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Präsentation des „Stern Report“ der UK-Regierung am 30.10.2006 in HM Treasury:
Quelle: „Stern Report“, UK-Government, neue Adresse (2007.11 AD):
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk./independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm
UrQuelle der Original-Vortragsfolien + SpeakingNotes:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/99D/3D/sternreview_speakingnotes.pdf
Lokal: SternReview_on-theEconomics-ofClimateChange-CC_2006ppt.pdf
SternReview_on-theEconomics-ofClimateChange-CC_2006_ppt_SpeakingNotes.pdf
Quelle: „Stern Report“Folie 2, UK-Government: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Folie3: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
Bemerkungen:
1. Red lines show ranges to studies IPCC(2001) and Hadley (2004)
Grey bars give the range of existing studies.
2. Recognise the lags in these processes.
We are currently adding around 2.5 ppm/a CO2_equ of GHGs
and the current stock of all GHGs is 430 ppm CO2_equ
And these stocks affect temperatures with a lag:
already committed to at least ½ºC more in the next few decades
from emissions we have already made.
The slide shows eventual temperature increases corresponding to
different levels of stabilised stocks.
3. At the upper end of the ranges, the climate is entering
very dangerous territory.
Thus the risk analysis must include the possibility of very powerful effects.
5. Zielvorgabe:
between
somewhere
450 and 550 ppm CO2_equ
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Speaking Notes zu Folie 3 der Präsentation
Schlussfolgerung:
Given where we are (stock 430ppm and adding 2.5ppm/a);
given the obvious dangers of going over 550ppm,
this strongly suggests that we should aim somewhere
between 450
and 550 ppm CO2_equ.
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Speaking Notes zu Folie 3 der Präsentation
Falling -1 bis -3%/a
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Folie 4: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
costs
Costs of reducing emissions to stabilize
between 450 and 550 ppm CO2equiv
• Costs of doing nothing (BAU):
Stern calculates, damages from BAU would be equivalent
to at least 5 and up to 20% of consumption a year,
depending on the types of risks and effects included.
• Costs
and benefits of taking action:
around 1%
The costs of getting to 550 or below, are
of GDP per year.
It is like a one-off increase by 1% in the price level. That is manageable;
We can grow and be green.
• New
Opportunities, new Markets:
There will be new markets worth 100‘s of G$/a .
Economically speaking:
Mitigation is a very good deal.
BAU, on the other hand, will eventually derail growth.
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Speaking Notes zu Folie 4 der Präsentaioon
Action is necessary across all sectors, if
the required reductions are to be achieved.
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Folie5: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
Different policies, but there are
Some clear and broad Principles
1. Establish a carbon price
via tax, trade and regulation.
2. Promote Technology:
through research and development.
Private sector investors need confidence
that there will be markets for their products
3. Deal with Market Failure , e.g.:
* problems in property and capital markets inhibit investments for energyefficiency.
* sticks and carrots of incentives need to be supported by information.
* understanding of the issues can itself change the behaviour of individuals and firms.
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Speaking Notes zu Folie 5 der Präsentation
1. Carbon Preis:
Subtile Flexibilität im Detail
2 Beispiele
• Narrow Corridor for emission paths but flexibility in approach
(a)The economics of risk says the dangers of over-shooting imply the need for
a clear long-term quantitative goal,
which drives the emissions path into a fairly narrow corridor.
(b)The economics of cost requires flexibility as to how, where and when
we reduce emissions whilst staying in that corridor.
• Trading
means there is a difference between
what emissions reduction you fund and what you do yourself.
Buying abroad may get you more mitigation for your money and
the process can provide financial flows into developing countries.
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Speaking Notes zu Folie 5 der Präsentation
Carbon Preis:
Unterliegt gegenwärtig
dem EU Emissionshandel
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Folie 6: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
Marktpotential für CO2 Emissionshandel
Ausweitung des ETS
Nach dem EU –Emissionshandel System (ETS) werden gegenwärtig die
CO2 - Emissionen aus dem Kraftwerks- und Industriebereich gehandelt.
Nach 2012 , in der 3. Phase, könnte man das System
auf andere Regionen ausweiten.
Eine Ausweitung auf die Top 20 Global Emitters
ergäbe eine Verfünffachung des Handelsvolumens.
With international trade and common prices
we can get more reduction for a given cost.
2. Technology:
Technology:
1. Research and development in the energy sector has
halved since the early 1980s.
That trend must be reversed, and ideas must be shared.
2. We need larger cross-border markets for low carbon technologies
to drive
deployment and bring down costs.
ADAPTATION
• Much climate change is already on the way. All countries have to adapt.
• Much of adaptation is the building of resilience and flexibility, in other words
sustainable development itself is the best adaptation for poor countries.
• Better information and crops
, that withstand
heat, drought and floods can be developed internationally.
• Adaptation will cost poor countries
10‘s of G$ /a more
for the necessary infrastructure alone.
• We must do all in our power, difficult though that is, to ensure delivery
on the ODA* commitments ( for the EU: 0.7% of GDP by 2015)
of Monterrey 2002 and EU and the Gleneagles summit of the G8 last year.
* ODA = Overseas Development Aid=Entwicklungshilfe
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Speaking Notes vor Folie 7 der Präsentation
The trend of ODA is upwards.
Meeting the commitment (0,7%) could
support requirements for
adaptation.a
ODA=Overseas Development Aid; GNI = gross National Income =Brutto Inlansprodukt (BIP)?
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Folie 7: http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
Quelle: „Stern Report“, UK-Government, neue Adresse (2007.11 AD):
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk./independent_reviews/stern_review_economics_climate_change/stern_review_report.cfm
UrQuelle der Original-Vortragsfolien + SpeakingNotes:
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/987/6B/Slides_for_Launch.pdf
http://www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/media/99D/3D/sternreview_speakingnotes.pdf
Quelle: „Stern Report“, Folie 8: