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Environmental Science and Technology for Public Policy Symposium on Technology Innovation for Sustainable Prosperity: A memorial tribute to Vicki Norberg-Bohm Rosina Bierbaum Dean and Professor September 23, 2005 LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE Science is not the loudest voice Timing is all An unsustainable trend is unsustainable All “missing” research can’t be done at once Need a long-term vision and collective action LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all An unsustainable trend is unsustainable All “missing” research can’t be done at once Need a long-term vision and collective action U.S. Congressional Office of Technology Assessment Congress President Appropriations Subcommittees OMB $ $ NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE DOC(NOAA) and other agencies Plenty of advice Congress President OSTP National Academies (NAS/NAE/IOM) OMB $ Appropriations Subcommittees Expert testimony $ PCAST NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE DOC(NOAA) and other agencies Expert Advisory Committees Plenty of advice—and pressure! Special Interests President OSTP Congress Media National Academies (NAS/NAE/IOM) OMB Media PCAST Media Industry Special Interests Consumers $ $ NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE DOC(NOAA) and other agencies Appropriations Subcommittees Disciplines Expert Advisory Committees Lobbyists Expert testimony Increasing Confidence in the Science •IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could be largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made greenhouse warming. •IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human influence on global climate. •IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human activities. Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature for: LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal An unsustainable trend is unsustainable All “missing” research can’t be done at once Need a long-term vision and collective action Development of International Climate Change Regime 1988 1992 1997 2005 ????? IPCC established Framework Convention (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol Scientific assessment Non-binding aim Binding emissions target LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it All “missing” research can’t be done at once Need a long-term vision and collective action The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet Demand Side Measures Reductions in 2015 as a percent of 1987 emission 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Shell efficiences New lighting HVAC equipm ent Water heat & appliances Cogeneration Buildings Office equipm ent Retrofit lighting Process changes ISTIG cogeneration Efficient m otors Fuel sw itching Housekeeping Industry Industrial lighting Retrofit lighting New auto MPG Mode shifting New light truck MPG Traffic flow /55 m ph Transport Non-highw ay efficiency VMT reduction Operation & m aint. Moderat Controls Incremental reductions w ith tough controls Carbon Emissions Under the Base Case, Moderate, & Tough Scenarios Emissions reductions from 2015 base 150% 1.5 125% 100% 1 75% Offset from Forestry measures 0.5 50% 25% 0 1987 Base 2015 Base B uildings Industry 2015 Moderate Transpo rt Electric Utilities 2015 Tough Percent of 1987 Emissions Billion metric tons/year of carbon 2 LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it All “missing” research can’t be done at once — need assessments Need a long-term vision and collective action Climate Change Research Needs •Regional impacts --What does it mean in my place? • Interactions with other environmental stresses --so that “fixes” will not exacerbate other problems; worry about “tipping points” • Extreme Events and their consequences --because they will increase in the future and we do not handle them well now Galveston, Texas Galveston, Texas # # # 60- ye ar E RF # # # # # # # 30- ye ar E RF # # # # # # # # # Curre nt ERF # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # 4247 Pelican Lane # # # # # # # # Ke y: ERF = erosion ref erence feature AAER = average annual erosion rate BFE = base flood elevation 30- yr width = 250 ft AA ER = 8.5 ft/year Zone = VE BFE = 20 The Heinz Center Research will get Squeezed in Future Budgets LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it All “missing” research can’t be done at once — need assessments Need a long-term vision and collective action The government must lead…… Renewables = 4 wedges Efficiency = 4 wedges Technology Development Federal energy R&D spending has declined over the past 25 years. Changing Landscape • • • • G-8 Communique Sense of the Senate Resolution Senate Energy Bill—RPS, RFS Pressure coming from – Cities – States – Mainstream corporate America – International – Drumbeat of science – New voices: Evangelicals Renewable Power (RPS) and Fuels (RFS) Standards Hawaii Power (20) Fuels (5) Both (3) Corporate Commitments and Results 10% reduction $650 million saved 69% reduction $2 billion saved 10% reduction “It’s made us more competitive” 5% reduction Absolute cap 35% reduction $200 million saved 19% reduction 10% reduction 72% reduction 25% reduction $100 million saved 65% reduction $791 million saved 9% reduction 6% reduction 37% reduction 13% reduction 17% reduction 1% reduction $1.5 billion clean tech R&D 25% reduction