Download Influencing Energy Efficiency with Spatial

Influencing Energy Efficiency with
Spatial Analysis
SSI REGIONAL CONFERENCE 2008
24 July 2008
Dr Ray Wills
CEO, WA Sustainable Energy Association
Future Smart Strategies
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
Welcome to country
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The Noongar divide the year into 6 distinct seasons that
corresponded with moving to different habitats and feeding
patterns based on seasonal foods.
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Birak
- December/January
Bunuru
- February/March
Djeran
- April/May
Makuru
- June/July
Djilba
- August/September
Kambarang
- October/November
Sustainability
Sustainability
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Key attributes include:
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Dealing transparently and systemically with risk,
uncertainty and irreversibility.
Integration of environmental, social, human and
economic goals in policies and activities.
Ensuring inter-generational equity.
A commitment to best practice.
No net loss of human capital or natural capital.
The principle of continuous improvement.
The need for good governance.
Energy efficiency and renewable options
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Climate change is a potential risk and cost issue for the ill prepared.
Many opportunities - opportunities to increase
energy efficiency, reduce costs, and reduce
greenhouse emissions through the use of new
technology available in the renewable industry.
Waste industry regularly utilises some of these
technologies - but there are many more valuable
options to explore.
But first some (geospatially-related) science.
Greenhouse and global warming
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Greenhouse theory
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Anthropogenic global warming theory late 1960’s
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Basis first proposed by in 1824
Greenhouse = earth’s “blanket” average temperature about 15°C; otherwise would be -18°C
UN and IMO lead debate late 1979
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change formed 1988
Rio 1992, Kyoto 1997 …
Warming of climate is now unequivocal – global
increases in air and ocean temperatures, melting of
snow and ice, and rising sea level.
The enhanced greenhouse effect is not hypothesis empirically and theoretically well-established.
Instrumental record - temperature
About WA
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Annual inflow to Perth dams dropped from 338 GL to 114 GL
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Source: Water Corporation 2007.
About WA
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A warming of 1.0°C is sufficient to move climate belts about
150 km south. A regional temperature change of 2 °C likely
to have a serious impact on most life forms, and on most
ecosystems and agricultural areas.
Changes by 2040
About WA
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Climate change is arguably the most important key
threatening process to all biota.
Biota in narrow climatic bands are likely to suffer
changes in the patterns of distribution and abundance
of a range of species.
Impacts both direct - climate affecting plant species
establishment and persistence, and indirect - climate
impacting bushfire regimes or increased summer
rainfall increasing the spread of dieback.
Rise of 2ºC results in loss of 66% of Dryandra species,
41% of Australian eucalyptus species (including many
WA species), and 100% of Acacia species.
Similar studies for fauna - all frog and mammal species
About WA
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With global warming and
drying of the south coast in
WA, areas with temperature
increases > 2° C combined
with a decline in rainfall
consistently below 400 mm
will lead to the loss of many
species of Proteaceae in
WA's SW.
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It is likely the iconic Banksia
and Dryandra will die out.
So too will the animals that
live on them.
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About WA
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Climate is key determinant for your garden - changes
in climate will impact on
what will grow.
About WA
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Climate is key determinant of agriculture - changes
in climate will impact on crops and livestock.
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Rising temperatures will cause a shift in budburst,
shorter growing seasons, earlier harvest dates,
lower crop quality, changes in soil temperatures.
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Wheat growing areas in SW WA seriously impacted
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Northern wheatbelt likely to disappear, south reduced.
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Wipes out most of an industry worth more than $2 billion.
Climate is a key influence in grape selection.
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Shifting rainfall patterns and drier conditions will change the way
vineyards operate and reduce the wine crop.
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WA produces around 5% of all Australian wine, about 25% of wine in
super-premium and ultra-premium categories.
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 1m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Sea level changes
Mandurah
at 7m sea
level rise
Courtesy of WA Sustainable Energy Association
Evidence of global warming
Sea level changes
Global changes
http://www.igbp.kva.se//uploads/ESO_IGBP4.pdf
Economic risk of change
Climate
Risk
Sector Level
Political /
Regulatory
Physical Risk
Supply Chain
Company Level
Staff
Litigation
Reputation /
Brand
Products /
Technology
Responding to climate change
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The threat of dangerous climate change is not just an
environmental issue - underscores the need to build a
sustainable economy.
An effective response will change the way we use
energy and in so doing, future proof our economy.
Action by government, business and the community
must put in place measures that
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reduce unnecessary use;
promote energy efficiency across life cycles;
reduce our reliance on increasingly expensive traditional
fuels; and
promote the production of energy through renewable
generation.
Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007
Responding to climate change
ABS STATISTICAL INDICATORS - WA • 1367.5 • JUN 2007
Energy - and networks
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Fossil fuel prices will continue to push up inflation, but
renewable energy will continue to shine on us, to wash
up on our shores, and to blow past us without
additional cost.
Australia is the Middle East of renewable energy and
we are failing to harvest the energy bonanza for the
benefit of the Australian economy and especially for
Australia’s export industries.
We need to plan the networks, strategically place the
infrastructure - in the next 12 years building toward a
20% renewable energy target.
Inflation
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A sustainable way to fight inflation is deliver energy
efficiency in all things that result in long term energy
savings and
reduce
inflationary
pressures that
would otherwise
impact on
the CPI
Renewable energy generation
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Spatial relationships
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Resource distribution - wind, solar, wave,
geothermal resource
Biomass productivity
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Renewable energy in Western Australia
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Hydro
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30 MW hydro power station on the Ord River dam owned and
operated by Pacific Hydro.
Wave energy technology
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WA wave power resource.
Carnegie Corporation
technology in Fremantle.
CETO 2 prototype unit
deployed January 2008
and has performed as
expected.
Renewable energy in Western Australia
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Wind Farms
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Alinta Walkaway - 54 x 1650kW wind turbines - total capacity of
90MW.
Transfield Services and Griffin Energy Emu Downs - 48 x 1650kW
turbines - total capacity of 80MW.
Verve Energy Albany - 12 x 1800 kW wind turbines - total capacity of
21MW
Verve Energy Esperance - first commercial sized wind farm built in
Australia – 9 x 225 kW turbines, now combined with a second wind
farm of 6 x 600kW turbines
Verve Energy wind-diesel project at Denham – 3 x 230 kW variable
speed turbines provide up to 90% of electricity supply.
Verve Energy also owns/operates 600kW wind/diesel systems at
Hopetoun, Bremer Bay and has installed a system on Rottnest Island
for Rottnest Island Authority.
Wind
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Spatial relationships
Renewable energy in Western Australia
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Biomass
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Various biomass applications mainly utilising landfill gas,
wastewater and bagasse.
Landfill gas - total installed capacity of the stations is around
24MW.
Water Corporation's Woodman Point wastewater treatment
plant uses biogas for 2 x 600 kW reciprocating engine
generator sets, provides electricity for use on site with the
excess exported to the grid. Waste heat from the engines is
also recovered and used for optimising digester temperature.
Bagasse, the cane residue from sugar production, is
combusted at the Ord Sugar Mill at Kununurra in the
Kimberley to produce steam to run a 6 MW cogeneration
plant.
Renewable energy in Western Australia
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Solar Energy - Photovoltaics (PV)
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Grid-connected and stand alone power systems for remote
telecommunications infrastructure and water pumping
systems. PV modules also in many niche applications,
including emergency telephones, street and other outdoor
lighting, and marine navigation buoys.
Verve Energy owns/operates Australia's first large 20 kW
tracking, grid connected PV system located at Kalbarri.
Verve Energy 20 kW photovoltaic trough concentrator system
at the Rockingham Campus of Murdoch University.
WA Department of Corrective Services - largest off-grid PV
system - a 32 kW system at Mount Morgan work camp.
Hamersley Iron Pty Ltd at Hamersley Station 31kW hybrid
solar PV/diesel system
Solar thermal
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Low-Temperature Collectors
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Medium-Temperature Collectors
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Used for space/water heating
Heat swimming pools
Industrial - salt production in
salt farms!
Hot water needed for residential
and commercial use
High-Temperature Collectors:
Concentrated solar power
Heat storage
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Heat storage allows a solar thermal
plant to produce energy at night or
overcast days - principle is to transfer the heat to a substance
(molten salt, silcon phase change products, pressurized steam)
which can hold the heat with a high energy density.
Potential for geothermals
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Geothermal installations tap heat either for electrical generation or
direct use of the heat.
Around 8000MW of electrical generating capacity has been installed in
24 countries worldwide
About 15,000 MW direct heat applications in 71 countries for residential
or commercial sectors - space/water heating, laundries, textile
processes, greenhouse/aquaculture, food dehydration.
Most in geologically active areas - shallow upwellings of molten rock
interact with groundwater, create pressurised hot springs or geysers.
Australia’s relative geological stability means there are no foreseeable
applications for ‘hydrothermal’ power station in Australia.
Since mid 2004, four of the five pools at Challenge Stadium heated
using geothermal energy.
Emerging geothermal - Hot Dry Rock or Enhanced Geothermal
Systems - 1 cubic KM at 200°C produces 10 MW for 20 years.
Geoscience Australia estimate more than 1.2 mllion petajoules - 20 000
x Australia’s primary energy use.
