Download The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy

Churches Together in Brundall
February 29th 2012
The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy
Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future?
Recipient of James Watt Gold Medal
Keith Tovey (杜伟贤) M.A., PhD, CEng, MICE, CEnv
Reader Emeritus: University of East Anglia
1
The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy
Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future?
Genesis 1:26
“ ......God made man to have dominion of the earth”
Some versions “ ....... God made man ruler over the earth”
? Dominion ? Rule ??
Jesus taught by challenging people to think and ponder
Matthew: 19:21 - the parable of the Rich Man
“.... Go and sell all you have ..........”
“......... It is harder for a rich person to enter the Kingdom of God than
for a camel to go through the eye of a needle”
A good teacher leaves the audience with something to ponder not to tell
his students what they should do.
Mark 12:17. “Render unto Caesar the things that are Caesar’s and to
God the things that are God’s “
- demonstrates joined up thinking prompts us to think of the
consequence of our actions.
- In Bhuddism the Pali Canon urges believers in that faith to think 2
about the consequences of their actions
The Triple Challenges for Christians of Climate Change, Energy
Security and Cost - a Route to a Fair and Sustainable Future
Each person in the UK is continuously using 5kW resulting in the
emission of 9 tonnes per annum.
In America twice as much energy is consumed
Developed Countries constitute just over 10% of World’s Population
>>Consume over 50% of energy and other resources
Is this fair?
20% of population consume < 5% of resources and the majority in this
group do not have access to clean drinking water
Is this fair?
What can we do about it? – it seems like an impossible task
•
•
•
•
•
A Brief Resume of Climate Change and Overview of Energy Demand
Energy Security Issues – particularly for the UK
Reducing Demand through Awareness and good Management
Renewable Energy Options for a Sustainable Future
3
Conclusions and Reflections
Increasing Occurrence of Drought
4
4
Increasing Occurrence of Flood
5
5
Climate Change:
Changes in the Artic 1979 - 2003
‫تغير المناخ‬
‫ اثار على الجليديه القطبيه كاب‬1979 - 2003
• Summer ice coverage of
Arctic Polar Region
• NASA satellite imagery
• ‫الصيف الجليد في القطب‬
‫الشمالي تغطية المنطقة‬
‫القطبيه‬
• ‫ناسا الصور الفضاءيه‬
2003
1979
•20% reduction in 24 years
•20 ٪ ‫ سنوات‬24 ‫تخفيض في‬
Source: Nasa http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2003/1023esuice.html
6
6
Is Global Warming natural
or man-made?
Natural causes
• Earth’s Orbit
• Sunspot Activity
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Etc.
Reasonable agreement up
to ~ 1960
Man-made causes do not
show particularly good
agreement in early part of
period.
BUT including both manmade and natural gives
good agreement
7
Global Surface Temperatures
In 2010 we had one of the warmest ever January – February periods.
Some people say surely it was coldest for 30 years
But why do people not account for the record breaking high
temperatures in the tropics, Australia etc?
5th Warmest for January
8
Temperature variations in East Anglia
Temperature rise in East
Anglia over last 50 years
is unequivocal
16
Mean Temperature (oC)
14
12
10
• Winter: October – March:
• Summer: April to September
• Compared to 1960 – in 2010,
– 13.1% less heating needed
– And 106% more cooling.
8
6
4
2
0
1960
summer
1970
1980
winter
1990
annual
2000
2010
Temperature Deviation deg C
0.60
0.40
0.20
below average
above average
Trend Line
2010 was one a
particularly warm year
despite cold spells in
Europe in January and
December
0.00
-0.20
-0.40
-0.60
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
NASA says it tied as being
warmest
www.nasa.gov/home/hqnews/.../HQ_1
1-014_Warmest_Year.htm
9
What is the magnitude of the CO2 problem?
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Developing
EU
Other OECD
UK
France
Transition
Oil Producing
Pakistan
India
Namibia
Brazil
Turkey
China
Mexico
Lithuania
Sweden
Switzerland
France
Ukraine
South_Africa
Libya
Norway
Italy
Greece
UK
Denmark
Japan
Germany
Russia
Netherlands
US
UAE
Qatar
tonnes/capita
How does UK compare with other countries?
