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THEIR SAY
Powerful new climate logic
PHILLIP
O’NEILL
@philliponeill
FOR the past few decades, the
world has been worried by the
prospect of running out of oil and
gas. How would we fuel our cars, run
our factories, make plastics?
Now, says Deutsche Bank, the
problem has shifted. The threat of
climate change could mean we need
to leave our fossil fuels in the ground,
unburnt, locked away forever.
The phrase ‘‘unburnt energy
resources’’ has burst into the
vocabulary of big business and their
financial advisers.
Banking giant Citibank warns that
mining companies such as BHP
Billiton and Rio Tinto risk losing
half of the value on their balance
sheets that comes from coal assets.
The global advisory firm Towers
Watson advises investors to be wary
of outlays on new mining and
drilling operations, fearing that
extra capacity could become
stranded.
Here in London, where I’m
currently working at University
College London – the governor of
the Bank of England warns fossil
fuel companies not to count on
being able to sell their stock of
reserves.
And down at Westminster the
other day, a packed audience of
politicians listened to UCL
Professor Paul Ekins explain why
the world needs to leave vast
amounts of coal, oil and gas
reserves unburnt.
The other day, I tracked down
Professor Ekins’ co-researcher, Dr
Christophe McGlade. As it happens,
we work in the same building.
McGlade is a young scientist. He
hails from Belfast in Northern
TROUBLING: Responding to climate change is a high-stakes game.
Ireland. His dad’s occupation is
engineer, his mum’s is teacher. He
has two smart brothers. One is an
engineer in Adelaide. The other is a
manager in a London food company.
McGlade did his first degree at
Cambridge and then his PhD here
at UCL. McGlade has the gift of the
young: they see the world
differently.
As a physicist, McGlade knows
the climate science well: If the level
of carbon dioxide in the
atmosphere forces the average
global temperature to rise more
than 2 degrees above pre-industrial
times then living conditions on our
planet could change for the worse
in dramatic ways.
But how do we get the world to
limit carbon dioxide emissions?
The success of emissions trading
schemes and carbon taxes is dismal.
And renewable energy targets have
slow take-up rates and consumers
hate the secret subsidies passed on
in their power bills.
What if, asks McGlade, we turned
our attention from targeting the
production of carbon dioxide to
targeting the production of coal, oil
and gas, for these are the fuels that
produce carbon dioxide when they
are burnt?
So McGlade and Professor Ekins
took up the task of estimating how
much coal, oil and gas should
remain unburnt in order to limit the
warming of the world’s atmosphere
to 2 degrees.
Their estimates are now
published in Nature, the world’s
most esteemed science journal.
Their arguments are sending
shudders through the offices of
energy companies worldwide.
They should also be read closely
in resources regions such as the
Hunter.
Coal, say McGlade and Ekins, is
the first energy source to leave
unburnt because coal is the most
inefficient of the fossil fuels for
generating energy and the most
intensive emitter of carbon dioxide.
In order to avoid the 2 degree
threshold, they say Australia’s black
coal output over the next 40 years
should be limited to just 100 million
tonnes a year. This would be a
massive reduction from Australia’s
current level of production, which is
about 450 million tonnes yearly.
About 60 million tonnes of this is
used for electricity production. The
rest is exported.
To meet the carbon budget that
keeps the planet below the
2 degrees threshold means, say
McGlade and Ekins, that 97 per cent
of Australia’s proven black coal
resources is never burnt.
This would mean applying the
handbrake to Australian coal
production. Mining and electricity
generation in the Hunter would be
seriously affected as a small
national production quota is
divvied up.
Already moves are afoot to
convert the McGlade and Ekins
work into international treaties.
Discussions are inevitable at the
United Nations climate change
conference in Paris in December.
Responding to the threat of
climate change is a high-stakes
game. Leaving coal unburnt will be
argued for as a genuine way to limit
carbon dioxide emissions.
The effects on the Hunter of
limiting coal burning would be
enormous. Jobs will go from mining
and electricity generation, and from
rail and port operators, contractors
and so on. Governments will lose
rich royalties. The earnings of
Australia’s biggest companies will
take a severe hit.
We all need to be familiar with
McGlade’s article in Nature. We
need to take seriously what a new
breed of bold young scientists with
keen minds and a concern for the
stability of the planet’s climate are
telling us.
Because for our region, the stakes
are double those of anywhere else.
Phillip O’Neill is a professorial
research fellow at the University of
Western Sydney
Labor backs science on coal dust issue
Let science decide how to
solve coal dust problem,
writes Luke Foley.
There are few more emotive issues
in the Hunter than whether coal
trains should be covered.
The debate has flared in recent
years. The mining industry in one
corner, so intrinsic to the Hunter’s
identity and economy; communities
along the rail corridor in the other,
entitled to protection from
industry’s ill effects.
The final element has been the
Newcastle Herald’s campaign. This
has brought the welcome focus
NSW needed to settle on a policy
and get it right.
On Friday, I confirmed that Labor
will show new leadership on this
issue that has so riven the Hunter.
If elected in March, we will
authorise the state’s Chief Scientist
Professor Mary O’Kane to
investigate and advise on the health
impacts of coal dust pollution – and
we will accept those
recommendations.
