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Sources of Climate Information and the WB Climate Data Portal Michael I. Westphal CC Team ENV SDN Week 26/2/08 Oft-heard Questions What’s out there? What data are easily accessible? What data are useful and important in the development context? - timeframe, variables, spatial scale (Are GCMs too coarse?) Is it all too uncertain? (Or the Paralysis of Uncertainty) Sources of Climate Information I.) Documents/ Reports IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (www.ipcc.ch) Limitations: - Informational only, no data - Generated by and for (?) climate scientists - Qualitative, difficult to bore down to regions - Most projections end of 21st Century II) Data Sites IPCC Data Portal (WCRP CMIP3 multimodel database) (https://esg.llnl.gov:8443/) - abstruse (netCDF) format, unusable to development professionals II) Data Sites Various CRU historical datasets Tyndall: http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~timm/data/indextable.html CGIAR: http://cru.csi.cgiar.org/CRU_data_structure.asp University of East Anglia http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru/data/ -requires programming/GIS sophistication II) Data Sites WorldClim (www.worldclim.org) - Historical bioclim variables ands downscaling from 3 GCMs (IPCC 3AR) -no measures of extreme precipitation; rainfall variability -requires programming/GIS sophistication III) Visualisation Sites Hadley Centre -One model, one point in time, limited variables (http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/hadleycentre/ models/modeldata.html) National Center for Atmospheric Research - More variables, more interactive but still one point in time - can download data - one model - missing variables to development? (rainfall variability, variability, variability) (www.gisclimatechange.org) III) Visualisation Sites – Current/historical climate International Research Institute for Climate and Society – climatologies, drought, anomalies, etc. (http://portal.iri.columbia.edu/portal/server.pt) NOAA Africa Desk - climatologies, drought, anomalies, station data, etc. (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/african_des k/) IV) What about “desktop” models? MAGICC (http://www.cru.uea.ac.uk/~mikeh/software/magicc. htm) -More for exploring emissions; only basic temp and SLR PRECIS (Hadley Centre) - (http://precis.metoffice.com) - More for Met Bureaus -A typical experiment (100 x100 grid) run on a 2.8GHz machine: 4.5 months to complete a 30-year simulation! … hence the need for a Climate Data Portal Niche of our Climate Data Portal ‘Light’ and quick, ease-of-use Visualization, querying, data summarization Pixel-level and country aggregation More consonant with development timeframe and variables (extreme precipitation/ temperature) http://essdcharts.worldbank.org Niche of our Climate Data Portal Historical and Projected GCMs and downscaling Multimodel, model concordance/discordance (uncertainty) Not just 1 Climate Data - Climate-related (natural disaster, crop yield projections) - Non-climate (socioeconomic) Some Global Datasets Type Variables Institute Resolution Climate Change Temp, Precip, Projections extreme rainfall (High resolution metrics GCM) Meteorological Research Institute, Japan 20 km. Climate Change Projections (IPCC GCMs) Temp, Precip, extreme rainfall/temp metrics Various Climate Change Projections Runoff USGS (Milly et al. 2008) 2° Climate Change Projections Crop yield changes/ suitability (14 crops) IIASA, Austria 5’ 1- 4° Some Global Datasets Type Variables Institute Resolution Natural Disaster Hotspots Floods, droughts, landslides (economic loss, economic loss: GDP, mortality) WB/ Columbia University 2.5’ Historical Climate (CRU Dataset) Monthly Temp, Precip University of East Anglia/ CGIAR 0.5° Planned Functionality • Linkages with other tools, wiki • Interfacing with Bank databases • Spatially-referenced Knowledgebase Acknowledgements • Data suppliers: • - IPCC Data Portal (LLL) - MRI, Japan SDN IT Group - Reza Firuzabadi - Arvind Gowda, Dany Jones, Michael Kane, Ritesh Sanan, Varuna Somaweera Climate Needs for Bank? • • • • • • Variables Spatial Scale Time Frame Display of uncertainties Format Will this portal be useful? When? Modifications, extensions?