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Transcript
Local Strategies
for Adapting to a
Lower Energy
Future
Richard Heinberg
Post Carbon Institute
www.postcarbon.org
www.postcarbon.org
Scenario Planning
• Bryn Davidson, Dynamic Cities Project,
Vancouver BC
2
www.postcarbon.org
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
4 Energy
Scenarios
3
1
Rapid
Depletion
Slow
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
and/or later
peaking
4
2
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
3
www.postcarbon.org
Proactive Response
4 Energy
Scenarios
Government, Society,
Technology & Markets
“Lean Economy” *
aka “Powerdown”
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Rapid
Depletion
Slow
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
and/or later
peaking
“Collapse”
“Burnout”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Markets, Technology,
Society & Government
* per David Fleming
4
www.postcarbon.org
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Markets & Technology
Example Scenario:
Conventional oil peaks before 2010
but the depletion rate is buffered by
non-conventional sources and rising
prices.
Governments reform tax laws around
energy and the environment.
Carbon sequestration allows for the
clean use of fossil fuels.
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
Slow
Depletion
and/or later
peaking
The 'Green' sector shows tremendous
growth, while older industries decay.
Developing third-world economies
'leap-frog' to sustainable economies.
5
www.postcarbon.org
“Techno-Markets”
aka “Sustainable Development”
6
www.postcarbon.org
Example Scenario:
Non-conventional fossil fuels offset
depletion masking any overall 'peak'.
The price of oil hovers above $70/bbl
for several decades and drives a
transition to coal, nuclear, and
unsustainably sourced biomass.
CO2 emissions skyrocket, while
habitats , farmland, and forests are
decimated in a rush for wood and
biomass.
Super storms, rising sea levels, and
desertification cause massive refugee
and health crises.
Slow
Depletion
“Burnout”
and/or later
peaking
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
Reactive Response
Technology, Markets,
Government & Society
7
www.postcarbon.org
“Burnout”
aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
8
www.postcarbon.org
Proactive Response
Government, Society,
Markets & Technology
Example Scenario:
“Lean Economy” *
aka “Powerdown”
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
Conventional oil/gas peaks around 2010
and depletes surprisingly fast.
Governments enact their rapidconservation plans drafted in ‘06.
Political and religious groups come
together to support international
cooperation and help to avert armed
conflict and the widespread use of dirty
fuels.
The global economy transitions (with the
help of a few price and supply shocks)
from a global-centric to a regional and
local-centric model.
* per David Fleming
9
www.postcarbon.org
“Lean Economy”
aka “Powerdown”
10
www.postcarbon.org
Example Scenario:
Conventional oil peaks before 2010 and depletes rapidly; faster than substitutes and new
sources from tar sands, coal and oil shale can be scaled up. Declining global fuel supplies
lead to negative growth. Investors lose faith in stock markets and currencies collapse.
High prices and shortages cause 'demand destruction' but the base level of demand is too
inelastic to contract voluntarily at the rate of depletion. Natural gas peaks and declines
rapidly in many regions (including North America) as LNG growth fails to offset depletion.
Rapid
Depletion
and/or early
peaking
“Collapse”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
Reactive Response
Technology, Markets,
Government & Society
Nations battle for resources
abroad and fight unrest at
home. Unemployment soars,
global travel and the globalized
economy collapse. Health and
food crises are rampant.
Populations contract from lower
birth rates and lower life
expectancies.
Governments revert to citystates while the former suburbs
become lawless salvage yards.
11
www.postcarbon.org
“Collapse”
aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”
aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
12
www.postcarbon.org
Take-away message:
• We cannot control the speed of the energy
decline, nor can we predict it accurately at
this point
• However, we can choose how quickly and
effectively to prepare and respond
13
www.postcarbon.org
Two directions…
• Work with municipal governments
• Work with the general public and nongovernmental organizations
• These are not mutually exclusive!
14
www.postcarbon.org
Economic Relocalization
• Why it will be necessary
• Why it will have benefits
• Resources
15
www.postcarbon.org
Benefits
• Enlargement of scope of trade yields
diminishing returns in terms of human
community, happiness, culture
• Local self-reliance makes for
redundancy—less efficient from a purely
economic perspective, but more resilient in
case of disruptions
• More opportunity for personal involvement
in decision-making (real democracy)
16
www.postcarbon.org
Resources: Books
• Going Local, by Michael Shuman
• Localisation: A Global Manifesto, by Colin
Hines
17
www.postcarbon.org
• Ancient Futures, by Helena Norberg
Hodge
18
www.postcarbon.org
For interviews about relocalization
www.globalpublicmedia.com
Relocalize Now! Preparing for
Climate Change & the End of
Cheap Oil
by Julian Darley, Celine Rich, David Room &
Richard Heinberg
Forthcoming 2006 from New Society Publishers
19
www.postcarbon.org
Resources: Organizations
• Post Carbon Institute www.postcarbon.org
• Community Solution
www.communitysolution.org
• Business Alliance for Living Local
Economies (BALLE)
http://livingeconomies.org/
20
www.postcarbon.org
Municipal Action Survey:
What Others are Doing
• How are other cities responding to the
challenges and opportunities of energy
vulnerability?
21
www.postcarbon.org
Climate Change Efforts
• Dovetail with energy vulnerability efforts
• Climate change becoming accepted as defining
issue
– Time magazine
– Sonoma County Climate Protection Campaign
• Some solutions are similar:
– Less fossil fuels used, less GHG emissions
– But some new dimensions
• If Kyoto targets not met it doesn’t usually directly affect
officials – can’t see direct connections – space-time
disjunction
• But if persistent or highly volatile energy prices occur and
even shortages, then that will have a direct effect
22
www.postcarbon.org
US Mayors for Climate Protection
• Text of the agreement:
http://www.seattle.gov/mayor/climate/PDF/
Resolution_FinalLanguage_06-13-05.pdf
• List of mayors:
http://www.ci.seattle.wa.us/mayor/climate/
quotes.htm#mayors
23
www.postcarbon.org
Energy Vulnerability
• Post Carbon Institute conducting ongoing
survey of governmental strategies,
solutions and responses being pursued at
local, regional, and international levels
24
www.postcarbon.org
Kinsale, Ireland
• Feb 2005: Kinsale Mayor and students formed town
meeting on energy descent
• Findings were incorporated into
report titled “Kinsale 2021:
An Energy Descent Action Plan”
• Dec 2005: Town Council voted unanimously to adopt
plan, designate Kinsale as Ireland’s first “Transition Town”
http://transitionculture.org/wpcontent/uploads/KinsaleEnergyDescentActionPlan.pdf
25
www.postcarbon.org
Denver, Colorado
• Mayor Hickenlooper implementing programs to
minimize impact of energy scarcity
• Nov 2005: Denver World Oil Conference
– To discuss challenges of and intelligent responses to
global oil peak
– Co-hosted with Association for the Study of Peak Oil
(ASPO-USA)
• Interview with Mayor Hickenlooper
on GlobalPublicMedia.com
26
www.postcarbon.org
Hervey Bay, Queensland,
Australia
• MP Andrew McNamara discusses Peak
Oil in Parliament
• Established Queensland Oil Vulnerability
Task Force
– Interest in contributing has grown throughout
government, but this is delaying report.
• Interviews with Andrew McNamara, as well as his
speeches to Parliament, on GlobalPublicMedia.com
27
www.postcarbon.org
Tompkins County NY
• http://www.ibiblio.org/tcrp/doc/project.htm
28
www.postcarbon.org
Franklin, New York
• Peak Oil Resolution proposed to appoint a
Citizen’s Commission
– “…creation of a Citizens' Commission to
examine the issues raised by declining energy
supplies and rising energy costs, to explore
the needs and resources of the Town of
Franklin affected by energy costs and
supplies…”
• Dec 2005: Approved by Town Board
29
www.postcarbon.org
Sebastopol, California
• Sept 2005: Mayor Robinson’s Town Hall
meeting: “Peak Oil – Adapting to an increasingly
scarce energy supply”
• Sebastopol Community Advisory Group On
Energy Vulnerability
– came from the City Council January 2006
• Solar Sebastopol Program
– City, private PV vendors, the energy tech program at
Sonoma State University, and individual citizens
– Goal: 1/3 of city electricity by next year
• Interview with Mayor Robinson on GlobalPublicMedia.com
30
www.postcarbon.org
Willits Economic Localization
(WELL)
• 2005: City of Willits signed statement
calling for local and sustainable economy
– A call for self-sufficiency in Willits
• Food, energy, goods, etc.