Why do some countries emit more CO2 than others?
Per capita Carbon Emissions
10
10
Impact of Electricity Generation on Carbon Emissions.
•Approximate Carbon Emission factors during electricity generation including
fuel extraction, fabrication and transport.
Fuel
Approximate
Comments
emission factor
per kWh
Coal
Oil
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
~800-900
Depending on grade and
efficiency of power station
Gas (Steam)
~600g
Gas (CCGT)
400 – 430g
Nuclear
Renewables
•
•
~900 – 1000g
5 – 10g
~0
Assuming CCGT – lower value
for Yarmouth
Depending on reactor type
For wind, PV, hydro
Transmission/Distribution losses in UK ~ 8-8.5%
In India ~ 20 – 25%
11
Poland
India
Australia
Libya
China
Italy
800
Czech Republic
Other OECD
USA
Oil Exporting
Denmark
EU
Portugal
1000
Developing
Germany
UK
Netherlands
Japan
Spain
UAE
Qatar
Luxembourg
Belgium
Austria
France
600
Sweden
Switzerland
Norway
gms CO2 / kWH
Carbon Emissions and Electricity
Carbon Emission Factor in Electricity Generation
1200
UK
France
400
200
0
12
12
Electricity Generation i n selected Countries
USA
Japan
r
coal
oil
UK
gas
nuclear
hydro
Germany
France
Poland
India
Sweden
China
Norway
other
renewables
Russia
13
13
Energy Security is a potentially critical issue for the UK
140
Gas Production and Demand in UK
100
80
Import Gap
60
Actual UK production
40
Actual UK demand
Projected production
Projected demand
20
0
1998
2002
2006
2010
2014
12
2018
Prices have become much
more volatile since UK is no
longer self sufficient in gas.
Wholesale Electricity Prices
10
p/kWh
Billion cubic metres
120
On 7th/8th December 2010: UK
Production was only 39%: 12%
from storage and 49% from
imports
8
6
4
2
0
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
14
Variation in Wholesale and Retail Electriity Prices
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
2001
Electricity Indicies: 2001 = 100
In recent years, electricity
retail prices have varied much
less than wholesale prices and
have also risen less.
wholesale
retail
2003
2005
2007
2009
In Real Terms, Domestic
Electricity Prices have only
recently returned to 1981 levels
2011
Real Retail Price Variations in
Electricity (1981=100)
Matthew
and08:42
Ben GMT
Farey
6thBrown
Feb 2012
Gazprom
Expects Gap Between EU Gas
(Bloomberg)
Requests
this week
2012-02-23
06:24:37.12 GMT
Anna
Shiryaevskaya
Traders inBy
U.K.
natural
gas are grappling
Russia’s
natural-gas
export
monopoly,
with
the most
changeable
prices
in more
said
expects
a gap between requests from
thanit two
years
European
customersgas
andjumped
the amount
it can
U.K. day-ahead
to 101.5
supply
is
pence during
a thermthe
oncold
Feb.snap.
7, fromGazprom
64.5 pence
supplying
on Feb. 2.at the maximum capacity.
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
1981
1991
2001
2011
15
15
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Non-Renewable Methods
New
Energy
Predictions
Review
9th May
2020 and capture
drivers/barriers/costs
Longannet carbon
scheme scrapped
2002
2011 (*)
Available now (but gas
8.0p
0 - 80% (at present 45is running outPlans
– for the UK's first
Gas CCGT
~2p +
[5 - 11]
imported prices carbon
much capture
50%)
project
at
higher)
the Longannet power
0 - 15% (France 80%) - new inherentlystation
safe in Fife costing
nuclear fission
7.75p
(currently 18% and
designs - some
2.5
3.5p
£1bn have been
(long term)
[5.5 - 10]
falling)
development needed
scrapped, the energy
secretary
has
confirmed.
notisavailable
until
2040
at
earliest
Nuclear
New
Build
assumes
one
new
station
completed
each
year
after
2020.not until
nuclear fusion
unavailable
2050 for significant impact
14000
Installed Capacity (MW)
19 October 2011
Last contribution
updated at to
16:35
Potential
electricity supply in
New Build ?
