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Transcript
Climate Change
Water stress, floods, ...
Walter Mendoza
mumbai
xavier’s
july 02, 2011
Key issues
350 ppm
2°C
Disaster? Or
Catastrophe?
Tipping elements
Processes, particularly sensitive to climate change
Greenland
ice sheet
Deep water
formation
Arctic sea ice melting
Arctic ozone
depletion
Himalaya
snow cover
Sahara
Marine
carbon cycle
Amazon
vegetation
West Antarctic
ice sheet
Methane
outgasing
Antarctic ozone hole
Indian
monsoon
El Niño
Southern Oscillation
Climate change and water
• Superimposed on the existing crisis
• Surface air temperature in India is
going up at the rate of 0.4 degrees
Centigrade
• Rainfall patterns changing: more
extreme rainy days; less number of
rainy days; decline in summer rainfall
• Total runoff in most rivers will increase,
cause more flooding; runoff will be less
in lean season
Climate change and water
• Glaciers melting at an accelerated
rate, may cause increased flooding
in Himalayan rivers and subsequent
• Increase in flash floods
• Glacier-fed rivers may eventually run
dry
Climate change and water
• Rising sea levels and coastal
erosion will gobble up land
• Coastal freshwater aquifers turning
saline
• Large scale displacement
• Increased extreme disasters
(drought, floods, cyclones, etc)
Health impact
• As temperatures soar, humidity
increases, as water becomes
scarce, disasters such as floods
increase,
so will
• Diarrhoea, cholera, malaria and
other vector borne disease
• Increased drought, leading to
Poor water quality, dehydration,
chronic low water consumption, poor
sanitation and hygiene
Social impact
• Poor impacted the most, sustained
poverty
• Increased inequity
• Affect on livelihood
• Social unrest, increased conflicts
Over the last 25 years, Gangotri glacier
has retreated more than 850 meters
Agriculture
•Decrease in yield of crops as temperature increases in
different parts of India - For example a a 2°C increase in
mean air temperature, rice yields could decrease by about
0.75 ton/hectare in the high yield areas and by about 0.06
ton/hectare in the low yield coastal regions.
•Major impacts of climate change will be on rain fed crops
(other than rice and wheat), which account for nearly 60%
of cropland area. In India poorest farmers practice rain fed
agriculture.
•The loss in farm-level net revenue will range between 9
and 25% for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.
Coastal Zones
•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of
tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly
intense events are projected during the post-monsoon
period
•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in
coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal
areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and
salinization.
7500 km coast line
Vulnerable areas along the Indian
Coast due to SLR
Coastal Zones
•Simulation models show an increase in frequencies of
tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal particularly
intense events are projected during the post-monsoon
period
•Sea level rise is projected to displace populations in
coastal zones, increase flooding in low-lying coastal
areas, loss of crop yields from inundation and
salinization.
7500 km coast line
Vulnerable areas along the Indian
Coast due to SLR
Key Vulnerable River Basins
Acute physical water scarce
conditions
Constant water scarcities and
shortage
Seasonal / regular water
stressed conditions
Rare water shortages
Health
Malaria is likely to persist in many states and new regions at
hogher latitudes may become malaria-prone
The duration of the malaria transmission windows is likely to
widen in northern and western states and shorten in
southern states.
Endemic
regions of
malaria
Regions likely to
be affected by
malaria in 2050s
Responses
• NAPCC – National Action Plan on
Climate Change - Water Mission
• State Action Plans
National Water Mission
• Studies on Management of Water Resources
• Management & regulation of Groundwater resources
– Mandating water-harvesting and artificial recharge
– Enhancing recharge of deep zones of aquifers
– Mandatory water assessments and audits for industrial
waste disposal
– Regulation of power tariffs for irrigation
Responses
• NAPCC – National Action Plan on
Climate Change - Water Mission
• State Action Plans
Responses
• NAPCC – National Action Plan on
Climate Change - Water Mission
• State Action Plans
National Water Mission (contd.)
• Upgradation of storage systems for
freshwater & drainage systems for
wastewater
–
–
–
–
Prioritizing vulnerable watersheds
Rejuvenation of old water tanks
Models for urban storm water flows
Strengthen links with afforestation & wetland
conservation
– Enhance storage capacities in hydro projects
• Conservation of wetlands
• Development of Desalination techniques
Responses
Responses
Responses
mumbai
mumbai
Mithi river