– Signed by Mayor Jorgensen and many local
public figures
– WELL now undertaking assessments of
resource use and transition strategies
– http://www.willitseconomiclocalization.org/
31
www.postcarbon.org
Hamilton, Ontario
• 2005: Growth Related
Integrated Development
Strategy (GRIDS) identified
a community planned
around an airport as #1
priority for Hamilton
development
(“Aerotropolis”)
• In light of fossil fuel
depletion, now reexamining its development
strategy
32
www.postcarbon.org
Hamilton, Ontario
• Dr. Richard Gilbert commissioned to report
on impacts to Hamilton and Aerotropolis
– Strategies include: reducing per-capita energy
use by 2/3; creating all electricity within
Hamilton; replace “Aerotropolis” with energy
cluster as the first priority
• April 2006, City Council voted to proceed
in direction of Dr. Gilbert’s proposals
33
www.postcarbon.org
Hamilton, Ontario
• Vision 2020: Hamilton’s Commitment to a
Sustainable Community
• Adopted by Regional Council - 1992
• Vision 2020 goals include
– “In the year 2020,Hamilton-Wentworth supports a
population consistent with the carrying capacity of the
region”
– Development of local culture
– Ensuring adequate local agriculture for the community
– Development of sustainable transportation system (for
people, goods and services)
– etc.
34
www.postcarbon.org
Burnaby, British Columbia
• June 2005: Transportation Committee requested
staff to report on Peak Oil and implications for
City of Burnaby
• Jan 2006: Report to Transportation Committee
– “There is much that municipalities can and should be
doing in advance of peak in global oil production”
– Unanimous vote to receive and distribute report to
UBCM and member municipalities
• But not explicitly part of new economic
development plan
– (March 2006 draft version of Burnaby Economic
Development Strategy)
http://www.crudeawakening.net/Burnaby%202
006-01-04%20Peak%20Oil%20Overview.pdf
35
www.postcarbon.org
Bloomington IN
• Peak Oil resolution passed in early 2006
• City Councilman Dave Rollo instrumental
in process
• Having one member of a city council
enthusiastically on board makes passage
of Peak Oil resolutions much easier
36
www.postcarbon.org
May 19, 2006 Energy Vulnerability
Summit
• Electeds from 5-county region of northern
California
• Report:
http://elizabethlogan.blogspot.com/2006/0
5/report-on-energy-vulnerabilitysummit.html
37
www.postcarbon.org
San Francisco, California
• San Francisco Oil Awareness Group lobbied
San Francisco Board of Supervisors to pass
Peak Oil Resolution (2005)
• Resolution passed unanimously April 11, 2006
• First U.S. city to pass peak oil resolution
• Interviews with Oil Awareness Group
on GlobalPublicMedia.com
38
www.postcarbon.org
San Francisco Peak Oil Resolution
1. “…acknowledges the unprecedented
challenges of Peak Oil”
2. Supports adoption of global Oil Depletion
Protocol
•
“…to provide a framework of predictability”
3. Undertaking a city-wide assessment
•
Inventory of city activities and associated resource
requirements, in regards to decreased energy
availability and increased prices
4. “…urges the Mayor to provide funding and
direction…for development of a response
plan.” http://energybulletin.net/15086.html
39
www.postcarbon.org
Oakland, California
• Oil Independent Oakland task force
• Empaneled by Mayor and City Council
March, 2007
• Report due in 6 months
40
www.postcarbon.org
Portland, Oregon
• 2006: Portland Peak Oil committee lobbied City
Council to pass resolution to
form a Task Force on
implications of Peak Oil.
• Resolution passed unanimously
May 10, 2006
– Recommendations will be incorporated in global
warming local action plan, city’s comprehensive
plan, etc.
• Text of resolution at www.portlandpeakoil.org
41
www.postcarbon.org
Portlandonline.com
42
www.postcarbon.org
43
www.postcarbon.org
44
www.postcarbon.org
45
www.postcarbon.org
46
www.postcarbon.org
Resources…
• Powerdown Project Municipal Template
powerdownproject.org
• Daniel Lerch, Post Carbon Cities Project
postcarboncities.net
• Rob Hopkins, Transition Towns
transitiontowns.org, transitionculture.org
47
www.postcarbon.org
48
www.postcarbon.org
49
www.postcarbon.org
50
www.postcarbon.org
51
www.postcarbon.org
Leadership
• Still in early stages of addressing issue
• Climate Change and Energy Vulnerability
defining issues of our time
• Elected officials are on the front lines
• Public needs further education
– More than just ‘pain at the pump’
52
www.postcarbon.org
Leadership
• Given no blueprint available, we need to
develop own templates & demonstrations –
and share them
• Every community has different needs,
resources & constraints
– In the long term, responses and solutions will
be based on our locales
53
www.postcarbon.org
Questions
• Can local public policy support a
competitive and sustainable economy in
the face of rising energy costs?
• How can you do what you need to do (in
your jurisdiction) with less energy?
• How can you leverage your leadership
position to begin to address these issues?
54
www.postcarbon.org