[7.5 - 15]p Available now: Not
Coal currently ~40% but viable without Carbon
unlikely
"Clean10000
Coal"
2.5
3.5p
Actual to fall
scheduled
Capture &
before 2025
8000
Sequestration
12000
Projected
?
6000
Carbon sequestration either by burying it or using methanolisation to create a new
4000
transport
fuel will not be available at scale required until mid 2020s so cannot help
short term.
2000
0
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
* Energy Review 2011 – Climate Change Committee May 2011
16
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply
in 2020 and drivers/barriers
On Shore Wind
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
1.5MW Turbine
At peak output provides sufficient electricity for
3000 homes
On average has provided electricity for 700 –
850 homes depending on year
Future prices from
* Renewable Energy Review – 9th May 2011
Climate Change Committee
17
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Climate Change Committee (9th May 2011) see offshore wind as
being very expensive and recommends reducing planned
expansion by 3 GW and increasing onshore wind by same amount
Scroby Sands has a Load factor of 28.8% - 30% but
nevertheless produced sufficient electricity on average for
2/3rds of demand of houses in Norwich. At Peak time
sufficient for all houses in Norwich and Ipswich
18
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
On Shore Wind
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
Micro Hydro Scheme operating
on Siphon Principle installed at
Itteringham Mill, Norfolk.
Rated capacity 5.5 kW
Hydro (mini micro)
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
11p for
<2MW
projects
19
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
~25%
[~15000
x 3 that
available
now
for might be
Climate
Change
Report
suggests
1.6 TWh
(0.4%)
~ 2+p
On Shore
Wind
MW
turbines]
commercial
exploitation
achieved by 2020 which is equivalent to ~ 2.0 GW.
some technical
Off Shore Wind
development needed to ~2.5 - 3p
25 - 50%
reduce costs.
Hydro (mini micro)
Photovoltaic
5%
technically mature, but
limited potential
<<5% even
available, but much further
assuming 10 GW of research needed to bring down
installation
costs significantly
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
20
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in
2020 and drivers/barriers
Transport Fuels:
~25% [~15000 x 3
available now for
On Shore•Wind
Biodiesel?
MW turbines] commercial exploitation
some technical
• Bioethanol?
Off Shore Wind
development needed to
25 - 50%
• Compressed gas from
reduce costs.
methane from waste.
Hydro (mini technically mature, but
5%
micro)
limited potential
Photovoltaic
Sewage, Landfill,
Energy Crops/
Biomass/Biogas
<<5% even assuming
10 GW of installation
??5%
available, but much further
research needed to bring
down costs significantly
available, but research needed
in some areas e.g. advanced
gasification
2002
(Gas ~ 2p)
Predictions
May 2011
(Gas ~ 8.0p) *
~ 2+p
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
~2.5 - 3p
12.5p +/- 2.5
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
projects
15+ p
25p +/-8
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
depending on
technology
To provide 5% of UK electricity needs will require an area the size of Norfolk and
Suffolk devoted solely to biomass
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
21
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
technology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
22
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
projects
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10
techology limited Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development not
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
(~0.1%)
4 - 8p
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
19p +/- 6
Tidal 26.5p
+/- 7.5p Wave
23
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
availableSevern
now Barrage/
~8.2p
+/- 0.8p
Mersey
Barrages
~ 2+p
Off Shore
available buthave
costlybeen considered frequently
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
e.g. pre war – 1970s, 2009
11p 5-8%
for
Severn Barrage could provide
Small Hydro
5%
limited potentialof UK electricity
2.5 - 3p needs
<2MW
projects
In Orkney – Churchill Barriers
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
p per annum
25p +/-8Output ~80 00015+
GWh
costly
Sufficient for 13500 houses in
available, but
research
Orkney
but there
in
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - are
4p only 4000
7 - 13p
needed
Orkney. Controversy in bringing
currently < 10
technologycables
limitedsouth.
