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Drought Management and Mitigation in the Caucasus and Central Asia: A Synthesis of Survey and Field Work in Support of Planning Mike Thurman Consultant World Bank ECSSD Phase Two Activities Regional Vulnerability and Capacity Assessment Stakeholder Assessment Dissemination to stakeholders Dissemination within World Bank Typologies of Drought Conditions and Impacts Prolonged absence of precipitation Higher temperatures Climate change Decrease of the water levels in rivers and lower groundwater levels Shortage of water for irrigation, household, and hydropower needs Lower crop yields and livestock productivity Increased labor and input costs Lost income Hunger and poor health Emigration Emotional and psychological stress Water pollution Soil degradation Deforestation Desertification Deterioration of buildings and infrastructure Fieldwork Sites Average precipitation varies between 150 mm (Gijduvan District, Uzbekistan) and 900-1700 mm (Sakhere District, Goergia). In all areas, participants stated that (from their perspective) drought strikes as often as “every 2-3 years with changing intensity,” “10 [times] since 1990.” Operative, site-specific definitions most useful in planning Exposure: Climate Change and Prognosis More work need concerning precipitation and water resources Country assessments sometimes inconsistent: need regional harmonization Second Initial Communication Vulnerability Before and After 1991 Subsidies to drought-prone areas before 1991 Mitigation measures before 1991 Economic downturn: finance gap, new entrants into agriculture sector, many mitigation measures discontinued Reforms in agriculture and water management Capacity: Community Participation Most communities uninvolved in early warning Institutions are lacking or else are not mandated to provide early warning and relief Some stakeholders would prefer to participate and manage and much as possible Some stakeholders remain dependent upon the local government Capacity: Planning Many specializations required: need to integrate the planning process Need to constantly update plans and maintain focus Need for operational definitions and specific “triggers” for responses