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UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Synthesis of National Experiences with Integrated Development and Climate Policies Kirsten Halsnæs, URC andP.R. Shukla, IIM, Ahmedabad UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Structure •Overview of how sustainable development and climate change perspectives have been applied in different studies. •Lessons from mitigation studies. •Lessons from adaptation studies. •Sustainable development and international climate policy implications. •Cross cutting conclusions. •Suggestions for new activity areas. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Sustainable Development and Climate Change Perspectives Studies vary according to scope and methodological approach: •Scope: •Sectors: Energy, agriculture, forestry, water, infrastructure etc. •Mitigation versus adaptation. •National and international climate policy conclusions. •Approach: •National scenarios and quantiative results. •In depth analysis of case studies. •Policy dialogues UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Development and Mitigation: Energy Climate Adaptation: Energy infrastructure, Component energy, water/agr. links UNEP Risø Bangladesh,Brazil, China, India, Senegal, South Africa Methodological Guidelines Country studies World Development Growing in the Greenhouse World Resources Institute Brazil, China, India, South Africa Summary report NMP, NL Bangladesh, Brazil, China, India, Senegal, South Africa Journal papers SD policies and measures for climate change mitigation Development and Vulnerability and Climate adaptation options in landuse sectors Landuse Component UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment OECD Vulnerability and Development and adaptation Climate Project OECD Environment and Development Egypt, Fiji, Bangladesh, Nepal, Tanzania, Uruguay Summary report Asian Perspectives on Climate Regime Beyond 2012 IGES Japan China, India, Indonesia, Korea, Vietnam Summary report Journal papers The PEW Centre Summary report International policy regimes Development and Climate Change Climate Mitigation. Engaging International and Developing national policy Countries regimes UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Conlusions on the Overview •Particularly large countries like Brazil, China, India, and South Africa have been included. •Many Asian countries have participated. •Very few African and Latin American countries have participated. •Weak link between national studies and international climate policy conclusions. •Relatively few outputs in peer reviewed literature. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Mitigation Focused Studies •Development, Energy and Climate, URC with ”the big four” (Brazil, China, India and South Africa) + Bangladesh and Senegal. •SD PAM’s, WRI with ”the big four” UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Development, Energy and Climate Approach Country study work including assessment of energy policies with regard to implications on MDG’s and climate change. Focal areas for SD indicators: •Costs, benefits and other general economic impacts. •Income generation and distribution. •Energy provision and distribution. •Environmental impacts. •Health impacts of energy use and access to health services. •Education •Local participation. Quantitative and qualitative analysis using scenarios and models UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Focal Study Areas •The role of energy in SD seen in a macroeconomic context and at housholed level. •Social, economic and environmental impacts of energy scenarios. •The impacts of including GHG emission reduction in national policies. Case study results for China, India, and South Africa are shown UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment 250 200 150 100 50 Brazil Denmark South Africa People's Republic of China India 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 0 1971 CO2 per TPES (Indexed 1971=100) 300 UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 Brazil Denmark South Africa People's Republic of China India 2030 2025 2020 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 0 1971 CO2 per GDP (Indexed 1971=100) 160 UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Table 7 Average Production Costs of Fossil Fuel Based Power Production and Electricity Prices Countries Average cost of power production in Average price of power in 2000 2000 (USD cents, 2000 prices/kWh) paid by private consumers (USD cents, 2000 prices/kWh) People's Republic of 0.03 0.06 China # Denmark2 2 25 India 2.8 4.3 South Africa 0.6 1.4 United States * 2.2 8.243 Sources: # NDRC, 2006 * www.eia.doe.gov/cneaf/electricity/epa/fig7p4.html, visited on 14 August 2006. 2 Based on average electricity spot market prices and Energy Statistics 2004 page 43 (EPA, 2005) 3 For residential consumers, Energy Information Administration, Official Energy Statistics from the US government, 2006 UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Table 8 Household Expenditure on Energy for Indian Households in 2000 and Chinese Households in 2004 HH income category Poorest 0-5% 0-10% 10-20% 20-40% 40-60% 60-80% 80-90% Top 90-100% India rural, 2000 Absolute expenditu re (USD, % share of 2000 total HH prices) expenditure 0,46 10,2% 0,51 10,1% 0,62 9,0% 0,73 8,7% 0,97 8,9% 1,15 8,6% 1,44 8,1% 1,79 7,2% India urban, 2000 Absolute expenditure (USD, % share of 2000 total HH prices) expenditure 0,65 10,9% 0,80 10,7% 1,04 10,5% 1,46 10,1% 1,73 9,6% 2,13 8,9% 2,67 7,8% 4,01 5,7% China urban, 2004 Absolute expenditure (USD, % share of 2000 total HH prices) expenditure 3,00 10,3% 3,33 9,8% 4,10 8,7% 4,79 7,9% 5,57 7,2% 6,55 6,6% 7,67 6,0% 10,10 5,0% UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Indexed (1971=100) 1600 People's Republic of China GDP increases to indexed 7031 (RS) and 7013 (AS) 1200 800 400 0 1971 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 GDP (RS) TPES (RS) CO2 (RS) GDP (AS) TPES (AS) CO2 (AS) 2030 UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment India SO2/TPES 400 300 Per capita electricity SO2/TPES 500 China 400 300 200 100 0 Per capita electricity TPES/GDP 200 100 Efficiency of electricity generation (fossil) 0 Efficiency of electricity generation (fossil) CO2/GDP Investments in new power plants 2010 CO2/GDP Investments in new power plants CO2/TPES Renewable share in power generation 2000 TPES/GDP CO2/TPES Renewable share in power generation 2020 2000 2030 SO2/TPES 400 South Africa 300 Per capita electricity TPES/GDP 200 100 Efficiency of electricity generation (fossil) 0 CO2/GDP Investments in new power plants CO2/TPES Renewable share in power generation 2000 2010 2020 2030 2010 2020 2030 UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Policy Impacts -China Clean Coal Technologies will provide: •Energy security. •Large employment to low income families that are employed with the production of the technologies (7.6 mill people in 2004 and 7.8 mill. people in 2030). •Establishment of a strong position for China on international markets for cleaner coal technologies. •Reduction in local and global emissions. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment SD Policies and Measures - Approach SD PAM’s are defined as policies and measures taken by a country in pursuit of its domestic policy objectives. Criteria for SD PAM’s: •Specific national development objectives. •Can include specific legislative or executive acts, regulations, various instruments, and public-private partnership. Solely private projects or initiatives are excluded. •GHG emissions should be reduced. •Suggested as a basis for climate change commitments. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment SD PAM Case Study Results •China: Motorization trends. •India: Rural electrification. •South Africa: Carbon capture and storage. •Brazil: Biofuels for transport. •Issues include energy security, non-energy sectors, international agreements/finance. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Adaptation Focused Studies OECD project Bridge Over Troubled Water •Case studies for Egypt, Fiji, Bangladesh, Nepal, Tanzania, and Uruguay. •General lessons: •Climate Change is already affecting development. •Future climate change may also need consideration in development planning. •A significant portion of development assistance is directed at climate sensitive sectors. Range 50-65% in Nepal to 12-26% in Tanzania. •Development activities routinely overlook climate change and often also variability. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Adaptation Focused Studies, Continued Proposed activities: •Making climate information more relevant (including short term forecasts and variability). •Developing and applying climate risk screening tools (including at project level). •Identifying and using appropriate entry points for climate information (EIA, land use planning). •Shifting emphasis to implementation. •Encouraging meaningfull coordination and the sharing of good practices (private/public, international climate policies). UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment International Climate Policies Asian consultations on climate regime beyond. 2012, IGES. Dialogues with China, India, Indonesia, Korea, and Vietnam. Ideas for strenthening the future climate regime from an Asian perspective: •Developmental concerns, in particular energy security, should be addressed as a priority. Due consideration of equity. •Flexibility in accomodating national conditions. Mitigation and adaptation differentiation. •CDM projects with SD impacts. •Mainstreaming of adaptation. •Finance including flexible inter-governmental approaches and private finance. •Capacity sthrengtening for Asian negotiatos and NGO’s. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Cross-cutting Conclusions •Mitigation policies have to be framed in the context of SD. •Large growth in energy consumption is expected. Due to energy security and costs this can imply increasing CO2 intensity of energy consumption. •GHG emission reduction policies need special consideration beyond baseline issues. •Energy access and affordability issues are to be integral elements. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Cross-cutting Conclusions •Climate change impacts already today influence major development priorities. •Very limited information and capacities are available for mainstreaming. •Mainstreaming need to be anchored in EIA and national planning, integrated in project implementation now. •SD framework is still not deeveloped as a framework that can be used in international climate cooperation despite various attempts are done by SD-PAM’s, Asian dialogues and other initiatives. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Proposed New Activities • Link SD and Climate scenarios with stabilisation scenarios and future international scenario work. UNEP Collaborating Centre on Energy and Environment Proposed Activities, Continued….. •Integrate adaptation and mitigation studies: •Methodological framework. •Case examples on agriculture/energy, water/agriculture, energy/agriculture, biomass etc. •Emphasis social impact analysis e.g. using household expenditure data and time series. •Integrated local environmental impacts and health issues. •Address key energy sector issues including: •Energy security. •Finance. •The future role of coal and renewable energy. •Draw general conclusions about replicability of case study lessons. •Link to international climate policy regimes.