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Climate Change and Adaptation Strategies The Italian Case Valentino Piana Speech delivered in Ankara, 19th November 2009 Contents 1. A simple scheme of climate change 2. The challenge of climate change in Italy 3. Seventeen likely impacts of climate change 4. The families of adaptation strategies 4.1. Framework strategies 4.2. Strategies to strengthen local response by protecting key assets 4.3. Strategies for the rapid system-wide intervention 4.4. Saving and substituting scarcer resources 5. Conclusions www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 1. A simple scheme of climate change Density/Value www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting Additional stressors Our adaption from Isoard, Grothmann and Zebisch, 2008. 2. The challenge of climate change in Italy 1 Perceived as a long-term and remote phenomenon 2 Low priority in economic and political terms 3 Specific aspects of climate change overemphasised while others neglected 44 Scattered competences 45 Framed by other issues, not framing other issues www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 2. The challenge of climate change in Italy exacerbates existing problems Climate change generates entirely new ones It provokes widely differentiated effects in term of timing (immediate, medium-term and long-term) and in terms of geographical areas and economic sectors. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 3. Seventeen likely impacts of climate change Alpine region Hydro-geological vulnerable zones Coastal zones Polluted urban centres hit by heat waves Water scarsity and desertification www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4. The families of adaptation strategies 4.1. Framework strategies 4.2. Strategies to strengthen local response by protecting key assets 4.3. Strategies for the rapid sistem-wide intervention 4.4. Saving and substituting scarcer resources www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.1. Framework strategies Definition Coherent and extensive list of measures, expliciting objectives, stakeholders, activities, budget and responsibilities Coverage All the country, identifying areas at risks, establishing priorities and balances PROS Systemic approach Full coverage of issues No surprises International comparability Examples CONS Long consultations Difficulties in agreement High total costs foreseen for action Risk to receive funding only for the process, not for the measures National Adaptation Strategy, National Program for the Fight to Drought and Desertification www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.1. Framework strategies 1 National Adaptation Strategy Source: PEER (2009) Italy is going to lay down a National Adaptation Strategy www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.1. Framework strategies 2 National Program for the Fight to Drought and Desertification Legal foundation Kind of intervention CIPE deliberation n. 229 - 21st December 1999 It provides a framework for regional intervention, use of European Funds and for sectoral planning. Example of direct activities Workshops, awareness raising events Costs 0.5 millions Euro in 2001 www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.2. Strategies to strengthen local resilience by protecting key assets Definition Coverage Concentrated efforts to protect small areas from specific risks Key assets, as historical cities, highly profitable human activities, etc. PROS Effective in the area and for the problem under focus Mobilization of resources Interest of solution providers Examples CONS Possible negative externalities outside the area and on other environmental aspects High cost per square km Difficult to replicate for nonhuman ecosystems and for nonhighly profitable activities MOSE Project in Venise www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.2. Strategies to strengthen local resilience by protecting key assets MOSE Project in Venise Problem Sea level rising and floods in Venice Kind of intervention Massive infrastructure and complex works. Timing Extreme weather event in 1966 giving rise to a long debate on solutions. Project presented in 1981. After criticisms, a new version presented in 1989. First financial commitment in 2002. First stone in 2003. On-going contentious issue. Expected completion: 2012-2014. Costs Estimated €4,272 million, committed 3240 millions. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.3. Strategies for the rapid system-wide intervention Definition Coverage Monitoring and alert system with well-defined procedure of mobilization on-site and from all over the country(ies) Disaster-prone areas, hit or at immediate risk PROS Wide ex-ante coverage Effective mobilization Solidarity across country(ies) Disaster impact reduction Levelled off expenditure over time Insurance-like effects Examples CONS Highly demanding in central and local competences Raising awareness of risks (sometimes excessively) Keep resources always allocated Civil defence system www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.3. Strategies for the rapid sistem-wide intervention Civil defence system Legal foundation National Law 225 - 24th February 1992, modified by the Constitutional Law n. 3 - 18th October 2001 Kind of intervention Integrated multi-level system where not only a centralized “military-like” body is ready to enter into action, but local-level units of volunteers and several bodies responds to mayors and higher-level political responsible people. Activities Monitoring the structural conditions of vulnerability, alert about the possibilty of disaster of a wide range of sources (fire, floods, landslides) and immediate reaction Participating bodies Departments under the national and regional governments, army, fire brigades, forestry militia, Red Cross, national healthcare system, citizen organizations, etc. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.4. Saving and substituting scarcer resources Definition Coverage Behavioural, technological and infrastructural change to reduce inputs in production and consumption Water, energy, soil PROS Potential profitability due to savings Homogeneity and standardization of solutions Fast implementation, at least In principle Examples CONS Underestimation of rigidities in habits and technological lock-ins Economic instruments (e.g. higher price of the resource) not always effective and politically feasible They may require further R&D Basin and Regional plans for saving water www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 4.4. Saving and substituting scarcer resources Regional plans for saving water Legal foundation Kind of intervention Participating bodies Water Framework Directive 2000/60/EU; National Law 13/2009; Regional Development plans Multi-yearly program of extraordinary and ordinary maintenance of water pipelines, agreements with trade associations to spread technologies, pilot project of new technologies, educational programs for population and children, price modifications National and regional authorities, water basin authorities, schools www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting 5. Conclusions Climate change is now and for the future, probably faster than many policymakers expect. Planning and executing adaptation measures can be long and difficult. Italy is moving from a reactive to a pro-active approach and is keen to exchanges of experience with all countries of the Mediterranean Sea. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting For further information and support feel free to contact us! Valentino Piana <[email protected]> Mobile phone: +39 349 36 10 476 Thank you for your kind attention. www.economicswebinstitute.org Cutting-edge research & implementation consulting