ...
Public infrastructure investment and fiscal sustainability in Latin
... causes of slow long-term output growth in many Latin American countries. Certainly, fiscal adjustments have been quite sharp following economic crises in the region; have these periodic fiscal contractions harmed long-term infrastructure investment? We find that the evidence for this hypothesis is n ...
... causes of slow long-term output growth in many Latin American countries. Certainly, fiscal adjustments have been quite sharp following economic crises in the region; have these periodic fiscal contractions harmed long-term infrastructure investment? We find that the evidence for this hypothesis is n ...
Fiscal Rules and Resource Funds in Nonrenewable Resource
... (equivalent to the primary balance in other countries) is the nonresource primary balance (NRPB). This indicator makes explicit that from a sustainability point of view, fiscal revenue should exclude nonrenewable resource income on the grounds that it is more like financing—a transformation of asset ...
... (equivalent to the primary balance in other countries) is the nonresource primary balance (NRPB). This indicator makes explicit that from a sustainability point of view, fiscal revenue should exclude nonrenewable resource income on the grounds that it is more like financing—a transformation of asset ...
The Diffusion of Privatization in the Developing World
... the inevitable result of the hegemonic power of capital and the United States. For both, countries that have not marketized are not particularly interesting because, in time, they too will join the bandwagon. Most political scientists and sociologists, in contrast, are concerned to look for more pre ...
... the inevitable result of the hegemonic power of capital and the United States. For both, countries that have not marketized are not particularly interesting because, in time, they too will join the bandwagon. Most political scientists and sociologists, in contrast, are concerned to look for more pre ...