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Churches Together in Brundall February 29th 2012 The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future? Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia 1 The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future? Genesis 1:26 “ ......God made man to have dominion of the earth” Some versions “ ....... God made man ruler over the earth” ? Dominion ? Rule ?? Jesus taught by challenging people to think and ponder Matthew: 19:21 - the parable of the Rich Man “.... Go and sell all you have ..........” “......... It is harder for a rich person to enter the Kingdom of God than for a camel to go through the eye of a needle” A good teacher leaves the audience with something to ponder not to tell his students what they should do. Mark 12:17. “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and to God the things that are God’s “ - demonstrates joined up thinking prompts us to think of the consequence of our actions. - In Bhuddism the Pali Canon urges believers in that faith to think 2 about the consequences of their actions The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future Each person in the UK is continuously using 5kW resulting in the emission of 9 tonnes per annum. In America twice as much energy is consumed Developed Countries constitute just over 10% of World’s Population >>Consume over 50% of energy and other resources Is this fair? 20% of population consume < 5% of resources and the majority in this group do not have access to clean drinking water Is this fair? What can we do about it? – it seems like an impossible task • • • • • A Brief Resume of Climate Change and Overview of Energy Demand Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK Reducing Demand through Awareness and good Management Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future 3 Conclusions and Reflections Increasing Occurrence of Drought 4 4 Increasing Occurrence of Flood 5 5 Climate Change: Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003 تغير المناخ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب1979 - 2003 • Summer ice coverage of Arctic Polar Region • NASA satellite imagery • الصيف الجليد في القطب الشمالي تغطية المنطقة القطبيه • ناسا الصور الفضاءيه 2003 1979 •20% reduction in 24 years •20 ٪ سنوات24 تخفيض في Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html 6 6 Is Global Warming natural or man-made? Natural causes • Earth’s Orbit • Sunspot Activity • Volcanic Eruptions • Etc. Reasonable agreement up to ~ 1960 Man-made causes do not show particularly good agreement in early part of period. BUT including both manmade and natural gives good agreement 7 Global Surface Temperatures In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods. Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years But why do people not account for the record breaking high temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc? 5th Warmest for January 8 Temperature variations in East Anglia Temperature rise in East Anglia over last 50 years is unequivocal 16 Mean Temperature (oC) 14 12 10 • Winter: October – March: • Summer: April to September • Compared to 1960 – in 2010, – 13.1% less heating needed – And 106% more cooling. 8 6 4 2 0 1960 summer 1970 1980 winter 1990 annual 2000 2010 Temperature Deviation deg C 0.60 0.40 0.20 below average above average Trend Line 2010 was one a particularly warm year despite cold spells in Europe in January and December 0.00 -0.20 -0.40 -0.60 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 NASA says it tied as being warmest www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_1 1-014_Warmest_Year.htm 9 What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem? 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Developing EU Other OECD UK France Transition Oil Producing Pakistan India Namibia Brazil Turkey China Mexico Lithuania Sweden Switzerland France Ukraine South_Africa Libya Norway Italy Greece UK Denmark Japan Germany Russia Netherlands US UAE Qatar tonnes/capita How does UK compare with other countries? Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others? Per capita Carbon Emissions 10 10 Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions. •Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including fuel extraction, fabrication and transport. Fuel Approximate Comments emission factor per kWh Coal Oil Depending on grade and efficiency of power station ~800-900 Depending on grade and efficiency of power station Gas (Steam) ~600g Gas (CCGT) 400 – 430g Nuclear Renewables • • ~900 – 1000g 5 – 10g ~0 Assuming CCGT – lower value for Yarmouth Depending on reactor type For wind, PV, hydro Transmission/Distribution losses in UK ~ 8-8.5% In India ~ 20 – 25% 11 Poland India Australia Libya China Italy 800 Czech Republic Other OECD USA Oil Exporting Denmark EU Portugal 1000 Developing Germany UK Netherlands Japan Spain UAE Qatar Luxembourg Belgium Austria France 600 Sweden Switzerland Norway gms CO2 / kWH Carbon Emissions and Electricity Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation 1200 UK France 400 200 0 12 12 Electricity Generation i n selected Countries USA Japan r coal oil UK gas nuclear hydro Germany France Poland India Sweden China Norway other renewables Russia 13 13 Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK 140 Gas Production and Demand in UK 100 80 Import Gap 60 Actual UK production 40 Actual UK demand Projected production Projected demand 20 0 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 12 2018 Prices have become much more volatile since UK is no longer self sufficient in gas. Wholesale Electricity Prices 10 p/kWh Billion cubic metres 120 On 7th/8th December 2010: UK Production was only 39%: 12% from storage and 49% from imports 8 6 4 2 0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 14 Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2001 Electricity Indicies: 2001 = 100 In recent years, electricity retail prices have varied much less than wholesale prices and have also risen less. wholesale retail 2003 2005 2007 2009 In Real Terms, Domestic Electricity Prices have only recently returned to 1981 levels 2011 Real Retail Price Variations in Electricity (1981=100) Matthew and08:42 Ben GMT Farey 6thBrown Feb 2012 Gazprom Expects Gap Between EU Gas (Bloomberg) Requests this week 2012-02-23 06:24:37.12 GMT Anna Shiryaevskaya Traders inBy U.K. natural gas are grappling Russia’s natural-gas export monopoly, with the most changeable prices in more said expects a gap between requests from thanit two years European customersgas andjumped the amount it can U.K. day-ahead to 101.5 supply is pence during a thermthe oncold Feb.snap. 7, fromGazprom 64.5 pence supplying on Feb. 2.at the maximum capacity. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 1981 1991 2001 2011 15 15 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods New Energy Predictions Review 9th May 2020 and capture drivers/barriers/costs Longannet carbon scheme scrapped 2002 2011 (*) Available now (but gas 8.0p 0 - 80% (at present 45is running outPlans – for the UK's first Gas CCGT ~2p + [5 - 11] imported prices carbon much capture 50%) project at higher) the Longannet power 0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherentlystation safe in Fife costing nuclear fission 7.75p (currently 18% and designs - some 2.5 3.5p £1bn have been (long term) [5.5 - 10] falling) development needed scrapped, the energy secretary has confirmed. notisavailable until 2040 at earliest Nuclear New Build assumes one new station completed each year after 2020.not until nuclear fusion unavailable 2050 for significant impact 14000 Installed Capacity (MW) 19 October 2011 Last contribution updated at to 16:35 Potential electricity supply in New Build ? [7.5 - 15]p Available now: Not Coal currently ~40% but viable without Carbon unlikely "Clean10000 Coal" 2.5 3.5p Actual to fall scheduled Capture & before 2025 8000 Sequestration 12000 Projected ? 6000 Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new 4000 transport fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s so cannot help short term. 2000 0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 * Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011 16 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers On Shore Wind ~25% [~15000 x 3 available now for MW turbines] commercial exploitation 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 1.5MW Turbine At peak output provides sufficient electricity for 3000 homes On average has provided electricity for 700 – 850 homes depending on year Future prices from * Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011 Climate Change Committee 17 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers ~25% [~15000 x 3 available now for MW turbines] commercial exploitation some technical Off Shore Wind development needed to 25 - 50% reduce costs. On Shore Wind 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as being very expensive and recommends reducing planned expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for 2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich 18 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers ~25% [~15000 x 3 available now for MW turbines] commercial exploitation some technical Off Shore Wind development needed to 25 - 50% reduce costs. On Shore Wind 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Micro Hydro Scheme operating on Siphon Principle installed at Itteringham Mill, Norfolk. Rated capacity 5.5 kW Hydro (mini micro) 5% technically mature, but limited potential 2.5 - 3p Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 11p for <2MW projects 19 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) ~25% [~15000 x 3 that available now for might be Climate Change Report suggests 1.6 TWh (0.4%) ~ 2+p On Shore Wind MW turbines] commercial exploitation achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW. some technical Off Shore Wind development needed to ~2.5 - 3p 25 - 50% reduce costs. Hydro (mini micro) Photovoltaic 5% technically mature, but limited potential <<5% even available, but much further assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down installation costs significantly Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * ~8.2p +/- 0.8p 12.5p +/- 2.5 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects 15+ p 25p +/-8 Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 20 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and drivers/barriers Transport Fuels: ~25% [~15000 x 3 available now for On Shore•Wind Biodiesel? MW turbines] commercial exploitation some technical • Bioethanol? Off Shore Wind development needed to 25 - 50% • Compressed gas from reduce costs. methane from waste. Hydro (mini technically mature, but 5% micro) limited potential Photovoltaic Sewage, Landfill, Energy Crops/ Biomass/Biogas <<5% even assuming 10 GW of installation ??5% available, but much further research needed to bring down costs significantly available, but research needed in some areas e.g. advanced gasification 2002 (Gas ~ 2p) Predictions May 2011 (Gas ~ 8.0p) * ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW projects 15+ p 25p +/-8 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p depending on technology To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and Suffolk devoted solely to biomass Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 21 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and Predictions 2002 (Gas drivers/barriers May 2011 ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~8.2p +/- 0.8p ~ 2+p Off Shore available but costly 25 - 50% ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Wind 11p for Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p <2MW projects available, but very Photovoltaic <<5% 15+ p 25p +/-8 costly available, but research Biomass ??5% 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p needed currently < 10 technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000 major development not Stream - 2000 MW before 2020 (~0.1%) 4 - 8p Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave 22 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and Predictions 2002 (Gas drivers/barriers May 2011 ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~8.2p +/- 0.8p ~ 2+p Off Shore available but costly 25 - 50% ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Wind 11p for Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p <2MW projects available, but very Photovoltaic <<5% 15+ p 25p +/-8 costly available, but research Biomass ??5% 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p needed currently < 10 techology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000 major development not Stream - 2000 MW before 2020 (~0.1%) 4 - 8p Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 19p +/- 6 Tidal 26.5p +/- 7.5p Wave 23 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and Predictions 2002 (Gas drivers/barriers May 2011 ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% availableSevern now Barrage/ ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Mersey Barrages ~ 2+p Off Shore available buthave costlybeen considered frequently 25 - 50% ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Wind e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009 11p 5-8% for Severn Barrage could provide Small Hydro 5% limited potentialof UK electricity 2.5 - 3p needs <2MW projects In Orkney – Churchill Barriers available, but very Photovoltaic <<5% p per annum 25p +/-8Output ~80 00015+ GWh costly Sufficient for 13500 houses in available, but research Orkney but there in Biomass ??5% 2.5 - are 4p only 4000 7 - 13p needed Orkney. Controversy in bringing currently < 10 technologycables limitedsouth. 19p +/- 6 Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000 major development not 4 - 8p tonnes Tidal 26.5p Would save 40000 of CO 2 Stream - 2000 MW before 2020 +/- 7.5p Wave (~0.1%) technology available but unlikely for 2020. Construction time ~10 years. Tidal Barrages 5 - 15% 26p +/-5 In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 24 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and Predictions 2002 (Gas drivers/barriers May 2011 ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore ~25% available now ~8.2p +/- 0.8p ~ 2+p Wind Off Shore available but costly 25 - 50% ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Wind 11p for Small Hydro 5% limited potential 2.5 - 3p <2MW available, but very Photovoltaic <<5% 15+ p 25p +/-8 costly available, but research Biomass ??5% 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p needed currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal 19p Tidal ??1000 - 2000 MW major development not 4 - 8p Stream 26.5p Wave (~0.1%) before 2020 Tidal Barrages Geothermal In 2010 Government abandoned 26p +/-5 plans for development unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity 5 - 15% Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 25 Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and Predictions 2002 drivers/barriers May 2011 (Gas ~ 2p) (Gas ~ 8.0p) On Shore Wind ~25% available now ~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p Off Shore Wind available but costly 25 - 50% ~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5 Small Hydro Photovoltaic Biomass Wave/Tidal Stream Tidal Barrages Geothermal 5% limited potential available, but very costly available, but research ??5% needed currently < 10 MW technology limited ??1000 - 2000 MW major development not (~0.1%) before 2020 <<5% 5 - 15% 2.5 - 3p 11p for <2MW 15+ p 25p +/-8 2.5 - 4p 7 - 13p 4 - 8p 19p Tidal 26.5p Wave In 2010 Government abandoned plans for development 26p +/-5 unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity Demonstrates importance of on shore wind for next decade or so Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified 26 Our Choices: They are difficult Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and biomass?. Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years. [very expensive or technically immature or both] If our answer is NO Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ? Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks? If our answer is NO Do we want to return to using coal? • then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly • unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years – confirmed by Climate Change Committee [9th May 2011] UNLIKELY If our answer to coal is NO Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>> 27 Our Choices: They are difficult If our answer is YES By 2020 • we will be dependent on GAS for around 70% of our heating and electricity imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>> If not: We need even more substantial cuts in energy use. Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field? Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables? Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route and all the attendant Security issues that raises. We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely be against one technology or another 28 Our 600 500 TWh 400 looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation • 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020. • 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020 • 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020 40% of homes fitted by 2030 • 19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now 300 200 UK Gas Oil Existing Coal Imported Gas Offshore Wind Onshore Wind Other Renewables New Coal 100 Existing Nuclear New Nuclear 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Nuclear new nuclear coal new coal CCS oil Other Renewables onshore wind offshore wind UK gas Imported gas Demand Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for29 significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030. Raising Awareness On average each person in UK causes the emission of 9 tonnes of CO2 each year. How many people know what 9 tonnes of CO2 looks like? 5 hot air balloons per person per year. "Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he thought he could do only a little." Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797) 30 Raising Awareness • A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine. Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2. • 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume of 1 party balloon. • A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year ~ 500 balloons each year. • Standby on electrical appliances up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year) • A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m. • Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres) --------- 90 kg of CO2 (5% of one hot air balloon) At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai 上海徐汇区高第一小学 How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old persons room for 1 hour? School children at the Al Fatah University, 1.6Libya miles Tripoli, 31 The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising Electricity Consumption kWh in period 4000 3000 1 person Social Attitudes towards energy consumption have a profound effect on actual consumption 2 people 2000 3 people 4 people 1000 5 people 0 6 people 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Data collected from 114 houses in Norwich between mid November 2006 and mid March 2007 No of people in household For a given size of household electricity consumption for appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as much as 9 times. When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times 32 32 Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia 45000 Low Energy Lighting Installed Consumption (kWh) 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr 2003 • • • • Jul Oct Jan Apr 2004 Jul Oct 2005 Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005. Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant. Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes. 33 Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk Norwich Ipswich Waveney Broadland Great Yarmouth St Edmundsbury Breckland Forest Heath Babergh South Norfolk Suffolk Coastal North Norfolk Mid Suffolk King's Lynn and West Norfolk kWh 3,535 4,349 4,417 4,618 4,699 4,869 5,028 5,174 5,252 5,347 5,371 5,641 5,723 5,731 % cost 79% 97% 99% 103% 105% 109% 112% 116% 117% 119% 120% 126% 128% 128% Rank 6 159 181 231 252 280 312 336 343 358 360 385 390 393 % Renewables 0.0% 0.0% 1.9% 3.0% 30.0% 1.0% 31.8% 0.0% 0.1% 5.0% 1.0% 1.3% 18.3% 2.5% UK Average 4478 • % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average • Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 from electricity consumption in Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO2 (based on UK emission factors) 34 Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn • Electricity Supply in Norfolk and Suffolk (GWh) Existing Renewables 692 Small Scale 3.8 Great Yarmouth 2100 • Total generation in Norfolk and Suffolk (allowing for losses) ~ 11000 GWh • Total demand in Norfolk and Suffolk = 7803 GWh • Net export to remainder of UK ~ 3200 GWh Sizewell B 8322 2009 Data for Renewables and Sizewell •Other Data based on typical load factors At £12.50 per tonne (EU-ETS price), this represents a benefit of £18 million to rest of UK in carbon saved. 35 Export of Electricity to rest of UK Sustainable Options for the future? Energy Generation • Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses • Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in Norwich – generates 826kWh/year (average over 7 years). • The more hot water you use the more solar heat you get! • Renewable Heat Incentive available from 2012 Overall Solar Energy Gain • • 36 kWh per day • 5.0 2007 2008 Solar PV – providing electricity - suitable for all sizes of installation 4.5 2009 2010 4.0 2011 Area required for 1 kW peak 3.5 varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm 3.0 manufacturer depending on technology and 2.5 2.0 of generation Approximate annual estimate 1.5 1.0 * 0.095 = installed capacity * 8760 0.5 hours in0.0year load/capacity factor of 9.5% Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec How Variable is Wind Energy? Data for Sun/Mon 25/26 Sep 2011 Data from BMREPORTS for 2010 Changes in output over 30 minute period Wind Max: 914 MW Min: – 1051 MW StDev : 37.8 MW Nuclear Max: 1630 MW Min: - 877 MW StDev: 39.9MW 37 How Variable is Wind Energy? 70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations. 3500 Initial 48 hr prediction 3000 Final 24 hr prediction 2500 MW Actual 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Days Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hours Prediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advance Actual Output in last week of January 2012 38 Options available for the Householder Energy Generation • Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines ~ generally poor performance because of turbulence except in a few locations Not generally recommended • Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms Vertical Axis machine – better in turbulence 39 Mast mounted away from buildings - 6kW Potential output 6000 – 10000 kWh depending on location Alternative Strategies for Financing • • • Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor. Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited capital and less concerned with income. Schemes exist for • small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less affected by planning issues • Domestic/community PV up to 50kW Images courtesy of WindCrop Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk 40 Options available for the Householder Energy Generation • 41 Onshore Wind - sensible for community schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy • Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but not, at present, mains gas. • Most convenient if running on pellets • Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to automate Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps Ground Source: Heat Pumps Typically twice floor area of house is required for heat collection. Best performance with under floor heating – i.e difference between heat supply and source temperature is as low as possible Zones of house can be controlled via a manifold 42 Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps Heat pumps run off electricity For a well designed ground source heat pump system: Typically 3.5 – 4.5 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the Coefficient of Performance (COP). If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity. Air source heat pumps require external fan system, and are not as efficient as air temperature is low when most heat is needed. Retro fitting with existing radiators will lead to poor COP, but could be improved by fitting double radiators and/or a buffer tank 43 Options available for the Householder – CHP Replaces normal boiler Provides heat and electricity – would normally run on gas Currently there are incentives under the Feed In Tariff. Micro CHP All microgeneration Installations such as solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP must be MCS Accredited • • 44 To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the installation must be installed by a registered MCS installer. Certificate of installation must be presented at time of registration. Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply • Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh) • ~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved • Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation • ~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved 713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M Total generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh ~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuels Subsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011 • Cavity Insulation • ~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved • There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles • Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms of CO2 saved. • An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both in the short term and long term. 45 Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply • Will require: • Effective Awareness and Energy Management; • Improved Technology to make better use of existing energy; • Low Carbon Energy Supply – including: – Cost effective and technically mature renewables – Nuclear (?) – Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be available until mid 2020s on scale required if then. • Only On Shore Wind (??? Some biomass) will be most cost effective solutions for renewable energy until at least 2020 • Large Scale Wind is often meeting stiff opposition from planning issues – many of which are red-herrings • Innovative solutions for financing 46 Ethical Issues The Unbalanced Triangular Trade 0.94 billion people Raw materials 1.33 billion people Water issues are equally important. Each tonne of steel imported from a developing country consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of 1.03 billion people water Each person in Developed Countries has been responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in goods imported from China in just 3 years 47 Conclusions and Reflections (1) • Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades • Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly in the UK. • Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of traditional fossil fuels • Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future. • Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of renewable energy and small changes in behaviour It is as much about the individual’s response to use of energy as any technical measures the Government may take. • What about our Christian response? • Do we ignore these warnings? Conclusions and Reflections (1) • • Together we can make a difference > a sustainable future for all our children and those overseas • Even we might have to decide whether to drive 1.6 miles or heat our home for one hour. • Remember the story about the camel and the eye of a needle • Matthew: 19:26. “...for God anything is possible” – so let us ask God to show us the way forward FINALLY "If you do not change direction, you may end up where you are heading." (直译):“如果你不改变,你将止步于原地。” Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher This presentation will be available from tomorrow at www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/creduea.htm Act of Commitment • As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in polluting the earth’s soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to change the way we think and live. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. • Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to God’s earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves and to inspire others. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. • Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church communities planning a better way of living in their localities. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. Act of Commitment • Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take what action we can to cherish God’s creation. • Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come. • We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all earth’s Inhabitants, both present and future generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of the whole earth. Amen