Download Climate change, emerging trends in global energy use and the role

Climate change, emerging trends
in global energy use and the role
of CCS
Kelly Thambimuthu FTSE,
Chairman,
IEA Greenhouse Gas Program,
(Emeritus Scientist, CO2CRC, Australia)
[email protected]
Outline
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Climate Change
Global energy use and emissions
GHG Abatement options
The role for CCS
Climate change – to date
IPCC_AR4 _2007
Stern Review - Projected impacts
of climate change
Expected
Pathway
Current Energy
Policies
Observations
to Date
Expected Pathway
New Energy
Policies Scenario
Pathways towards stabilization
Characteristics of stabilization scenarios
Stabilization
level
(ppm CO2-eq)
Global mean
temp. increase
at equilibrium
(ºC)
Year CO2
needs to
peak
Year CO2
emissions
back at 2000
level
Reduction in 2050
CO2 emissions
compared to 2000
445 – 490
2.0 – 2.4
2000 - 2015
2000- 2030
-85 to -50
490 – 535
2.4 – 2.8
2000 - 2020
2000- 2040
-60 to -30
535 – 590
2.8 – 3.2
2010 - 2030
2020- 2060
-30 to +5
590 – 710
3.2 – 4.0
2020 - 2060
2050- 2100
+10 to +60
710 – 855
4.0 – 4.9
2050 - 2080
+25 to +85
855 – 1130
4.9 – 6.1
2060 - 2090
+90 to +140
Mitigation efforts over the next 2-3 decades will have a
large impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization
levels
IPCC_AR4 _2007
Stern Review - CO2 reduction for
stabilization scenarios 450-550 ppm CO2e
Dollars per barrel (2009)
International oil price assumptions –
World Energy Outlook 2010
140
Current Policies Scenario
120
New Policies Scenario
100
450 Scenario
80
60
40
20
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 2035
The age of cheap oil is over, though policy action could bring lower
international prices than would otherwise be the case
Growth in Energy Demand – NPS
World Energy Outlook 2011
From IEA WEO 2011
Importance of renewables & gas in
increased energy use - WEO 2011
Gas grows nearly twice as fast as total
energy…..WEO 2011 Gas Supplement
Mtoe
World primary energy demand by fuel in the GAS Scenario
5 000
Oil
Gas
4 000
Coal
Biomass
3 000
Nuclear
2 000
Other renewables
Hydro
1 000
0
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030 2035
Gas overtakes coal before 2030, meets one quarter of global energy demand by 2035 –
demand grows 2% annually, compared with just 1.2% for total energy
Power sector drives gas demand
– WEO 2011 Gas Supplement
Change in power generation by fuel in the GAS scenario, 2010-2035
Gas
Wind
Other renewables
Coal
Hydro
Nuclear
Oil
-1 000
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
TWh
Total electricity demand increases 70% by 2035, underpinned by a near doubling of
gas-fired generation – but renewables and nuclear still account for more than half of
new capacity added globally
Overall value of subsidies for
growth in renewables – WEO 2011
Are we entering a Golden Age of Gas ?
- WEO 2011 Gas Supplement
 Objectives of the report:
 Examine factors that could result in a more prominent role for gas
 Assess implications for all fuels, energy security & climate change
 Key drivers of the GAS Scenario
 Widespread development of unconventional gas
 Lower gas prices
 Gas targets in China’s 12th Five-Year Plan
 Reduced growth of nuclear energy
 Increased deployment of natural gas vehicles
 WEO-2010 New Policies Scenario serves as benchmark for
comparison
Natural gas: recoverable unconventional
resources match conventional – WEO 2011 Gas
Enhances security of supply: resources double and exceed 250 years of current production;
while in each region, resources exceed 75 years of current consumption
The sources of natural gas supply
- WEO 2011
Environmental concerns with
unconventional gas
 Existing regulatory regimes are being tested
 Hydraulic fracturing: water use, contamination & disposal
 Greenhouse-gas emissions
 But regulatory & operational best practices can mitigate the risks
 Ensuring gas, water & chemicals cannot enter other
formations
 Minimising water use
 Treating & disposing of water appropriately
 Limiting gas venting
 Using best practice, “well-to-burner” emissions from shale gas
production are 3.5% higher than from conventional gas
CO2 emissions drop, but only slightly
- WEO 2011 Gas Supplement
Gt
CO2 emissions in the GAS Scenario compared with the
WEO 2010, New Policies Scenario – in 2035
36.5
Increase due to:
Higher energy demand
36.0
Less nuclear
35.5
Less renewables
35.0
Reduction due to:
Substitution of coal & oil by gas
34.5
34.0
New
Policies
Scenario
GAS
Scenario
CO2 emissions are just 160 Mt lower than the New Policies Scenario in 2035.