Potential for geothermals - WA
Exploration and development
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Low temperature
<150°C
High temperature
>150°C
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Commercial production
of electricity
High geothermal
gradients than normal
(17─35°C/km) indicate
high heat flow
Gradients >35°C/km
are present in Western
Australia
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20
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60
80
100
120
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500
1000
1500
Depth (m)
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Geothermal Gradient (oC/km)
2000
2500
3000
3500
Basins
Canning
Carnarvon
Perth
4000
4500
5000
Normal
High
Ameed Ghori - Geol Survey, DOIR
Responding to climate change
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Responding to climate change will create
opportunities, establish new businesses, and create
new jobs.
Renewable energy generation is generally more labour
intensive, and more broadly distributed across regions.
With a better employment factor, renewable energy
projects can lead to growth of local communities in
rural WA.
Any economic analysis must fully assess the benefits
to the community – that’s a part of sustainability.
Regional efficiencies
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Linking skills.
Engaging communities.
Developing responses.
Economic models and paradigms
www.greenhouse.wa.gov.au/ documents/EGWAGO15.8.2005_000.pdf
Economic models and paradigms
Energy efficiency and complimentarity
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Networks
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Parallels between infrastructure networks
(including transportation and utilities) and
communication networks.
Complexities of networks share factors such
as the complementarity of the transportation
and communication systems, the relationship
between infrastructures and the
vehicles/commodities using them, and the
issue of standardization.
Integration and joined up thinking
Transport networks and management improved energy efficient in fleet and
domestic
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Energy efficiency and industry
Energy efficiency and transport
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Networks
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Parallels between infrastructure
networks (including transportation
and utilities) and communication
networks.
Complexities of networks share factors
such as the complementarity of the
transportation and communication systems,
the relationship between infrastructures and
the vehicles/commodities using them, and the
issue of standardization.
Integration and joined up thinking
Transport networks and management improved energy efficient in fleet and
domestic.
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Carbon accounting
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Carbon asset register
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Measure, monitor, audit, verify
Carbon accumulation.
Transparency and security.
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Responding to climate change
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2 Million every 5 minutes
Recent news
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/
Renewables
More recent news
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Gore Calls for Carbon-Free Electric Power
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By DAVID STOUT, The New York Times Published: July 18, 2008
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WASHINGTON — Former Vice President Al Gore said on
Thursday that Americans must abandon electricity
generated by fossil fuels within a decade and rely on the
sun, the winds and other environmentally friendly sources of
power, or risk losing their national security as well as their
creature comforts.
“The survival of the United States of America as we know it
is at risk,” Mr. Gore said in a speech to an energy
conference here. “The future of human civilization is at
stake.”
Audacious targets
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Wills Calls for Carbon-Free Electric Power
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Right here, right now: July 24, 2008
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Using the Al Gore challenge, replacing all of Australia’s
electricity generation of around 45 gigawatts capacity would
require an investment in the order of $200 billion.
A date of 2020 to achieve the goal, spread over 12 years
would be a figure of about $17 billion per year – less than
the Federal Government’s budget surplus.
Funds arising from an emissions trading market that will
probably have a total annual value less than $12-15 billion
could be the source of government funding for such a plan –
although this number would fall as we built renewable
energy generation because under this plan ultimately there
would be no emissions from power generation.
Audacious targets
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Wills calls for a new universal translator
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Right here, right now: July 24, 2008
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What is the next disruptive technology - the ipod (iphone) for
sustainability.
Live, real-time, verbally driven, on the fly, spatially aware,
automatically updated, push/pull data feeds on a graphic mobile
device.
(Did I mention free?)
The tricorder from Star Trek - wave it
around, let it make an odd whistling
sound for a few seconds, and it could
quantify almost anything, from the
presence of nearby life forms to the
chemical composition of a particular
rock.
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Responding to climate change
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Loopt - mobile social mapping
application.
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Using mobile devices - displays GPS and
related data of a user’s friends visually on
maps or on lists.
Users can request alerts when friends are
within a certain distance, send messages to
groups of friends in particular area, and be
able to tag and blog physical locations in a
way that’s accessible to friends through
Loopt.
Users can also take pictures from their cell
phones and tag them; these pictures will be
available to friends and others on the Loopt
network.
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WA SEA –
WA’s peak body for sustainable energy
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WA SEA Members - developing and adopting
technologies and services that minimise energy use
through sustainable energy practices and maximising
energy use from sustainable sources.
Our members are the business part of the solution to
climate change. Join us and make a difference…
The inconvenient truth - time has run out
for solutions that are simply convenient.
Dr Ray Wills
WA Sustainable Energy Association
[email protected]
Future Smart Strategies
[email protected]
School of Earth and Geographical Sciences,
The University of Western Australia
[email protected]