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Welcome New Nuclear Power and Climate Change: Issues and Opportunities Upcoming EBC Meetings Nov 6 - Env. Industry Forecast w/ Paul Zofnass Nov 8 - Ira Leighton USEPA Update in RI Nov 14 - EPA VOC Control/Stack Testing Workshop at EPA Lab in Chelmsford Nov 15 - Tour of PSNH Wood Burner Nov 28 - Risk Assessment/Risk Mgmt Program Nov 30 - An Evening with CT DEP Commissioner Gina McCarthy Dec 6 – Winter Garden Party in Boston EBC Mission Statement The mission of the Environmental Business Council of New England, Inc. is to advance and promote the environmental and energy services and technology businesses in New England. • • • • • • Provides programs on current legislative, regulatory, and technology developments that shape the future of the environmental/energy industry Provides direct access to regulators and industry leaders to discuss developing issues Offers networking and business development opportunities for its members Supports and promotes sustainable environmental policies and practices for business and government Fosters the development of future generations of the industry through academic partnerships and mentoring and training opportunities Provides access to market research Scale of The Challenge • For 1 GtC reduction in 2050 – – – – 1000 MW electrics with CO2 capture (800) 1000 MW nuclear stations (700) 1 MW wind turbines (1 million) Double fuel economy of cars (2 billion) . . . None economic & accepted today . . . • To achieve any target now discussed – Price (& regulatory) penalty on CO2 emissions – Technology advance to lower the cost of low-CO2 energy supply and use of energy services . . . Only policy involving BOTH will work . . . New Nuclear Power and Climate Change: Issues and Opportunities Kenneth Hughey New Nuclear Power and Climate Change: Issues and Opportunities Jay Scheffer, Conference Chair New Nuclear Power and Climate Change: Issues and Opportunities Keynote Presentation David Ropeik Nuclear Power Public Fears – Perception and Reality Bounded Rationality When we don’t have all the time, all the information, or all the “smarts” we need to make a completely fact-based analytical decision. RISK PERCEPTION FACTORS Psychological factors by which we gauge what to be afraid of and how afraid to be. The characteristics of a risk, apart from the facts. 1. TRUST (More Afraid) • Anything connected with industry • Communications from politicians • A decision making process that’s closed (Less Afraid) • Anything connected with consumer groups • Communications from neutral experts (doctors, academics) • A decision making process that’s open 1. TRUST • In the communicator • In the organization that’s supposed to protect you • In the organization creating the risk • In the process 2. HARM V. BENEFIT • Vaccinations, medical X rays, prescription drugs • Lawn chemicals • Using a mobile phone while you drive 3. CONTROL (ability to influence events as they occur) (More Afraid) • Riding as a passenger in the front seat of a motor vehicle • A process in which you can NOT participate (Less Afraid) • Driving a motor vehicle • A process in which you CAN participate 4. CHOICE (is the risk voluntary or imposed) (More Afraid) • Food with a potentially harmful ingredient NOT listed on the label • The government chooses your town for a nuclear waste repository (Less Afraid) • Food with a harmful ingredient that IS listed on the label • INVITING the government to locate the nuclear waste repository in your town 5. NATURAL V. HUMAN-MADE (More Afraid) • Industrial chemicals (drugs, pesticides) • Technologies (GM food, nuclear power) • Terrorism (Less Afraid) • Organic foods and pesticides • Herbal remedies • Severe weather 6. DREAD (More Afraid) • Anything associated with radiation (cancer) • Pesticides (cancer) • Plane Crash (Less Afraid) • Heart disease (leading cause of death in the U.S.) • Flu • Food poisoning 7. CATASTROPHIC or CHRONIC (More Afraid) • Terrorism • Plane crashes • Nuclear “disaster” (Less Afraid) • Heart disease • Motor vehicle crashes • Air pollution from fossil fuels 8. UNCERTAINTY (When we don’t have all the answers, or we have them but don’t understand them.) (More Afraid) • New technologies • Terrorism • Complex technologies/ (nuclear power, chemicals, GM foods) • Conflicting scientific studies (hormone repl. therapy) (Less Afraid) • Artificial sweeteners, microwave ovens, electrical & magnetic fields, fossil fuels. 