Replacement of coal & oil by gas cuts emissions by 740 Mt, but offset by other effects
– but with emissions remaining on pathway to 650 ppm and 3.5 C rise
The door to 2oC is closing
- WEO 2011
Projected
Emissions Pathway
of the Current
Policies Scenario
Projected
Emissions Level
Point of the 3.5oC
New Policies
Scenario
Cutting energy emissions in support of 2050
climate stabilisation goals at 450 ppm CO2e –
based on the 2008 World Energy Outlook
-12Gt (25%)
Gap will be
less than
48Gt
A revision expected to this IEA ETP 2008 energy technology outlook scenario
Requires a portfolio of options to
reduce CO2 emissions
Carbon Neutral Energy
H2 Economy (?),
De-carbonised electricity
Conservation, efficiency
and lower carbon fuels
Nuclear fission
& Fusion (?)
Renewables
CO2 capture
& storage and low
emission coal & gas
Fossil Fuels
The rationale for CO2 (carbon) Capture
and Storage (CCS)
• With promised new policies, global emissions increase
by 2050, leading to a 650 ppmv, 3.5oC temperature rise
- WEO 2011
• CCS can provide one-fifth of the needed CO2
reductions in 2050 to peg temperature rise to around
2oC (450 ppmv scenario) – WEO and ETP 2008
• Without CCS, cost of stabilization rises by 70% - WEO
and ETP 2008
• CCS is the only low-carbon solution for gas/coal,
cement, and iron & steel sectors
CCS is not just “clean coal”
Coal power will only make up around 40% of stored CO2 emissions in 2050
(WEO and ETP 2008)
From IEA WEO 2008 & ETP 2008
Energy demand is also driven by
soaring transport - WEO 2011
Options for the development of low
emission plants with CCS
Centralised power and
industrial plants
Combustion
Gasification
Gas, Coal
and/or
Biomass
CO2 to
storage
Distributed energy
& products
Chemical
products
Distributed
heat & power
CO2
capture
Chemicals
Hydrogen
Liquid Fuels
Transport
vehicles
Power
Generation
Very favourable for gas to liquid fuels, requires
biomass offsets for coal derived transport fuels
Electricity
Technology Maturity of CCS Integrated
Power Plant (Gas & Coal)
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Power generation with post combustion capture
– SC/USC pulverised coal and NGCC power plants are reliable and proven
– Scale up of solvent capture units/integration with power cycle is unproven.
Power generation with pre-combustion capture
– IGCC for coal (1 GWe) is near commercial and proving reliability, better
experience with 3 GWe of IGCC capacity on oil and petcoke. No experience to
date with reforming/POX/ATR based natural gas power plants
– Solvent capture units for CO2 available at scale, integration and power block
hydrogen utilisation issues
Power generation with oxy-fuel combustion
– No proven experience of commercial scale operation of pulverised coal plants in
an oxyfuel combustion mode – the issue is “confidence building”
– Large scale air separation units for O2 production proven and reliable.
– Some development needed for tail end CO2 purification
– CO2 or hybrid turbines do not exist for oxy-fuel combined cycles
All in need of work to reduce the energy penalty and cost of capture
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Thank you
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