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Transcript
Environmental Science and Technology for
Public Policy
Symposium on Technology Innovation for Sustainable Prosperity:
A memorial tribute to Vicki Norberg-Bohm
Rosina Bierbaum
Dean and Professor
September 23, 2005
LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE
SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE
Science is not the loudest voice
Timing is all
An unsustainable trend is unsustainable
All “missing” research can’t be done at once
Need a long-term vision and collective action
LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE
SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE
Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely
Timing is all
An unsustainable trend is unsustainable
All “missing” research can’t be done at once
Need a long-term vision and collective action
U.S. Congressional Office of
Technology Assessment
Congress
President
Appropriations
Subcommittees
OMB
$
$
NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE
DOC(NOAA) and
other agencies
Plenty of advice
Congress
President
OSTP
National Academies
(NAS/NAE/IOM)
OMB
$
Appropriations
Subcommittees
Expert
testimony
$
PCAST
NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE
DOC(NOAA) and
other agencies
Expert
Advisory
Committees
Plenty of advice—and pressure!
Special
Interests
President
OSTP
Congress
Media
National Academies
(NAS/NAE/IOM)
OMB
Media
PCAST
Media
Industry
Special
Interests
Consumers
$
$
NASA,EPA, NSF, DOE
DOC(NOAA) and
other agencies
Appropriations
Subcommittees
Disciplines
Expert
Advisory
Committees
Lobbyists
Expert
testimony
Increasing Confidence in the Science
•IPCC 1990: The observed increase [in temperatures] could be
largely due to natural variability; alternatively this variability and
other man-made factors could have offset a still larger man-made
greenhouse warming.
•IPCC 1995: The balance of evidence suggests a discernible human
influence on global climate.
•IPCC 2001: There is new and stronger evidence that most of the
warming observed over the last 50 years is due to human
activities.
Variations of the Earth’s Surface Temperature for:
LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE
SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE
Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely
Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal
An unsustainable trend is unsustainable
All “missing” research can’t be done at once
Need a long-term vision and collective action
Development of International Climate
Change Regime
1988
1992
1997
2005
?????
IPCC
established
Framework
Convention
(UNFCCC)
Kyoto
Protocol
Scientific
assessment
Non-binding
aim
Binding
emissions
target
LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE
SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE
Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely
Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal
An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it
All “missing” research can’t be done at once
Need a long-term vision and collective action
The Challenge: Sustainable Management of an Ever-Changing Planet
Demand Side Measures
Reductions in 2015 as a percent of 1987 emission
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Shell efficiences
New lighting
HVAC equipm ent
Water heat & appliances
Cogeneration
Buildings
Office equipm ent
Retrofit lighting
Process changes
ISTIG cogeneration
Efficient m otors
Fuel sw itching
Housekeeping
Industry
Industrial lighting
Retrofit lighting
New auto MPG
Mode shifting
New light truck MPG
Traffic flow /55 m ph
Transport
Non-highw ay efficiency
VMT reduction
Operation & m aint.
Moderat Controls
Incremental reductions w ith tough controls
Carbon Emissions Under the Base Case, Moderate,
& Tough Scenarios
Emissions
reductions
from 2015
base
150%
1.5
125%
100%
1
75%
Offset from
Forestry
measures
0.5
50%
25%
0
1987 Base
2015 Base
B uildings
Industry
2015 Moderate
Transpo rt
Electric Utilities
2015 Tough
Percent of 1987 Emissions
Billion metric tons/year of carbon
2
LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE
SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE
Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely
Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal
An unsustainable trend is unsustainable —
act to change it
All “missing” research can’t be done at once — need assessments
Need a long-term vision and collective action
Climate Change Research Needs
•Regional impacts
--What does it mean in my place?
• Interactions with other environmental stresses
--so that “fixes” will not exacerbate other
problems; worry about “tipping points”
• Extreme Events and their consequences
--because they will increase in the future and
we do not handle them well now
Galveston,
Texas
Galveston, Texas
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60- ye ar E RF
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30- ye ar E RF
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Curre nt ERF
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4247 Pelican Lane
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Ke y:
ERF = erosion ref erence feature
AAER = average annual erosion rate
BFE = base flood elevation
30- yr width = 250 ft
AA ER = 8.5 ft/year
Zone = VE
BFE = 20
The Heinz Center
Research will get Squeezed in Future Budgets
LESSONS FROM WORKING AT THE
SCIENCE/POLICY INTERFACE
Science is not the loudest voice — so use it wisely
Timing is all — bad timing can be lethal
An unsustainable trend is unsustainable — act to change it
All “missing” research can’t be done at once — need
assessments
Need a long-term vision and collective action
The government must lead……
Renewables
= 4 wedges
Efficiency
= 4 wedges
Technology Development
Federal energy R&D spending has declined over
the past 25 years.
Changing Landscape
•
•
•
•
G-8 Communique
Sense of the Senate Resolution
Senate Energy Bill—RPS, RFS
Pressure coming from
– Cities
– States
– Mainstream corporate
America
– International
– Drumbeat of science
– New voices: Evangelicals
Renewable Power (RPS) and Fuels (RFS) Standards
Hawaii
Power (20)
Fuels (5)
Both (3)
Corporate Commitments and Results
10% reduction
$650 million saved
69% reduction
$2 billion saved
10% reduction
“It’s made us
more competitive”
5% reduction
Absolute cap
35% reduction
$200 million saved
19% reduction
10% reduction
72% reduction
25% reduction
$100 million saved
65% reduction
$791 million saved
9% reduction
6% reduction
37% reduction
13% reduction
17% reduction
1% reduction
$1.5 billion clean tech R&D
25% reduction