19p +/- 6
Wave/Tidal MW may be 1000
major development
not
4 - 8p tonnes
Tidal
26.5p
Would
save 40000
of CO
2
Stream
- 2000 MW
before 2020
+/- 7.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
technology available but unlikely for
2020. Construction time ~10 years.
Tidal Barrages
5 - 15%
26p +/-5
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
24
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002 (Gas
drivers/barriers
May 2011
~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore
~25%
available now
~8.2p +/- 0.8p
~ 2+p
Wind
Off Shore
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Wind
11p for
Small Hydro
5%
limited potential
2.5 - 3p
<2MW
available, but very
Photovoltaic
<<5%
15+ p
25p +/-8
costly
available, but research
Biomass
??5%
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited Wave/Tidal
19p Tidal
??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
4 - 8p
Stream
26.5p Wave
(~0.1%)
before 2020
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
In 2010 Government abandoned
26p +/-5
plans for development
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
5 - 15%
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not
otherwise specified
25
Options for Electricity Generation in 2020 - Renewable
Potential contribution to electricity supply in 2020 and
Predictions
2002
drivers/barriers
May 2011
(Gas ~ 2p)
(Gas ~ 8.0p)
On Shore Wind
~25%
available now
~ 2+p ~8.2p +/- 0.8p
Off Shore Wind
available but costly
25 - 50%
~2.5 - 3p 12.5p +/- 2.5
Small Hydro
Photovoltaic
Biomass
Wave/Tidal
Stream
Tidal Barrages
Geothermal
5%
limited potential
available, but very
costly
available, but research
??5%
needed
currently < 10 MW technology limited ??1000 - 2000 MW major development not
(~0.1%)
before 2020
<<5%
5 - 15%
2.5 - 3p
11p for
<2MW
15+ p
25p +/-8
2.5 - 4p
7 - 13p
4 - 8p
19p Tidal
26.5p Wave
In 2010 Government abandoned
plans for development
26p +/-5
unlikely for electricity generation before 2050 if then -not to be
confused with ground sourced heat pumps which consume electricity
Demonstrates importance of on shore wind for next decade or so
Future prices from Climate Change Report (May 2011) or RO/FITs where not otherwise specified
26
Our Choices: They are difficult
Do we want to exploit available renewables i.e onshore/offshore wind and
biomass?.
Photovoltaics, tidal, wave are not options for next 10 - 20 years.
[very expensive or technically immature or both]
If our answer is NO
Do we want to see a renewal of nuclear power ?
Are we happy with this and the other attendant risks?
If our answer is NO
Do we want to return to using coal?
• then carbon dioxide emissions will rise significantly
• unless we can develop carbon sequestration within 10 years
– confirmed by Climate Change Committee
[9th May 2011]
UNLIKELY
If our answer to coal is NO
Do we want to leave things are they are and see continued exploitation of gas
for both heating and electricity generation? >>>>>>
27
Our Choices: They are difficult
If our answer is YES
By 2020
• we will be dependent on GAS
for around 70% of our heating and electricity
imported from countries like Russia, Iran, Iraq, Libya, Algeria
Are we happy with this prospect? >>>>>>
If not:
We need even more substantial cuts in energy use.
Or are we prepared to sacrifice our future to effects of Global
Warming? - the North Norfolk Coal Field?
Do we wish to reconsider our stance on renewables?
Inaction or delays in decision making will lead us down the GAS option route
and all the attendant Security issues that raises.
We must take a coherent integrated approach in our decision making – not merely
be against one technology or another
28
Our
600
500
TWh
400
looming over-dependence on gas for electricity generation
• 1 new nuclear station completed each year after 2020.
• 1 new coal station fitted with CCS each year after 2020
• 1 million homes fitted with PV each year from 2020
40% of homes fitted by 2030
• 19 GW of onshore wind by 2030 cf 4 GW now
300
200
UK Gas
Oil
Existing Coal
Imported
Gas
Offshore
Wind
Onshore
Wind
Other
Renewables
New Coal
100
Existing Nuclear
New Nuclear
0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Nuclear
new nuclear
coal
new coal CCS
oil
Other Renewables
onshore wind
offshore wind
UK gas
Imported gas
Demand
Data for modelling derived from DECC & Climate Change Committee (2011) - allowing for29
significant deployment of electric vehicles and heat pumps by 2030.
Raising Awareness
On average each person in
UK causes the emission of 9
tonnes of CO2 each year.
How many people know what
9 tonnes of CO2 looks like?
5 hot air balloons per person
per year.
"Nobody made a greater mistake
than he who did nothing because he
thought he could do only a little."
