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CONTENT
•Water Management in Turkey
•Studies on Climate Change Impacts Into
Water Resources
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WATER POTENTIAL IN TURKEY
Annual Precipitation
: 501 billion m3
Annual Usable Surface Water
: 98 billion m3
Annual Usable Ground Water
: 14 billion m3
Annual Total Usable Water
: 112 billion m3
Population of Turkey (2010)
: 74 million
Annual Water Amount per person : ~1500 (m3/person-year)
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SECTORAL WATER
CONSUMPTION IN TURKEY
2023
2010
Irrigation
: 34 billion m3 (74%)
Irrigation : 72 billion m3 (%64)
Domestic
: 7 billion m3 (%15)
Domestic : 18 billion m3 (%16)
Industry
: 5 billion m3 (%11)
Industry
: 22 billion m3 (%20)
TOTAL
: 112 billion m3
TOTAL
: 46 billion m3
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WATER RELATED INSTITUTIONS IN TURKEY
( CURRENT STRUCTURE )
MINISTRY OF DEVELOPMENT
PRIME MINISTRY
MINISTRY OF
FORESTRY AND
WATER AFFAIRS
•DG Water
Management
•General Directorate
of Combating
Desertification and
Erosion
•General Directorate
of Nature
Conservation and
National Parks
•GD of SHW
•GD of Forestry
•GD of Meteorology
MINISTRY OF
FOOD,
AGRICULTURE
AND
LIVESTOCK
•General
Directorate of
Agriculture
Reform
•General
Directorate of
Fishery and
Fishery
Products
MINISTRY OF
ENERGY AND
NATURAL
RESOURCES
General
Directorate of
Mineral
Research and
Exploration
MINISTRY OF
ENVIRONMENT
AND
URBANIZATION
• GD of
Environment
Management
• GD of
Enviromental
Impact
Assesment and
Planning
• GD of
Disaster Affairs
MINISTRY OF
INTERNAL
AFFAIRS
•GD of Local
Authorities
•GD of
Provincial
administration
MINISTRY OF
HEALTH
•Presidency of
Sanitation
Centre
MINISTRY OF
CULTURE AND
TOURIZM
GD of Publicity
•Presidency of
Health Group
•GD of Provincial
Bank
•GD of Natural
Heritage
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MAIN DUTY
• Policy development for the protection,
development and usage of water resources
• And to coordinate water management issues
both at national and international scale.
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FIGHTING AGAINST
CLIMATE CHANGE
• Mitigation
– Controlling, decreasing and absorption of
the GHGs
• Adaptation
– The process of combatting against climate
change impacts…
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NEED FOR ADAPTATION
• Even in the case of stopping
all GHG emissions, climate
will continue to change.
To minimize economical, social
and environmental effects and
risks
• Poor people and poverty
areas will mostly be
affected.
• Climate change is a
development problem.
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HOW TO ADAPT?
CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS
ON WATER RESOURCES
PROJECT
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER
RESOURCES
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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON WATER
RESOURCES PROJECT
 Started on 18th December 2013, the project aims
 to determine the impacts of climate change scenarios on surface and
underground water bodies
 to identify the adaptation activities, implementation region based on river
basin districts covering whole Turkey.
 It is envisaged to be completed in July,2016.
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PROJECT STEPS
Climate Projections
Hydrological Modelling
Hydraulic Modelling
Sectoral Vulnerability
Projections for the period
of 2015-2100
Adaptation Measures
ClimaHydro Database
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Projection period:
2015-2100
Reference period:
 1971-2000
HadGEM2S
MPI
IPSL
 3 GCMs and Regional
Climate Model
 RCP4.5 mild scenario
 RCP8.5 severe
scenario
http://iklim.ormansu.gov.tr/
2 hydrological models
are being run:
 SWAT
 WEAP
HecRas
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INTERIM RESULTS
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MPI Model_Mean Temperature
RF ve RCP8.5 Model Results (2015-2100)
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MPI Model_Total Precipitation
RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2100)
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HadGEM2-ES Snow Cover
RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2015-2050)
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HadGEM2-ES Snow Cover
RF ve RCP8.5 Results (2050-2100)
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Projections for “Climate Indices”
Indicator Name
Frost days
Summer days
Cool nights
Cool days
Warm nights
Warm days
Summer days
Diurnal temperature range
Max 5-day precipitation
Max 1-day precipitation
Number of heavy precipitation days
Number of very heavy precipitation days
Number of very heavy precipitation days
Definition
Annual count when TN(daily minimum)<0ºC
Annual count when TX(daily maximum)>25ºC
Percentage of days when TN<10th percentile
Percentage of days when TX<10th percentile
Percentage of days when TN>90th percentile
Percentage of days when TX>90th percentile
Annual count when TX > 25ºC
Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when
TX>90th percentile
Annual count of days with at least 6 consecutive days when
TN<10th percentile
Monthly mean difference between TX and TN
Monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation
Monthly maximum 1-day precipitation
Annual count of days when PR >= 10mm
Annual count of days when PR >= 20mm
Annual count of days when PR >= 25mm
Consecutive dry days
Maximum number of consecutive days with PR < 1mm
Consecutive wet days
Maximum number of consecutive days with PR >= 1mm
Warm spell duration indicator
Cold spell duration indicator
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HadGEM2-ES FD0 Climate Index
RF ve RCP8.5 Number of Frost Days_ 30 years
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HadGEM2-ES Model- CDD Climate Index
RF ve RCP4.5 Number of Consecutive Dry Days_30 years
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Temperature Indices-I
Frost Days
Cold Nights
Cold Days
Cold Air
Wave
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Temperature Indices-II
Summer Days25
Hot
Nights
Hot Days
Heat
Wave
Summer Days35
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Precipitation Indices
1 Day
Max
Precip.
5 Days Max
Precip.
Consecuti
ve Wet
days
Consecutive
Dry Days
Heavy
Precip.Day
Very Heavy
Precip.Day
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Water Potential
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Hydraulic Projections
HecRAS model
For this basin,
3 control cross
sections
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Flow Continuity Projections
Period/Flowr
ate (m3/sec)
%5
Reference
2015-2039
2040-2069
2070-2099
High
Flowrate
(5%)
272
361
353
302
%50
Medium
Flowrate
(50%)
84
107
89
79
Low Flowrate
(95%)
25
25
20
18
%95
Doğu Akdeniz River Basin
Check Point: DAN_037_ KE2921000
HadGEM2-ES_RCP4.5
Flow Continuity Curves
Observed vs Model Comparison
Doğu Akdeniz River Basin
Check Point: DAN_037_ KE3021000
Flow Continuity Projections
At Estuary
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Mean Flowrate at Estuary
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Sectoral Vulnerability
•Preparation of climate change projections
for all river basins in Turkey
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•Determination of groundwater budget
and the change in surface water levels
for all basins
•Running modeling studies for water
budget in all basins
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•Sectoral impaact analysis
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•Domestic water,
•Agriculture,
•Industry,
•Ecosystem
Probable adaptation measures to
be proposed or be obliged::
Soft Measures
Flood Management Plans
Drought Management Plans
Grey water incentives
Good agricultural practices
Crop incentives
Hard Measures
Rainwater harvesting
Flood protection measures
Gradual decrease in distribution
network losses
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Last Words..
• Climate Risk Management is vital in order to
adapt.
• Best adaptation measures are based on
reliable impact and sectoral vulnerability
analysis.
• Climate change projections should be
integrated at all levels of planning studies.
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Thank you for your attention
Ayse Y. COSGUN
[email protected]
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