For the first time, NSW will
expedite a process that gives
primacy to the scientific evidence.
In my mind, this is a critical first
step to ensure any future policy to
cover coal wagons attracts full
community backing.
The mining industry believes
wood-fired smoke is a bigger
problem than uncovered coal
trains. The Hunter Community
Environment Centre are among
those who have produced
disturbing countervailing evidence.
The Environmental Protection
Authority suggests the main
predictor of air particle pollution is
not covered or uncovered coal
trains, but whether trains run at all.
Professor O’Kane – fresh off a
rigorous report into coal seam gas –
is universally respected. Ideally,
her investigation would include a
survey of international data on coal
dust impacts and policy responses.
It is critical that such a study be
independent. All sides of the
argument should be prepared to put
their case to the Chief Scientist and
abide by her findings.
Getting the right policy has been
my concern for some time. This is
why I initiated a parliamentary
inquiry into the performance of the
Environment Protection Authority
which has suffered a trust erosion
under the Baird government. The
inquiry report, tabled last Friday, is
consistent with Labor’s position.
If the Chief Scientist finds that
coal wagons should be covered,
then a Foley Labor Government
will codify this as part of the licence
conditions for coal trains.
Labor’s approach should be
contrasted with the Coalition, whose
Upper House members voted against
the report’s main recommendation.
Think about that. In the event the
Chief Scientist says cover the wagons,
the Coalition will refuse.
The Greens won’t wait for an
authoritative distillation of the
science. If Greens policy is
implemented there will be no
wagons to cover.
Labor is concerned by the 8 per
cent unemployment rate in the
Hunter and mining downturn. We are
not prepared to whack another cost
on the coal industry lightly.
Human health has to trump all
other considerations. If the Chief
Scientist finds that in the interests of
human health, the coal wagons need
to be covered, Labor will do it.
Luke Foley is the NSW Opposition
Leader
fromtheherald.com.au
■ A $15 million expansion and
refurbishment of Newcastle’s
Christ Church Cathedral has met
stiff opposition on the herald
website.
That is neither worth a million
dollars nor a makeover. The
correct word is desecration.
Guest 007
I am not religious BUT this is an
absolute JOKE. I am also not a
conservatist BUT this is one
building in Newcastle That should
NOT be messed around with.
spectator
I think it is a great looking design
concept. Shame the concept
plans look like they were done
using Minecraft but there is
enough there to imagine what it
could look like. Hope they can get
the funding to pull it off, seems a
lot of building for $15M, good
value if it can come in at that
price.
rob ward
I like how the glass allows the
original fabric of the building to be
visible.
BeeBee
Are you kidding? I have no
problem with development and
couldnt care less if the Cathedral
fell down tomorrow, but that
design is an abomination. ’Dubai
on the Hill’
Fred
fromfacebook
■ Despite ideal conditions and a
strong crowd at Merewether
Beach, Surfest organisers
halted the competition on
Saturday afternoon following a
shark sighting.
Let em surf !! There pros they can
handle it !! Puts a whole new twist
on a knockout competition !!
Imagine the coverage we would
get then on the international
scene if one of em gets taken or
bitten!! Priceless !!! Extreme
surfing at its best !!
Ian Glover
It’s going to happen more and
more since sharks are a
protected species and their
numbers are on the rise.
Craig Mitchell
More chance of dying in plane
crash. Saying that tho its a bit
more frequent but odds low.
Angela Jo
onlinepoll
■ Today’s question
Would you like to see Lambton
Pool operate year-round?
■ Yesterday’s result
Do you like the plans for Christ
Church Cathedral?
TTHE HUNTER REMEMBERS Centenary of World War I Compiled by David Dial More at theherald.com.au
Headlines: February 16, 1915
Enlistments on this day
Editorial. Germany’s threat.
German attack in Alsace region.
Belgium’s forces. Raising another army.
Egypt tranquil. Approve British rule.
Russian retreat in East Prussia.
The Kaiser’s orders.
Matters in Sydney. Record recruiting.
Private Basil Cecil Barwick, Hinton, 5th
Australian Field Ambulance, C Section
Shoeing Smith William Thomas Flood, Stroud,
12th Australian Light Horse Regiment
Private Trevor Reginald Hallett, Singleton, 1st
Infantry Battalion, 8th Reinforcements
Private Bramwell Harold Bismarck Hayes,
Paterson, 18th Infantry Battalion
Private Joseph Richard Lewis, Greta, 18th
Infantry Battalion
Private Albert Roy Martin, Maitland, 17th
Infantry Battalion
Private Frederick Hunter Millard, Singleton,
18th Infantry Battalion
Private Albert Arthur Morris, Dora Creek , 9th
Infantry Battalion, 3rd Reinforcements
Lance Corporal Reginald Arthur Nelmes,
Hamilton, 18th Infantry Battalion
Private Sidney George Paul, West Maitland,
5th Australian Field Ambulance
Private James Felix Regan, Newcastle, 2nd
Australian Light Horse Regiment, 8th
Reinforcements
Corporal James Matthew Rigby, Wickham,
17th Infantry Battalion
Private Robert Ferguson Robertson, Apple
Tree Flat, 19th Infantry Battalion
No
62.87%
Yes
37.13%
Monday, February 16, 2015 NEWCASTLE HERALD 11