Edmund Burke (1727 – 1797)
30
Raising Awareness
• A tumble dryer uses 4 times as much energy as a washing machine.
Using it 5 times a week will cost ~ £100 a year just for this appliance
alone and emit over half a tonne of CO2.
• 10 gms of carbon dioxide has an equivalent volume
of 1 party balloon.
• A Mobile Phone charger: > 10 kWh per year
~ 500 balloons each year.
• Standby on electrical appliances
up to 20 - 150+ kWh a year - 7500 balloons. (up to £15 a year)
• A Toyota Corolla (1400cc): 1 party balloon every 60m.
•
Filling up with petrol (~£50 for a full tank – 40 litres)
--------- 90 kg of CO2
(5% of one hot air balloon)
At Gao’an No 1 Primary School in Xuhui District, Shanghai
上海徐汇区高第一小学
How far does one have to drive in a small family car (e.g. 1400 cc
Toyota Corolla) to emit as much carbon dioxide as heating an old
persons room for 1 hour?
School children at the Al Fatah University,
1.6Libya
miles
Tripoli,
31
The Behavioural Dimension: Awareness raising
Electricity Consumption
kWh in period
4000
3000
1 person
Social Attitudes towards
energy consumption have a
profound effect on actual
consumption
2 people
2000
3 people
4 people
1000
5 people
0
6 people
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Data collected from 114
houses in Norwich between
mid November 2006 and
mid March 2007
No of people in household
For a given size of household electricity consumption for
appliances [NOT HEATING or HOT WATER] can vary by as
much as 9 times.
When income levels are accounted for, variation is still 6 times
32
32
Electricity Consumption in an Office Building in East Anglia
45000
Low Energy
Lighting Installed
Consumption (kWh)
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
0
Jan Apr
Jul Oct Jan Apr
2003
•
•
•
•
Jul Oct Jan Apr
2004
Jul Oct
2005
Consumption rose to nearly double level of early 2005.
Malfunction of Air-conditioning plant.
Extra fuel cost £12 000 per annum ~£1000 to repair fault
Additional CO2 emitted ~ 100 tonnes.
33
Average Domestic Electricity Consumption in Norfolk and Suffolk
Norwich
Ipswich
Waveney
Broadland
Great Yarmouth
St Edmundsbury
Breckland
Forest Heath
Babergh
South Norfolk
Suffolk Coastal
North Norfolk
Mid Suffolk
King's Lynn and West Norfolk
kWh
3,535
4,349
4,417
4,618
4,699
4,869
5,028
5,174
5,252
5,347
5,371
5,641
5,723
5,731
% cost
79%
97%
99%
103%
105%
109%
112%
116%
117%
119%
120%
126%
128%
128%
Rank
6
159
181
231
252
280
312
336
343
358
360
385
390
393
% Renewables
0.0%
0.0%
1.9%
3.0%
30.0%
1.0%
31.8%
0.0%
0.1%
5.0%
1.0%
1.3%
18.3%
2.5%
UK Average
4478
• % of average cost of electricity bills compared to National Average
• Rank position in UK out of 408 Local Authorities
Average house in Norwich emits 1.87 tonnes of CO2 from electricity consumption
in Kings Lynn 3.04 tonnes of CO2 (based on UK emission
factors)
34
Average household electricity bill in Norwich is 64% that in Kings Lynn
•
Electricity Supply in Norfolk and Suffolk (GWh)
Existing
Renewables
692
Small
Scale
3.8
Great
Yarmouth
2100
•
Total generation in Norfolk and Suffolk
(allowing for losses) ~ 11000 GWh
• Total demand in Norfolk and Suffolk
= 7803 GWh
• Net export to remainder of UK ~ 3200 GWh
Sizewell B
8322
2009 Data for Renewables and Sizewell
•Other Data based on typical load factors
At £12.50 per tonne (EU-ETS price), this
represents a benefit of £18 million to rest
of UK in carbon saved.
35
Export of Electricity to rest of UK
Sustainable Options for the future?
Energy Generation
•
Solar thermal - providing hot water - most suitable for domestic
installations, hotels – generally lees suitable for other businesses
•
Example 2 panel ( 2.6 sqm ) in
Norwich – generates 826kWh/year
(average over 7 years).