9. ME OR THEM • Terrorism to Americans in “The HoMEland” after September 11, 2001 • Radiation from power lines when such a line is installed near your home • HIV/AIDS to those in high risk groups. 10. FAMILIAR V. NEW (More Afraid) • West Nile Virus in year one • Terrorist attacks in America • Avian influenza (H5N1) (Less Afraid) • West Nile Virus in year two, three…. • Terrorist attacks in Israel • “Regular” Influenza 11. CHILDREN • Plastics in children’s toys • Abduction • Pollution problems in schools 12. PERSONIFICATION • Fear of child abduction rises when there is a specific case in the news • Fear of war rises after we see pictures of the dead and injured • Concern about medical errors increases when we learn of a specific victim of a doctor’s mistake 13. AWARENESS (More Afraid) • Terrorism • Avian flu • Nuclear power (Less Afraid) • Heart disease • Influenza • Fossil fuel pollution New Nuclear Power and Climate Change: Issues and Opportunities Kenneth Hughey Senior Manager, Business Development Entergy Nuclear New Nuclear and its Role in Environmentally Friendly Generation W. Kenneth Hughey Senior Manager, Nuclear Business Development Entergy Nuclear Earth at night NASA A Unique Perspective 38 Our planet today Population ~ 6 Billion Fossil Fuels dominate electricity generation, run factories, power vehicles, heat homes, etc. GHG Emissions (per capita) North America 54 kg Europe & Japan 23 kg China 6 kg 25 Billion Tons Of CO2 Into The Atmosphere Per Year Consumption & Emission Rates Will Increase With Economic Development And Growth To Stabilize GHGs 50% - 75% Reduction in Global Emissions Our next century 50 Years . . . . . Economies Will Grow Developing Countries Will Evolve ~ 9 Billion ~ 6 Billion Energy Demand Population By 2050 Global Energy Consumption Will Double The global challenge It took us 125 years to use the first trillion barrels of oil…We’ll use the next trillion in 30 years The world consumes two barrels of oil for every barrel discovered Oil production is in decline in 33 of the 48 largest oil producing countries www.willyoujoinus.com The global challenge In the Next 50 Years . . . . . More Energy Will Be Consumed Than In All Previous History GHG Emissions Could Double Our Challenge - To Produce Clean Energy On A Global Scale. “Clean Energy” Renewables Solar Biomass Wind Geothermal Renewable Development Must Be Strongly Supported Realistic Perspective – Collective impact will be quite limited – for decades to come. OECD projects less than 3% of world electricity demand at peak. Reality of renewables Want energy from renewables? Add more states! Entergy does not have a crystal ball But we do know World needs more energy Finite supply of conventional oil and gas Stricter environmental regulations America needs energy security/diversity Nuclear energy’s potential is not fully exploited Nuclear: A realistic option? Consider: Nuclear is the largest source of emission-free electric energy Nuclear is among the lowest-cost energy Nuclear fuel costs are stable and a relatively small component of production cost Nuclear’s safety record is second to none The answer is YES! Entergy’s 2-track approach Advanced Light Water Reactor 2005 2010 2015 2020 High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 ESBWR: Design Highlights • 25% Less Equipment Cost Less to build Cost less to operate Greater Safety Margins • Passive Safety Technology No Active Safety Systems Offsite Power Not Required Onsite Power (EDGs) Not Required Operator Action Not Required for 72 hrs • 4500 MWt 1500-1600 The 300-pound gorilla Transportation • Now consumes more than 20% of world’s energy – 28% of total energy in U.S. • By 2010: – India will have 36 times more cars than in 1990 – China will have 91 times more cars than in What’s Nuclear’s role in transportation? 1990 Hydrogen? • In U.S., cars and light trucks are Hydrogen today Source: Salomon Smith Barney, EIA, EPRI World Consumption 45 MM Tons/yr – ~96% Produced by Steam Methane Reforming US Consumption 11 MM – Releases 320 MM tons of CO2/yr Tons/yr – ~96% Produced by SMR – Releases 74 MM tons of CO2/yr – Consumes 5% of US NG Liquid Fuel Production is Supply Rapidly Becoming Major 10% Market forAnnual H2 Growth Ammonia Production (50%) Methanol Production (8%) Other (5%) A bridging market For deployment of nuclear is Oil Refining (37%)