•
The more hot water you use the
more solar heat you get!
•
Renewable Heat Incentive available
from 2012
Overall Solar Energy Gain
•
•
36
kWh per day
•
5.0
2007
2008
Solar PV – providing electricity
- suitable for all sizes of installation
4.5
2009
2010
4.0
2011
Area required for 1 kW peak
3.5 varies from ~ 5.5 to 8.5 sqm
3.0 manufacturer
depending on technology and
2.5
2.0 of generation
Approximate annual estimate
1.5
1.0 * 0.095
= installed capacity * 8760
0.5
hours in0.0year
load/capacity factor of 9.5%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
How Variable is Wind Energy?
Data for Sun/Mon 25/26 Sep 2011
Data from
BMREPORTS for 2010
Changes in output over
30 minute period
Wind
Max:
914 MW
Min: – 1051 MW
StDev : 37.8 MW
Nuclear
Max:
1630 MW
Min:
- 877 MW
StDev:
39.9MW
37
How Variable is Wind Energy?
70% of Wind Output is now Visible to National Grid
Predictions are made 2 days and 1 day in advance and demonstrate
a correlation comparable with the prediction of demand variations.
3500
Initial 48 hr prediction
3000
Final 24 hr prediction
2500
MW
Actual
2000
1500
1000
500
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Days
Prediction made mid-afternoon for next 48 hours
Prediction made 1 day later and typically for output 24 hours in advance
Actual Output in last week of January 2012
38
Options available for the Householder
Energy Generation
•
Micro Wind - roof mounted turbines
Building Mounted - ~ 1kW machines
~ generally poor performance
because of turbulence except in a
few locations
Not generally recommended
•
Mini Wind - mast mounted turbines – can be good as long as well
clear of buildings, trees, etc – can be a good option for farms
Vertical Axis
machine – better
in turbulence
39
Mast mounted away from
buildings - 6kW
Potential output 6000 –
10000 kWh depending on
location
Alternative Strategies for Financing
•
•
•
Consumer purchases system and benefits from both reduction in
imported electricity and Feed In Tariff – suitable for both domestic and
commercial properties for those who are capital rich but income poor.
Company pays for and installs system and claims the Feed In Tariff – the
owner of land benefits from reduced energy bills – for those with limited
capital and less concerned with income.
Schemes exist for
• small wind – e.g. Windcrop who offer 5kW turbines which are less
affected by planning issues
• Domestic/community PV up to 50kW
Images courtesy of WindCrop
Honningham Thorpe, Norfolk
40
Options available for the Householder
Energy Generation
•
41
Onshore Wind - sensible for community
schemes – e.g. Orkney, Germany, Denmark
etc – the cheapest form of renewable energy
•
Biomass boilers - can be sensible but need a
reliable fuel supply. In cost terms with the
proposed Renewable Heat Incentive there are
attractions for homes heated by oil or electricity but
not, at present, mains gas.
•
Most convenient if running on pellets
•
Cheaper with wood chip but more difficult to
automate
Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps
Ground Source: Heat Pumps
Typically twice floor area of house is required for heat
collection.
Best performance with under floor heating – i.e difference
between heat supply and source temperature is as low as
possible
Zones of house can be
controlled via a manifold
42
Options available for the Householder – Heat Pumps
Heat pumps run off electricity
For a well designed ground source heat pump system:
Typically 3.5 – 4.5 as much heat is produced as electricity consumed – the
Coefficient of Performance (COP).
If a buffer tank is included in system, then off peak electricity can be
used to heat store overnight – minimising use of full rate electricity.
Air source heat pumps require external fan
system, and are not as efficient as air temperature
is low when most heat is needed.
Retro fitting with existing
radiators will lead to poor COP,
but could be improved by
fitting double radiators and/or
a buffer tank
43
Options available for the Householder – CHP
Replaces normal boiler
Provides heat and electricity –
would normally run on gas
Currently there are incentives
under the Feed In Tariff.
Micro CHP
All microgeneration Installations such as
solar, wind, biomass, heat pumps, CHP must
be MCS Accredited
•
•
44
To be eligible to claim for any Incentive the
installation must be installed by a registered
MCS installer.
Certificate of installation must be presented
at time of registration.
Seeking Effective Low Carbon Solutions for Energy Supply
• Small scale solar PV under the Feed in Tariff (@43.3p/kWh)
•
~ £700+ per tonne CO2 saved
• Large Scale On-shore wind under Renewable obligation
•
~ £90+ per tonne CO2 saved
713 7000 MWh on shore wind generated at an extra cost of £265.4M
Total generated = 361 110 000 MWh: Effective subsidy = 0.07p / kWh
~ 0.6% on domestic bills or ~2% with all renewables considered
Compared to rises of 20%+ mostly from increases in fossil fuels
Subsidy for onshore wind is being cut by 10% in near future
Data from Digest of UK Energy Statistics 2011
• Cavity Insulation
•
~ <<£20 per tonne CO2 saved
• There will be an increased demand for electricity in a future which
promotes conservation of energy! - heat pumps – electric vehicles
• Effective Energy Management can often be cost negative in terms
of CO2 saved.
• An effective strategy will focus on most cost effective solutions both
in the short term and long term.
45
Conclusions: A Strategy for Future Sustainable Energy Supply
• Will require:
• Effective Awareness and Energy Management;
• Improved Technology to make better use of existing energy;
• Low Carbon Energy Supply – including:
– Cost effective and technically mature renewables
– Nuclear (?)
– Carbon Capture and Sequestration – but this will not be
available until mid 2020s on scale required if then.
• Only On Shore Wind (??? Some biomass) will be most cost
effective solutions for renewable energy until at least 2020
• Large Scale Wind is often meeting stiff opposition from
planning issues – many of which are red-herrings
• Innovative solutions for financing
46
Ethical Issues
The Unbalanced Triangular Trade
0.94 billion
people
Raw materials
1.33 billion
people
Water issues are equally
important.
Each tonne of steel imported
from a developing country
consumes ~ 40 - 50 tonnes of
1.03 billion
people water
Each person in Developed Countries has been
responsible for an extra 463 kg of CO2 emissions in
goods imported from China in just 3 years
47
Conclusions and Reflections (1)
• Global Warming will affect us all - in next few decades
• Energy Security will become increasingly important, particularly
in the UK.
• Energy costs are rising mostly from increasing scarcity of
traditional fossil fuels
• Inaction over making difficult decisions now will make Energy
Insecurity and cost increases more likely in future.
• Move towards energy conservation and LOCAL generation of
renewable energy and small changes in behaviour
It is as much about the individual’s response to use of
energy as any technical measures the Government may take.
•
What about our Christian response?
•
Do we ignore these warnings?
Conclusions and Reflections (1)
• • Together we can make a difference
> a sustainable future for all our children and those overseas
• Even we might have to decide whether to drive 1.6 miles or
heat our home for one hour.
• Remember the story about the camel and the eye of a needle
• Matthew: 19:26. “...for God anything is possible” – so let us
ask God to show us the way forward
FINALLY
"If you do not change direction, you may end up
where you are heading."
（直译）：“如果你不改变，你将止步于原地。”
Lao Tzu (604-531 BC) Chinese Artist and Taoist philosopher
This presentation will be available from tomorrow
at
www.uea.ac.uk/~e680/cred/creduea.htm
Act of Commitment
• As we celebrate the goodness, diversity and wonder of God’s
creation, we admit our collective guilt in allowing species to become
so swiftly extinct, in depleting finite energy and raw materials, and in
polluting the earth’s soil, water and atmosphere. Let us be ready to
change the way we think and live.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• Let us commit ourselves, as individuals and within our churches, to
do all we can to heal and restore the damage people have caused to
God’s earth, and to develop sustainable lifestyles, both for ourselves
and to inspire others.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
• Let us commit ourselves to do all in our power to support church
communities planning a better way of living in their localities.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom come.
Act of Commitment
• Let each of us commit ourselves to play our part and take
what action we can to cherish God’s creation.
• Through our lives and by our prayers Your kingdom
come.
•
We pledge to pray and work for an environmentally
sustainable and socially just world, in the interest of all
earth’s Inhabitants, both present and future
generations, and for the well-being and flourishing of
the whole earth.
Amen